How Turkey, Iran and Russia will try to agree on eastern Syria

T. Belman. As Frantzman says “for now”.  We have yet to hear how Trump will use his allies to stand in for the US troops that are leaving. I do not believe that Trump is handing this territory over to these thugs on a silver platter.

All evidence points to these countries cooperating in eastern Syria for now.

By Seth Frantzman, JPOST

The sudden decision by US President Donald Trump to withdraw from eastern Syria has shocked the Middle East, particularly Iran, Russia and Turkey which all play a major role in Syria and who have been meeting frequently about resolving the conflict there. In the last two weeks, as Trump was ramping up to announce he was leaving, the foreign ministers of the three countries met in Geneva and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani went to Turkey. These countries could be on a collision course now in how to partition eastern Syria as the US leaves, but more unites them than divides them.

Iran and Russia are the main backers of the Syrian regime whereas Turkey ostensibly backs the Syrian opposition. However, in recent months these three countries have grown increasingly closer. Initially this was because they all opposed the US role in eastern Syria. Turkey opposed the US working the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara views as a terrorist organization linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Iran objected to the US role in eastern Syria because Iran not only excoriates US meddling in Syria in general, but also because of tensions with the Trump administration. Senior administration officials, including John Bolton and Washington’s main Syria diplomat James Jeffrey, indicated the US would be staying in Syria for the long term and would seek to have Iran leave the country. Then Trump decided to leave and Iran sees a major victory. Russia also opposed the US role in Syria.

Turkey’s main concern in Syria is the YPG. Turkey will not leave Syria “to the fate of the PKK,” the Turkish president said this week. Now Turkey has massed troops at the border with eastern Syria as the US indicates it will coordinate its withdrawal with Ankara. On December 12, Turkey claimed there was no ISIS threat in Syria, but now it is advancing a narrative that its involvement in Syria is about fighting ISIS and the YPG. Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the YPG must not benefit from US withdrawal. He also indicated that the current joint patrols with the US near Manbij would lead to some kind of road map, apparently meaning Turkey or those it supports might have a role in Manbij soon. Around 15,000 Syrian rebels may help Turkey’s offensive into the partly Kurdish area of northern and eastern Syria. Some of these rebel groups were seen driving toward the frontline on Monday.

Iran’s state media and politicians have a different view on eastern Syria, as does Iran’s Syrian regime ally. In India, the Syrian ambassador said that the US had failed in Syria and was leaving. He claimed Syria had defeated ISIS, not the US. He emphasized the Syria-Iran-Russia alliance, and noted that Russian troops were in Syria legally, unlike the US which was “illegally” in Syria.

Iran and Turkey both slammed Israel this week, and in both countries Israel is viewed as supporting Kurdish aspirations in Syria, which unites Turkey and Iran on this issue. Rouhani said the US was more isolated than ever as it withdraws, but cautioned that “the Zionists” would continue the “US hostile plots against the Iranian nation.” Turkey has responded harshly to Israel recently, with the president, foreign minister and defense ministry slamming Israel. On Tuesday, the Defense Ministry accused Israel of “baseless” claims after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Turkey of massacring Kurds. Iranian diplomats have asserted that Israel loses through the US withdrawing support for Kurdish forces in eastern Syria.

Syrian state media and Turkish media have also emphasized opposition to France’s continued role in eastern Syria. France is part of the US-led coalition and appears set to stay in eastern Syria as the US leaves. Syrian rebel groups told Turkey’s Anadolu Agency that they opposed France staying. Syrian diplomats said the same.

Now Iran’s media, which can be interpreted as the Tehran regime’s official stance, emphasizes several goals in Syria. It highlights the Kurdish concern at Washington’s “stab” in the back. Iranian diplomats say they understand Turkey’s concerns about the YPG but that any operation by Iran’s “Turkish brothers” must be done with the “consent of Damascus.” Iran opposes Kurdish autonomy, but also a major Turkish invasion. At the same time, Iran’s Press TV highlights that the YPG is open to the Syrian government “protecting Syria’s sovereign borders,” meaning an agreement between the YPG and Damascus. Such an agreement already exists in a way because there are Syrian regime forces in eastern Syria in Hasakah and in Qamishli.

Turkey says its operation to push into eastern Syria and clear the border area of YPG is ready. Iran says that it should be at the consent of the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Russia is selling the S-400 to Ankara. In this triangle each player has leverage. The S-400 deal gives Turkey leverage. Turkey also has a sanctions exemption for trade with Iran, which Iran wants. Iran and Russia also recently held a joint military meeting in Tehran on Monday.

The goal of Russia will be to broker a deal as it did in Idlib. The goal of the Syrian regime will be to get back as much of its country as it can, easily and quickly. Iran’s goal is to grab influence. Turkey’s desire is to take the border area without clashing with the regime. For that to happen, Russia and the Syrian regime must give Turkey permission to use Syria’s airspace, as they have in the past in operations when Turkey led against the YPG in Afrin.

All evidence points to these countries cooperating in eastern Syria for now. It is a complex cooperation, but their joint opposition to the US and other mutual economic interests, as well as Turkish and Iranian antipathy for Israel, and concerns about Kurdish autonomy, lend themselves to peaceful discussions, not a new war. The Kurdish groups also know they can’t face all these countries and will need an agreement with someone to protect their areas.

December 26, 2018 | 4 Comments »

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  1. An intersting video from i24 on the situation in Syria, available on Arutz Sheva. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/256723. Trump eager to sell U.S. F-35s, antiimissile missiles to Turkey, one of his motives for rapproachment with Erdogan. Consistent with Trump’s policy of trying to market U.S. arms exports around the world, which in turn is part of his efforts to promote industrial production in th the U.S. and keep manufacturing jobs here. He is also supporting arms sales to Saudi Arabia despite the Kashoggi affair. However arms sales to Turkey are not a good idea as long as Erdogan and company remain in power. Other interesting items: The YPG is handing over some of its positions to Assad’s army. This will put Turkey in a direct conflict with the Syrian regime if it attacks these positions, and perhaps also with Syrias allies Russia and Iran. The ‘pro-Turkish” militiamen headed towards the Kurdish areas to support the Turkish army invasion seem to be members of the Syrian “rebel” groups in the Hama area that have long been supported and funded by the U.S. Will Assad’s regime now move into the remaining pockets of “rebel” held territory in this area, and thereby consolidate control over western Syria? Stay tuned.

  2. Franzman says that although the U.S. is withdrawing its troops from the Kurdish areas, France is not. I wonder if there are also still British commandos in the area. In the past, they have been active against ISIS in Syria, and even eliminated some key IS officers. It looks like Trump is trying to get U.S. allies to take over U.S. role in Syria–mainly Israel, but also to some extent, perhaps, France.

  3. More from Seth Franzman on Israeli bombing of Damascus following Trump announcement.

    Were Hezbollah members targeted near Damascus?
    Mountain road from Beirut to Damascus has been frequent target of past airstrikes, but claims that Hezbollah leaders were targeted leaves questions about why they travelled to Syria.

    Supporters of Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah carry pictures of Hezbollah’s late
    Supporters of Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah carry pictures of Hezbollah’s late military leader Imad Moughniyah as Nasrallah appears on a screen to speak at an event to commemorate the deaths of six Hezbollah fighters and an Iranian general killed by an Israeli air strike in Syri. (photo credit: REUTERS/KHALIL HASSAN)
    Hezbollah senior leaders and members were travelling to Damascus during the airstrikes that rocked areas west of the Syrian capital on Tuesday evening. They were reportedly hit during the air strikes leaving many questions as to why they were targeted and who they were.

    Newsweek reported on Wednesday that Hezbollah leaders were targeted in the airstrikes. According to several sources, including the Lebanese website NewLebanon.info, the Hezbollah delegation was journeying to Damascus to board a flight bound for Tehran. They were heading to the funeral for Grand Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, an important Iranian cleric who was head of the Expediency Discernment Council. He passed away on December 24 and senior Iranian religious figures buried him on Wednesday. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei presided at the ceremonies according to Iranian Fars News. It now appears the Hezbollah delegation may have been heading to Damascus to board a flight to Tehran for the important event. Hezbollah and Iranian regime leaders regularly attend each others funerals and ceremonies. For instance IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani went to the grave of Jihad Mughniyeh in 2015 in Beirut.

    A Mahan Air flight left Damascus around 10 in the evening in the midst of the airstrikes. Mahan Air has been designated by the US Treasury Department for its links to the IRGC. Israel Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said in 2016 that Mahan Air was among those flights used by Tehran to supply Hezbollah. However these flights could fly directly to Beirut so why would a Hezbollah delegation need to travel to Damascus to board the flight?

    The claim that the Hezbollah members were targeted and that they were traveling for the Shahroudi funeral has not been confirmed. Newsweek reported that a Department of Defense source had told them the strike was “conducted minutes after the leaders board a plane bound for Iran.” Strikes also targeted ammunition warehouses that held precision ammunition. The claim that the Hezbollah members had already boarded a plane has not been corroborated with any footage on the ground that shows a plane being hit. A strike on a plane at a Damascus airport would be a serious escalation. The report may be only partly accurate and may indicate the men were struck on the way to board a blame, not after they had boarded.

    Syria’s state media SANA claims that Syrian air defense had “intercepted hostile missiles fired by Israeli warplanes from Lebanese territory and managed to drop most of the rockets before reaching their targets.” SANA says the airstrikes hit an ammunition depot and wounded only three soldiers. Several Syria observers, including the Twitter account @Syria_SR claimed the airstrikes were more complex than that, involving “55 munition, four waves [of cruise missiles] in 35 minutes and managed to hit 7 times in 2 different locations.” In response Syrian air defense fired 60 missiles to intercept the attack. Several Syrian SA-125 anti-air missiles misfired during the attempt to stop the attack, hitting areas around Damascus and causing confusion.
    Khamenei Claims U.S. Sanctions Aimed At Turning Iranians Against The Government

    If the Hezbollah members were targeted it would not be the first time Hezbollah members have been struck in the same location on the roads that lead from Damascus over the mountains to Lebanon. For instance two Hezbollah members were killed in an airstrike near Dimas in December 2014. In addition in January 2015 “senior Hezbollah figures,” including Jihad Mughniyeh were killed near Quneitra. Mezzeh military airport was also struck in December 2016. Airstrikes also targeted an area near Saboura on the mountain road in November 2016 and in April 2017. The road that passes from Damascus via the Mezzeh military airport and Saboura, Dimas and then over to Lebanon is a 116km stretch of beautiful mountain driving that takes around 2 and a half hours on a normal day of traffic.

    The allegation that the senior Hezbollah members were targeted on their way to the Shahroudi funeral has now been repeated by many sources on social media and online. Why would Hezbollah members expose themselves on the road to Damascus knowing that there have been tensions in the region in recent months. Did they feel safe, hoping Syria’s S-300 air defense system, supplied by Russia in the wake of the downing of a Russian IL-20 in September during an Israeli air strike, would provide them security? Targeted in the past on the same stretch of road they would have known its dangers. It doesn’t answer the final question of why they didn’t board a flight directly from Beirut and save themselves the drive and exposure.

    Hezbollah media and pro-Syrian regime media has been silent on this issue. Iranian regime media has also been silent, discussing only the Syrian air defense system’s “success” at targeting the attack and continuing the story that only a warehouse was hit and several soldiers injured. In coming hours or days the Syrian regime or pro-Hezbollah media may begin to reveal what happened, especially if senior members of the group were killed they will want to hold lavish funerals for the “martyrs.” Hezbollah is often outspoken about these kinds of events. On December 3, for instance, Hezbollah claimed its member had not been hit in an alleged November 29 airstrike south of Damascus. This was to respond to rumors that its members had been targeted. Now the ball is in Hezbollah’s court once again to see if it will respond to the rumors from December 25 regarding its members being targeted.

  4. Below is a more recent article by Franzman, indicating that Israel’s response to Trump’s move has already begun. Israel is reminding everyone concerned that itis not pulling out of Syria, even if Trump is pulling out American soldiers.

    Airstrike in Damascus an embarrassment for Syrian regime at crucial time
    For months it has been relatively quiet.

    rebels
    Free Syrian Army fighters launch a Grad rocket from Halfaya town in Hama province, towards forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar Assad stationed in Zein al-Abidin mountain, Syria September 4, 2016. . (photo credit: REUTERS/AMMAR ABDULLAH/FILE PHOTO)
    Syrian air defense confronted a complex threat over Damascus Tuesday night. It comes after several months of relative quiet for Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime, which is grappling with a crises in eastern Syria as the US withdraws.

    The airstrikes took place as the Syrian state media was seeking to highlight Christmas in Syria. Syria was witnessing a “victory over terrorism,” SANA said. However the airstrikes were the most serious since September when an Israeli airstrike targeted Latakia and resulted in Syrian air defense shooting down a Russian IL-20 aircraft. That incident caused Moscow to give Syria the S-300 system and warn Israeli “hotheads” against further incidents.

    For months it has been relatively quiet. An incident on November 29 and December 9th worked up Damascus as air defenses were activated. But both incidents seemed minor. One was a false alarm apparently. However December 25 was a major escalation. It comes as Syria is seeking to deal with a major crises in eastern Syria as the US withdraws.

    US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal on December 19 and since then there have been discussions about what comes next. Turkey wants to launch a major operation into eastern Syria to strike at the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) which Ankara says are terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The YPG were partners of the US-led Coalition’s anti-ISIS campaign.

    Syrian rebel groups aligned with Turkey have volunteered to help fight the YPG. One group already announced it would attack Manbij in northern Syria.

    For the Syrian regime this is a problem because there are Syrian troops in eastern Syria in Qamishli and Hasakeh. The Syrian regime has amicable relations with the YPG but the regime must rely on Russia and Iran to help negotiate with Turkey in eastern Syria. As Damascus focuses on that, it also wanted a quiet Christmas to highlight stability after seven years of civil war. The airstrikes burst that quiet and will make Damascus wonder if worse is to come.

    Israel has said it struck 200 targets in the last two years throughout Syria. Many of these were near Damascus according to local reports. But Syria thinks that the S-300 and Russia’s support will reduce the airstrikes.

    Instead it appears Syria has not been successful at preventing an airstrike around Damascus. Even though its state media claims it intercepted all the missiles fired at targets near Damascus on December 25, that assertion is unlikely.

    US Withdrawals from Syria

    The Syrian government must now ask itself if Russia is serious about training it to use the S-300 and if the S-300 is effective.

    These two issues relate to how Damascus will concentrate the challenges it still faces. Israel has said that as the US withdraws, Jerusalem will continue to challenge Iran in Syria. In addition there are reports that Russia could offer to help reduce Iranian influence or presence in Syria in return for something.

    Syria’s regime looks at the region and realizes that decisions about what happens in Syria always seem to be outsourced to Moscow, Tehran or Ankara. For instance the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Geneva on December 18 to discuss a constitutional committee for Syria.

    Russian defense officials visited Tehran on December 25 and Iran discussed expanding cooperation with Russia. Russia also speaks directly with Israel and reports indicate that this includes discussions about Syria.

    Syria is trying to rebuild its reputation in the region. The Sudanese leader Omar Bashir went to Damascus on December 16 and Syria’s powerful intelligence chief Ali Mamluk went to Cairo on December 23. Normally that would look like Syria is coming in from the cold in the region, welcoming foreign leaders and working with Arab regimes after years of being treated like a pariah by much of the Arab League.

    But Syria’s regime also wants to secure Damascus and wants to negotiate what happens in Idlib and in eastern Syria. Yet it has to rely on Russia for much of these details. It also has to rely on Russia for improving its air defenses around Damascus. The explosions and wild-firing of missiles on Tuesday illustrates that Damascus has a long way to go to confront airstrikes around its capital.