Interviews with Daniel Pipes: Still Skeptical [of Trump’s Israel Policy]
L’Informale October 19, 2018
This is the English version of an article that appeared originally in Italian as “Con sguardo lucido e disincantato.” The interview was conducted by Niram Ferretti.
Question: The Trump administration seems to be following the logic of MEF’s Israel Victory Project launched in January 2017: it recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, closed the PLO office in Washington, and cut funds to UNRWA and other Palestinians entities. With this, has your initial skepticism about President Trump’s attitude towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict changed?
Answer: I remain skeptical. I see Trump’s grand Middle East goal to weaken the Iranian regime. Toward this end, he has rewarded the Saudis with arms sales and the Israelis with Jerusalem. The steps against the Palestinian Authority serve as pressure on it to come to the table and receive what I expect to be its reward, namely recognition of Palestine with Jerusalem as its capital. If I am right, things will not turn out well.
Q: Do you mean that you think he will be willing to concede East Jerusalem to the Palestinians?
A: There is no legal entity called “East Jerusalem.” The Trump administration has been careful not to specify what it recognizes geographically as the Israeli capital of Jerusalem, leaving open the possibility of its recognizing some portion of it for the capital of so-called Palestine.
Q: Won’t this be in total contrast to his declaration of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the issue of Jerusalem now “off the table.”?
A: I understand Trump’s repeated use of this phrase to mean that the long debate about the U.S. embassy’s location in Israel is now closed. But that still leaves open the putative Palestinian capital. Note that the Russians, in a widely-ignored step on Apr. 6, 2017, announced that “[we recognize] the status of East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian state” and “we view West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.” The U.S. government could do likewise.
Q: It seems to L’Informale that these changes swept away old paradigms, changing the landscape of the Arab-Israeli conflict and offering Israel its best opportunity. Do you agree?
A: We shall see. When the Palestinians do come to the table, things may look much less rosy for Israel.
Q: What would you like to see in the White House plan for Palestinian-Israeli peace?
A: I prefer no plan at all, but instead the U.S. government encouraging the Israelis to win their war with the Palestinians. That means convincing the latter that they cannot achieve their war goal of eliminating the Jewish state, they have lost, and they should instead build their own polity, economy, society, and culture. That’s what we call Israel Victory.
Q: Do you agree with John Bolton’s point of view as stated in 2009, that the two-state paradigm is a “dead-end” solution?
A: Yes – and funny that you should ask. He came out with this statement on Jan. 5, 2009. My similar statement appeared on Jan. 7, 2009.
Q: Peter Mulrean, the director of UNRWA’s Representative Office in New York responded to the Trump administration’s ending of funding to UNRWA with: “There seems to be a gross misunderstanding about what UNRWA does in terms of passing status down to generations, and what UNHCR [United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees] does. Because UNHCR does exactly the same thing. There are Afghan refugees, including children and grandchildren who have received refugee status.” Your reply?
A: Mulrean is playing games.(1) In exceptional cases, yes, UNHCR does allow a second or third generation. But this is unusual, and it does not go beyond the third generation; with Palestinians, it is routine and it goes on unto the Nth generation.
(2) UNRWA also allows other major exceptions unknown to the UNHCR: a Palestinian can acquire nationality and remain a refugee; a Palestinian can be living in “Palestine” and be a refugee.
(3) UNHCR has the clear goal of settling refugees and reducing their numbers. UNRWA has the bizarre goal of keeping refugees in this unhappy status and increasing their numbers.
Q: The Saudi-led bloc of Sunni Arab states shares with the Israel an interest in containing and terminating the Iranian threat. Is this alliance merely one of convenience or does it have long-term implications?
A: Somewhere in between: The alliance exists because of a common threat but as it continues and deepens, it takes on a larger significance. That said, until the Palestinian issue is resolved, relations with Israel will remain fragile and limited.
Q: Sohrab Ahmari wrote in Commentary about the Jamal Khashoggi affair: “We must be mindful that a cruel order is still better than disorder, that a bitter friendship is still better than enmity and friendlessness, and that no Jeffersonian democrats are waiting in the wings among the Saudis.” Do you agree?
 Did 9/11 matter less to Americans than Jamal Khashoggi? |
A: I do. Two additional points:(1) The Khashoggi murder is standard operating procedure in Saudi Arabia – except that he was a journalist living in Washington, so the press went crazy over it.
(2) If 9/11, with 3,000 Americans dead, barely shook the U.S.-Saudi relationship, I find it hard to imagine that the Saudis killing a single one of their subjects, and an ardent Islamist at that, will do much to damage that relationship.
Q: You imply that Saudi Arabia was in some why responsible for 9/11.
A: I do, yes. The George W. Bush administration did its best to hide this fact but most of the facts eventually came out, especially after the partial release of the famous “28 pages” in 2016 which found “incontrovertible evidence that there is support for these terrorists within the Saudi Government.” Or, in the words of the analyst Simon Henderson, “official Saudi money ended up in the pockets of the attackers.”
Q: Relations between Moscow and Jerusalem dropped precipitously after the Syrians downed a Russian plane in Syria. Is a major crisis in store or will pragmatism prevail?
A: The latter: the Russians know they are lying about Israeli responsibility; they need Israeli forces to contain the Iranians in Syria; and they don’t want or need Israeli enmity.
Q: Do you foresee the Iranian regime collapsing in the near future, given the renewed American hostility?
A: It will eventually collapse but I do not know when, nor how much of a role the American sanctions will play. No one predicted the unrest in Tunisia in December 2010 and I doubt anyone can predict when some empty bakery or gas station might spark riots that bring down the Islamic Republic of Iran.
I believe that Trump is sincere about wanting Israel to enjoy peace and security, and that hewants to bring an end to the Arab-Islamic-Iranian war against Israel if he can find a way of doing this. Of course, there are other people in both the executive and legislative branches of government who have other ideas. And he might give in to pressure from the, esecially if the Republicans lost the mid-term elections.
Trumps long-awaited “peace plan” is probably meant too be contingent on the replacement of the Fatah and Hamas regimes in the “Palestinian territories” by a more presentable regime willing to coexist peacefully with Israel. But he will fail in his efforts to install such a regime.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/us-public-opinion-toward-israel/551600/
@ Edgar G.:
Edgar,
You shouldn’t type while drunk.
@ Michael S:
Slow down Paul of Tarsus with your imaginary condemnations…you are having a wild brainstorm……Bear said nothing-not a word- about standing up for “evil” Jews even if they killed his kids and whatever other hyperbolic rubbish you vomited.
He’s more than capable to defend himself, and doesn’t need me to interject. BUT. your diatribe offended me also. ..He’s far too polite and diplomatic to deal with such an obscene accusation as t should be…but I’m not. You owe him, moderate Jews, and Jews in general (of which I am one) a Huge and abject apology. T
They don’t HATE us, they are politically on the other side and in many cases Israel has taken a secondary role behind their self-appointed Tikkum Olam duties. Personally I don’t regard many of them as Jews at all. Soros s not a Jew. He was a Jew when he was a mere kid, but relinquished all that after barmitzvah age.
Kavnaugh was not “persecuted” because he was a Christian…It was not mentioned as an objection. The “persecution” was purely dirty politics that the Dems do all the time, only this time there was more at stake; a Conservative Supreme Court Judgeship…and their hatred of Trump. , That “unwilling woman” was MORE than willing to be “dragged in”….she was part and parcel of the whole scheme to defeat Kavanaugh.. She was acting all the time..a put-up job…You are not keeping up with ALL the news. You should check into Youtube news reports sometimes.
In other words Michael although most of the time you have your head screwed on the right way THIS time you are far off base.
@ Michael S:
Actually I am not at all making fun of Christians. You simply do not understand what persecution of someone or a people for their religion is. Anyway your business believe what you like or not.
Copts (Egyptian Christians) are shot in their churches and homes. They are burned out of their homes. They are physically harassed because of the religion they practice by Islamists in Egypt. That is religious persecution.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear,
I can see you refuse to see the truth, even when you’re tripping and falling over it. You would stick up for your evil fellow Jews like Soros and Shumer and Rosenstein, even if they killed your family and were eating your children for dinner — all because they are “Jews”.
Christians not persecuted? Tell me, was Judge Kavanaugh a Jew? Those senators and cabinet ministers, who can’t even eat in peace in restaurants: are they Jews? Is Donald Trump a Jew? No — they are all Christians, and their tormentors, like Shumer and Feinstein and that legal team that dragged that unwilling woman into the Senate hearings to accuse him and humiliate her, are Jews.
If you want to get a fingerhold on reality, stop apologizing for the US Jews who hate you, hate me and hate Israel. In the end, those “brothers” of yours will desert their religion and their ancestors, and turn on you; and you will find that your only true friends are Christians that you are now making fun of.
@ Michael S:
Christians are persecuted in the middle east big time. In fact the only country they have a growing population is in Israel. I actually find it comical when US Christians claim they are persecuted against. The far left certainly challenges them on social issues but persecuted give me a break.
How many pogroms and killing of Christians because they are Christians are taking place in the USA? Then compare to the Copts in Egypt for one. This is persecution. Take the persecution complex and put the energy into helping Christians all over the middle east.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear,
There’s one thing you need to get straight: If you’re a Jew who supports Israel, the majority of US Jews are NOT your friends. In fact, they are your worst enemies. Stop sticking up for them — they are in the wrong, and they are dangerous not only to Israel, but to other schmucks like me who seem to be in their way.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear,
I think you’re being altogether too touchy. During this election cycle, it is elderly white males who are being singled out for persecution, and especially Christians; and their tormentors are nearly always leftist Democrats — which you correctly point out, are led by Jews like Soros and Shumer. If anyone should be touchy, it is I..
@ Michael S:
Michael yes a large majority of US Jews are Democrats but NOT all! They are a small number and only in a few cases do they matter by electoral count. Some visible Jews are leaders and important Democrats.
When people point out that the JEWS are working against so and so or this and that, it makes one wonder why this is being pointed out in some cases. Especially when it is being repeatedly so done.
I do not believe that Trump will hurt Israel regardless of what he says.
He has done nothing to hurt us so far.
@ Bear Klein:
US Blacks and US Jews are the greatest supporters of the Democratic Party.
“Overall, seven-in-ten Jews (including 68% of Jews by religion and 78% of Jews of no religion) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 22% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.”
— http://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/chapter-6-social-and-political-views/
I’m not making this up. US Jews are so heavily Democratic, they may very well provide the margin needed to elect the Dems in key races. These are hard facts, not hyperbole.
@ Michael S:
US Jewish Community is not monolithic. There GOP Jews and others pro Trump and Israel. So try not to include all in your statements. Yes a large amount vote Democrat. I believe you probably know better and over generalized like many people do including ex-pat American Jews living in Israel (most who are very pro Trump).
If the following report is accurate and Trump means what was allegedly said Pipes would correct to be concerned.
In 2016, Dr. Pipes jumped the gun and became a “Never Trumper”. Since Trump has been in office, creating the most egalitarian and prosperous society our country has ever known, he has walked back his position somewhat.
Pipes’s observations are all correct. However, they will become moot points if the Democrats win the House in the coming elections. That scenario portends disaster for the US and trouble for Israel, far beyond any woes the current POTUS can come up with.
Meanwhile, the US Jewish community is working hard to destroy both Trump and the US:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/poll-finds-vast-majority-american-jews-vote-democrat-58583111
I hope they fail.