Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Menu There is no diplomatic solutionIsrael should declare three nos;
no to nuclear Iran, no to two-state solution, no to bi-national state
no to nuclear Iran, no to two-state solution, no to bi-national state
Trump did three major rallies today and three yesterday. He is drawing thousands
Repillary doesn’t campaign , she is half dead. She lets the Lugenpresse do all the work. Reptillary has no ground support, she can’t draw crowds.
..
H3llary promises amnesty for 18 -40 million illegals in the first 100 days. She will stack the supreme court. That is the end of America and two party system. And as for Islam – everybody knows the rest, the FBI already reports to the Muslim Brotherhood who reports to Hamas. The Apocalypse will start 1 – 2 years after Hellary opens the gates to h3ll when she takes office.
The negative Trump polls are legenpresse deceits. They are trying to discourage Trump voters from voting. Many “polls” deliberately oversampling Dem voters.
..
Trump voters are not staying home, the hatred for the corrupt lying traitorous Hillary is palpable in America. If the Dems think Hillary has won, good for them, they can stay home and watch TV and get get drunk – no need to go out and vote.
Reptillary is dying the death of a thousadn Wikileaks cuts.
Today the FBI reopened her email case based on emails from her server found on Weiner and Huma’s phones and laptops when they were investigating the sex charges.
These people are from h3ll and if they gain power they will turn America into a H3ll-hole and desert Israel. They need to lose and be burned. I can’t imagine the filth and corruption that will be found once Trump takes the White House. The wicked traitors will all have to run to Qatar.
yamit82 Said:
true, did you see how BB just secretly gave away more land in C… he gave that land in return for the Unesco vote… its called land for war and abuse, his new paradigm.
@ yamit82:
I think hannity and gingrich dont get something… they spent a lot of time beleiveing that the obamacare failure will drive folks to trump… I think the opposite. those in obamacare cant get medicaid and cant afford market insurance. Obamacare was created as a hybrid which could not work. I think that those affected voters will believe that only gov can fix a massive problem… not trump with his “health savings accounts”…. health savings accounts are code for not having a real solution, wanting to keep it private, solving a medical problem with a financial smoke and mirrors. If the private sector had a solution they would have come up with it before obamacare was voted in. The voters stuck with the problem will vote for a full gov solution not trump. He should have stayed away from obamacare.
@ yamit82:
Yamit you said Trump was going to win in landslide based on your scientific gut.
So how many electoral seats will he get? What percentage of the vote does the gut say?
Bye the way I hope your gut is correct.
Maybe your greps (Belch)came up trummmmmmppppppppp
Yes in the scientific (none gut and none voodoo) Trump is making some headway in the winning direction but still not yet there. Only one poll counts Nov. 8 2016 so hopefully the Gut pollster does well this time. Cheering for Yamits greps (belch) poll.
@ Bear Klein:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ccV3t-U-LM
@ Bear Klein:
Rasmussin does not poll cell phones only land lines
We Told You the MSM Polls Were CRAP=> Hillary Drops 8 Pts in 4 Days in Latest WaPo Poll
GOP Pollster Rasmussen say the following: He samples the most GOP historically.
@ bernard ross:
Remember Klein despite all empirical evidence still believes BB is a right winger and a great PM. Nuff said 🙂
@ Bear Klein:
@ bernard ross:
I believe most Republicans will vote Trump in the end which is worth a point or two. White non college males and Independents who have never voted some 40% of the electorate will in massive numbers vote for Trump this time and are not counted in the polling.Higher % of blacks and Hispanics will vote for Trump than are counted in most polls.Most Bernie supporters and students will not vote.
All together barring some unexpected Trump fuck-up I see a Trump landslide. Michael More is right-on and every word of his polemic should be embedded in this discussion. TRUMP ELECTION WILL BE THE BIGGEST ‘F-U’ IN HUMAN HISTORY….AND IT WILL FEEL GOOD!!!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_y1TC5w–w
Bear Klein Said:
NO, you can believe anything you want and say you think he is going to lose everyday… but what you do is try to convince others that he will lose based on 3rd party polls. You try to pass it off as facts……
what I find strange is that you are following the exact MO that the dems use to conduct a campaign of “digital disruption”. In my view the odds are very high against that coincidence and i was hoping that you could show us why the odds would be wrong in this case
see how it agrees exactly with what you described that you do?
Bear Klein Said:
What are the odds of that?
If I were a follower of polls and odds I would say you might be a dem operative engaged in “digital disruption”… but instead of following the odds regarding that incredible coincidence I rely on my knowledge of facts. 🙂
BTW I notice that you never answer any questions I put to you which are specific on your polls and sources.
Bear Klein Said:
NO, thats your error…. I dont vote according to odds… polls are irrelevant to me because they have no bearing on what I will do. Making arguments for or against Trump might influence me if I am able to find the supporting evidence in fact for those arguments but polls, even if accurate merely reflect the current opinions of others…. why should that even matter to anyone I wonder? I have no belief as to his winning or losing AND I have no NEED to arrive at a belief. I know that facts are not based on beliefs but are independent of beliefs. Futhermore, I have determined for myself that polls are much too easily influenced and bought to be taken seriously…. but what can one do with it even if one, like you, takes it seriously.
I am very curious as to why you are so interested in polls.. do you vote according to polls. The daily polling in my view is absurd… it like hearing a prediction of a boxing match blow by blow over the radio… almost absurd. Why would I be interested in poll results. those who pay for and produce polls are interested in either receiving money for the poll, getting ratings from viewers of the poll or manipulating poll viewers votes.
there was a time, when I was a teenager that I had an interest in odds for poker and black jack and roulette and horse racing… but that interest was related to making a decision for wagering… I am not wagering in an election… I am voting. therefore, no interest in odds, polls etc.
Bear Klein Said:
no, if they could not even win with registered gop they would never have a chance… Trump not only won registered gop but he has platforms which also can appeal to independents. Why discuss Kasich, he never even got out of the gate?
Bear Klein Said:
this is where you go wrong… you beleive that because you buy into peoples arguments that others do the same…. its called projection. I noticed that when you never answered to any detailed questions I put to you. I dont follow peoples arguments, I go to the source to make an evaluation. I followed no argument on trump… I was initially turned off by his personality totally, and still am…. however, I listened to what he actually said, researched what he actually did.. I then quickly came to a conclusion that his simplistic presentation was in fact usually accurate and MORE IMPORTANTLY I noticed that he was being grossly misrepresented in the media and by politicians.. the clearest of these was the ongoing canard that he was anti semitic. I did this on my own, no one could give me an argument to follow. It appears that you latch on to other parties and follow them instead.
As for cruz, although his words were pro Israel, I found his delivery also offputting and insincere… the fact that he was a conservative ideologue and evangelical also made me feel he was not qualified because he would make decisisons according to his religion and ideology and I only vote for pragmatists. He was also inexperienced in the world outside of law and politics compared to trumps experience in achievement. For me it was a no brainer once I made trumps delivery and personality far down on my list of priorities… after all I wasnt voting for a speechmaker.
Bear Klein Said:
LOL, sez who???? they couldnt even get anything with GOP voters…. delusional.
Bear Klein Said:
nothing to do with professional, its to do with corruption… that is something I beleive you dont understand about politicians AND the media. they are professional, but corrupt…. which better explains what is happening.
Bear Klein Said:
Your and my optimism is irrelevant to facts… EXCEPT…mystics and quantum physics scientists say that both can influence facts. Therefore, the creation of optimism and pessimism by poll is the real goal of polls… not to give present facts.
Bear Klein Said:
there are only two candidates so one can be correct 50% of the time by chance. But, what is your interest in polls, I have no interest because I do not vote according to polls. In a horse race with odds I might consider the odds in making my choice but that does not apply in an election…. so why would I have ANY interest in a poll?
Bear Klein Said:
are you going to vote according to the bookies odds? if not then the analogy makes no sense….. the question is: what is your purpose in consulting polls and in giving poll results to others unless you want those polls to have an influence?
I really thought Romney was the salt of the earth and really believed he would be a great President (Pro Israel and great for the economy).
Most of the pollsters had him losing except for the Rasmussen Report. He was arguing that the Dems were being over sampled and that the turnout would be lower for African Americans because they had not done that well term one plus the youth would not show up in the same numbers again.
I bought into his arguments as they were what I wanted to hear. I wanted to believe this and until election day I believed it.
It is possible some people who really love Trump are finding ways to believe he will win in-spite of the odds that he will probably lose. Anyone who says different or passes information were others say this is not likely is either a conspirator against the election of Trump or something else evil.
Rubio and Kasich would have fared better because of much much lower negatives.
I hate Hillary and do not want her to be POTUS but the above seems true.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-more-unpopular-than-clinton-is-and-that-matters/
@ bernard ross:zOnly one correction on your four comments. One actually I am not sure Cruz would have fared any better. He would have gotten all the GOP votes unlike Trump but then he may not have gotten some of working class voters Trump is getting and I have no idea which is the larger number.
Kaisch & Rubio have the broadest appeal demographically and is why they poll way higher than Trump in a general election. Their negatives are way down from Trump.
There is a very unfair unprofessional media machine that works with the Democrats. They look for any soundbite to jump on. E.G. Romney and the 47% crack. This took him down. Trump has been easy pickings for them. He can NOT stay on message of the things that work for him border security, immigration, economics and jobs. He can not take a punch and roll with it and get focused with what works. All his friends and advisers tell him that but he does not listen for long.
He still has a chance and I hope he wins but I am not optimistic.
By the way most of the last elections have been called correctly except Reagan- Carter. So there is hope this will also be in error. Trump needs an inside straight to get enough of the swing states. Polls do not always work but many times they do. Pointing out a single poll in the past where they may not have been correct does not mean other polls do not work.
It sort of like the bookies in Vegas sometimes they get it wrong but mostly they get it correct. Then I am dealing with statistics and not conspiracy theories.
Bear Klein Said:
please continue to comment as it enables discussion
a good indication of corruption is knowing that the so called conservative media outlet fox news is owned by open border murdoch and a saudi prince. Perhaps this explains why murdoch sons are now considering CNN Zucker as a possible replacement of ailes. In any case it is interesting to see them squirm with their schizoid MO of sometimes appearing to support trump but then engaging in obvious crookery with murdoch pimping megyn to do his dirty work. They are torn between the money from trumps ratings and the money from murdochs dem open border agenda…. a capitalist dillema.
Bear Klein Said:
actually, what was unwelcome has been the obvious sabotaging of trump by the GOP establishment candidates and their donors. both those candidates and their donors not only violated their agreements with Trump but also violated their trust with the majority of registered republicans who wanted Trump as their candidate. If Trump loses it will be primarily due to the GOP overt and covert sabotage and lack of support. GOP candidates not endorsing Trump shows that they do not agree with the GOP base but with the money that funds their campaigns. Trump showed us all what crooks the GOP are and why they are no longer credible as a party in their present form. Trumps has exposed and given rationality to the GOP congress MO and that their handing everything to Obama was NOT incompetence but instead a covert betrayal of trust… amnesty, iran, TPP… these are exposed as intentional… therefore there is nothing about them which can be trusted again… they must be reconstituted or die as a party. Bush is the main corrupting inluence on the party… his grandfather funded the nazis and he kept pollard in jail with his cia blackmail files. Bush is the GOP, even if a bush falls out.
@ Ted Belman:
Bear Klein Said:
why does this sound familiar?
Is this a coincidence Bears posting MO appears congruent with the
“digital disruption” techniques of the dem party?
How would they know that 538 poll averages would be friendly?
I am just making an observation that it is an exact replica, what makes it different?
Bear Klein Said:
but I note that more than 75% of those polls appear to be tied to media outlets which have demonstrated bias in their editorials. How do you account for thatin your RCP poll? I noticed that Nate Silver himself demonstrated bias in an article on Trump also and he is the one picking which polls and how to weight them. If one is picking biased media related polling why not pick an equal number of biased polls for each party? To me it seems absurd to follow polls related to media outlets that have previously demonstrated a willingness to bias AND to intentional innacurate news reporting. E.G. Why would I give credibility to a poll related to a media outlet that has previously published as news intentionally innacurate news articles on Israel or Iraq? This would demonstrate to me a willingness to twist facts for corrupt motivations. since I am aware that big money employs media and polls this to me should be the major consideration.
Bear Klein Said:
You are welcome to post your opinions… no one has ever asked you to stop posting… but you cannot expect to post without others expressing opinions about your posts and their accuracy. If your polls are published without also publishing their deficits it would present a distorted view of reality… therefore others must take up the responsibility to post.
Since you mention Cruz, and since you appear to support the luntz narrative that cruz, rubio et al would be doing better as the candidate… which was your narrative prior to the Trump primary landslide which wiped out your candidates among registered republicans… I would suggest that the prime reason for Trump being behind is the intentional sabotage of the GOP bitter establishment republican losers who are willing to sacrifice the interests of the nation to promulgate their personal and donor agenda… this was proven by the GOP colluding with obama on TPP, iran, amnesty.
You never explained why the polls had it all wrong with Reagan or why Silver’s analysis of his win was innaccurate?
Here is another unmentioned factor in these polls from direct experience: pollsters call me all the time, but most of the time I blow them off…. how is that shown in the polls.. who is more likely to blow off pollsters…. hillary supporters or Trump supporters? I say Trump supporters because they are less interested in manipulating voters through subterfuge like dems. No trump trolls are flooding the internet with “digital disruption”, or buying up voting machine corps like Soros, or funding violent mobs like the dems.
Bear Klein Said:
why is your choosing a weighted average of pollsters connected with demonstratedly biased media houses which are themselves selected by silver who has demonstrated bias……”objective”?
There are 2 candidates and one will win and one lose…
It is not enough to say an outcome was predicted because it is well known that the outcome can be manipulated by biased polls… the same science obtains in the theory of relativity where light nfluences the results. this becomes especially important when we can see… very obviously… the enormous amount of money, media, resources which are used illegally to influence the outcome.. violence, polls, articles, media, dirty tricks, soros machines… all this should be enough to convince folks that nothing can be trusted to be beyond the manipulation.
Ted, actually I am not trying to be negative as I am listing polls en mass per REal Clear Politics and the 538.com polls plus forecast. It is not a cup half full approach but more of an analytical approach. The analysis these polls and forecasts are making is indeed not good for Trump.
These polls and forecasts include the ones who show better and worse for Trump. I understand that may not be a popular approach. I believe these are the best analytical tools around.
Polls are a snapshot in time. Trump based on the forecasts has about 1 in 7 or at best a 1 in 6 chance to win. Meaning one would expect that with these type of numbers in the race one could statistically expect one to win every 6 or 7 elections. So there is a chance not a good one however.
The best I personally see him doing on my own reading of the swing states is coming up one state short. This is the same reading many GOP commentators believe.
Ted, just email me to quit commenting on the race and I will. This race has pissed off a lot of people and is very divisive. This great Israel blog has lost a lot commentators because Cruz and other supporters no longer felt welcome at Israpundit. I find very few people who can stand back take themselves away from who they want to win and try and be objective.
@ Bear Klein:
I keep stressing the positive whereas you prefer to stress the negative. That’s OK by me. But the polls have many faults which I am sure that you can enumerate better than I. What is the effect of oversampling?
They do not take into account what may be different this time around. They are simply a picture in time, all things being equal. Correct me if I am wrong. Do they make adjustment for the enthusiasm gap. Do they make adjustment for the absence of Obama on the ticket. Do they adjust for the effect of the Hillary scandals? Do they factor in the variance in the rally crowds or the preponderance of Trump signs or what has happened in early voting so far.
\Please tell us what the polls don’t account for.
Electoral votes 538.com
Hillary Clinton
326.6
Donald Trump
210.2
Evan McMullin
1.1
Gary Johnson
0.1
Popular vote
Hillary Clinton
49.2%
Donald Trump
43.6%
Gary Johnson
5.6%
Other
1.6%
Real Clear Politics
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein (2-Way Race)
13.7k Shares
RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes | Latest Polls
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
Stein (G)
Spread
RCP Average 10/15 – 10/26 — — 45.7 40.3 5.8 1.8 Clinton +5.4
FOX News 10/22 – 10/25 1221 LV 2.5 44 41 7 3 Clinton +3
ABC News Tracking 10/22 – 10/25 1135 LV 3.0 48 42 5 1 Clinton +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/21 – 10/26 945 LV 3.3 43 41 8 2 Clinton +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 – 10/25 1500 LV 2.5 44 43 4 1 Clinton +1
USA Today/Suffolk 10/20 – 10/24 1000 LV 3.0 47 38 4 2 Clinton +9
Reuters/Ipsos 10/20 – 10/24 1170 LV 3.3 42 38 7 2 Clinton +4
Associated Press-GfK 10/20 – 10/24 1212 LV — 51 37 6 2 Clinton +14
CNN/ORC 10/20 – 10/23 779 LV 3.5 49 44 3 2 Clinton +5
NBC News/SM 10/17 – 10/23 32225 LV 1.0 46 41 7 3 Clinton +5
Quinnipiac 10/17 – 10/18 1007 LV 3.1 47 40 7 1 Clinton +7
Economist/YouGov 10/15 – 10/18 925 RV 3.9 42 38 6 1 Clinton +4
@ Russell:
The article referred to an AP poll. It is definitely an outlier,
The article said Trump insisted he was winning.
Donald Trump in the second debate exposed Hillary Clinton for what she is a traitor and an inept elected official who abused her position and violated the American peoples trust. The crimes, fraud and lies committed by Hillary Clinton and her husband is a travesty. Donald Trump is not a politician, what he did is talk. The Clinton’s actually did it. Actions speak louder than words.
What Hillary Clinton did with the 33,000 emails and lying to Congress is an offense that must be investigated by an independent prosecutor and charges must be brought against her for violating her oath of office and abusing the trust of the American people. As a lawyer who is disbarred she should know better. If any criminal admits his mistake, does that absolve him of the crime or the Jail sentence, why should Hillary Clinton get a pass. No one is above the law.
Ted, Indepenent On Line was reporting today on Yahoo News that the Trump campaign have admitted that they are losing by 12 points – do you know anything about this.. Heaven forbid it to be true..
I love this guy! I love all of his policies. Especially limiting Muslim immigration. Do Americans not see what is happening in Europe? I don’t know how anyone would vote for Hillary over him.
I wish he’d mention the dangerous Iran deal that Obama and Hillary shoved down the world’s throat more often. Also he needs to underscore all the radical Islamist terrorist events that have occurred within and without the US and tell US citizens that if Hillary is elected, it’s guaranteed that more and worse terrorist events will occur! Democrats need to be jolted out of their slumber and focus on serious, catastrophic events that will surely play out if Hillary is elected and stop focusing on the nasty words that Trump said about a woman years back. I know it’s not easy when the mainstream media like CNN replays the audio tape over and over again. But I have faith in the ordinary man. We are not that naive nor stupid. Trump is not perfect (who is?) but he hasn’t succumbed to the dangerous disease we call political correctness. To sum up:
Trump sometimes says stupid stuff but Hillary is directly responsible for the deaths of 4 brave Americans in Libya and when confronted with that terrible tragedy she and her boss tried to blame it on a video!