There is a revolution developing in Iran against the Shia theocrats. The main reason for it is simple, “bad governance” by the regime.
Religion and Ideology Feed No One
Massive corruption and embezzlement has lead to higher unemployment, and there is a complete a lack of social liberties or accountability. These factors have created a state so poorly governed that even the regime’s most devoutly loyal are struggling to survive.
The regime has historically blamed its economic failures on the West, specifically the US and Israel, pointing to sanctions on the country.
This argument no longer holds water for ordinary Iranians who have seen by the admission of the government itself that billions of desperately needed Iranian dollars are spent on arming and feeding groups in Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen.
At the same time, most Iranians have given up any hope of modernization under the Rouhani government. According to the Iran Human Rights Organization, the presidency of the “moderate” Hassan Rouhani has led to an average monthly execution rate of 60 prisoners. This is compared to 35 under the “hardliner” former president Ahmadinejad.
Most Iranians, young and old, have seen the dollar’s value against the Iranian Rial increase by 133233% over the last four decades, shattering any chance of real wealth creation for their families or their future children.
Today the annual rate of inflation stands at nearly 200%.
Ideology Over People
The Islamic Republic’s rulers, both “reformists” and “hardliners”, have brought Iran to this point through their extremist ideologies which ignore the needs of their own people.
For example, bad management and excessive use of dams on Iran’s small rivers have caused unprecedented droughts, which are now destroying the soil of the country.
Israel is the leading researching figure on this topic, if Iran’s hardline leaders could for a moment put aside their ideological problems, and accept the right of Israel to exist, they could receive help and potentially solve this issue.
But as always, ideology trumps the good of the Iranian people.
Sanctions, Pain, and an Iranian Response
The new round of sanctions will hit the already hurting and extremely fragile Iranian economy even harder. But the Iranians have already begun responding, taking to the streets against their republic’s poor and corrupt governance, which has often been followed by austerity and blaming the West.
These sporadic protests though are not what we have typically seen in Iran, they are not made up of the middle class.
The middle class at this point has shrunk severely in Iran and could shrink even further.
This is a revolution of the lower class who cannot feed their family anymore, and the extremely oppressed women who have seen their rights stripped by a backwards state which still views a woman as property of her husband or father.
These individuals have seen their religion being used to oppress them for the sake of piety, while the supposed keepers of the religion act more corrupt and take part in carnal desires than any politician in the west.
The extremely radical chants against the supreme leader and the entirety of the Islamic Republic regime itself, the campaign against the mandatory hijab (where women would take off their hijabs), and the overwhelming support it received from people across the country, all point towards the conclusion that this is not just a revolt against inflation and high prices.
This is a proud nation tired of being humiliated by the incompetence and the cruelty of a corrupt-theocracy for over 40 years.
What Will The Islamic Republic Do?
The current protests are the second wave of country-wide demonstrations. The first round occurred six months ago and sent shockwaves through the regime due to their widespread nature.
The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, this week in an angered and distraught speech announced: “Nobody can do a DAMN THING [against the regime]”. Yet, many of Iran’s high-level authorities are liquidating the country’s properties and moving, along with their families out of the country.
This issue of funds fleeing the state have now become such an important issue, that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in move to gain popular sentiment, wrote a letter to Donald Trump asking him to release the names of all Iranian regime related individuals who are in the United States and the wealth they control.
Many of regime’s lobbyists and even political pundits warn the media that if this regime goes down, the country will fall into chaos.
That is not a truly fair assessment. Iran is not Syria, Iraq, or Libya.
Iraq and Syria fell into chaos mainly because of the Islamic Republic’s involvement.
As well those countries lacked a national identity since they were all created after the first world war. In comparison, Iran has a very strong national identity. It was not created by another country. It is ancient, and its ethnicities and religions have lived alongside each other for millennia.
Instead of a civil war, it is far more likely that in the coming months, due to added incentive of the sanctions which leaves the regime vulnerable, it much more likely that demonstrations will begin to occur closer and closer to each other.
Each wave will shake the regime more and more until they cannot control it anymore leading to the eventual failure of an over-extended regional power at war with itself.
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This article was co-written by Abdolreza Ahmadi
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