By Ted Belman
I have been promoting the Jordan Option for two years now and believe that my efforts will soon be crowned with success. Mudar Zahran will become the ruler of Jordan.
It is fair to ask, “What difference will it make?”
‘1 million Palestinians to settle in Jordan under Trump plan’
Zahran will accept that plan once it is tabled whereas the king will not. The PA, the MB, Iran and the EU will do their utmost to prevent this from happening but they will be powerless to stop it.
We will wake up to see a new ruler in Jordan who will base all his policies vis-a-vis Israel on co-operation, not confrontation. This is even before the Trump plan is tabled.
Zahran will grant citizenship to all Palestinians and will invite them to return to Jordan for social security, healthcare and education. As a result, Israel will have no obligation to offer them a path to citizenship should Israel annex the land on which they live.
The Pres Trump will continue to cut off funds to the PA and UNRWA. He will also continue to undermine the antisemitic UN entities such as UNHCR and UNESCO. It has already neutered the ICC. Trump will also redefine the definition of who is a refugee untitled to UNRWA services thereby greatly reducing their number.
The Palestinians in Judea and Samaria will now have a choices, i.e., confront or cooperate and the PA or Jordan. They will openly resist the PA who is becoming irrelevant. Hamas will try to take over but they will be roundly defeated. Within about two years, Jordan will replace the PA as the administrator of Area A.
Throughout this period of time Israel and Jordan will provide financial inducements to the Palestinians to emigrate to Jordan or elsewhere. Israel will begin extending her sovereignty to the Jordan River. Israel will build like crazy in Area C.
All this without the Trump Plan being tabled.
With these facts on the ground, there will be no need for the Trump Plan. I suspect that just as Trump has proceeded over the last 2 years with pro-Israel policies, he will continue to enable the cooperation of Jordan and Israel to succeed and prosper and to encourage Palestinian emigration without the necessity of tabling a Plan.
Ultimately Israel and Jordan will cooperate in defeating Hamas in Gaza. Israel will not have to occupy it. Jordan will and it will administer it just as it will be administering Area A.
Is there any additional alternative options for Palestinians vis-a-vis emigration grants to could initially incentive some to leave that way first. Skim those off the top seems like it might make the option of Jordan taking them in that much more palatable and feasible- if not strictly or just for Jordanian financial reasons. Even a few 100,000 off the top would be a good beginning to resolving the issue. It might be worth Israel’s investment to do so.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
Yes, Israel would be better off if the Arabs emigrated to other than countries on her borders. but we would be worse off if they remained here. Emigration to Jordan is within reach, emigration to Europe or elsewhere is not.
So let’s go with what we’ve got. Afterall, Jordan will be in friendly hands and the Arabs can emigrate from there to other lands more easily.
@ Bear Klein:
Yes Bear. I stand corrected…. This was just a hyperbolic slip which you properly pointed out.. I really meant the other “many”.
@ Edgar G.: Not trying to pick a fight. Here are your words verbatim, I cut and pasted them:
So if you stand corrected, the subject is done!
These one million Arabs will never arrive from Judea and Samaria, or other Israeli territories.
They will rather be engathered out of the Kasbah’s of Shatilla or they might be fake refugees like Arafat, who actually was an Egyptian.
It is an ill hatched idea to offer ever more Western taxpayer funded inducements to Arabs so that they may please come and beleaguer Israel around its borders.
The Jewish state has sufficient barbarians at its gates, as is today.
Joan Peters has demonstrated how hundreds of thousands of Arabs flooded the so-called refugee camps during the 20th century.
As the news made the rounds in the ‘Arab Street’, 100 years ago, that Infidels are doling out benefits to come who may, it ignited a veritable gold rush of the destitute masses. Now they all run around with oversized keys of their allegedly deserted homes in the country. The same will take place this time.
The solution to Israel’s Arab predicament is to continuously encourage aid, abett and facilitate emigration. No large payments, just tickets, visas, or arrange for Schleppers to join the great trek to Western Europe. You know the Spiel, Aliyah Bet in reverse. Eventually, the numbers will bear out in Israel’s favor.
Israel must reject efforts to populate a cordon sanitaire on its environs. Resist the temptations of an Arab Riviera just outside Eilat, a Saudi metropolis around the corner, or one more million Arabs in Jordan.
Better to be surrounded by an empty desert. In splendid Isolation. The economic sweet spot lies in trade with other regions. Not with Bedouins.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear…!! STOP right now trying to pick a fight with me. You know exactly what I mean and no windy unsubtle stabs will change anything. And don’t twist my words. I said “many”…not “all”… And nothing “curious” about ii. We are mostly rt. wing Nationalists and gravitate to the same outlets….
I have a strong respect for you, and agree with your positions in MOST cases …..just not this one.
So why get all sweated up about it. Too tender an amor propre…/ You’re too old for such thin skinned attitudes..
There can not be any deal….why?…..the Arabs think they have time and demografics on their side…they think they can wait 200 yrs if needed…they believe eroupe will go Islamic and America will go left socialist … And Israel will buckle under the weight and pressure hopefully they are wrong as usual
@ Edgar G.:
Do not mean to bore or irritate you. I apologize in advance if you already know or have read something I may comment on in the future.
Curious how do you know what ALL the readers of this Blog read? Sorry again! Again feel free to ignore!
@ Bear Klein:
Bear I’m sorry I offended you. Sincerely. But it has been really bothering me for a long time. Ted also picks out articles that many have already read either from Arutz or Israel Hayom….but it’s his blog..
When an item is irritating to me…. it’s really IRRITATiNG. (and don’t tell me to put talcum powder on it …_-which reminds me of a hilarious joke that Myron Cohen used to tell about the Jewish lady in a department store)
@ Edgar G.:Good to know, feel free to ignore then without needless comment!
I tend to believe Adam D. but pray that Ted is right. I think that in addition to a cup for Elijah, I will put out one for Mudar Z. at our seder!
@ Bear Klein:
Bear.. some posts are merely headlines or articles from Arutz 7…… WHICH WE ALL READ.. ..What’s the point of it…? .
I wonder if Greenblatt ever stops;”smiling’. Wasn’t he recently referred to by Abbas or someone as a smlling mongoloid..(Downs)…
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/262018
@ Ted Belman: Ted, I sincerely hope that you are proven right and I am proven wrong, Ted. Nothing would give me greater pleasure. Seeing Israel belessed by good fortune or Hashem is far, far more important to me than ego or “I told you so.”
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I am not going to address all your concerns. I am telling everyone what is going to happen and you choose to disbelieve me. That is your right.
I will be proven right and you wrong.
I have never prevented your posts from being published. This one was held up because it was too long.
Ted, please publish the comment that I have just posted about the Jordanian Option, even though I know you don’t agree with what I have to say.
As you and all Israpundit readers know, Bear,I think the Jordanian Option is a mirage . I don’t think that Jordan can or will solve Israel’s Palestinian problem for us. If it gets solved at all, the Israelis will have to bite the bullet, however painful it is, and solve it themselves will little or no foreign assistance.
Most web sites other than Israpundit that monitor Jordanian internal politics (there are very few of them, I admit, in English), seem to believe that the Muslim Brotherhood , not the JOC, is the most powerful opposition bloc in Jordan. On the other hand, they also say that much of the opposition in the streets is generated by local, non-partisan committees, and that the opposition, while large, has yet to unify around any individual leader, organization, political party, etc. I do follow JOCs blog as well. While the blogs videos abundantly document opposition demonstrations against the King,the demonstrators do not chant the name of any specific leader or organization they are following.This is unusual for mass demonstrations in other countries This seems to confirm the reports in an Abu Dhabi English language digital newspaper that the opposition has yet to choose a leader or form an umbrella organization. In order to oust the king, the opposition will it some point have to unite around a leader, as the Iranian opposition to the Shah (tragically) united around Ayatollah Khomeini. Let’s hope that the leader the Jordanians choose will be someone , whether Zahran or some other individual , who will be more Israel-friendly than Khomeini.
However, nearly all of the other web sites that report on Jordan say that hostility to Israel is extremely widespread in Jordan. Even many oppositionists and critics of the king seem to share these antagonistic views. This will make it very difficult for Zahran, who is known for his pro-Israel views, to gain power in Jordan.
So far, I have not been able to locate any reports on the web other than Israpundit that indicate there are contacts and negotiations going on between the Trump administration and the JOC. I seach for this information using a variety of search engines periodically, but so far I haven’t located any such reports. If anyone has spotted such a report originating from a source other than Israpundit, especially one known to be close to the Trump administration, please provide links to it on Israpundit.
Even a Jordanian government that wanted to resettle Palestinians from the West Bank or Gaza in Jordan would probably be unable to do so, because the country is broke, has almost no industry and very few natural resources–at least very few that have been developed. It has been unable to provide employment to a very large number of its citizens. And it has not found employment for the 750,000 to 1,500,000 (estimates vary) Syrian refugees who are encamped in the country. Its difficult to imagine this vast army of the unemployed welcoming large numbers of unemployed new arrivals in the country to compete for the extremely few available jobs. And the Jordanian government, which is already bankrupt, certainly could not provide for them, regardless of who leads the country in the future.
Even if Trump intends to propose a 145 billion dollar resettlement program, as reported in a Lebanese newspaper, I don’t see how he could possibly raise that kind of money.
Per Kushner the Trump plan will be presented in June 2019 after the end of Ramadan (it ends June 5).
The PA is powerless to stop Israel from applying its sovereignty to all the Jewish Towns in Judea/Samaria. Israel just needs to do so. The Trump Administration will NOT stand in Israel’s way.
Israel needs to keep building in Judea/Samaria.
The PA has stopped paying its Security Forces which currently coordinate with the IDF on Security. This right now is a threat to Israel and the USA to start paying them again or else the security cooperation will cease. The PA thinks this will get at least Israel to rethink the reduction of monthly payments (deducted from customs receipts) because they are paying terrorists for killing Israelis.
The PA is exposing itself to attacks from Hamas if its security forces quit because of non-payment. The IDF will have to move into any PA run areas that deteriorate violence and anarchy. Israel will need to cleanse the area of weapons plus eliminate any terrorists they encounter.
So if Jordan does open itself up to Pal-Arab emigration the situation in Judea/Samaria maybe conducive to it. Gaza is already such a hell hole that the educated are leaving whenever they can now.
Waiting to see how the currently well hidden or disguised militia or army of Mudar Zahran take on the challenges of Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood and Jihadis in Jordan. Their stealth is so complete it almost appears that they are a mirage.