Is the US troop withdrawal going to take place as most people fear?

Before watching this video, I wrote to a number of editors and activists my thoughts on the troop withdrawal. I stand by them even after watching the video:

Prior to Trump’s announcement of the intended withdrawal of 2000 US troops ( believe that the actual number of troops there may go as high as 4000.), it appeared to me that America’s occupation of the 30% of Syria to the east of the Euphrates together with the Kurds, put them in control of the whole ME (Iran, Iraq and Syria.). Yes they were on a mission to destroy ISIS and the job was almost completed (90% done) but they had another mission which was just beginning to be pursued and that is namely the push-back of Iran and perhaps even regime change there. Trump made no mention of this mission and few if any commentators referred to its existence. I found that surprising. I also found it surprising that these troops were considered superfluous and could be brought home yet the 5000 US troops in Iraq weren’t. Why was Iraq more important than Syria?

Since the phone call with Erdogan when Trump mentioned bringing the troops home immediately this time frame has been extended to 6 months.

When Pompeo was interviewed by Ingraham I believe, he said that this decision to remove the troops had been thoroughly discussed for 2 weeks. So Trump didn’t just impulsively say it.

It surprised me that Trump didn’t say that Turkey had to refrain from attacking the Kurds or didn’t say anything about Erdogan’s antisemitic remarks recently made. I also can’t believe that a matter as important as this (letting them go east of the Euphrates) is finalized in a phone call. The US possession of these lands is far too valuable to throw it away.

A little while later there was a news report that Bibi had asked Trump to remove the troops as Bibi was about to start a way with Hezbollah. I don’t believe such a request was made and was possibly floated to take some heat off Trump.

All Trump’s detractor’s assume the worst. What they should be doing is giving him the benefit of the doubt and hold fire until the phone call is followed up by action. There are too many unanswered questions.

I just couldn’t believe that Trump had stabbed Israel or the Kurds in the back as virtually everyone claimed. It is more likely that he is looking out for their interests. Remember Trump til now has been saying that US foreign policy should stand by their allies . This was an important principle.

I have some insider information that says he is standing by Kurds and the Israelis. That doesn’t mean that he is going to give Kurds an independent state. American policy for both Iraq and Syria has been to avoid breaking them up. So in my opinion what he has in mind is autonomy within a state.

The Arab League and Assad are getting back together. I am surprised this is happening before Syria has agreed on a constitution. What could it mean?

Its my guess that the US together with their Arab allies are in negotiations with Assad to change sides. Sure Assad can’t get $300 billion from Russia and Iran to rebuild Syria but they can get it from the US and Saudi Arabia. If such a deal is agreed upon there is no reason why Russia can’t remain with its port and airfields and influence. Only Iran has to go along with its militias including Hezbollah.

Secondly Turkey was not given a free ride to remain Islamist and a trouble maker. I am told Turkey has come around and is now being friendly. By publicly agreeing to finishing off ISIS, whom they allied with before, are they not saying that they are moving back. After all It was during the Obama years that both Obama and Erdogan embraced the Muslim Brotherhood and islamists. Now that Egypt and the gulf states have outlawed the MB, and agreed to defeat the Islamist ideology rather than advance it, Erdogan sees no benefit from being an outlier.

My source has also told me why the troops are being withdrawn and no one has even speculated on the real reason. I can’t tell you more that that.

Let’s see how it all plays out.

December 30, 2018 | 18 Comments »

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18 Comments / 18 Comments

  1. @ Edgar G.:
    Hi, Edgar. Sorry I confused Bear with Buzz.

    I do want to get along better with Bear. It’s fine to banter, as you often do; but I don’t think either Bear or I welcome acrimony.

    Someone said that the present time is like the 1930s in Europe. That is not an unreasonable comparison. The Holocaust did not begin in earnest until 1941; but antisemitism grew steadily throughout the 30s because of rabble-rousers like Hitler. What we are seeing today is not a return to the gas chambers, but a return to that rabble-rousing.

    The Holocaust is history; but what we are experiencing today is not the Holocaust: it is a new wave of lying attacks; and the targets are faithful Christians as well as faithful Jews. The bannings and arrests have already begun. Even Rev. Franklin Graham, one of the most famous Christian preachers in the US, has been banned from Facebook for “hate speech” — presumably because he quoted the Bible about homosexuality.

    I’m not going to waste my time commiserating with a Jew because he’s never learned to forgive and forget something that happened 75 years ago. I have enough on my plate here and now — and so does he.

  2. @ Michael S:

    Michael I think this is very unlike Bear’s normally decent behaviour- he could not be seriously serious. I say that I regard you as an excellent commentator (except on “bones”), extremely literate, and very definitely NOT an Anti-Semite….not possible. I say it……!!

    Although you think little of Bear’s present sense of humour, consider that you are in the middle of an acrimonious exchange, and neither is going to placate the other.

    Bear was NOT the cause of my temporarily leaving -it was Buzz of the Orient……

  3. @ Bear Klein:
    “For any illiterate commentators”

    Bear, I take that as an ad hominem remark against me. I take offense to it. If Yamit or Edgar or anyone else had said it, I would consider it “humor”; but you seem to have the sense of humor of someone who drinks hydrochloric acid for breakfast.

    I’m not the only one you’ve done this to — You darned near got Edgar to pack up and leave. FYI, none of the commenters here are “illiterate”.

  4. For any illiterate commentators

    Lindsey Graham says Trump is now vowing to stay and ‘destroy’ IS before leaving Syria and to make sure ‘Iran doesn’t become the big winner of our leaving.

    This was NOT an anonymous source. Whether it happens who knows because as many people have said Trump appears to change his mind depending on the last person he talks to on a subject.

    I am not trying to cheap shot Trump because I voted for him and call them as I view them even if it offends those worship Trump as he were a demi-god. Trump had already said ISIS was defeated so the US could leave Syria in-spite of what the military told him.

    What Trump did right and Obama did wrong was Trump did not micro-manage the military from the White House and changed the rules of engagement to allow the military to smash ISIS. They used special forces to “paint” targets (Obama did not allow this). Obama said it had to 100% certain no civilians would get hurt in US attacks (an impossible standard). So using the Kurds and allowing the field commanders to conduct the war on ISIS worked. This to Trumps credit. Now he should let them continue doing their job.

  5. @ yamit82:
    Hello, Yamit.

    “Now the Kurds an ally of America is seeking protection from enemies of America (Russia and Syria) from another ally of America (Turkey) ONLY IN THE ME!!”

    You know they’re all “frenemies”, even the Russians and Syrians. Yes, the Middle East has its own flavor of treachery. The Hellenistic period was replete with kings inviting one another for dinner, then stabbing them to death. The Campbells of Scotland have a similar reputation, though I believe that incident was at breakfast. The Jewish High Priest once had thousands of Jews crucified over an insult; and even of the Nordic Varangians, it’s said that whenever a chief wanted to poop in the woods, he had to have four body guards to protect him from his friends.

    The Syrian Kurds spent some time allied with the US, after a longer time allied with the Russians and Syrians. The Iraqi Kurds have been allied to the Turks, the Iranians, the Americans and Saddam Hussein.

    Less than a year ago, Eric Mandel, the featured speaker in the OP, said

    “Your choices in Syria are bad and worse, but figuring out what’s worse isn’t easy. Any wise strategist knows well enough that an American “friend” in the Levant, other than Israel, is only a temporary friend sharing for the moment a strategic interest.”

    — https://thehill.com/opinion/international/375710-is-the-us-doing-more-harm-than-good-in-syria-and-lebanon

    If there’s someone who’s been changeable here, it isn’t President Trump; it’s been his critics.

  6. @ Bear Klein:
    Hi, Bear

    “A senior Republican senator said…”

    I think we’ve all had our fill this year, of anonymous sources. When I see @realDonaldTrump tweet it, I’ll believe it.

  8. Bear Klein Said:

    Graham said Trump was “thinking long and hard about Syria and how to withdraw the forces” after ensuring that ISIS is destroyed, that US-allied Kurdish forces are protected and that “Iran doesn’t become the big winner of our leaving.”

    This is the money quote. Like I said, I couldn’t imagine Trump screwing with the Kurds or changing his policies regarding Iran.

  11. @ Bear Klein:

    It’s becoming clear that trumps announcement of Syria was due to his belief he would score points with his base more than any tactical or strategic reason.

  13. @ Bear Klein:

    Trump seems to change decision according to he speaks to last… Well the Kurds have sought and received protection from Assad and Russia and will never Trust America and especially not Trump ever again….

    Funny America has now screwed the Kurds twice. Once in Iraq when they refused to support Kurdish Independence and sided with Iran and now in Syria,

    Now the Kurds an ally of America is seeking protection from enemies of America (Russia and Syria) from another ally of America (Turkey) ONLY IN THE ME!!

  14. Trump rethinking his Syria Strategy and Withdrawal Plans Again??

    Top Republican indicates Trump rethinking plans to withdraw from Syria
    After meeting president, Lindsey Graham says Trump is now vowing to stay and ‘destroy’ IS before leaving Syria and to make sure ‘Iran doesn’t become the big winner of our leaving.

    A senior Republican senator said Sunday that President Donald Trump had promised to stay in Syria to finish the job of destroying the Islamic State group — just days after announcing he would be withdrawing troops immediately.

    “The president understands the need to finish the job,” Graham told reporters outside the White House after what he described as a two-hour lunch meeting.

    WASHINGTON (AFP) — A senior Republican senator said Sunday that President Donald Trump had promised to stay in Syria to finish the job of destroying the Islamic State group — just days after announcing he would be withdrawing troops immediately.

    “The president understands the need to finish the job,” Graham told reporters outside the White House after what he described as a two-hour lunch meeting.

    “He told me some things I didn’t know that made me feel a lot better about where we’re headed in Syria,” the South Carolina lawmaker said.

    “I think the president is committed to making sure when we leave Syria that ISIS is completely defeated and we are inside the 10-yard line,” he said, using an alternative name for the Islamic State group.

    When Trump tweeted on December 19 that “we have defeated ISIS in Syria,” several military and security experts said he was overstating the case, and warned against a hasty withdrawal.
    ‘Thinking long and hard’

    Graham said Trump was “thinking long and hard about Syria and how to withdraw the forces” after ensuring that ISIS is destroyed, that US-allied Kurdish forces are protected and that “Iran doesn’t become the big winner of our leaving.”

    “I’m going to ask the president to do something that President Obama would never do: reconsider,” he said.

    Graham said he knew Trump was “frustrated” by his limited options in Syria.

    “The president is reconsidering how we would do this,” Graham said.

    “I get it. We’re not the policemen of the world here.”

    He added: “I’m going to ask him to sit down with his generals and reconsider how to do this. Slow it down. Make sure we get it right.”
    A Trump announcement?

    Kellyanne Conway, a close Trump adviser, seemed to hint that the president might be rethinking his withdrawal plans.

    “In Iraq he had a closed-door meeting and he said watch what happens… Watch what happens because he’s got plans and I won’t get ahead of his announcement, but he did want me to convey that,” she said on “Fox News Sunday.”

    Trump’s abrupt decision on Syria stunned regional players, US politicians of both parties and military leaders, who expressed surprise that such a major decision would be announced after apparently so little advance consultation, against the advice of his national security advisers — and on Twitter.

    For full article go to: https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-republican-indicates-trump-rethinking-plans-to-withdraw-from-syria/

    ’

  15. Hi, Adam

    I just saw that my post was in response to SOMEONE, but it seems to be the first in queue. Odd.

    I honestly have lost interest in Syria for the moment. Our troops are still there, and the principals are all engaged in shuttle diplomacy. On the ground, there is more misinformation than actual movement.

    In the US, on the other hand, I call Chuck Schumer our country’s most dangerous enemy — he wants to leave our borders unsecured, abolish our immigration enforcement, and has even been instrumental in stripping the TSA and Coast Guard of its pay. What a shameful, disgusting person! In a few days, he will no longer be Enemy #1: Nancy Pelosi will take his place. These people are a REAL threat to our country; and because they are elected by US citizens, I have to conclude that America is disintegrating at the grass roots level.

    I don’t see how what is (not) happening in Syria even bears talking about, by comparison.

  16. The US President tweeted on his Twitter account that Iran, Russia and other countries were ISIS’s local enemies and that the US, on its part, had ended its activity against ISIS in Syria (President Trump’s official Twitter account, December 20, 2018).

    This, I think, is the key to Trump’s thinking. Russia, Iran and Syria will exhaust their resources fighting ISIS, while the US the trouble of having to do the job itself.

  17. The following is the Meir Amit Intelligence Center’s latest report on the situation in Syria post Trump’s withdrawal announcement.The Meir Amit Intelligence Center is closely associated with Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, Israeli military intelligence (Amal), the Shabak, etc. Their take on any situation impacting Israel’s security is always worth studying

    They don’t think ISIS has been defeated in either Syria or Iraq. However, they point out that the Shiite forces , the Syrian Army, and the Russians are all in conflict with ISIS. And they quote Trump to that effect. Clearly, Trump has in mind a “let’s you and him fight” strategy, hoping that America’s enemies in Syria will fight each other to utter exhaustion, weakening them all, including Russia and Iran. He thinks ISIS could actually be “useful” to the United States in this way, by tying down other enemies or potential enemies of the U.S., including Russia.

    Spotlight on Global Jihad (December 20-26, 2018)
    Published: 27/12/2018
    Syrian army artillery fire at an area controlled by the rebels in the Idlib Province (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, December 23, 2018)
    Syrian army artillery fire at an area controlled by the rebels in the Idlib Province (Butulat Al-Jaysh Al-Suri, December 23, 2018)
    Main events of the week

    The most important event of the week was the US announcement that it intended to pull out its military personnel from Syria. The pull-out will reportedly be slow and coordinated and will take several months. According to “senior US officials,” as part of the decision to pull out from Syria, the airstrikes will also cease. The decision was tweeted by President Trump, who stated that the US had defeated the Islamic State in Syria, and therefore there was no reason for the continued military activity of the American forces.
    An ITIC analysis of ISIS’s situation in Syria, Iraq, and the various provinces abroad shows that the organization has not been defeated, even though it was weakened following the collapse of the Islamic Caliphate. After the Caliphate collapsed, ISIS once again changed its methods and adapted itself to the changing realities. During 2018, a process began in which ISIS turned itself into an international terrorist and guerrilla organization based in Syria and Iraq, which operates in a decentralized manner and no longer has to defend a territorial sphere of control (see the ITIC’s document: “The impact of the withdrawal of the American troops from Syria on the campaign against ISIS”).
    A week after President Trump’s announcement, the situation on the ground in the Euphrates Valley is as follows:
    ISIS, encouraged by the US announcement, carried out a number of counterattacks in the important city of Hajin (which had been taken over from ISIS by the SDF before President Trump’s announcement). The SDF forces announced that they had repelled ISIS’s attacks and that their forces controlled most of the city.
    According to the SDF statements, the SDF enjoys Coalition airstrikes, which support it in repelling ISIS’s counterattacks.
    The Syrian army and the forces supporting it sent reinforcements to the Euphrates Valley following the US announcement. The reinforcements are reportedly concentrated in the cities of Albukamal and Al-Mayadeen, west of the Euphrates River.
    A spokesman for one of the Iraqi Shiite militias affiliated with Iran (the “Hezbollah Battalions”) offered the Kurdish forces assistance by his organization and the Syrian army in defending the Syrian-Iraqi border (an indication of Iran’s ambition to expand its influence in the Albukamal area).
    At the same time, ISIS intensified its guerrilla and terror attacks throughout Iraq (planting IEDs on roads, suicide bombing attacks, car bombs, attacks on positions of the Iraqi security forces, sniper fire, and more).
    Concurrently, the intensive activity of ISIS provinces abroad continued. The main event this week was a suicide bombing attack carried out by three suicide bombers at the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli. According to ISIS’s claim of responsibility, dozens of people were killed and wounded in the attack, and the building was set on fire. Another attack was the brutal murder of two Scandinavian tourists in Morocco carried out by a group of young people who had pledged allegiance to ISIS. In addition, ISIS is waging a propaganda campaign calling for ISIS-inspired attacks in Western countries against the backdrop of the Christmas season (deadly attacks in crowded places, ramming attacks and stabbing attacks were expressly mentioned).
    President Trump’s announcement of the withdrawal of the US forces from Syria

    On December 19, 2018, US President Donald Trump announced on his official Twitter account that the US had defeated the Islamic State in Syria. According to him, ISIS was defeated and the US won (“We won”). Therefore, Trump noted, there is no reason to leave the American military personnel in Syria. Spokesman for the Department of State and the Department of Defense said that the United States had begun the process of removing American military personnel from Syria, but stressed that it would continue to work with its partners wherever ISIS operates (Reuters, December 19, 2018). The announcement by the US President was widely opposed by the US administration and led to the resignation of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis (December 20, 2018) and American Special Envoy to the International Coalition, Brett McGurk (December 21, 2018).

    President Trump’s first tweet about the withdrawal of the US forces from Syria (President Trump’s official Twitter account, December 19, 2018)President Trump’s first tweet about the withdrawal of the US forces from Syria
    (President Trump’s official Twitter account, December 19, 2018)

    “Senior US officials” noted that the withdrawal of some 2,000 US troops in Syria would take between 60 and 100 days. The US President tweeted that it would be a slow and highly coordinated pullout of US troops from the area (President Trump’s official Twitter account, December 23, 2018). “Senior US officials” said that as part of the decision by the US to withdraw from Syria, the airstrikes against ISIS would also cease (Reuters, December 20, 2018). On the other hand, a senior Pentagon official said that the Trump administration had not yet decided whether the US would continue the air campaign against ISIS after the US military personnel leave Syria (The Washington Post, December 21, 2018). The US President tweeted on his Twitter account that Iran, Russia and other countries were ISIS’s local enemies and that the US, on its part, had ended its activity against ISIS in Syria (President Trump’s official Twitter account, December 20, 2018).
    Senior US and Turkish officials claimed that the background for President Trump’s decision was a conversation between him and Turkish President Erdo?an on December 14, 2018. During their conversation, Erdo?an claimed that Turkey could handle what was left to be done in the campaign against ISIS on its own, and asked Trump why the Americans were present in Syria (AP, December 21, 2018; Hürriyet Daily News, December 21, 2018). Following President Trump’s announcement, Turkish President Erdo?an said that the Turkish operation (against the Kurds) in the eastern part of the Euphrates would be suspended for the time being (Daily Sabah, Turkey, December 21, 2018). Erdo?an also said that Turkey would take over the fight against ISIS in Syria (Reuters, December 21, 2018).
    In the ground campaign against ISIS in the Syrian arena, the Americans played a secondary role. The brunt of the burden of the fighting was borne by the Syrian army (in central and southern Syria) and the Kurdish SDF (in eastern Syria). In the ITIC’s assessment, the main contribution of the Americans to the Syrian campaign was the intensive air support that they provided to the Kurdish forces fighting against ISIS on the east bank of the Euphrates River. In addition to the air support, some 2,000 American advisors operated in the Kurdish region, contributing to the enhancement of the (already high) military capabilities of the Kurdish forces. This is in addition to the American political backing, which helped the Kurds withstand the heavy pressure exerted on them by Turkey. In the ITIC’s assessment, from a military perspective, the SDF campaign against ISIS east of the Euphrates will suffer if the air support does indeed cease. In addition, the Kurds will suffer a severe blow at the morale and political levels as they will be exposed to increasing pressure on the part of Turkey (and therefore they will be forced to seek a new strategic support in the form of the Syrian regime and Russia).

    Initial responses of the Kurds to the US announcement

    SDF Spokesman Mustafa Bali announced that the Kurds would be forced to withdraw their fighters from the campaign against ISIS, in order to defend their borders (i.e., the Syrian-Turkish border) if they are attacked by the Turks. Speaking in Paris, Îlham Ehmed, former co-chairperson of the Syrian Democratic Council (the SDF’s political wing) also announced that the Kurdish forces are liable to withdraw from the Deir ez-Zor front and take positions along the border with Turkey, in order to curb any attack (Reuters, December 21, 2018).
    SDF Spokesman Kino Gabriel announced that ISIS had stepped up its attacks over the past few days, in the wake of the American decision to remove US troops from Syria (for further details of ISIS’s intensified attacks in the city of Hajin, see below). He added that the American decision would undermine the stability and security prevailing in northern and eastern Syria. The spokesman called on the international community and the International Coalition to adhere to their responsibilities towards the Kurds (SDF Press, December 24, 2018).
    The Idlib area

    Incidents in the Idlib area continue

    This week as well, incidents in the Idlib area continued, mainly between the Syrian army and the jihadi organizations:
    Squads of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham tried to infiltrate into and attack Syrian army positions about 25 km north of Hama. The Syrian army fired machine guns with direct hits at the squads (SANA, December 23, 2018).
    On the night of December 22-23, the Syrian army fired artillery in the north of Al-Ghab Plain at positions and command posts of the Turkestan Islamic Party (a jihadi organization consisting of members of the Muslim minority in China). Many operatives of the organization were either killed or wounded, and fortifications and launching facilities were destroyed (SANA, December 23, 2018).
    On December 19, 2018, a force of the Glory Brigades (affiliated with Al-Qaeda) carried out a sudden attack against a Syrian army checkpoint north of Hama. Dozens of soldiers were reportedly killed or wounded (Zaman Al-Wasl, December 19, 2018).
    Northern Syria

    On December 23, 2018, an IED was activated against an SDF patrol in southern Manbij, on the highway to Aleppo. ISIS claimed responsibility, alleging that three of the passengers were either killed or wounded in the explosion (Al-Sham – Aleppo Province; Amaq, December 24, 2018). It should be recalled that the Turkish president recently threatened to launch a military campaign in Manbij, the main stronghold of the Kurdish forces (with US presence) west of the Euphrates River.
    Eastern Syria

    The campaign over the city of Hajin (updated to December 25, 2018)

    On December 14, 2018, five days before President Trump’s announcement, the SDF forces took over most of Hajin’s territory. Following President Trump’s announcement, ISIS stepped up its counterattacks against the SDF forces. According to the SDF’s Information Office, their forces managed to repel those counterattacks. According to the SDF’s statement, their forces still control most of Hajin’s territory (about 90%). The ISIS attacks were repelled with intensive Coalition air support (SDF Press, December 20, 22, 2018).
    On December 20 and 22, 2018, following President Trump’s announcement, ISIS carried out additional counterattacks against Hajin. In these counterattacks, ISIS operatives used motorcycles and bullet proof vehicles, with dozens of suicide bombers. According to the SDF reports, these attacks were repelled with Coalition air support, According to these reports, ISIS sustained dozens of fatalities (SDF Press, December 20, 22, 2018). Coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets were continued also the following day (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 25, 2018).
    Smoke clouds after Coalition airstrikes in the city of Hajin (SDF Press, December 20, 2018). ISIS’s ATVs and motorcycles moving in the open area during the attack on the SDF (ISIS’s Al-Sham – Baraka Province, December 21, 2018). Right: ISIS’s ATVs and motorcycles moving in the open area during the attack on the SDF (ISIS’s Al-Sham – Baraka Province, December 21, 2018). Left: Smoke clouds after Coalition airstrikes in the city of Hajin (SDF Press, December 20, 2018).

    On December 24, 2018, an ISIS force carried out a large-scale counterattack on the city of Hajin and its environs, using various weapons. According to an SDF statement, the attack was repelled, with dozens of ISIS operatives killed or wounded. A communications center used by ISIS was destroyed, as well as a workshop for making IEDs and car bombs. The SDF repelled the attack with Coalition air support (SDF’s Information Office, December 24, 2018).
    Civilians fleeing from the ISIS enclaves

    On December 23, 2018, in the evening, over thousand civilians, including women, children and elderly people, left the ISIS enclave on the east bank of the Euphrates River towards areas held by the SDF forces. The refugees were transferred to the Al-Omar oilfield, about 48 km southeast of Deir ez-Zor, in preparation for sending them to refugee camps east of the Euphrates River. Thus, on December 23, 2018, the number of refugees from the ISIS enclave rose to 5,000 people, many of them Iraqi citizens. Since November 30, 2018, at least 7,400 civilians including women, children and elderly people had left the ISIS enclave (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 24, 2018). The specific reason for the departure on December 23, 2018, is still unclear to us.
    The large-scale flight of the civilians possibly stems from increasing concerns and fears from ISIS. Civilians who managed to flee reported that ISIS was planning on executing anyone stopped by it during a flight from the area, on account of a “flight to the infidel countries.” On December 19, 2018, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that ISIS was planning to execute three of its operatives on account of “smuggling civilians” out of the enclave (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 24, 2018).
    Sending reinforcements to the Euphrates Valley

    Syrian and Russian media outlets reported that following the announcement of President Trump, the Syrian army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards sent reinforcements to the Euphrates Valley, as a preparation for a military move in the area. According to the various reports, reinforcements belonging to the “Tiger” forces, under the command of Suheil Hassan, arrived in the area. Security personnel of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, as well as a Russian military force, also arrived in the area. The reinforcements were directed to the cities of Albukamal and Al-Mayadeen, south and north of the ISIS enclave in the Euphrates Valley (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights; Deir ez-Zor 24; Enab Baladi; Khotwa; Sputnik, December 22-24, 2018).
    Unconfirmed report on the SDF discussing the release of thousands of ISIS detainees

    The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported (November 20, 2018) that the SDF’s political and military leadership on the east bank of the Euphrates held a discussion on the release of thousands of ISIS operatives and their family members held in prisons and detention camps of the Kurdish forces. According to “reliable sources,” the discussion in question concerns about 1,100 fighters from 31 countries and about 2,080 women and children from 44 countries. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that it had been decided to release them because all the countries of origin, save one, refused to take them back. Therefore, they will be released on Syrian soil in the near future.
    Reactions by Hezbollah Battalions to Trump’s announcement

    Following the announcement by President Trump, Ja’far al-Husseini, the military spokesman for the Hezbollah Battalions, an Iraqi-Shiite militia affiliated with Iran, announced that the Battalions were ready to take part, along with the Syrian army, in defending the Syrian-Kurdish civilians along the border between Syria and Iraq. He added: “We have a long-standing, intense contact with Kurdish command posts in northern Syria. We are aware of the full picture regarding what is going on in northern Syria, including the movements of the American [forces]” (Al-Mayadeen, Lebanon, December 22, 2018).
    Hezbollah Battalions is one of the Iraqi-Shiite militias affiliated with Iran. They are deployed in the Albukamal area in order to create a control area of pro-Iranian forces near the border crossing between Syria and Iraq. This is intended, among other things, to secure the overland logistic route between Iraq and Syria.[1] In the ITIC’s assessment, the announcement of the spokesman for the Hezbollah Battalions is an indication for Iran’s intentions to extend and increase its influence on the Albukamal area through the Shiite militias affiliated with Iran, in the era after the departure of the US military personnel and the expected weakening of the SDF.
    Main developments in Iraq

    During the week in which President Trump announced the pull-back of the US troops from Syria, ISIS stepped up its guerrilla attacks in Iraq. Its activity included planting IEDs on the roads (still the most common modus operandi), suicide bombing attacks, detonation of car bombs, attacks against outposts of the Iraqi security forces, rocket fire, sniper fire, and the execution of an Iraqi “intelligence agent.”
    Documentation of an ISIS suicide bombing attack

    On December 25, 2018, Iraq – Salah al-Din Province released a video documenting a suicide bombing attack against a command post and a position of the Popular Mobilization and the Iraqi security forces southwest of Tikrit. A terrorist driving in a car bomb blew himself up near a position of the Iraqi security forces. Another terrorist, wearing an explosive belt, also took part in the attack. ISIS claims that 17 members of the security forces were killed in the attack and 12 others were wounded (Al-Ghurabaa, December 25, 2018).
    Both terrorists before leaving for the suicide bombing attack (Al-Ghurabaa, December 25, 2018) The The suicide bomber on his way to carry out the attack. Right: The suicide bomber on his way to carry out the attack. Left: Both terrorists before leaving for the suicide bombing attack (Al-Ghurabaa, December 25, 2018)

    The video also documented a night attack of ISIS operatives on an Iraqi army position in the Samarra region. The operatives were equipped with night vision aids. Also documented were sniper shooting, killing an Iraqi soldier, and an execution of an Iraqi intelligence agent. It seems that all of the above took place this past week, although no date appears on the video.
    Following are additional activities carried out by ISIS this past week (based on ISIS’s claim of responsibility):
    Kirkuk Province: On December 19, 2018, ISIS attacked a position of the Iraqi police in the Alas oilfield, Kirkuk area. Two policemen were killed. The ISIS operatives fled the scene after setting fire to the position and seizing weapons (Iraq – Kirkuk Province, December 20, 2018).
    Salah al-Din Province: On December 20, 2018, ISIS claimed responsibility for firing two rockets at Iraqi army and Popular Mobilization targets in the city of Tikrit (Iraq – Salah al-Din Province, December 20, 2018). No casualties were reported.
    Baghdad Province: On December 20, 2018, ISIS announced that its operatives had blown up a house with an IED south of the city of Fallujah. According to ISIS, the man who lived in the house had collaborated with the Iraqi army (Iraq – Fallujah Province, December 20, 2018).
    Al-Anbar Province: On December 20, 2018, ISIS announced that it had hit eight Iraqi soldiers, some of them were wounded and others killed, with an IED which was activated on their truck, west of Haditha (Amaq, December 20, 2018).
    Diyala Province: ISIS announced that on December 22, 2018, its operatives had killed two members of the Iraqi security forces in the Khanaqin area, Diyala Province. The same day, ISIS announced that a Peshmerga fighter was killed and others were wounded in the explosion of an IED planted in the area (Amaq, December 23, 2018).
    Al-Anbar Province: ISIS claimed responsibility for hitting four Iraqi soldiers and destroying their vehicle with an IED in the entrance to the city of Al-Qaim, on the border between Iraq and Syria. Several soldiers were killed and others were wounded (Amaq, December 23, 2018).
    Nineveh Province: ISIS claimed responsibility for killing two Iraqi soldiers and destroying their motorcycle with an IED which was planted in Mosul (Amaq, December 23, 2018).
    Nineveh Province: ISIS claimed responsibility for detonating a car bomb among a Shiite concentration in the city of Tal Afar (about 65 km west of Mosul). According to ISIS, three Shiites were killed and two were wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, December 25, 2018).
    Diyala Province: ISIS activated an IED against the Iraqi army in the rural area south of Baqubah. According to ISIS, two Iraqi soldiers were killed and three were wounded (Shabakat Shumukh, December 25, 2018).
    The activity of the Iraqi security forces

    Following are the main activities carried out by the Iraqi security forces this past week (according to the Iraqi media). These activities focused on the Mosul area:
    After having attacked an Iraqi force, four ISIS operatives were killed in a Coalition airstrike about 20 km west of Mosul (Iraqi News, December 22, 2018).
    Based on intelligence received, the Nineveh Province Intelligence Directorate exposed a terrorist cell comprising five operatives, in the city of Mosul (Al-Sumaria, December 22, 2018).
    The Iraqi security forces located two IEDs and ten mines in various areas of the city of Mosul (Al-Sumaria, December 21, 2018).
    The Iraqi security forces in the Mosul area detained a woman, an ISIS operative which was described as extremely dangerous by the Iraqi Military Intelligence. The terrorist was a family member of ISIS operatives and occupied a security position in ISIS. Her name was not disclosed (Al-Sumaria, December 20, 2018).
    The Iraqi Interior Ministry announced that it had closed 88 social media accounts affiliated with “terrorist elements,” i.e., mainly with ISIS (December 24, 2018). Apparently, the accounts were closed after the ministry approached the managements of the relevant social media, most of them in the United States.
    Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula

    Terrorist attacks against the Egyptian security forces

    ISIS’s Sinai Province announced that it had carried out several terrorist attacks against the Egyptian security forces in northern Sinai:
    December 22, 2018: The Sinai Province claimed responsibility for killing two officers and an Egyptian soldier, and wounding another soldier, by sniper shooting at a military camp in Rafah (Amaq, December 22, 2018).
    December 21, 2018: An Egyptian policeman was killed by a sniper while standing at a checkpoint in Rafah (@omar_hatem1 Twitter account).
    December 19, 2018: The Sinai Province detonated an IED against an Egyptian army bulldozer and destroyed it (ISIS’s Sinai Province, December 20, 2018).
    Thwarting terrorist attacks by the Egyptian security forces

    The Egyptian Interior Ministry announced that on December 23, 2018, it had killed 14 “terrorist operatives” who planned to carry out terrorist attacks against Egyptian security targets in the city of Al-Arish. The terrorist operatives were killed in the exchange of fire with members of the National Security Apparatus, which is subordinate to the Interior Ministry. One of the photos released by the ministry shows an explosive belt found with the terrorist operatives (Facebook page of the Egyptian Interior Ministry, December 23, 2018).
    Explosive belt found with the “terrorist operatives” (Facebook page of the Egyptian Interior Ministry, December 23, 2018)Explosive belt found with the “terrorist operatives”
    (Facebook page of the Egyptian Interior Ministry, December 23, 2018)

    Jihadi activity in other countries

    Murder of two Scandinavian tourists in Morocco

    On December 17, 2018, the bodies of two tourists from Denmark and Norway (one aged 24 and the other aged 28) were found in the Atlas Mountains of Morocco. The two women were on their way to the highest mountain peak in North Africa, which is a popular travel site. The body of one of them was found inside the tent where she was staying and the other outside it (Reuters, December 21, 2018). The murderers apparently raped them and then slit their throats with a knife.
    The Moroccan authorities announced that four suspects who had been arrested on suspicion of committing the murders had pledged allegiance to ISIS. A video of the allegiance ceremony was posted on social media before the murders. On December 21, 2018, Morocco’s Central Bureau of Investigation announced that nine more people had been arrested in Morocco on suspicion of being connected with the murderers (Reuters, December 21, 2018).
    Maren Ueland from Norway (Maren Ueland Facebook page, which was set up in memory of the murdered woman, December 19, 2018). Louisa Vesterager Jespersen from Denmark (Louisa Vesterager Jespersen Facebook page, which was set up in memory of the murdered woman, December 20, 2018). Right: Louisa Vesterager Jespersen from Denmark (Louisa Vesterager Jespersen Facebook page, which was set up in memory of the murdered woman, December 20, 2018). Left: Maren Ueland from Norway (Maren Ueland Facebook page, which was set up in memory of the murdered woman, December 19, 2018).

    Three ISIS operatives suspected of murdering the two Scandinavian tourists in Morocco (Hamdi el@hamdilf Twitter account, December 20, 2018)Three ISIS operatives suspected of murdering the two Scandinavian tourists in Morocco
    (Hamdi el@hamdilf Twitter account, December 20, 2018)

    Suicide bombing attack at the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli

    On the morning of December 25, 2018, three terrorists attacked the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli. The offices in the building were set on fire. The attack began with the explosion of a car bomb near the Foreign Ministry. A suicide bomber then entered the building and blew himself up on the second floor. Another terrorist was killed in the building after a bag that he was carrying exploded. The Libyan security forces reportedly killed a third operative outside the building. The operative was unarmed but was wearing a protective vest. According to a report by the Libyan Ministry of Health, at least three people were killed in the attack, one of them a Foreign Ministry department director, and 10 others were wounded (Akhbar Libya; France 24, December 25, 2018).
    At least two cars on fire at the scene of the combined attack at the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli (Akhbar Libya, December 25, 2018). Smoke rising from the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli (Akhbar Libya, December 25, 2018). Right: Smoke rising from the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli (Akhbar Libya, December 25, 2018). Right: At least two cars on fire at the scene of the combined attack at the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Tripoli (Akhbar Libya, December 25, 2018).

    ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. According to ISIS’s claim of responsibility, the attack was carried out by three terrorists wearing explosive belts and armed with machine guns. The three terrorists broke into the headquarters of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in central Tripoli, killing and wounding 31 members of the security forces and Foreign Ministry officials. The assailants took control of the headquarters for several hours and then set it on fire. The claim of responsibility ends with a threat that the campaign, which began in the city of Sirte, has not ended but actually has expanded (ISIS’s Libya – Tripoli Province, December 25, 2018).
    Killing attack in Kabul

    On December 24, 2018, a car bomb exploded next to a compound in Kabul where government agencies that provide social assistance are located. According to the spokesman for the Afghan deputy interior minister, there were prolonged exchanges of fire between three “terrorist operatives” and the Afghan security forces. According to the spokesman of the Afghan Ministry of Public Health, at least 43 people were killed and 25 were wounded (Khaama Press, December 24, 2018). ISIS’s claim of responsibility for the attack has not yet been found. Based on the modus operandi, it can be assumed that the attack was carried out by ISIS or the Taliban.
    The battle for hearts and minds

    In the past week, there has been an increase in the dissemination of propaganda material (posters, video) by ISIS and the elements supporting it, threatening to carry out attacks against Western countries and Western leaders (to whom they have added Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu). The posters and the video encourage ISIS-inspired terrorist attacks and call for attacks on President Trump and other leaders (Putin, Macron, Netanyahu, and the Pope).
    One of the posters threatens to carry out attacks in the West using drones. The inscriptions and subtitles in the posters and in the video are in English (the video that was distributed by ISIS is Spanish-speaking and includes subtitles in English and Arabic, and also includes messages in French). A video posted by ISIS on its website calls for attacks against a background of photos of a Christmas party. The perpetrator (or perpetrators) of the attacks are called upon to mingle with the partygoers, dress appropriately in order to conceal their identity as well as the explosives in their possession, and then to detonate them. The video explicitly calls for ramming and stabbing attacks.
    The ITIC’s impression is that this is an organized campaign. It should be taken into account that this campaign is liable to increase the motivation of ISIS supporters around the world, especially in Western countries, to carry out attacks. This is liable to lead to attacks, which will be carried out during the holiday season, including deadly attacks such as ramming, stabbing, and shooting attacks[2].

    Poster which was disseminated on Telegram by ISIS supporters, reading: “Just terror – Your holidays are approaching, and so are the [dates] of your funerals” (Al-Abd al-Faqir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018). Poster reading: “Your holidays are approaching, and so are the [dates] of your funerals” (Al-Abd al-Faqir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018). Right: Poster reading: “Your holidays are approaching, and so are the [dates] of your funerals” (Al-Abd al-Faqir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018). Left: Poster which was disseminated on Telegram by ISIS supporters, reading: “Just terror – Your holidays are approaching, and so are the [dates] of your funerals” (Al-Abd al-Faqir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018).

    Poster in Spanish calling on the “Soldiers of Allah” to “get ready,” with Christmas celebrations in the background (ISIS’s Muntasir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018). poster encouraging attacks on Christian holidays (ISIS-affiliated Maharrir al-Ansar Foundation, December 24, 2018). At the top it says Al Andaluzia Publicaciones, i.e., Andalusian Publications. The ones behind this name are apparently ISIS supporters from Spain who translate material into Spanish and distribute it. Right: poster encouraging attacks on Christian holidays (ISIS-affiliated Maharrir al-Ansar Foundation, December 24, 2018). At the top it says Al Andaluzia Publicaciones, i.e., Andalusian Publications. The ones behind this name are apparently ISIS supporters from Spain who translate material into Spanish and distribute it. Left: Poster in Spanish calling on the “Soldiers of Allah” to “get ready,” with Christmas celebrations in the background (ISIS’s Muntasir Media Foundation, December 24, 2018).

    Spanish-language poster encouraging attacks on Christmas (Telegram, December 24, 2018)Spanish-language poster encouraging attacks on Christmas (Telegram, December 24, 2018)

    [1] See the ITIC’s publication from July 15, 2018: “Increasing the Iranian control of the Albukamal border crossing area – part of Iran’s strategy of establishing an overland supply route connecting Iran with Iraq, Syria and Lebanon (in collaboration with ImageSat International – ISI).” ?
    [2] See the ITIC’s Information Bulletin from December 24, 2018: “ISIS and ISIS Supporters’ Campaign Threatens Christmas Terrorist Attacks.” ?

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  18. “Why was Iraq more important than Syria?”

    I don’t think anyone said it is more “important”. It is certainly better located, strategically. NE Syria has the same problem Poland had before WWII — it was isolated from the allies. Iraq, especially Anbar Province, does not have that problem.