DEBKAfile’s military sources report that, unless Israel takes preventive action in time, this Syrian-Iranian push will link up with other forces to encircle the Quneitra region opposite the Israeli Golan from the east, south and North. Yet no action has been taken, although the new Syrian military advance threatens to deposit Hizballah and pro-Iranian militias – not just opposite the Golan but along the Israeli-Syrian border east of the Sea of Galilee and Hamat Gader.
The Syrian army and its allies are therefore moving ever closer to the Israeli border after their initial thrust, which was first revealed by DEBKAfile on July 9. Bashar Assad has brought his Quneitra operation forward for the purpose of thwarting any accommodations President Vladimir Putin may reach with Binyamin Netanyahu when they talk in Moscow on Wednesday, July 11.
DEBKAfile reported on Monday:
The Syrian army began attacking rebel positions around Quneitra opposite Israel’s Golan border on Monday, July 9, DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal. For some hours, Syrian forces have been pounding rebel positions at Nabi Sakhar east of Quneitra with heavy tank and artillery fire as well as Golan 1000 rocket launchers. For now, the rebels hold superior fire power, but are short of manpower for holding the wider region.
It is not clear whether the Syrian forces reached the Quneitra region from Daraa where fighting continues, or from the north. In communiques in the last few hours, the Syrian high command in Damascus claimed the rebels are supported by the IDF. According to the official Syrian news agency SANA, “the jihadist rebels ae currently under the protection of the Israeli Defense Forces” – although no details are offered. There is no official word from Israel.
DEBKAfile’s military sources say that the launching of the Syrian Quneitra offensive should not have come as a surprise to the Netanyahu government or the IDF since there were plenty of signs it was on the way. In Daraa, the first part of Syria’s drive to seize control of the southwest is jumping back and forth, because neither the Assad regime nor the Syrian army accept the ceasefire deal which the Russians negotiated with local rebel leaders. On Sunday, therefore, the Syrian air force renewed its strikes on rebel positions in Daraa and Syrian, Hizballah and pro-Iranian Shiite militias stand ready to go into Daraa City. This would be in repudiation of the Russian-rebel deal which restricted entry to Syrian civilian administrators.
The rulers of Damascus suspect the Russians are aiming to broker the same ceasefire deal with the rebels of Queiitra. This would leave the anti-Assad fighters in place and in control of their villages, in return for surrendering their heavy and medium arms.
The Syrian allegation of an Israeli air attack on the big Syrian T-4 air base Sunday night clearly pointed to its next target: the Syrian Golan town of Quneitra opposite IDF lines. The giveaway came from the content of the Syrian communique, which was framed to implicate all of Assad’s enemies in the purported attack. The Israeli jets allegedly flew in from Jordan over the US outpost at Al Tanf.
By setting up this ploy four days before President Vladimir Putin receives Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Moscow on Wednesday, Bashar Assad was giving Moscow due warning that he would play the Quneitra offensive by his own rule book not the Russians.’ It remains to be seen how the Syrian army’s Quneitra operation, launched on Monday, plays out – whether it is restricted to small skirmishes or spreads more widely.
Israel will act according to its needs. The USA will back it up.
4:30 PM Israel-Syria Israeli military confirms Quneitra attack, saying it came as retaliation to Syrian surveillance drone
@ adamdalgliesh:
If Trump doesn’t support Israel’s deterrent actions along the Golan Border, besides causing him trouble with Congress, it will place in doubt his commitment to his strongest Middle East Ally, repeatedly averred to be “bound at the hip” forever and a day, and allow distrust to emerge about the reliance on American support that Trump has guaranteed to others.
I suggest that Netanyahu will tell Putin, that “with all due respects to you Vladimir, and our personal good relationship, Israel has now been put in a situation against her will, where we HAVE to decisively act against all kinds of dangerous forces on our border areas. We have said so repeatedly, and dare not allow such to occur. So I ask you to honour your guarantee that you would not allow Iran or offshoots to come within the no-go area we set up for our security.”….Something like this. And they’ll zum-zum over it a little, Putin highly pleased that such a close American ally has to ask him for help, although it’s a sort of “or else” kind, where if Russia doesn’t comply, Israel will definitely use massive force to destroy Russia’ close allies, all the while professing friendship towards Russia itself.
If Israel acts thus, it could lead to revival of the anti-Assad forces, and his eventual overthrow, or at least a much prolonged war, delaying or permanently preventing the unification of former Syria.
Deeply troubling report. I don’t know what Israel can or should do about it. Maybe occupy the Qunaitra region. Maybe that is why he is going to Moscow to confer with Putin yet again, in order to obtain his “permission” to do this. Trump’s policy of seeking an accommodation with the Russians means Netanyahu can’t count on American support for tough Israeli actions in Syria.