ANALYSIS: Will Israel and Hamas finally reach a long term truce?

Rival Palestinian Arab groups are the main problem with an Israel-Hamas truce, but far from the only one.

bY Yochanan Visser, INN

As Palestinian terror movements continued incendiary balloon attacks on southern Israel over the weekend, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened his security cabinet to discuss a proposal for a five to ten-year-long truce with Hamas in Gaza.

The proposed deal was brokered by Egypt and the United Nations and reportedly includes easing restrictions on imports from Israel, the full opening of the Rafah crossing on the Egypt Gaza border, reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority which would result in the PA taking over control of the coastal enclave, and elections to be held in Gaza within six months.

In a later phase, long-proposed humanitarian and infrastructure projects like the building of a port and airport would be executed with the help of the international community, according to a report by broadcaster Hadashot in Israel on Friday evening.

The last phase of the plan would entail negotiations about the return of captured Israeli citizens and the remains of IDF soldiers who fell during the 2014 summer war with Hamas in Gaza.

An unnamed Israeli official told Israel’s TV Channel 10 on Friday that Israel would not accept any agreement with Hamas that would not include the return of the Israelis in the first phase of the deal.

The official, in fact, reacted to pressure by the family of one of the slain IDF soldiers who, immediately after news broke about the ‘imminent’ agreement, issued a statement demanding the inclusion of the release of the held Israelis in any deal.

“Any deal that doesn’t include the return of Oron (Shaul), Hadar (Goldin), (Avera) Mengistu and the rest of our citizens won’t be worth the paper it’s written on, or whatever verbal promises were made for it,” the family of Oron Shaul wrote in an open letter to PM Netanyahu.

“For the deal to have practical and moral validity, its first stipulation must be the release of our sons,” the letter furthermore read adding “A deal without the return of our sons is a surrender that only serves as evidence of our country’s weakness.”

The Lebanese media outlet al-Akhbar was one of the Arab media who broke the news about the truce proposal on Friday and reported that Hamas must commit to end the so-called ‘Kite Jihad’ against Israel.

The leadership of Hamas, including arch terrorist Saleh al-Arouri, who has strong ties with Iran and lives in Lebanon, is now debating the proposal and has reportedly scheduled a vote in the so-called Shura council the de-facto government of Gaza.

Al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau, had never visited Gaza and received assurances from Egypt about his safety before he travelled to the Strip.

There are several problems with the truce proposal, which is reportedly backed by the United States.

First of all, Hamas is required to hand over security control over the Gaza Strip, something it refused to commit to in earlier negotiations about reconciliation between the Islamist terror organization and the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority.

It is therefore hard to see how it will different this time, because Hamas derives its raison d’etre from armed struggle against Israel.

Secondly, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas is reportedly against the deal and is not in a hurry to resume control over Gaza, because it would help Israel and give legitimacy to the upcoming new peace drive by the Trump Administration which includes rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip.

Abbas is still angry at the Trump Administration for recognizing Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and for moving the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Israel’s capital.

For this reason, Fatah on Saturday warned Hamas against striking a deal with the government in Jerusalem because it would supposedly harm “national unity.”

Fatah spokesman Osama Qawasmeh said the agreement would be considered “a free gift to Israel and another coup against the Palestinian people and their homeland,” a reference to the violent power grab by Hamas in 2007 when the Islamist terror group ended PA-rule over the Gaza Strip.

The Fatah spokesman added that Palestinian reconciliation should be Hamas’ top priority not a deal with Israel about humanitarian aid in exchange for calm in southern Israel.

Hamas reacted on Sunday and said it was “disgusted” by Qawasmeh’s statement and accused Fatah of instigating tensions in order to thwart the efforts to reach a truce between Israel and the organization.

Hamas’ spokesman Abu Zuhri called upon Fatah to “realize that it lost the (2006) election” in the territories under PA control, while he reminded Abbas of the fact he has no mandate to rule the Palestinian Arabs because “his term in office has expired.”

Another problem with the proposed deal will be Hamas’ original demand that Israel frees Palestinian terrorists who serve jail time in Israeli prisons in exchange for the release of captured Israeli citizens and the remains of IDF soldiers.

Hamas will probably demand the release of a significant number of Palestinian inmates under any agreement, something which is unacceptable to the current Israeli government.

It may be too early to say the truce deal will meet the fate of all earlier agreements between Hamas and Israel and the earlier efforts to bring about reconciliation between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

As things stand now, however, the rivaling Palestinian factions are on their way to prove former Kuwaiti Minister of Information Sami Abdullatif Al-Nesf right.

During a July 11 interview on Kuwaiti internet TV Al-Nesf said that “throughout history nobody has harmed the Palestinian cause more than Palestinian groups that compete in their extremism.”

Yochanan Visser is an independent journalist/analyst who worked for many years as Middle East correspondent for Western Journalism.com in Arizona and was a frequent publicist for the main Dutch paper De Volkskrant. He authored a book in the Dutch language about the cognitive war against Israel and now lives in Gush Etzion. He writes a twice weekly analysis of current issues for Arutz Sheva.

August 7, 2018 | 23 Comments »

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23 Comments / 23 Comments

  1. @ Edgar G.:

    Israeli troops have killed two Hamas commandos in an exchange of fire across the Gaza Strip barrier, as low-level hostilities continue despite suggestions of a ceasefire.

    Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops came under fire from snipers in the Gaza Strip Tuesday morning. A tank then fired back, targeting a Hamas observation post, the service said in a statement via Twitter.

    Noting there were no injuries to Israeli soldiers, the IDF said it is “prepared to target any aggression against Israel and holds Hamas responsible for everything happening in and emanating from the Gaza Strip.”

    A video released by the IDF appears to show a three-man Hamas sniper team on an observation tower. Lying prone, the grainy footage seems to show at least two of the men firing toward the border fence. The video then shows a shell flying toward an observation post, striking the top and exploding.

    Haaretz reported that both of those killed were 23-year-old members of the al-Nukhba unit, an elite component of the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades—the Hamas military wing. The dead were named as Abd al-Hafez al-Silawi and Ahmad Murjan.

    The newspaper said the Israeli shell hit Hamas’s Askelan military base during a graduation ceremony of fighters, injuring another six people. Senior Hamas officials were reportedly in attendance. https://www.newsweek.com/israel-kills-hamas-snipers-releases-footage-gaza-clash-1060790

  2. @ Edgar G.:
    Actually I have heard various stories about what with great inconsistencies. They are very different versions including Hamas shooting at Israeli soldiers and some do not.

    I do not buy your version of the causation as escalation in a vacuum. You may not have read that the prior to the alleged incident Hamas had vacated all their normal spotter and sniping positions. The belief being that they were ready to attack and did not want to be sitting in open positions. They had one Tower manned and from a video I saw this is what was hit after they had opened fire on Israeli troops. I did not see the fire on Israeli troops but did see the Hamas position get splattered.

    You obviously may believe whatever you want, your right! I do not agree with your theory. I have spent too much time on this with you already. Edgar you appear very sensitive and get offended when one disagrees with you. Chill out!

  3. @ Bear Klein:

    Yes I can correct you, you are wrong, I did serve in the military when very young, and later in Israel I did armed security work in Israel. I was rated as a possible sharpshooter. I’d forgotten about it. But that’s beside the point. I’m not complaining that Arab terrorists were killed. I’m all FOR that, as WELL YOU KNOW. The original ones who were killed were merely people enjoying a simcha 2 kilometres away, peacefully and happily., They fired off a couple of rifles into the air as they always do.

    If the IDF can admit to their having made a mistake, then you shouldn’t be trying to justify what they say was a mistake. I am merely arguing a “point of FACT” here, whilst you are disputing about a War.

    If you are a person with knee-jerk reactions to noise which might even just be a clap of thunder , as an excuse to shoot off cannonin all directions and kill unaware people, I’m glad that you are now not in that position. And we are not discussing the right-or-wrong of killing terrorists, so don’r put twisted words into my mouth. You WELL know my position about terrorists, and Arabs in general. posted a HUNDRED times on this site.

    I can speak for myself, It”s just unfortunate that you seem somehow, to dispute positive points I make , which is quite fine with me, but DON’T endow me with thoughts and beliefs that I DO NOT HAVE , and which you know I don’t. All the major officials and news outlets keep saying that Hamas wants PEACE, and that it’s very near. This SUDDEN flare-up took everybody by surprise as you WELL know, and was caused by an unwitting IDF error…..WHICH THEY ADMIT.

    So what more is there to say about it. There’s no need to winkle out a single word or two in my post and debate learnedly on it, or build a house of cards around it…. Look what’s happened from a simple error, which has suddenly escalated to the verge of a major confronatation………. Enough…..!

  4. @ Bear Klein:

    Yes I can correct you, you are wrong, I did serve in the military when very young, and later in Israel I did armed security work in Israel. I was rated as a possible sharpshooter. I’d forgotten about it. But that’s beside the point. I’m not complaining that Arab terrorists were killed. I’m all FOR that, as WELL YOU KNOW. The original ones who were killed were merely people enjoying a simcha 2 kilometres away, peacefully and happily., They fired off a couple of rifles into the air as they always do.

    If the IDF can admit to their having made a mistake, then you shouldn’t be trying to justify what they say was a mistake. I am merely arguing a “point of FACT” here, whilst you are disputing about a War.

    If you are a person with knee-jerk reactions to noise which might even just be a clap of thunder , as an excuse to shoot off cannonin all directions and kill unaware people, I’m glad that you are now not in that position. And we are not discussing the right-or-wrong of killing terrorists, so don’r put twisted words into my mouth. You WELL know my position about terrorists, and Arabs in general. posted a HUNDRED times on this site.

    I can speak for myself, It”s just unfortunate that you seem somehow, to dispute positive points I make , which is quite fine with me, but DON’T endow me with thoughts and beliefs that I DO NOT HAVE , and which you know I don’t. All the major officials and news outlets keep saying that Hamas wants PEACE, and that it’s very near. This SUDDEN flare-up took everybody by surprise as you WELL know, and wa s caused by an unwitting IDF error…..WHICH THEY ADMIT.

    So what more is there to say about it. There’s no need to winkle out a single word or two in my post and debate learnedly on it, or build a house of cards around it…. Look what’s happened from a simple error, which has suddenly escalated to the verge of a major confronatation………. Enough…..!

  5. @ Edgar G.
    First, when one fires weapons in a combat zone one should be expect to get shot at. I was trained to fire to kill when in a dangerous situation. I was NOT taught to let us survey the situation maybe they are not shooting at us so I will refrain from firing.

    So, if someone was apologizing for killing Hamas terrorists they are an idiot. I am very skeptical about this. I think it is good that a couple of terrorists have been acknowledged as dead. It appears many more have been wounded or killed as the IDF has hit some of the rocket firing squads and others. Apparently Hamas wants only civilian deaths reported for better press coverage.

    Correct me if I am wrong please Edgar, you never served in any police or military unit or did security work?

    The article I referenced above in my view explains well what has started the fighting. I do not think a single isolated incident whether accurately reported or not explains what is going.

    Hamas since Israel has not smashed them for the months long terror incidents has started feeling embolden and the IDFs deterrence has waned. This lead Hamas to falsely believe they were going to make demands Israel would agree to. The outlandish demands were rejected and this and everything else has to lead to a serious outbreak of fighting.

  6. @ Bear Klein:

    You pay no heed to the IDF admission that they made the mistake which started the whole flare-up. That they were WRONG in assuming that distant rifle fire was directed at them, they were wrong to respond with tank ,missiles and lead the escalation to it’s present point…..

    Why do you slide past this rare admission…..?

  7. To the brink of war: How Hamas and Israel got here

    (My comments remember Iran is paying Hamas to attack Israel partly as payback for Israel attacking it in Syria)

    Twelve hours before rocket sirens began sounding in southern Israel on Wednesday evening, Hamas was expressing optimism about an agreement with Israel. Goods would flow through the Kerem Shalom crossings, there would be a five year ceasefire and Hamas would return bodies and captives as well as stop the kite intifada of burning Israel’s fields. The UN and Egypt were also optimistic that the ceasefire would happen. It was not to be; 150 rockets were fired over night.

    In retrospect, the signs were already there. Hamas had evacuated several of its observation structures along the border, leading to concerns. This came in the wake of sniper fire over the last month targeting Israeli troops. The larger picture is that Israel and Hamas have been at a low-level war since March 30th, when Hamas launched the Great Return March.

    Let’s go back and take a look at how the tensions have developed and how we got to August 8th. It is important to understand not only the military march toward greater escalation, but also the regional political context. continue ………https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/To-the-brink-to-war-How-Hamas-and-Israel-got-here-564447

  8. Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority are for once of one mind: They totally reject the exorbitant demands Hamas negotiators slapped down in Cairo for a long-term truce.
    On Wednesday, Aug. 8, Hamas negotiators put a list of unreal demands before truce broker Egyptian General Intelligence Director Gen. Kemal Abbas in Cairo. The response from Jerusalem was that they are “totally unacceptable” and Israel did not intend to even start considering them. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas signaled his rejection from Qatar.
    And so, while Hamas called for a “long-term truce” its tactics produced the opposite effect and brought the indirect negotiations to a dead end.

    continue ….. https://www.debka.com/hamas-extortionate-demands-derail-gaza-truce-talks-in-cairo/

  9. @ Edgar G.:

    Another CORRECTION…. I just read the report from the IDF that they’d made a mistake that began the whole “shooting match”… They heard rifle fire, and mistakenly believed that Hamas was shooting at them and the responded with a tank bombardment. Hamas replied to that , and so on up to the present major raids.

    After investigation, they discovered that the rifles were fired at a Gaza celebration 2 Kilometres away.

  10. @ Edgar G.:

    CORRECTION- I just read that the IDF attacked over 140 sites, and 20 military compounds and arms factories. Still only the 3 dead Gazans in Bear’s report. There should have been at least over 1,000.

    This probably will go down as “The Bloodless Attack”. And Hamas will claim victory because they were all safe and sound , in some tunnel at theother nd of the Strip.

  11. @ Bear Klein:

    That in itself should tell you something. They hit 100 targets as I read on Arutz 7 including 10 major military compounds, in response for Hamas shooting off over 150 missiles and killed ….the GRAND TOTAL of 3 Gazans…. either civilian or otherwise I don’r know, but that’s from your post.

    In a day or two there should be a quiet creeping over the area as already arranged. Of course, it may not happen as I think, but I believe it will. Too many people and countries who can pressure Hamas are invested in the effort. It doesn’t matter either way, the cursed Arabs are there, and will have to eventually be winkled out like shellfish, with a pin, in the form of intensive, determined military action.

  12. An Israeli Air Force fighter pilot has reportedly eliminated a senior Hamas rocket engineer, according to a report broadcast by Channel 13 television news.

    The targeted assassination allegedly took placed during one of Israel’s retaliatory attacks in Gaza early Thursday morning.

    Gaza terrorists launched more than 100 rockets and mortar shells at southern Israel in the space of seven hours from Wednesday night into Thursday.

    Nearly a dozen Israelis were wounded, and many more were traumatized. Some of the rockets landed directly on homes and vehicles in Jewish communities in the Gaza Belt region, causing a great deal of damage as well. http://www.jewishpress.com/news/eye-on-palestine/hamas/report-idf-eliminates-senior-hamas-rocket-expert/2018/08/09/

    The IDF hit over 100 targets in Gaza and was reported to have killed three Gazans.

  13. @ Edgar G.:
    I think last count was they shot 70 rockets. A ground incursion by the IDF at this point is possible even with this government.

    Israel had rejected the Hamas demands. This is the Hamas response. They want Israel to surrender to their demands.

  14. @ Bear Klein:

    It’s also possible this this is in their last burst or two of malevolence and defiance before the Hudna comes into effect…a sort of last hurrah. Just the sort of thing that primitive, cunning barbarians would think to do, knowing that all that would happen would be the bombing of a few empty buildings to show that Israel is “protecting” it’s people…..

    And then the “quiet” which I have predicted, –well not exactly predicted as I’m no fortune teller–, but suggested, will play out it’s destined role and eventually expire from the Arab “itch”…the desire to murder defenceless Jews..

  15. WAR MORE LIKELY NOW THAN CEASEFIRE

    IDF: 12 terrorist targets hit in Gaza

    The IDF announced 12 terrorist targets were hit as a result of Wednesday night’s rocket fire from Gaza.

    The IAF struck targets that included a factory used for producing materials used for building tunnels, a tunnel intended for maritime terrorism as well as other strategic Hamas targets on their military sites which held a variety of weapons, rockets as well as a military compound that serves as a central logistic warehouse were also hit by IAF jets.

    The IDF said that the attack was carried out in retaliation to the rockets launched into israel earlier today.

    https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Live-updates-Flareup-in-the-south-564419

  16. Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan said Wednesday he believes a broad, long-term ceasefire agreement with Hamas in Gaza will not be reached, but allowed that “there may be secret channels that even the ministers aren’t aware of yet, and when a proposal arrives, we’ll discuss it.”

    In an interview with Ynet, Erdan stressed that any agreement in Gaza “must include complete quiet,” adding, “We will obviously not compromise on the continuation of incendiary balloons or kites, and of course (such an agreement) would have to include an end to the terror marches on Fridays.”

    “The fact that at the time we’re also examining the possibility of reaching a peaceful resolution and quiet that would help the security of Gaza border residents—is a legitimate thing. It doesn’t mean we’ll agree to the long-term rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip without receiving a solution to the issue of our soldiers and citizens (being held by Hamas) and to preventing Hamas from gaining in strength,” Erdan stressed.

    https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5324865,00.html

  17. If Bibi & Co. were to make a deal with Hamas that gives them a port and airport they should be drummed out on their ears and spat on. I can not believe or would not like to believe they would be this stupid and weak. This is what I believe will NOT happen. A meaningless ceasefire until someone starts shooting that certainly is possible but a comprehensive deal giving the terrorist body Hamas all they want free flow of goods from Israel and the Sinai plus the ports they would be out of their friggin minds!

  18. @ Bear Klein:

    Contrary to you, I DO believe that they will reach a deal, which Hamas, at the beginning will assiduously and ostentatiously keep, publicly punishing errant groups who will all the more act on their own and attack Israel (with Hamas; surreptitious encouragement of course)….and then eventually when Hamas has had enough “peace” and has the urge stirring again, it will all break down. All this time they will be busy inventing or concocting something new to damage Israel people or/and property. This will cause more Jew hate-money to pour into the enclave.

    They are showing the world who and what they are….invincible…. !!

    As for the rest, I agree 100% with you Bear, but it’s always been “a given” without saying it…

  19. I highly doubt there will be a deal with Hamas. No deal with Hamas is worth anything. Destroying Hamas is the only engagement with Hamas that has any merit!