The Islamic Republic’s decades-long mismanagement of water resources has led to a shortage of fresh water, a problem compounded by drought and rising temperatures due to climate change. The shortage is acutely felt across Iran and has fueled recent protests against the government.
While Iran has managed to curb the rapid population growth of the 1980s – a success which may not last as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has set his eyes on increasing the population to 150 million – the Iranian government’s policies have systematically led to overuse of water. Contributing factors include corruption, lack of vision, unimpeded dam construction by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, inadequate water-distribution infrastructure, inefficient agriculture, inter-basin water transfer projects, and water quality degradation.
For example, salt levels in the Karoun River – Iran’s largest – rose sharply after the IRGC built the Gotvand dam on land close to salt beds, despite warnings of the probable impact. The elevated salinity has damaged farmlands in Khuzestan, the oil-rich province which has also been an agricultural hub for hundreds of years. While there is growing recognition in the Iranian regime about the seriousness of the problem, it has been unable to reverse the trend.
The consequences of mismanagement are already visible across the country. Lake Urmia and several major rivers, including Isfahan’s iconic Zayanderud, have virtually dried up. Many living in the countryside have been forced to move to shanty towns in urban areas, and Iranian government officials have essentially admitted that a quarter of the population lives in those areas. These are recipes for social and political unrest. Many Iranians are worried about water shortages, and protests in badly-hit areas have been increasing in the past decade. Indeed, the most depressed areas witnessed the most intense unrest during the peak of the 2017-2018 mass protests.
Former agricultural minister Isa Kalantari has warned that within 22 years, approximately 50 million people, or 70 percent of the population, would “have no choice but to leave the country.” The minister might have exaggerated the future effect of the water crisis. However, there is no doubt that if the problem stays unresolved, it could have serious consequences for global security, possibly triggering further conflict and instability in the region and potentially causing an unprecedented influx of Iranian refugees into neighboring countries.
The U.S. should designate the network of corrupt entities and persons, including the IRGC-owned companies, which knowingly made decisions that exacerbated the water crisis. The U.S. could consider granting exemption licenses to American desalination companies to sell technologies and equipment to Iran despite sanctions, with any assistance conditional on Tehran’s commitment to full transparency, confirmable by independent international sources. VOA Persian and Radio Farda should be encouraged to devote more resources to covering the water crisis. The water crisis proves once again that the main victims of Tehran’s policies are the Iranian people.
Amir Toumaj is a research analyst at the Foundation for Foundation of Democracies where Saeed Ghasseminejad is a research fellow. Ghasseminejad is a former civil engineer with a Diplôme d’Ingénieur in sustainable construction and urban planning. Follow them on Twitter @AmirToumaj and @SGhasseminejad.
No relief. We should be doing everything in our power to make their lives harder unless and until they overthrow the regime. At a minimum, under no circumstances should we lift a finger to save them from themselves. Let them destroy each other while we lock the gates and watch from safety. That would be ideal. And that goes for so-called Muslim refugees, as well.
Some exceptions can be made for those who work for us, as during the cold war.
Nonsense.
The U.S. should NOT grant exemption licenses to American desalination companies to sell technologies and equipment to Iran.
If the most badly-hit areas witnessed the most intense unrest during the peak of the 2017-2018 mass protests as stated above, and if Iranians worry about water shortages, then this is a welcome phenomenon.
I would hope that these indeed are recipes for social and political unrest. Hopefully sectarian and regional fault lines will cause the breakup of Iran.
This man has got it all wrong. What is bad for the believer is good for the infidel.
This is a completely incomplete article, telling us that the situation is “beginning” to be noticed, when it tales years to turn thriving waterways and rivers into dry beds with occasional pools. So it was noticed a long time ago…had to have been.
And what does the writer mean when he says that US water technology companies could be given permission to sell too Iran provided that there is complete transparency….What transparency…covering what….. WATER or NUCLEAR weaponry……
My own opinion is to let well enough alone, the people will eventually not be denied. To give your bitter enemy an escape route is the height of madness.
Of course, if the softies what to fix Iran’s water problem so that they can reach 150 million terrorist enemies, (well indoctrinated by that point)… who’s arguing……It’s only a single world committing suicide, and there are many livable worlds-according to our astronomers. Maybe we’ll be able to get to them by then, and leave this earth for Iran to spread over, and fight it out with Turkey for a universal Caliphite.