Ted Belman
There are two polls out now after the conventions.
Boom! Latest L.A. Times Daybreak Poll Shows Trump Up Up Up!
Trump; 46.1% (-0.5)
Clinton: 41.9% (+0.2)
The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans’ opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The “Daybreak poll” is updated just after midnight every day of the week.
Public Policy Polling finds “Clinton leads the race with 46% to 41% for Trump,”
But, according to a poll expert, the PPP national poll released last night has three flaws:
1) Of respondents, 52% voted for Obama in 2012, 41% voted for Romney, an 11 point margin; the actual margin was 3.9%.
2) 34% of those polled claimed they were liberal or partially liberal. At most liberals only comprise 25% of the voting population.
3) In terms of party affiliation D: 43 R: 36 I: 21, grossly underrepresents independents and grossly over-samples Democrats.
JFK, a democrat, won because the demo cheated. Nixon “ELECTED” NOT to contest in order not to divide the country. This is a from a recent program on CNN!!!
Just a REMINDER! Must have been an “Alinsky victory”.
has no one ever noticed that all the election frauds and violence are related to the democratic party and democratic voters?
Fraudulent polls are bought in the same way that fraudlent news is bought from the MSM. There are lots of ways its done, here is the latest:
In the early days the polls are rigged more in order to fool voters who like to vote for winners… as time goes on the pollsters find ways to adjust their polls to a greater accuracy because they also dont want to lose their credibility as pollsters. They use sudden bumps and events to make larger adjustments to their prior frauds which are then presented to the public as sudden voter change.
My prediction is Hillary wins because the entire U.S. electoral system is corrupt from top to bottom. Many voter rolls contain people who are dead, illegal aliens and duplications. The media misrepresents the news to misinform the public. Voting machines are extremely vulnerable to hacking. The internet shows how someone with a laptop can sit in a car near the voting place and easily alter the votes. No evidence of fraud and no one will ever know. The polls may show a Trump lead but surprise, surprise Hillary pulls a “surprise” upset. We can thank the criminally stupid Republican party for their failure to ever notice and correct these glaring problems.
Latest from 538.com They update their poll collections and forecasts a few times each day. They use three different models. Worth checking out their site as they analyze polls grade them and put this into a statistical model which has the highest success rate. They only use polls which show all four candidates. On the site the models are explained in depth. They analyze by the state polls as only this gets you to the electoral college tally. National polls show trends but do not help with the electoral college breakdown forecast.
Currently on the polls only: Who will win the presidency?
Chance of winning
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton
50.0%
Donald Trump
50.0%
FiveThirtyEight
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/