Benefits of cancelling the $38 Billion deal

By Ted Belman

Lord knows, Trump has many enemies sworn to bring his downfall. He needs all the help he can muster.

Why not cut a deal with the master of the deal, whereby Israel foregoes the aid in exchange for the approval of our right to massively build in Judea and Samaria.

In Israel’s Trump Card, Gil Weinreich writes,

“What Israel needs most of all today is to take a page from your playbook and increase domestic building – it’s hard for average Israeli wage earners to afford housing, something that can be greatly relieved through development of inland towns and cities in Judea and Samaria. Externally, we need reliable allies based on shared interests. Together, let us turn a new page in our relationship based on our shared values and shared interests rather than shared resources, though we will never forget that America – alone among the nations of the world — was there for us when we most needed her.”

Why is this sudden policy change important? The President-elect has made many promises that will be difficult to achieve, as they depend on the cooperation of those who oppose these policies. For example, no Mexican leader would remain politically viable were he to comply with American demands to pay for a wall on their common border. Israel, by “giving up” America’s largesse, grants the White House a valuable political victory and purchases for itself room to maneuver in the conduct of its own internal affairs. What’s more, turning down an aid package that requires 100% of the funds be used for purchase of U.S. armaments would also strengthen Israel’s domestic arms industry and boost employment.

But more importantly, the aid package is a net loser for Israel. The late economist Milton Friedman famously quipped, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” American presidents of both parties have increasingly watered down their pro-Israel stances to one of neutrality between Israel and its enemies, or worse.

By announcing such a deal, Pres Trump would surprise everyone by voiding the deal rather than increasing it as expected. This will go down well in the US and end the criticism of Israel as the largest recipient of US aid. After all Trump has already said that he supports building in Judea and Samaria.

Israel, on the other hand would be taking a giant step forward to achieving real independence. Massively building in J&S would dramatically lower the cost of housing in Israel and greatly stimulate employment in both Israel and J&S. Israel would also be able to build its defense industry and exports.

This would also involve the end of Oslo and the peace process. It would be the first step in finding a solution to the conflict not based on the two state solution.

Finally Trump and Putin will be ushering in a new day in their relations and will no doubt cooperate in solving the Syrian mess as well. Israel would become an important partner in that new alliance.

Think about it.

November 15, 2016 | 19 Comments »

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19 Comments / 19 Comments

  1. A “simple” way to solve the crucial Syrian problem. Both Shias and Sunnis are very weak; the world needs to take advantage of this situation. A unique opportunity to end 13 centuries of ME nuisances.
    Assure Assad family survival in a country that would follow the example of Great Britain. A constitutional monarchy. Time to experiment with the elements of democracy. Assad wants to represent all his constituency, at least that is what he keeps telling everybody. This would be combined with a peace treaty with Israel. The Pal will be given an Hobson’ s choice.
    Create a Kurdish country. There is very little that the ME fanatics can do. If Assad refuses he would soon or later be eliminate.
    This has one prerequisite: a USA that is strong economically and militarily!
    Iran will be isolated and the Sunnis would have no more reasons to fear Iran and will have a major obligation towards the US! A REAL peace treaty with Israel.

  2. I wonder what excuses BB will use to keep obstructing Jewish settlement outside the euro designated ghetto boundaries of the major blocks when Trump takes office? Even now BB is whipping up a hysteria around his manufactured bogeyman of Obama not vetoing a UN resolution. How else can BB freeze settlement, help euros illegally build muslim homes in YS, keep avoiding to start the approved building in E1, keep building pal cities in area C? Without a bogey man to wave to his deluded electorate, he would have no narrative for all his leftist anti zionist anti settlement agenda.
    He needs the bogeyman as his cover… I wonder if he will go to trump and ask trump to continue the obama bogeyman character… like when he goes to the US congress and asks them covertly NOT to stop the funding of the PA or like when puts on his show of stopping handing over the pal custom duties and a few weeks later conjures up a phony agreement to release them.
    The con man keeps repeating his con until the sucker wakes up.

  3. why cancel the aid when what is not wanted is the attached strings?
    How about a deal with the deal maker?
    Israel gets some of the attached strings lifted so they can manufacture more at home and reduces the aid so Donald can show and claim that his renegotiation of deals works better for everyone. its usually beneficial to make someone who might be around the next 8 years look good to his electorate. The anti trumpers and anti zionists are happy for a reduction, the US public sees that the donald MO is reducing costs while keeping alliances intact…etc etc etc Get what you want while making him look good.

  4. EMAIL RECEIVED.

    Heh Ted,
    I don’t see any benefit to Trump if Israel refused the military deal, but I agree that it might be good in the long run for us.
    Re: housing. If the cost of new housing in Israel is greatly reduced, for whatever reason, it will also reduce the cost of “used” houses. Since the number of new houses purchased is just a small percentage of the total number of housing units, a majority of homeowners would be very unhappy to see their biggest investment(s) devalued. Therefore, I think that new housing will never be allowed to depreciate dramatically.

  5. Email received.

    Well done Ted, indeed!

    May I suggest another tiny nugget?
    Trashing this bad deal would send a very important double message.
    For 70 years US administrations have attempted to broker a ME deal based upon maximising pressure against Israel.
    Nine times, we have traded “Land for Peace” only to give land and never get anything of any lasting value.
    (The deals with Egypt and Jordon have still not been consummated into anything resembling peace because their populations are still bombarded constantly with antisemitism from the government-sponsored media.)

    It is about time the US stopped and began to actually think.
    If one model has not worked, has not succeeded for 70 years, has not the time ripened to rethink and look for a new directions?

    Trump has the opportunity to do something utterly unique – to actually succeed in making a difference.

    But this can only happen if he “makes a difference.”
    Beginning with full recognition of our Capitol city, and continuing with full recognition of sovereignty over the Land of Israel, as per actual international law and San Remo.

    You are correct that abrogating this deal would be an excellent method to bring an entire new paradigm into focus.

  6. By naming the subject Israel some people hide the fact that the want to be dependant is personal. The system is rotten to the core as proven by the skunks Ariel and Kara as well as most of the echelons, including Netanyahu, it is personal. Nothing to do with … ISRAEL…
    Netanyahu cannot possibly let go of the US “support”.
    Being dependent promotes his inner need to be “pressured”.
    He and his associates, including TL Lieberman beg for that aid and attached “pressure” to justify their groteske claim that they have to destroy Jewish homes, villages and abandon our most important Holly sites to keep the US happy.
    Lip biting speechster and his yoyo Lieberman desperately want that US “aid”.
    That’s all folks.

  7. Former Israeli general: US military aid harms Israel

    Maj. Gen. Gershon Hacohen says Israel should wean itself off US military aid, as government seeks to sign new Memorandum of Understanding.

    He cited the story of the dove sent out by Noah after the Flood, who returned with a bitter olive leaf which signified that dry land had reemerged from the floodwaters.

    “According to Rashi, who was one of the most important pillars of Jewish thought, this story teaches us that liberty has a price; that it’s better to have a bitter leaf taken directly from the hand of God than to be given something sweet as honey by mortal men,” Hacohen opined.

    “The lesson here is that the bitter taste of things we accomplish on our own is preferable to the sweet privileges than can imprison us.”

  8. @ bernard ross:

    Russia will reverse engineer including software in short order….Ariel is a fool bordering on treason. He should be fired over this along with all others who aided and abetted., Russians must think us a complete fools and they will be correct…..

  9. @ Bear Klein:
    They’ve already begun the weaning process:

    http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/betrayed-by-obama-in-2014-idf-switching-to-rafael-missiles-in-case-of-hellfire-embargo/2016/11/11/

    And some of the weapons Israel is required to buy are junk:

    http://carolineglick.com/time-to-walk-away-from-us-aid/

    Now, here you do have a real economic conflict of interest between the U.S. and Israel. The aid helps the U.S. economy and hurts both the security and economic interests of Israel.

    But not in a big way.

    This is why Jewish-American politicians like Kissinger or Schumer are often so dangerous to our people. They feel under pressure to prove that their first loyalty is to the U.S. so they will bend over backwards to screw Israel when push comes to shove, whereas a “righteous gentile” might just opt to do the right thing.

    The main problem for Israel is that allows foreign agencies to push Israel around. There is no free lunch. If you get aid, you have to answer to the aid giver. Israel has no need to play the role of supplicant, begging with hand out.

    Standard & Poors just gave Israel an A+ financial rating. Does the U.S. or Europe get such ratings?

  10. I believe Israel should ween itself off of the aid. Cold Turkey would have severe negatitive consquences on defense and the Israeli defense industries.

    I am hopeful that no horse trading is needed to get the Trump Administration to back whatever the Knesset is willing do about Israels’ status in Judea/Samaria and Jerusalem.

    Certainly if what his advisors on Israel have published turns out to be accurate.

  11. Yes, because their whole aerial strategy is built around the F-35 and other American built planes and hardware. But I can see that although these planes and etc, will be the backbone of the IAF for the next 20 years, in the meantime, Israel Military Industries would be working on and developing a wholly Israel manufactured combat plane, which they have long wanted to do but were interdicted by the US.

    The whole Israeli Military Industrial Complex would be invigorated and would really develop like a shooting star. They wouldn’t need permission to act in competition to the US, to sell to other countries. And much, much more.

    It will take many years to get it all organised and up to par, but I believe that this is what will happen. Anything they want from the US they can buy, and I’m sure there will be treaties made to that effect, but they won’t be forced to deal in only one marketplace as before.

    Several countries are still using the Kfir today. Because the engine was a US design,although modified by Israel, US permission had to be given before it could be sold…..

    Just imagine what would the Kfir have evolved into by now, if it had been exclusively worked on by Israel….and the Lavi….kyboshed by the USA.

    Just my opinion.

  12. Just a couple of things..Glad to see Israpundit back on track all the way. That was a horrendous attack. Mazaltov to |Ted and his technician.

    The foregoing of the $38 billion may not be a completely unalloyed benefit to either Israel or the US. It would deprive the American economy of $38 billion dollars worth of Jobs, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost, indeed, whole factories out of work. It would throw a heavy burden on Israeli Military Industries to emulate and indeed duplicate the particular military items that only the US makes. It would require massive retooling and research for Israel to replace everything. So it could take years before it would be ready for the changeover.

    Of course I know that Israel has the brains and resource to do it…I was just thinking that it would have to be a more or less seamless changeover…..which Israel would likely already have thought of and arranged for.

    In other words everything I’ve just written above, apart from the first sentence, was a waste of time………..but…in this free world, I have the right to indulge in free speech…