Been there, done that. Do not repeat the mistakes of the 2007 Annapolis Conference on the Arab-Israel conflict, then seen as a hopeful breakthroogh and now dead and buried.
President Trump should not allow the euphoria that swept the world following the 27 November 2007 Annapolis Conference to infect the Manama Conference being jointly hosted by himself and Bahrain on 25-26 June.
Yet his just released 40 page document “Peace to Prosperity” threatens to do just this – offering US$6.5 billion in Grant and Equity Funding and Concessional Funding to carry out a variety of programs in Judea and Samarai (aka ‘West Bank’) and Gaza including:
- Starting Equity-Matching and Lending Facilities
- Border Crossing Points Upgrade
- Power Plant Upgrades
- Tourism Lending Facility and Site Rehabilitation
- New Palestinian University
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s closing remarks at Annapolis were brimming with hope:
“The conference began with the joint announcement by Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas that they will begin negotiations to establish a Palestinian state and to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace with the goal of concluding an agreement by the end of the year 2008”
Under their Joint Understanding Olmert and Abbas committed:
“…to immediately implement their respective obligations under the Performance-Based Road Map to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestinian Conflict, issued by the Quartet on 30 April 2003 (hereinafter, “the Roadmap”) and agree to form an American, Palestinian and Israeli mechanism, led by the United States, to follow up on the implementation of the Roadmap”
Conference attendees included:
- Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
- Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
- President Bush
and representatives from:
- Quartet members – United Nations, European Union and Russia
- Organization of Islamic Cooperation
- Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen
- 30 other States including Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
A follow-up Donors’ Conference was held in Paris on 17 December 2007. Delegations from 87 countries and international organizations pledged a total of US$7.4 billion to support Palestinian institution-building and economic recovery for the next three years. Of this amount, US$3.4 Billion was pledged for 2008. This amount included:
“…humanitarian assistance, which was essential to help relieve the daily lives of the Palestinian population,
The International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Economy for the Reconstruction of Gaza
was held in Sharm El-Sheikh on 2 March 2009. Participants pledged approximately US$4.48 billion covering the next two years and committed to:
“…start disbursing these pledges as quickly as possible in order to rapidly impact the daily lives of the Palestinians.”
Pouring US$12 billion into Gaza and the ‘West Bank’ did not relieve or impact the daily lives of Gaza and the ‘West Bank’ Arab populations.
The promised “Permanent Two-State solution” is now dead and buried.
Trump’s proposed US$6.5 billion spend will not improve the daily lives of these captive populations still being governed by their 2007 rulers – Hamas and the Palestine Liberation Organization – who remain divided and confrontational.
Trump should use his US$6.5 billion to:
- Fund new residential and infrastructure programs in neighbouring countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia and
- Encourage the legal migration of ‘West Bank’ and Gazan Arabs to such countries by offering them financial incentives to help them achieve prosperity and a better life for themselves and their families.
Manama Conference invitees will reportedly not include Israel.
Mahmoud Abbas has refused to attend. Hamas has rejected the conference being held. Both want nothing to do with America.
The Manama Conference should not continue pouring billions of dollars into these bottomless pits of misery and despair ruled by groups who will:
- not allow free elections and
- never recognize Israel as the national home of the Jewish people
Manama 2019 should not repeat the mistakes of Annapolis, Paris and Sharm El-Sheikh 2007-2009.
Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog
@ Bear Klein:It moves the needle away from the Arab Peace Plan and the Clinton/Obama parameters.
Definitely, and a good thing, too.
Trump is sophisticated enough so that he and Kushner already know this.
Positve results from the Trump ‘deal of the century:” It will demonstrate to many Congressmen and “ordinary” voters that there is no way that the present Palestinian leadership will ever make peace with Israel. Even a massive bribe offer couldn’t influence the. Also, some of the more rational European leaders will grasp this. Maybe even the Russians.
I still think that some Palestinian businessmen and professionals will be interested in getting their hands on that money, or even sharing it with the “ordinary” Palestinians. Money talks in the Arab world. Sometimes even louder than ideology. It would be in their interest to orchestrate coups against Fatah and Hamas. They would need a lot of help from the Mossad, Shabak and/or the CIA. But maybe this kind of “technical” help to enable Palestinian “dissidents” to seize power from Fatah and Hamas could be arranged. The U.S. has carried out such “covert operations” before and succeeded (Guatemala, 1954; Iran, 1953).
Palestinian loyal to Israel? Extremely unlikely. Palestinians who have lost interest in fighting Israel, and have opted for the good life instead? Somewhat more likely.
Trump is not counting on this. But he thinks it is a good idea to lay the groundwork for it possibly happening some time in the future. There is nothing to lose by trying–unless he gives the money to Hamas or Fatah. But I am confident he won’t do that.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Comedy Central win the hearts and minds of Arab Muslims who are raised to raised to believe Jews are descendants of Apes and Monkeys. They will then become Zionists.
Sorry to laugh. They might kill Abbas or each other but be loyal to Israel?
Yes destroying the terrorists regimes and booting out the PA and PLO at the end of day will get some Arabs to reconcile to the fact that it is better to work and feed their families than fight Israel. Many do that now but that does not mean they will be loyal to Israel. Maybe in the long long run a few in a small minority just like there are Israeli Arabs who are now loyal to the State of Israel.
None of this has anything to do with the pie in sky Trump (Kushner peace proposal).
Bear,There is no question that there are a lot of really dad dudes in Judea-Samaria and Gaza. The regimes there have been training their people to be terrorists and bad dudes for 100 years. But in spite of that, I believe that a majority of the Arab inhabitants are not terrorists and are becoming restless at being ruled by terrorists who are also crooks and racketeers.If Israel and the United States both imposed harsh sanctions on the terrorists–inluding tough military strikes by Israel, and tough economic sanctions by both countries– and this was continued for several years, including the U.S. vetoing any continued “mandate” for UNWRA in the UN Security Council–the majority of the Pals would come over to Israel’s side and joyfully massacre, or at least expel, their terrorist rulers.
Lyndon Johnson explained this process when he said, ‘first grab them by the balls. Then their hearts and minds will follow.”
Violent Reality in Judea/Samaria NOW:
@ Adam Dalgliesh: The only potential good thing about this proposal it is showing to Trump that the Pals are intransigent even when offered the potential good life. It moves the needle away from the Arab Peace Plan and the Clinton/Obama parameters.
It will move things closer to Israel taking unilateral actions and applying its civil law to Area C of Judea/Samaria. It will not change who the Pal-Arabs are and what they want the destruction of Israel.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, The aspect of the the Trump-Kushner policy that I don’t think you’ve grasped is that they think it is possible that a carrot-and-stick approach by the U.S. may encourage “ordinary” Palestinian Arabs to rebel and against theeir Fatah and Hamas rulers, with mass demonstrations, riots, etc., leading the hard-core Fatahniks and Hamasniks, Islamic Jidadniks, etc., to take the money and run, and opening the way for a new leadership that doesn’t have terrorist connections and is willing to play ball with Israel.
They are hoping (although not counting on it) that if the u>S. stands firm in offering them a lot of money in return for cooperating with Israel, but giving them nothing if they don’t, a majority of “ordinary” people,f the “Arab street” in Judea-Samaria and Gaza will rebel against their terrorist rulers and elect or otherwise install a leadership willing to accept the broad outlines of the Trump-Kusher “deal.”
While we don’t know the details of the political aspect of the “deal,” it seems to involve Israeli security control over Yesha (Sudea-Samaria and Gaza), along with a self-governing (not necessarily 100 per cent independent) Palestinian state that will be under the effective security control of Israel.
THere is a rational basis, I think, for a possible post-terrorist, nonviolent future Palestinian leadership sometime in the future. While the Palestinians have been brainwashed into accepting an anti-Israel, antisemitic “narrative ” for the past hundred years, such narratives have sometimes lost their credibility and potency even among people who have been indoctrinated with them, when they begin to notice that these narratives have not done them any good, and have not achieved their promised goals. Th prime example is the Soviet Union. Despite seventy years of being brainwashed to love “socialism,” the Russian people eventually lost their faith in it. In the end, the Communist state was overthrown after only a few days of street-fighting in Moscow in 1991. People had by that time realized that the Communist paradise promised them hadn’t happened and never would. Seventy years of propaganda lost its ability to fool them any longer.
Is it possible that the Arabs of Eretz Israel will someday rebel against the “Palestinian” narrative, the same way that the Russians rebelled against the Communist narrative. I think it is possible. Some Palestinian Arabs have already realized that this narrative has enabled their leaders to amass vast wealth at their expense, while they remain poor, and subject to constant extortion by terrorist gangs. They may also begin to realize that the promised “liberation” of Palestine “from the river to the sea” and the destruction of the “Zionist entity” ain’t going to happen. Then they may get the idea that if they drove the terrorists back into “exile” and began to play ball with Israel, their lives would improve.
Bahrain Meeting appears to be failure.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/opening-bahrain-workshop-kushner-says-economic-progress-a-precondition-to-peace/
Don’t Israpunditeers have anything better to do, than to endlessly discuss peace proposals that have zero chance of ever amounting to anything?
How about some kosher recipes that aren’t all salt and actually taste good? (affordable ones would also be a plus)
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Adam I am a complete realist on the likelihood of rab answers to peace proposals. This is the prior results:
1897: No
1917: No
1947: No
1948: War
1949: No
1956: War
1967: War
1973: War
1978: No
1982: No
1991: Probably not.
1995: We’ll agree to wait to say no later
1999: No, Intifada
2005: No
2009: We’re not even gonna answer
2015: No
2019: All rejected it. Just some blury eyed do not want to recognize this.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:There are individual Pal-Arabs who are realists and recognize that it is better to do business with Israel than war. I have experienced this personally. Do not confuse that with which side of the conflict these people are on.
Name ONE Pal-Arab organization with any clout that does not want to Israel destroyed?
@ Bear Klein:Bear, I think that Trump’s more optimistic view is on the whole also more realistic than your absolute pessimism. You are definitely correct that the hard-core Fatahniks and Hamasniks will never make peace with Israel. But not every last Palestinian is an activist with these or the other Palestinian terrorist groups. It is gradually becoming clear that there are some businessmen and professionals in Judea, Samaria, and even Gaza who have begun to have doubts about the “traditional” Palestinian narrative that Israel is evil and must be destroyed. Trump’s hope is that if America persists in an economic boycott of the terrorist regimes, and advises/pressures the Gulf states to do the same, while promising the Palestinian Arab “man in the street” very substantial financial rewards if they overthrow the terrorists, the majority of Palestinians in Yesha (Gaza, Judea and Samaria) will someday overthrow their terrorist rulers and ielect a new government of genuinely moderate businessmen and professionals who will be prepared to end the conflict, in return for massive financial aid from the u.S. and the Gulf states.
If Israel joins the US in this economic boycott of the terrorist regimes (so far it has not), I think there is a possibility that this strategy may work eventually. It is worth a try.
Why should my post be “awaiting moderation?”
@ Bear Klein:Bear, I think that Trump’s more optimistic view is on the whole also more realistic than your absolute pessimism. You are definitely correct that the hard-core Fatahniks and Hamasniks will never make peace with Israel. But not every last Palestinian is an activist with these or the other Palestinian terrorist groups. It is gradually becoming clear that there are some businessmen and professionals in Judea, Samaria, and even Gaza who have begun to have doubts about the “traditional” Palestinian narrative that Israel is evil and must be destroyed. Trump’s hope is that if America persists in an economic boycott of the terrorist regimes, and advises/pressures the Gulf states to do the same, while promising the Palestinian Arab “man in the street” very substantial financial rewards if they overthrow the terrorists, the majority of Palestinians in Yesha (Gaza, Judea and Samaria) will someday overthrow their terrorist rulers and ielect a new government of genuinely moderate businessmen and professionals who will be prepared to end the conflict, in return for massive financial aid from the u.S. and the Gulf states.
If Israel joins the US in this economic boycott of the terrorist regimes (so far it has not), I think there is a possibility that this strategy may work eventually. It is worth a try.
Jason Greenblatt said the following:
As Trump plan unravels because of Pal strong and likely violent resistance to it the logical question is what comes next.
Kushner and Greenblatt are starting to signal strongly that they realize that their peace plan is going nowhere.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Sorry, it is not a long shot. It means he does not understand the nature of the conflict with the Pal-Arabs who are raised to believe that Israel stole their land and zero history rights to the land.
Not ONE Pal-Organization wants anything other than the destruction of all of Israel. The Pals want help from anyone who can help them destroy Israel and not how to make peace with it.
I think that most people don’t understand Trump’s strategy in regard to the economic part of the “Deal of the Century.” Trump knows that Abbas and the Fatah organization won’t accept the plan. But he is hoping that some time in the future, if the u.S. continues its economic sanctions against the PLO, Fatah may fall from power and be replaced by a regime led by Palestinian businessmen willing to deal with Israel and withdraw support for terror attacks. One evidence that this is Trump’s strategy is that Jason Greenblatt warmly welcomed a young man named Jabari, who has announced his candidacy for the Palestinian Presidency to an economic conference of Israeli and Arab businessmen in Israel that Greenblatt had organized. Greenblatt addressed Jabari as “my friend” and praised his courage in attending (Fatah has publicly threatened to kill him and anyone would dare vote for him in flyers that they have distributed in Hebron, where Jabari lives). This young man, whose name I forget, is a member of the Jabari clan from the Hebron area,
which has long maintained a friendly relationship with the Jewish communities in the Hebron area, and has been more or less openly pro-Israel.
The Israeli government as well as a large private Israeli company which was recently bought by a larger American company, held another public conference in Israel recently that was attended by many Palestinian businessmen and engineers. Perhaps coordinated with Trump.
There was also another Palestinian businessman who defied the orders of Abbas and Fatah and announced that he was attending the Bahrain conference. Abbas and his own clan denounced him, and accused him of being a long-time collaborator with Israel who actually had lived in Israel for many years to escape being put to death by Fatah.
Trump’s hope is if the uS persists in its tough sanctions against the Fatah regime, while publicizing his offer to give massive economic aid to the Palestinians if they agree to make peace with Israel, that a Palestinian ” silent majority” will some day overthrow Fatah and elect someone like Jabari as the President of the “Palestinian Authority,” or whatever you want to call it, and opt to take the money and make peace. Yes, it a long shot. But Trump thinks, “why not give it a try?” If the Palestinians never respond favorably, nothing will be lost. And there is an offside chance that “ordinary” Palestinians will tire of their own corrupt, oppessive rulers and accept Trump’s and the Gulf States, generous offer.
I throw money at the problem. Democratic solution proposed by a Republican? Throwing money down a rat hole it’s more like it.
The money should be used to build them homes anywhere OUTSIDE OF ISRAEL. Give them each money to LEAVE.
Let Jews build in J&S, support Jewish businesses in J&S…. no hiring Arabs, no medical care for Arabs in Israel, no free electricity or water, and absolutely no incentives for them to stay here. We want them to LEAVE.
This is the only formula for peace in Israel.
Mr. Singer is correct do not waste money into bottomless terrorist pits. Do things the incentive the emigration of Pal-Arabs from Gaza and Judea/Samaria plus eastern Jerusalem.