T. Belman. The above title is misleading. Jordan and Israel are the two-states. Singer is moving closer and closer to my plan. He may or may not be suggesting Jordanian sovereignty over Area As. I am against Jordanian sovereignty over these lands. Israel should be sovereign and should have the right to legislate regarding them and also the right to enter for security reasons.
What I envisage is that Jordan replaces the PA as the administrator. Whether Jordanian law should apply rather than Israel law is worthy of consideration. Just as American expats vote in US elections, it is entirely up to Jordan to enable Palestinians in Area As to also vote in Jordan elections.
He still insists that the king will agree to such a plan. I don’t believe it for a second. Besides there are many reasons to replace him.
By David Singer
Creating another Palestinian Arab state – in addition to Jordan – has been seemingly consigned to the garbage bin of history following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s CNN interview on 28 September.
President Trump had just told Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly:
“I like two-state solution. I like two-state solution. That’s what I think works best. I don’t even have to speak to anybody, that’s my feeling.”
When asked if he was prepared to commit to a two-state solution – Netanyahu told his CNN interviewer:
“I’ve discovered that if you use labels you are not going to get very far because different people mean different things when they say “states”. So rather than talk about labels, I like to talk about substance”
Questioned on what he would like to see – Netanyahu replied:
“What I would like to see is that the Palestinians will have all the powers to govern themselves and not all the powers that will threaten us. What that means is that in the tiny area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea – it’s all about 50 kilometres wide – that’s where the Palestinians live and the Israelis live – in that area under any peace agreement or without a peace agreement – Israel has to have the dominant power, the military power, overriding security power …”
Netanyahu then stressed:
“Israel has to have the overriding security, not the UN, not Canadian Mounties, not — I don’t know — Austrian or Australian forces — Israeli forces have to have the security control, otherwise, that place will be taken over by Islamist terrorists, either Daesh, ISIS or Hamas or Iran, all of the above, and that’s my condition.”
Trump’s upcoming peace plan slated for release in 2-4 months needs to deal with Netanyahu’s concerns if it is to win Israel’s backing.
Israel’s security demands would best be satisfied by part of the West Bank being reunified with Jordan to create a Jordanian enclave in the West Bank – with the remainder of the West Bank being annexed by Israel.
This solution would enable Israel to:
1. Control access and egress between the West Bank and Jordan
2. Maintain security control for the entire area from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea
3. Ensure the enclave be demilitarized and remain demilitarized
The enclave’s residents would acquire Jordanian citizenship. Jordanian law would apply in the enclave – which could be divided into any number of electoral divisions whose residents would choose their representatives to sit in the Jordanian Parliament.
The PLO has already rejected Trump’s peace plan – sight unseen – opening the door for Jordan – at peace with Israel since signing their 1994 Peace Treaty – to fill the negotiating void necessary to create this Jordanian enclave.
Israel’s former Foreign Minister Moshe Arens presciently stated on January 11, 1989:
“Jordan is a Palestinian state. And it is with Jordan that we must decide where the border will run…. Should the border follow the Jordan River, as it does today, or should it be west of the Jordan, as the Jordanians would like?”
I would suggest therefore that, when it comes to talking about territory there is only one negotiating party acceptable to the government of Israel. That party is the existing Palestinian state of Jordan.”
Creating a Jordanian enclave in the West Bank with Israel annexing the remainder could be – in Trump’s own words:
“the ultimate deal…as a deal maker, I’d like to do…the deal that can’t be made. And do it for humanity’s sake.”
Don’t underestimate Trump’s deal-making ability to end what he himself has called “the war that never ends”.
Ted Belman Said:
That is my opinion based on my analysis. You have a different opinion. Guess we will just have to wait and find out what is in Trump’s plan. We could both be proven wrong.
@ Bear Klein:
I’ve been reading the comments carefully, and I must fully agree with you. We are both on exactly the same step as regards the Arabs. They are indoctrinated from birth then inculcated and drowned with propaganda. Enclaves- inclaves, outclaves, will not take away these homicidal and endemic manias. The closer together they are, gathered in purported enclaves, the more their imams will drive them crazy with blood lust…… Gaza is an enclave, and one might call YESHA another larger enclave with no sea access, no ports, airports, nor anything but a kind of local internal rule; land-locked. no outlet save through a cross-river dictatorship.. A collection of potential Gazas, which might even not acknowledge the over rule of the Kinglet.
So there could be periodical terrorist incursions as always, from any enclave, which means that it changes nothing. Even separated from one another, they will easily find way to communicate and exchange people. The Jewish Liberalism will never accept keeping families apart as would happen; also goods exchanges,and more… Tthere would be constant -monitored maybe- people and vehicle traffic between them.
A worse military situation than presently, and occupying large numbers of IDF permanently. Just my opinion.
@ david singer:Singer said:
Why would this change the mindset of the Arabs who were brought up to kill Jews and were told that Israel has no right to exist. We have Jordanians on the Temple Mount now and it is a mess. Terrorists must be destroyed and gotten rid of. Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah all want Israel gone and could care less about the King you believe is a miracle worker.
When you speak to your boss the King next tell him to agree to build a city for a million Pal-Arabs in Jordan and give them all citizenship under the Pal-Jordanian right of return. If he agrees to that we will get him money to start the project. But be sure to tell him not to step west of the River!
david singer Said:
Says who. Why not?
Bear Klein Said:
A demilitarized Jordanian enclave in Judea and Samaria will ensure your above concerns are met.
@ Ted Belman:
Understood. The only problem is that Mudar is in no position to negotiate with Israel. Abdullah is. Trump will not be proposing a plan based on Mudar assuming power and replacing Abdullah.
The issue is that there are 1000s of Arab terrorists in J&S. The Pals want to destroy Israel and not make peace with it. Israel must rid itself of the terrorists and destroy all hope of Pal state west of the Jordan River.
It would be great if Jordan was to was to agree to allow Pal-Arabs to emigrate to Jordan from Israel (including J&S) or elsewhere. Problem is assisted by this as far as diplomatic pressure is concerned. It does not solve the problem of enemy aliens living within Israel or along its borders such as Gaza.
The GOI needs to act decisively to solve this problem. Gaza (which is a defacto Pal-Arab State) is just an open wound that is allowed to fester with daily fires literally and weekly attacks on the border. So instead of initiating a decisive military action against Gaza, Lieberman allows Qatar to buy Israel fuel to send to Hamas so the lights will not go out. Reward for this was an attack on the border fence and the soldiers manning it.
Someone please buy Lieberman a night-light so he will not be scared when the lights go out in Gaza. His talk prior to becoming Def. Minister was just that hollow political tough guy talk.
@ david singer:
If they don’t agree, that’s OK. The Jordan R will remain the agreed border.. The parties could still agree to others things if they wanted. This is MJudar’s position. He accepts the border and wants agreements on other things.
@ Ted Belman:
Yes Ted – Jordan can ask for more in direct negotiations with Israel and Israel can refuse their request.
If that happens the negotiations will end up in the dustbin of history.
Getting those negotiations to take place is what I believe must happen if there is to be any hope of ending the 100 years old conflict.
The PLO and Israel failed after 21 years of fruitless negotations over the same territory. Time to see if Israel and Jordan can do any better since they are, after all, the two successsor states to the last remaining areas of the Mandate where sovereignty still remains undetermined.
david singer Said:
I have no idea what that means..
david singer Said:
I know what “permanent, secure and recognized international boundary between Jordan and Israel: means. i.e., just what it says. As for the rest, I think you are suggesting that Jordan can ask for more. I don’t see that at all. I see no indication that Israel can not refuse their request.
I believe that your interpretation of these clauses is self-serving.
@ david singer:
Except that was NOT the intention when drafted.
Nor is it the desire of Israel or Jordan to change the border. Only Singer.
@ Ted Belman:
Interesting that you were not aware of Articles 3(1) and articles 3(2) of the Peace Treaty.
More interesting that as a lawyer you are unable to understand their relevance. These two clauses leave open that the border between Israel and Jordan could possibly be redrawn and renegotiated in the future because sovereignty still remained unallocated in Judea and Samaria.
@ Ted Belman:
Jordan and Israel had a clear cut border established. However, Jordan did not want to get into if the land in Judea/Samaria/Eastern Jerusalem was Israeli or “Palestinian”. Jordan had given up their claims to the land. Singer is interested in reversing history.
@ david singer:
I wasn’t aware of it and don’t understand of what relevance it is. Perhaps you can explain.
Ted Belman Said:
This statement apparently shows your unawareness of articles 3(1) and 3(2) of the Peace Treaty.
” 3(1) The international boundary between Jordan and Israel is delimited with reference to the boundary definition under the Mandate as is shown in Annex I (a), on the mapping materials attached thereto and coordinates specified therein.
3(2). The boundary, as set out in Annex I (a), is the permanent, secure and recognized international boundary between Jordan and Israel, without prejudice to the status of any territories that came under Israeli military government control in 1967″
@ david singer:
To start with there is nothing to negotiate. Jordan and Israel have a Peace Treaty with the Jordan River as the border.
No peace plan will be tabled. There will be no peace process. Instead Jordan and Israel will discuss cooperation in security and defense and in economic matters.
The PA will whither and die as will their phony Palestinian narrative.
@ Ted Belman:
You can’t create a state for a fictitious non existent nation. The Arabs should join their brethren in the 21 Arab states and get out of Israel.
@ david singer:
It ain’t going to happen. Israel will have full sovereignty to the Jordan River. Mudar will administer the A areas.
@ david singer:
I do not know you personally so it is not my intent to insult you! Israel needs to reduce the amount of Arabs in Judea/Samaria. Israel could unleash horrors on itself by bringing hostile Arabs to govern cities in its midst. Some of these Arab Cities in are literally a few miles from major Israeli population centers.
You clearly have no feel of the hate of the Arabs including Jordanians do for Jews and Israelis. Jordan will not let a Jew wearing a kippa enter it, normally. You have a theoretically belief that does not correspond to what goes on, on the ground.
Anyway I am sure if a Jordanian solider opened fire on a bunch of Israeli school girls that would get you to change your mind. Oh yeah, that happen but you still want to bring more of these occurrences to Israel (not intentionally but de-facto by your ideas).
Jordan illegally captured Judea/Samaria in the 1948 (you really sound like the Kings advisor).
@ Bear Klein:
Fair comment.
Will Trump propose anyone to rule the self-governing entity? Will that entity issue passports and grant citizenship?
You may well be right – but I still feel a Jordanian enclave in the West Bank is what Trump will be proposing. His plan must be acceptable to Israel and Jordan to get them to negotiate. Reunifying the West Bank with Jordan and returning to Arab control and sovereignty land that was lost in the Six Day War seems an attractive proposal that Jordan would be foolish to turn down.
@ Ted Belman:
What do you think then will be included in Trump’s proposal?
Negotiations between Israel and Mudar when he topples Abdullah?
My conjecture because I do not know what I do not know is that the Trump plan is. It may be something similar to what came out of the Israeli think tank. A self governing entity on the Municipal Level that will cut parts out of Area C to make it contiguous.
Heavy on economic projects. Israel in charge of all Security including the Jordan Valley but Israel asked to give up parts of Area C.
Then as I said I do not know. I know one of the Trump Team from before the start of the his administration but they actually DO NOT LEAK info certainly not to me. They let it out when they are ready intentionally.
Like it or not this is the deal that is coming down.
Trump’s Deal of the Century
Friedman just emphasized that a new Palestinian state will not be created. Instead, he emphasized that the deal would be good for Palestinians. He also said no federation.
@ Bear Klein:
So what then do you think Trump’s plan will be?
I could well be wrong – but based on what has been said by Trump and Netanyahu – I think there is a good chance “the enclave solution” could be the favoured approach.
There is going to be a plan – what do you think it will say?
@ david singer:
Do not believe it is happening no matter how you word it or explain it. Trump’s plan is not your concept! Israel needs to depend on Israel and get rid of the terrorists and find a constructive way to assist the emigration of Arabs elsewhere in as large a numbers as feasible.
@ Bear Klein:
Confederation with Jordan is an entirely different concept to that of a Jordanian enclave being created in Judea and Samaria.
Under the enclave plan Israel would control all the land West of the Jordan River. Under a confederation it would not.
@ david singer:
Israel needs to depend on Israel. If a government of Jordan would ever agree to also be Jordan/Palestine and allow emigration of the Pal-Arabs from Israel or elsewhere to there, that could be a good thing.
Israel needs to control all the land west of the Jordan River. Every terror attack with dead Jews always reminds us that Arabs in our midst are a danger and this danger needs to be reduced. These are very painful reminders.
By the way Jason Greenblat of the Trump Administration told the Times of Israel no confederation with Jordan is on the table in the Trump plan.
@ Bear Klein:
Would Ted’s faith in Mudar Zahran also lead you to conclude Ted was being amazingly naive?
@ david singer:
The ex-foreign minister of Jordan was quoted as saying if they were strong enough they would capture Haifa. They only do not do it because they are not capable militarily.
Your faith in the King and the State of Jordan is amazingly naive.
Sebastien Zorn Said:
I don’t think Mudar Zahran would endorse your comments.
Ted should get Mudar to respond and also let us know whether he [Ted] supports your view.
I don’t – but you are entitled to your opinion.
@ david singer:
There was more peace between Israel and Jordan in the time between Jordan’s defeat and the treaty than after. Muslims don’t honor.treaties but they respect the.threat of force because they are just gangsters. The closest we can ever get to peace is to rid them from our midst and keep them in a perpetual state of.fear.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted
The maintenance of the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty for almost 40 years and the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty for almost 20 years in a Middle East in a constant state of turmoil and upheaval during this long period has been nothing short of amazing.
Why would you want to risk these treaties falling apart by replacing Abdullah with Mudar after 96 years of stable Hashemite rule – a track record unrivalled in any other Arab state?
@ david singer:
The Hashamites would not have survived without the backing of Israel and the US. The same goes for Mudar.
Also I see a lot of short term gains from a deal with Jordan because it brings about the end of UNRWA, and the PA and the limbo of J&S. They are worth the risk of having a more unstable Jordan.
I have been wondering of what value is an agreement with a dictator. Does he have any legitamacy to make a deal or must the leader be elected or have the support of the people? How secure is any agreement between countries especially if they are run by dictators. The Arabs are forever cancelling agreements.. When Morsi came to power in Egypt, there was talk about cancelling the 30 some year old peace agreement..
Therefor an agreement with Mudar’s Jordan must be followed up by Israel putting facts on the ground and incuding Arab emigration,to make it unassailable. The more we act on an agreement, the more stable it is.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted:
Does your view equally apply if King Abdullah rules Jordan or if Mudar rules Jordan?
Abdullah and the Hashemites have had a pretty good run for the last 96 years dealing with terrorists. Will Mudar be able to maintain that good record if Abdullah resigns or is toppled?
@ woolymammoth:
Very.
Ted, your points are well taken. how sure are you though that a future Jordan does not consolidate with a terrorist regime/
Like I said, time will tell. We should know before the end of the year.
Ted:
1. The possible creation of a Jordan enclave in Judea and Samaria has never been publicly proposed by me in the 40 years since I started the Jordan is Palestine Committee. My sole concern has been to advocate for Israel and Jordan – the two successor states to the Mandate – to sit down and negotiate on the allocation of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria between their two respective states.
2. The Jordan enclave is my analysis of what Trump’s upcoming peace plan could be proposing after last week’s events at the UN involving meetings between Trump and Netayahu and subsequent press conferences.
3. Any suggestion that Trump’s possible enclave plan has any relationship to that being propounded by you and Mudar is misleading for the following two reasons:
(i) A Jordan enclave in Judea and Samaria would see Jordan gaining sovereignty in the designated enclave. Your plan sees no sovereignty for Jordan in any part of Judea and Samaria.
(ii) Your plan can only be implemented if Abdullah is replaced by Mudar. A Jordan enclave can be created with Abdullah’s agreement and without Abdullah being replaced.
If Abdullah does not agree to negotiate on Trump’s upcoming proposals – then Israel – bereft of any Arab negotiating partner – will in my opinion then be entitled to take such unilateral action in Judea and Samaria as it considers is best in its national interest.
You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink after 40 years of trying ….
Singer’s solution is appeasement. Jordan law needs to end at the river.