stlouisix
Simultaneous Polling Shifts – Media Switching to “Likely Voters”…
Posted on September 15, 2016 by sundance
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As we noted in the Bloomberg poll a few days ago (they were first – and we could tell something was up), the pollsters are shifting their methodology. Almost every poll release in the past 72 hours has been using “Likely Voters” instead of “Registered Voters“.
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When the methodology changes, so too does the result. Multiple polls are now presenting Donald Trump as the lead candidate. Actually, far more than the graphic above.
According to Monmouth (pollster Patrick Murray) Donald Trump is now leading 45% to Clinton’s 37% (see here). Trump is also winning in Colorado 42/38 (see here). Fox News also shifted their national methodology (pollster Daron Shaw) (see here) and now shows Donald Trump in the lead:
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Why and HOW did all the pollsters simultaneously come to the same decision?
Beats the heck out of me.
Seriously.
I can’t come up with a reasonable, intellectually honest, explanation about how a half dozen polling outfits could possibly make a specific decision, simultaneously – without going into a lengthy conversation about how the top of the feeder pool, the corporate media controllers, communicate amid themselves.
Absent of a national convention of media polling consultants convening after Labor Day, the only reasonable explanation can be instructions from the penthouse suites.
However, while it might be challenging to figure out HOW the pollsters came to the conclusion, the WHY aspect is perhaps a little less difficult.
As we have continually outlined, the media polls are horsepucky. Not just now, all year. Media polls carry the same ideological bias as the media broadcast. The most likely reason for the WHY, is they are positioning to save their credibility.
These media polling presentations can’t keep claiming Hillary is ahead by 10 points all the way to election day, and then have an election where she loses 55/45, (10 points in the exact opposite direction) without a complete collapse of any media polling credibility.
Ergo, make some adjustments now…
But don’t get too happy, almost all of the polling outfits are still using the 2012 election turnouts in the partisanship or party turnout projections/assumptions. If they ever get around to adjusting the turnout assumptions, watch out… they might begin predicting Trump in a landslide….
Wait?.. Wha?… Huh?… Yeah, well, never mind.
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Technopeasant
LA Times daily tracking poll (Sept 16):
Trump: 47.4% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.3)
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DT+ 6.4
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DT tied his all-time overall high for support first set on July 28.
HC tied her all-time low-water mark margin over DT with college grads (+8.6) that was first set on July 25.
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Hillary’s numbers with A/A continue to plummet: HC: 73.0 DT: 19.5 HC:+53.5
(was +56.1 yesterday)
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