The upcoming meeting of US, Russian and Israeli national security advisers in Israel has taken on added significance as once-concealed disagreements between Russia and Iran move out into the open.
Hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced in the latest attacks by Syrian and Russian forces on the northern region of Idlib in Syria. Those forces have not shied away from targeting hospitals and residential areas.
In what may be marching orders for his national security adviser, John Bolton, US President Donald Trump tweeted last week: “Hearing word that Russia, Syria and, to a lesser extent, Iran, are bombing the hell out of Idlib Province in Syria, and indiscriminately killing many innocent civilians. The World is watching this butchery. What is the purpose, what will it get you? STOP!”
While few expect the advisors’ meeting this month in Jerusalem to produce immediate results, American and Israeli officials hope that it could prepare the ground for a deal that would further weaken Russian ties to Iran and reduce, if not terminate, Iran’s presence in Syria.
Among multiple scenarios being bounced around, some analysts believe a possible deal could involve Russia pushing Iran out of Syria, a key US and Israeli demand, in exchange for the lifting of at least some American and European sanctions against Russia and US acceptance of the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a similar Russian proposal last November.
“The fact that the Russians see value in these conversations, that they’re willing to do it publicly, I think is in and of itself quite significant. And so we are hopeful that they’re coming to the meeting with some fresh proposals that will allow us to make progress,” said a senior Trump administration official.
The officials suggest that a recent Russian refusal to sell Iran its most advanced S-400 missile defense system because it could fuel regional tensions, as well as tacit Russian acquiescence to Israeli military strikes against Iranian and Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah targets in Syria, could open the door to a potential deal.
Iran has denied wanting to acquire the Russian system, while Russia has officially demanded that Israel halt its attacks and respect Syrian sovereignty.
Bolton’s discussions with Israeli national security adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat and Nikolai Patrushev, head of Russia’s Security Council, could not come at a worse moment for Iran. The Islamic Republic is struggling to dampen the effect of harsh US sanctions following the Trump administration’s withdrawal last year from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program.
Analysts Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi argued in a report published last month by the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) that despite public statements to the contrary, Russia, like Israel, rejects a withdrawal of US forces from Syria.
After announcing a complete pullback in February, Trump has since agreed to keep several hundred US troops in the country.
Dekel and Valensi said a US withdrawal would strengthen Iran and force Russia to allow Iran to take control of oil fields in the east of the country.
Writing in Haaretz, columnist Zvi Bar’el suggested that Russia and Iran differ over the endgame in Syria. “Russia has no intention of simply returning Syria to Assad’s control,” Bar’el said. He added that Russia sees Syria as a base from which to forge closer ties to the Gulf and Egypt.
Iran, by contrast, hopes to capitalize on its massive investment in Syria to maintain its influence in Lebanon, counter Saudi regional ambitions and gain access to the Mediterranean.
Scores were killed in clashes between pro-Iranian militias and Russian forces in Aleppo and Deir az-Zor in April. Russian forces last month reportedly removed Shi’ite militias from areas close to the international airports of Aleppo and Damascus.
Ibrahim Badawi, a Syrian columnist identified with Assad’s regime, reported that Russian and Syrian security forces had arrested pro-Iranian Syrian activists.
Badawi said further that a recent reshuffle of the upper echelons of the Syrian state security apparatus had been designed to weaken the position of Maher Assad, the president’s brother and commander of his Republican Guard as well as the army’s elite Fourth Armored Division. Maher Assad is believed to be close to Iran.
Russia and Iran are “each … striving to strengthen [their] influence in the Syrian security apparatuses and in the militias fighting on the ground, while weakening the other side’s influence and presence … The [once-] concealed disagreements among Syria’s allies are now out in the open. It is no longer a secret that Russia, in response to a clear demand from the Gulf, aspires to weaken Iran’s influence,” Badawi wrote.
A possible litmus test of the potential of the talks between the national security advisers may be whether Russia accedes to an Israeli request not to give Syria full control of the S-300 anti-missile system, the equivalent of the US Patriot batteries, which Moscow has already sold and delivered.
Israeli officials have warned their Russian counterparts that once fully controlled by Syrian forces, the S-300 would be a legitimate target.
Israel and Russia agreed four years ago to coordinate military actions over Syria in order to avoid accidentally exchanging fire.
Israel, however, last year rejected a Russian offer to ensure that Iranian forces would not move within 100 kilometers of the Golan Heights, which were recently recognized as Israeli territory by the US. Accepting the Russian offer would have amounted to tacit acceptance of an Iranian presence in Syria.
Dekel and Valensi noted in their report that Israeli forces had reduced the number of attacks on Iranian targets in Syria in a bid to improve chances of exploiting Russian-Iranian strains.
“There is a window of opportunity that allows Israel to try … with Russia and the United States … to formulate and achieve shared interests that it has with the two superpowers, most importantly increasing stability in Syria and instituting governmental reforms in Syria, along with reducing Iranian influence there,” Dekel and Valensi said.
This article is reprinted with permission from JNS.org.
@ Laura:
Who said they did? The Israelis said nothing but spoke loudly via the explosions their missiles started.
@ Bear Klein:
Of course it turned out to be false. Why would Israel in their right mind think Russia could be trusted?
Russia had told Israel that the Iranian forces would be nowhere the Israeli border. This turned out to be false. They have tried to disguise this by dressing Iranians and Hezbollah in Syrian Army Uniforms.
However Syrians do not speak Farsi. So Israel quickly discovered this ruse. Israel has hit Iranians and Hezbollah near the Israeli border in Syria a few times already. The Russians are not going to physically confront the Hezbollah or Iranians on the behalf of Israel. This could happen to them if they encroach on territory in Syria Russia deems important to them.
The Russians will try and get concessions from the USA and Israelis but will probably not give anything of value in return or something that can be relied upon.
If it is true that Israel rejected a deal that Russia offered them in November, that was a mistake. Israel coud have accepted the deal “in principle.” I don’t think it would have prevented the IDF from taking action when and where necessary against the Iranian and Iranian -backed forces. But Russia would have appreciated the gesture, and that would be all to the good. As it is, according to this article, Israel has in any case voluntarily reduced its attacks on Iranian targets in order to placate Russia. This gets things bass-akward. Better to accept Russia’s offer to keep Iranian forces 100 miles from the Golan border, while still taking action against Iranian forces further away when really necessary (informing the Russians in advance to avoid direct clashes). Gentile’s ideas of good manners have more to do with what one says than what one does.
Jews think that all that matters is that one does the “righteous,” thing, which often means bending over backwards to be fair to non-Jews; but they don’t think its of any consequence what one says. As a result, we have been unable to get our message and our side of the story “out there,” so that Gentiles can understand Israel’s actual character and challenges.