The Turkish military has discovered it’s much easier to invade Syria than to govern it.
Turkey has unintentionally made itself the de facto ruler in northwest Syria, however the responsibility seems more of a quagmire than the Turkish government originally expected, Foreign Policy said on Friday.
Turkey seized the northwestern Syrian town of Afrin with the backing of Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters in March from the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (PYD) and its armed unit Kurdish Self-Defense Forces (YPG). Turkey considers the PYD and YPG as the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that has been fighting for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey for more than 30 years.
According to Foreign Policy, Turkish government is trying to restore order in the city with numerous major Turkish charities helping distribute aid, as well as by establishing democratic governance, and training local security forces. However, hostilities between the enclave’s Kurds and Arabs, as well as between those who came to Afrin to settle from other parts of Syria and those who are natives have been lingering, while Turkey hopes to draw back 3 million Syrian refugees settled in the country to Afrin.
According to Aaron Stein, a Turkey and Syria specialist at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, when Turkey took control of Afrin, it basically signed up to govern the place.“They are now on the hook for everything from delivering water, picking up trash, administering health and education. Security is not very good. There are clearly the indications of an insurgency. For now, it’s manageable. But talk to me in five years,” Stein said.
“The priority in Afrin is still security, security, security,” a senior Turkish official told Foreign Policy. Turkey is training local security forces, many drawn from FSA units, as it plans soon to pull out of Afrin and leave the region to be run by local allies. According to Foreign Policy, though those trained local forces may be capable of policing the streets and holding their own against Kurdish rebels, they are likely to crumble in case of an assault by the Assad regime’s forces, which may happen in case the fragile alliance between Turkey and Russia breaks down.
Local violence seems to be accelerating due to YPG attacks to Turkish targets and Turkish forces’ responses to those attacks. But locals told Foreign Policy that some of the security problems arise because of the Arab and Turkmen members of the FSA units, who use terrible methods to humiliate the Kurdish population in town suspected of being affiliated to the PKK.
A Kurdish resident told Foreign Policy that more than 200 people have been detained by the FSA and the relatives of the detainees are forced to pay ransoms of up to $20,000 to get loved ones released. The high operating costs of keeping fighters on side is the reason behind the FSA’s practices to raise money from the locals, according to Stein.
The clash between the conservative values of rebel groups and the newcomers and the region’s leftist-minded Kurds also increase the tension in town, Foreign Policy noted. But those who left Afrin before the YPG took over the city welcome Turkey’s presence in the region and tend to hold the FSA responsible of the problems, rather than the Turkish forces.
Aaron Stein thinks Turkey will not be able to fully pull out from the city as this will deteriorate the security.“Security deteriorates, and people move back across the border. You’ve signed yourself up for a long-term occupation,” Stein said.
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