The Iranians want to transform Syria into a proxy state based on the Lebanese model and this flies in the face of Russian aspirations.
On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow where he had a long-awaited meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
At the top of the agenda was the Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the continued military build-up by the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria and Lebanon.
After the discussion between Putin and Netanyahu’s team, it became clear that relations between Israel and Russia were back to the level they had been before the crisis over a downed Russian reconnaissance aircraft in September 2018.
At the time, the Russians accused the Israeli Air Force (IAF) of causing the IL-20 plane crash in which 15 Russian soldiers were killed, something that has vehemently been denied by Israel.
The political crisis that arose after the Syrian downing of the Russian plane limited the IAF in actions against Iran-related targets in Syria.
Instead of attacking ever deeper into Syria, the IAF was now forced to carry out aerial actions against Iran in the war-torn country from Lebanese airspace.
As I reported earlier this week, Iran is constantly increasing its war rhetoric against Israel and claims that the IAF has effectively failed to stop the military build-up of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria.
Israel, for its part, is also preparing for a multiple-front war against Iran and its allies Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Syrian-stationed Golan Liberation Brigade founded in 2018 by Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Quds Brigade.
The IDF recently held an unexpected major drill on the Golan Heights and last week it was revealed that Rafael Defense Systems in Israel has developed a high-precision missile that can destroy targets deep in the ground.
This is of great significance when we look at how Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for a future war against Israel.
Aided by Iran, Hezbollah has built underground missile silos and factories for the upgrading of existing missiles in Lebanon.
The same is happening in Syria where Iran has constructed underground military facilities with the help of Hezbollah, especially in western and northern Syria.
Prime Minister Netanyahu recently claimed that Israel has succeeded in forcing Hezbollah to close some of these facilities and that the Iran-sponsored and trained Lebanese terror group is in the possession a few dozen guided missiles only.
Iran, however, does not give up and continues trying to smuggle the necessary components and equipment for upgrading existing Hezbollah missiles to Lebanon.
Israel is extremely worried about this development because the conversion of existing missiles such as the Zelzal-2 and the Zelzal-3 will mean that Hezbollah gets the ability to perform precision attacks on strategic targets such as the IDF headquarters in the center of Tel Aviv.
A few months ago it became clear that the Islamic Republic uses civilian aircraft to transport weapons directly to Beirut International Airport.
Last week, reports came in showing Iran is smuggling the necessary GPS equipment for transforming missiles via suitcases on civilian flights to Lebanon.
The GPS kits are relatively small making the delivery to Hezbollah virtually without risk because the IAF will not carry out attacks on civil aircraft or civilian airports to make that delivery impossible.
The GPS equipment enables Iran and Hezbollah to convert 14,000 Zelzal-2 and 3 missiles into precision weapons. Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is estimated on 140,000 projectiles, among them also Scud rockets.
Upgrading the Zelzal rockets takes no more than a few hours and then the missile has the ability to hit a target with precision and an average margin of error at hitting its target lower than five meters.
The upgrade costs no more than between 5,000 and 10,000 dollars per rocket, a fraction of the price of a new GPS guided missile.
Iran and Hizbollah use GPS systems and the Russian GLONASS guidance system to transform the Zelzal missiles into so-called Fateh 110 missiles, a precision missile with a range of 300 kilometers -enough to bring the nuclear reactor in Dimona in southern Israel within the reach of Hezbollah.
The Fateh 110 is a solid-fuel missile on a mobile launcher and has a warhead of 500 kilos while the rocket is able to destroy an entire building.
The fact that the IDF military headquarters is located in the center of Tel Aviv puts the population of the city at great risk if Hezbollah uses Fateh 110 missiles in a future war.
While Israel is in the possession of ultra-modern anti-missile shields such as the Arrow, Iron Dome, and David Sling, it is expected that these systems will not be able to provide optimal protection in the event of a multi-front missile war.
During such a war the IDF will have to take into account hundreds of missile attacks per day from three fronts: Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon.
Israel will continue its attacks on Iran-related targets in Syria, Netanyahu told Putin on Wednesday, and the Russian President apparently does not object curbing Iran in Syria any longer.
After all, Putin decided to intervene in Syria to protect Russian interests in Syria, such as preserving the only naval base outside Russian territory (Tartus) and restoring Russian influence in the Middle East.
The Iranians are working to transform Syria into a proxy state based on the Lebanese model and this flies in the face of Russian aspirations.
We can now expect that the IAF will again use Syrian airspace to stop the Iranian entrenchment in the country which is still going on, as was shown by an analysis from Chatham House this week.
The Iranians make use of the chaotic situation in eastern Syria in particular and have stationed Shiite militias on the border with Iraq and west of the Euphrates River.
They are also recruiting local Sunni tribes and clans to do their dirty work and are filling the vacuum left behind by ISIS, which is currently losing its last stronghold in Syria and earlier lost control over the strategically important Province Deir al-Zur.
The Deir Ez-Zur Province is the best place to deal with Iran, the Chatham analysts wrote.
Israel has already carried out attacks on Iranian targets in Deir Ez-Zur and the Trump Administration this week once again retreated from its intention to withdraw all US troops from Syria when it made clear that a contingent US Special Forces at the At-Tanf base on the Iraqi Syrian border in the Deir Ez-Zur would remain.
@ Felix Quigley:
Hi, Felix
I was hoping for some wise insight into the Korean situation, and got something like a Delphic oracle from you:
“On the issue of N Korea it is not the fault in the slightest of President Trump. The whole history needs to be studied. Trump seems to sense this history more correctly than all of the academics.”
I don’t know what the academics have been saying about these matters; and yes, there is much history that most people ignore.
One bit of recent Korean history, is the intense animosity many Koreans seem to hold against Japan — long, long after the matters of contention took place, in WWII. By contrast, Israeli Jews seem to have patched up their differences with the Germans (but not, surprizingly, with the Poles!), and work very cooperatively with them — the Dolphin submarines being a case in point. The Philippines also, which suffered much under the Japanese occupation, settled their differences in only a few years; but the Koreans never seem to be satisfied that the Japanese have bowed and groveled enough. Among US allies, this antagonism is greater even, than that between the Turks and the Greeks.
I don’t expect readers of Israpundit to be awfully concerned about events in the Far East. Closer-in players, such as the Russians and Iranians, are much more on their radar. This is understandable. It’s worth a moment’s consideration, though, that until recently, N. Korea has been sharing its nuclear and rocketry technology with the Iranians; and that the Chinese are very interested in Mediterranean affairs as part of their “Belt and Road” initiative. They are involved, but in a shadowy way.
President Trump seems to be taking a cue from Ronald Reagan in Korea, emphasizing personal relationships over striving for signatures on paper. In this, he stands in stark contrast to “Tell Vladimir I’ll be more flexible” ex-President Obama. You mentioned Kim’s aweareness of the fate of Gaddafi, and its impress on the Korean’s thinking. Kim must be equally aware of what happened to the USSR, after Mr. Gorbachev came into harmony with our leader. Either of these precedents must make him extremely uneasy about striking an honest, comprehensive deal with Mr. Trump.
Another thing the academics may miss, is the fact that South Korea had a nuclear program of its own, until it was coerced into stopping it by the Americans. Now, the strength of US leverage over S. Korea is the latter’s need for protection from the North. Take away that hammer-hold, and a reunified Korea could become as much a nuissance as N. Korea has been in recent years. In fact, considering all I have said above, peace with N. Korea could well set the wheels in motion for a full-blown Japanese-Korean nuclear arms race.
Those are just some thoughts. I’d better close here.
@ Felix Quigley:
Yamit you consistently distort what I say and have said. I have never been a friend of Netanyahu. Never. How could I be? The man has dissembled all the time I have been aware of him.Your memory may be confused because there was a time when I supported Netanyahu and that was when he was running in an election against the Labor Party of I think Herzog and Livni (I remember the name of Herzog because of his connection to Ireland). If Livni and Herzog had won that election then I imagine that by now there would be a Palestine State and the Jewish state would have the final insult imposed on it.So also today I defend Netanyahu and his wife against these atrocious charges against him, that he accepted a box of cigars as a present or something like that, or his wife employed a chef to help with a menu who were being entertained in his home. So in those cases I naturally defend Netanyahu against THOSE people. I do not know how to describe these people in Israel who act in this way. I saw that Netanyahu hung back on the great Gaza Withdrawal issue.Perhaps it is best to just say about Netanyahu that he is not up tot he demands of the situation, ever, and that is the main problem for Jews today.These kind of leaders never do well.You very often see their equivalent in socialist leaders who talk socialism but cannot take any action. This is very obvious in a book I am reading called The Spanish Holocaust by Paul Preston. I consider by the way that this book is a MUST read for everybody today.
What is left out inthe above comments is the role of Russia, the basic bankruptcy of the Russian leadership of Putin.
The central issue was certainly to defeat ISIS. The world simply cannot afford to allow such a regime to go on living. This is what the opposition of the British people to this teenager now woman called Begum returning to Britain. It is a very big issue.
But how could that be done. Here enter a few things immediately. Firstly the dogmatic and wooden response of Netanyahu to ISIS. He stayed out. If anything he was friendly to ISIS in that it is possible that those he patched up on the border were close enough to ISIS and eventually went on to join them. Think on this for a moment. A young Yazedi woman being passed around and sold as a sex slave, repeatedly raped, by somebody who passed through an Israeli hospital. Thanks a lot. Way to go.
And there was little, perhaps no, opposition to this line by Netanyahu.
But there was possibly a way. Accepting that Netanyahu and his sort were wooden and dogmatic to the general issue of ISIS could anything have been done by Putin?
Here Putin has to accept great responsibility for what happened. Bereft of principles he opted for Assad and Iran/Hezbollah.
Too late now Putin has learned from experience the danger. Always too late like Stalin had to wait until 1941 for him to see the reality of Fascism.
What if Putin had stated to Assad…”You are in great danger from ISIS. They want to kill you and they would like the way they killed Gadhafi. How about it Assad? To us Russians it looks like the normal and sensible thing to do is to create a TEMPORARY alliance with Israel. Keep Syria free from Iran and Hezbollah WHO ALSO ARE JIHADISTS. On that basis since you are secular supported by minorities they will be a danger to you. Will you?
I think Russia was the key since Netanyahu was a nonentity, and Obama was the creature of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Putin failed badly.
I think that was the moment for a great maturity of leadership by Putin. He had his eye on the Fascist Lefts in the west, fascist left grouplets like the wsws and in more numbers the Labourites of Corbyn. Easy to please them by going with Iran and Hezbollah/Hamas.
But it was a moment which really could not actually exist because of the nature of the Putin leadership. He is a stalinist converted to candle burning in his late years. The man has turned against all revolutionary tradition and his brain has started to rot. We see these types on Israpundit.
What a creep really. Putin could have said openly to the world…”We see with our own eyes Netanyahu and the Israelis trying to sit this ISIS out. But it will come back to haunt them. Forget Obama. We have to have an alliance with Netanyahu representing the Jews, us, and Assad representing the Alawites, the Christians, the Kurds and Yazedis. It is an alliance to do a particular job and will last only until that job is done.
Such a statement would also have meant a big struggle inside of the Israeli Jewish public. Hopefully our friend Martin Sherman would have seen this but it is very doubtful if the neocon Caroline Glick would.
On the issue of N Korea it is not the fault in the slightest of President Trump. The whole history needs to be studied. Trump seems to sense this history more correctly than all of the academics.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Nice detailed post, Adam.
“Hezbollah can not leave Syria because it is contrary to Iran’s strategic interests to control Damascus and southern Syria as they face the Israeli Golan Heights. And we have no choice but to ask whether the Iranians are really keeping a distance from the Israeli border of 85 kilometers or maybe only 45 kilometers or maybe they are already on the fences?”
Indeed. It seems like just a matter of time, before Israel and Hizbullah have at it in Lebanon and Syria. I think the main things restraining Israel’s hand, are the election and the witch hunt in Israel.
This is an equally important article from Israeli intelligencenziv.net, as translated from Hebrew by google. It demonstrates that Israel is in extreme danger from Hizbollah-Iranian forces right on the Golan border. Bibi is a total wimp if he doesn’t act
.”Hezbollah has taken over Division 5 and operates two divisions against the Israeli Golan Heights
01/03/2019 Nziv 0 Comments 0 Comments Iran , Hezbollah , Lebanon , Syria
About three weeks ago, the website published a report entitled “Deployment of units from Division 5 in the northern Golan Heights – meaning.”
After his involvement in the civil war in Syria in 2011, Hezbollah is returning and placing Lebanon at the top of its agenda. For this purpose, he withdrew large forces from Syria back home.
Most of the Hezbollah fighters who were worn out during the long years of rebellion sought to return home, but the Iranians refused to approve it. As a result, Hezbollah was forced to threaten some of the fighters. If they did not agree to operate on Syrian soil and return home, they would be fired from their jobs and not work within the organization. And the Afghan forces and members of the Shiite communities in northern Syria, Al-Foa and Qarayula, assimilate it into the framework of the 5th Division, which is located in the southeastern part of the Syrian-Daraa south capital.
There are also Iranian headquarters and Hizballah in southern Syria. Recently, Divisions 5, under the instruction of the Iranians, sent the 112th Brigade to capture the Golan Heights against Israel, after the 61st Brigade that occupied the line permanently eroded and disappeared in battles against the rebels and Da’ash who were in their area of ??control.
The 112th Brigade, along with the 90th Brigade, now occupies the entire length of the Golan border with Israel and serves as the eyes and ears of the Supreme Iranian Command, headed by General Sulimani, and provides him with excellent tactical intelligence on what is happening on the Israeli border.
The Lebanese news website “Electronic News” says that Divisions 5 now contain a division of Shiite fighters loyal to Iran, and that the command of the entire division is currently in the hands of Hizbullah and not as it always was in the hands of the Syrian command.
In this way, the Iranians have legitimized their presence in Syria after the foreign Shi’ite fighters wear Syrian army uniform and have Syrian ID cards.
Hezbollah can not leave Syria because it is contrary to Iran’s strategic interests to control Damascus and southern Syria as they face the Israeli Golan Heights.
And we have no choice but to ask whether the Iranians are really keeping a distance from the Israeli border of 85 kilometers or maybe only 45 kilometers or maybe they are already on the fences?
? Putin gives green light to Netanyahu to participate in effort to remove Iran from Syria Breaking News for 2-3-2019. Is updated”
This is a very important article about the new Netanyahu-Putin deal concerning the Iranians in Syria, from the Israeli intelligence site Nziv.net. It confirms Visser’s story but with a lot of amazing detail. Please let this be posted here in its entirety, Ted.
“Putin gives the green light to Netanyahu to participate in the effort to remove Iran from Syria
01/03/2019 Nziv 0 Comments 0 Comments Iran , Israel , Syria , Russia
During his visit to Russia on Monday, Netanyahu met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In the conversation, the two sides updated the deployment of foreign forces in Syria.
President Putin has said two important statements that do not sound like two faces:
1. “All the foreign forces currently operating in Syria must leave the country in order to enable it to rehabilitate itself.”
In other words, even the Iranians should leave Syria even though they seem to be intensifying their efforts to establish themselves in the country. Putin in fact hints that he is giving a “green light” to those who will take care of cleaning Syria out of foreign forces who refuse to respond to the Russian call.
2. “We will not allow Damascus to use military technologies to respond to Israeli attacks . ”
In other words, Israel could attack the Iranians without the air defense systems firing even one missile. That is to say – a bright green light for Israel.
We need to be careful because Hizbullah has clandestine and hidden systems in Kalmoun and Aleksoir, and I have already written that the Iranians began to send their own systems to Syria. To protect only them.
And Putin apparently wants to teach the Iranians a lesson. Who will buy systems from Russia instead of producing inferior systems themselves.
In order to show the seriousness of the renewed cooperation between the two countries, according to senior Syrian sources, he brought with him the detailed deployment map of all the Iranian forces in Syria and showed it to Putin and to the top Russian command in Syria. Foreign sources say Putin has also pulled out a map showing the Israeli prime minister’s entourage the map of the Iranians’ deployment in Syria, according to the intelligence provided by the Russian army.
According to foreign sources, Netanyahu arrived this time in Russia determined to ignite the process of removing the Iranians from Syria, if not by threats by force. And he was not turned down !!
In any event, Israel made it clear to the Iranians that it would not allow it to settle in Syria, and that it now had a “green light” from the Russian president to do what was necessary to uproot the Iranians from the areas near its border.
Prime Minister Israel Netanyahu recently hinted that Israel would not hesitate to act against the Iranians in eastern Syria and in Iraq, which are hundreds of kilometers from the Israeli border, but are engaged in setting up a range of ballistic missiles capable of hitting the territory of the State of Israel.
Western news websites report that Britain, which evacuated a large part of its combat aircraft from the Middle East, has recently brought in three powerful electronic intelligence gathering devices in the Alinbar district of Iraq and over eastern Syria, for the intelligence gathering. The British Air Force uses two ASTOR ZJ691 & ZJ692 and UQAV MQ-9 Reaper UAS.
The new factor that entered the talks between Netanyahu and Putin was the results of Assad’s meeting with the Iranian leadership in Tehran. According to informed sources in Syria, the Iranians informed Assad that they were going to greatly intensify their efforts to establish themselves in Syria and that they were facing a direct confrontation with Israel on Syrian soil. As well as the intensification of an Iranian-made anti-aircraft missile system in Syria to protect Iranian bases and positions in Syria.As Iran’s words to Assad were in sharp contrast to what was agreed upon in Sochi, Putin noted that his efforts were in vain, Above its border and includes its extraordinary statements as we wrote in the beginning of the article.
? Dance on the blood of the Axis of Evil Hezbollah took control of Division 5 and operates 2 brigades against the Israeli Golan”
@ yamit82:
“The best situation from Israel’s POV was for the civil war to continue for as long as possible no matter the identity of the dissidents. Arab against Arab, Muslim against Muslim on Israel’s border was always good for Israel as long as it was contained and didn’t spill over into Israel.”
I agree. As one poster put it, the Syrian Civil War was “a gift that keeps on giving” to Israel.
The net effect of it all, is that Turkey now has troops in both Syria and Iraq. The Russia-Syria-Iran axis was there before the war, and is there again. Even Lebanon was under Syrian/Iranian sway before the war, as it is now.
The refugee crisis has also come about since before the war; but I can hardly blame Iran for that, nor even Turkey. The main culprit seems to be globalists and leftists making a play for power. That is a major problem for the world, not just Israel.
Just as a side note, but an “elephant in the living room” sort of side note, people seem to be getting all worked up about Armageddon.. All sorts of people: Jews, gentiles, religious, secular… Even A. O. Cortez has become a prophet-witch, pronouncing doom in just twelve years and scaring the bejeebers out of children. It seems to be driving everyone mad.
Of course, the current demonic world order will end. With my physical condition, I believe there’s a very good chance that my personal world will end before then — even before AOC’s Doomsday. It’s perfectly reasonable, to see Armageddon coming: as the Christian Bible says, “God is not mocked. What a man sows, so shall he also reap”. That’s very understandable. The secular version is, “What goes around, comes around”. It’s also EXTREMELY sane, for people to expect to die. What’s lunatic, is people thinking they can actually stop these things.
Felix says Jews have a tendency to be stupid and suicidal. Despite my smirky remark above, I agree with him to some extent; and a lot of gentiles are in the same boat.
@ yamit82:
“amit this is the worst possible thing that could have happened to Israel and you are part of this stupid and suicidal tendency inside of Jews today.”
Oh, Dear me, Yamit! You’re such an antisemite! Lumping all Jews together, and insulting them like that!
PS. Oh, pardon me. You were quoting Felix.
Is there supposed to be something profitable in this sort of talk?
@ Bear Klein:
Israel will sooner or later end up fighting a major war with Iran and the Hezbollah in the area. Israel has been trying to keep Iran and Hezbollah from obtaining dangerous weapons in the area by attacking it 200 times in the last two years. It will need to continue these attacks.
I agree, that a war between Israel is highly probable, an extension of that war into Syria is almost certain, and eventually Israel will probably have to deal with Iran on the Ayatollah’s own turf. One benefit of the civil war in Syria, these past few years, is that Iran and Hizbullah have been too busy fighting ISIS and the FSA to carry on a meaningful war against Israel. Russia and the US ended all that, by crushing ISIS and the other jihadis.
I don’t know what direction Russia will take. Turkey is also an important player here (as a Muslim Brotherhood state, they have inherited the cloak of Jihad from ISIS). Semper Paratus.
@ Felix Quigley:
“The great lesson of our time has been the destruction of Saddam, then Egypt, then Gadhafi, I add Gaghbo in Ivory Coast also, but above all Gadhafi because he was our friend openly so…that is also why Kim will not ever give up his nuclear weapons…why would he, Trump may be gone in 2020 and any number of crazies may be in.”
That is an astute observation.
What is your solution? Should Pres. Trump allow Kim to keep some nukes for insurance? And if he keeps them, what about Japan? They need insurance even more than Kim; and they would be in great danger if we put another Obama into the White House. Then of course, there is also the problem of South Korea, which could quickly go nuclear if it wanted to. Moon will not be president there forever; there is a significant opposition to him, and many in the opposition favor going nuclear.
Do you follow me, Felix? You addressed a serious issue here. I would like to hear more.
I do not think it is at all ethical to even talk in threats of nuclear war. It is especially not ethical to do so with the Mohammedans. They have always been a different breed of loco.
These think that if they destroy the rest of humanity, essentially the world, that there will be a special place for them, somewhere, int he world of Allah.
It is just such a dangerous enterprize to have a lottery with the world at stake with these crazies.
Do not do it. As I said before too much is at stake including our animal cousins who do not understand these things.
Work always to find another way.
It was Obama who was the crazy bastard in this scene. Putin and the Russians, although they left Lenin far behind, were sane and balanced in comparision to Obama.
We can carry this further. Today it is Trump who is sane and balanced in comparision to the fascist Trump Hatred of those like Pelossi and so many others.
I believe very strongly that Putin would have allied with Israel and the Jews. That was a head start in that critical situation back then.
The great lesson of our time has been the destruction of Saddam, then Egypt, then Gadhafi, I add Gaghbo in Ivory Coast also, but above all Gadhafi because he was our friend openly so…that is also why Kim will not ever give up his nuclear weapons…why would he, Trump may be gone in 2020 and any number of crazies may be in.
By the way I have been so consistent here over many years. Read Daniel Pipes on the Alawites. Pipes is not very far from Gerald Honigman on this issue of minorities under Islam.
One of the most shameful things in our lives has been how the Christian Church elites did not raise a finger against the Jihadists and watched their people assassinated en masse.
But I stray from the immediate issue. The Jews could have kept their devil far away and did not. This now is just a terrible outcome.
Iran’s goal is Islamic Control of the world starting with the middle east via the Shia Strain of Islam. They are trying to remake Syria in that vision. They have been driving out Sunnis and bringing in Shia’s. They pounce were they weakness such as in Yemen or Lebanon, Iraq and now Syria.
They along with Assad have been engaging in ethnic cleansing.
Putin recognizes that if Iran succeeds on this, Russia will lose their bases in Syria in the end. Also they do not really want to get into military battles with the west in Syria but simply maintain their foothold and influence.
Israel will sooner or later end up fighting a major war with Iran and the Hezbollah in the area. Israel has been trying to keep Iran and Hezbollah from obtaining dangerous weapons in the area by attacking it 200 times in the last two years. It will need to continue these attacks.
@ yamit82:
I now am seriously concerned with your mental health.
War with Iran was always necessary. The question I am posing and which you seem not able to focus on, was it not better to keep the enemy penned in far from you, or to let these rabid antisemitic dogs out and loose on your doorstep.
You seem to prefer the latter.
It is possible that Assad would have went for an Israeli/Assad/Russian alliance against ISIS and against the other extreme Islamists that Obama was backing, Obama having always had a soft spot for the Muslim Brotherhood, as we saw especially in Egypt at the start of his rule.
It should have been put to Assad. Even a refusal would have been a gain. But without Russia he would I believe have went along.
That is where you are now anyhow but after so much destruction. Do you not see that? Read the above article that we are responding to.
Felix Quigley Said:
No One has been more anti-BB than me. I have been critical of him in print since 1998. One year before the ideological right-wing deposed him…. I can remember a time when you were his most loyal acolyte. You criticized me for criticizing BB for not a few years. One thing in your favor is you are never consistent flopping all over the political map usually with no rational justification or insight.
Question to what Tribe is Assad attached to?
Question-are they Sunni or Shia Muslims?
Question- Status of any small minority rules authority in relation to the majority?
Asaad’s incompetent and brutal misrule was a major cause of the rebellion albeit it was fueled and supported by foreign entities. The latter would not have occurred if not for the former conditions caused by Assad himself.
The best situation from Israel’s POV was for the civil war to continue for as long as possible no matter the identity of the dissidents. Arab against Arab, Muslim against Muslim on Israel’s border was always good for Israel as long as it was contained and didn’t spill over into Israel.
Russia is overextended in Syria and cannot maintain long term goals with creating and maintaining naval and air bases in Syria so long as Iran is fixated on destroying Israel and seeking to make Syria another front as a launching pad against Israel similar to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Rusian economy is in the toilet as in the past they cannot maintain a guns and butter economy which was a major reason for the fall of the USSR and before that under the Bolsheviks and before that under the tzars. Same Russian mentality and same patterns of self-destruction. I don’t think Russia gives a shit about Assad or even the Mullahs but they have a foothold in the ME and ports on the Med for a small cost so long as there is no major eruption forcing them to take sides and involving themselves in a conflict they can’t afford to wage (NO money and bitting Trump sanctions are hurting not to mention low oil and gas prices)
The window to attack Iran directly has been closed to Israel for at least 7-8 years and probably always has been conventional. BB the bluffer tried to get Obama to attack Iran and not only did his effort fail Obama double crossed BB by signing off on stupid Iran deal behind BB’s back Looks like a major Israel intel failure if the deal was a surprise to BB.
There are only two methods Israel can avoid the dire consequence outlined by Prf Visser and others including myself in past comments over the past few years. Conventional preemption and nuclear preemption or nuclear retaliation against Lebanon, Syria, and Iran If they attack first.
Israel should immediately announce that we possess a nuclear option and that option will be used with automatic retaliation against any missile or rocket detected by our radars heading towards Israel. We announce that any attack Israel will assume they are WMD armed. We won’t wait till they hit to verify. To that end Israel could make public a list of preprogrammed targets like all of Lebanon and Syria. All of Iran’s oil fields and Tehran. All of Israel and all of our critical military and civilian strategic sites are now exposed to attack and we are not prepared for such a conventional attack any less a nuke attack.
Blaming BB and other leaders will serve no objective purpose now it’s what we intend to do going forward and we do have options and geopolitics can change in the meantime?
One thing I can say for you Felix, you are not a military or political strategic thinker and are so ignorant of history and basic details you always miss the central points and themes….. but you can’t as a religious fanatic you view the world thru your warped Commie vision.
I am despairing of this Israeli leadership, the themes of which are also totally represented without any relief on Israpundit. Yamit this is the worst possible thing that could have happened to Israel and you are part of this stupid and suicidal tendency inside of Jews today.
But there was no leadership to advocate for my views which have turned out to be too correct.
With a correct leadership this should not be happening. That is the war with Iran and Islam should not be fought in Iraq and Syria. It should be fought directly in and on Iran.
I also blame Putin and his stumbling bankrupt Stalinism in Syria. He could have insisted on the terms. Assad was in no position to refuse and he might just have agreed anyhow.
I blame Netanyahu big time. He adapted himself like a miserable little boy to Obama.
If Putin had been a Leninist which he most definitely is not then he would have insisted on Assad forming the Assad/Israel/Russia alliance on the basis that the Iranian Mullahs, in the end his enemy too, be kept on the border of Iran.
Only a moron or a hopeless dogmatist would have opposed such a welcome outcome for Israel.
The sad thing is that Netanyahu is not being attacked for this. He is being attacked on the basis of some petty wine bottles. It is comedy and farce at the same time.