By Jim Hoft, Gateway Pundit Oct 18th, 2016 10:02 am
Ann Coulter warned in her book Slander in 2003 that the far left main stream media always uses polls to push their agenda. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result.
Main stream media skews polls to discourage potential voters from voting and has done it for years.
A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.
Another example of mainstream liberal media bias was in 1988. A Gallup Poll from July 26 showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. Of course Bush went on to thump Dukakis in the general election.
This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
Expert Analysis
With all the liberal distortions and dishonesty we decided to have a small team of actuarial and statistics professionals take a look at a couple of the recent polls to get their take on the reliability of these polls. They selected the recent FOX poll from October 14 showing Hillary up by 7 and the WSJ/NBC poll from October 16 showing Hillary with an 11 point lead.
The first observation is that both polls are heavily skewed towards Democrats. At a high level, the FOX poll consists of 43 Dems to 36 Reps to 21 Other while the NBC poll shows 44 Dems to 37 Reps to 19 Other.
By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.
Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.
Clearly the polls using data that is heavily weighted towards Democrat voters is incorrectly skewed.
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.
The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.
Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.
Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.
If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.
Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.
Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.
Some of you know that we developed a cumulative polling system which is manned by mostly high school students and other young people here in Israel. Its results were credible for Israel.
I tried and to some extent done the same in the USA, with much less volunteering there. Lots of fear and apathy.
Only high schools from six states contributed so far and also only 17000 or so data points collected. Only US citizens included.
The progression trend is still showing Clinton ahead by one point at election day! Mr. Trump has gained quite a bit of ground and that margin is not one I would go to the bank with as the MoE is 5. Clinton has not by any means secured a voter majority.
Electoral College numbers we do not have.
Regression analysis results are yet too fragile to use.
“Polls” in the US in their vast majority are grossly manipulated and are of little value. More or less the same here or in Britain.
It’s like relying on divination. For decades, we have been counting on New Hampshire or Ohio as indicators — though when Ohio went to Trump, they decided it was a thing of the past — does it go back to the Middletown Studies? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middletown_studies. Is there really such a thing as a representative sampling of anything all the time? I mean it works with red and green marbles because there is only one variable.
And now, for years, now we have even been relying on foreign sources. Why would the Poles know more about how we are going to vote than we ourselves? It’s ridiculous. I’m leaving first.
Czech, please!
Larry Sabato at the Univ. of Virginia is a well known conservative predictor of elections. He has Hillary winning by a large amount of electoral votes more than likely 341 to 197.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
There are more Dems. Each pollster uses a different demographic or party sampling size. Rasmussen a GOP pollster usually has 2 points more GOP sampling in his polls. In the last election he was the only one to show Romney winning. He lost unfortunately.
This why looking at forecaster such as 538.com who uses a statistical model weighing different polls based on past accuracy and how recent the poll was made is the most accurate. This will account for variations in the polling models.
http://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-maps-derived-from-fivethirtyeight-forecasts