By Ted Belman
Commentary has taken the trouble to assemble these critical articles on Trump’s major policy proposals. A lot more could be said but these critiques say a lot. Like I said in one of my critiques, “easier said than done”.
What Trump has going for him is not whether he can fulfill his promises but that he has identified and cashed in on, the popular discontent.
Taking Trump seriously on Israel focusses not so much on his more recent pronouncements but on his earlier ones where he spoke more from his gut.
When Trump lists the erstwhile partners guilty of such grifting—Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia—he mostly excludes Israel. But as the largest recipient of U.S. military aid in the world, Jerusalem is only one breath away. Any inclination to back Israel would have to override decades-long inclinations on Trump’s part and would violate one of the few consistent stands he has taken. Trump’s gut comments—the best guide to what he would do as president—indicate that the Jewish state would fit too seamlessly in his litany of moochers to escape his gaze.
Trump might first turn that gaze to the moribund Israeli–Palestinian peace process, where he promises there is “nothing that I would rather do” than strike a deal. He mentions this aspiration so frequently that he would likely follow one presidential tradition worth breaking: attempting to ride the conflict to a legacy-clinching moonshot. For Israel, that is a familiar path to unilateral concessions and more war. Trump would make it even more perilous by being a “neutral guy.” If Washington assumed that stance, Jerusalem would have no major power behind it—even as the Palestinians deployed the Islamic world and a growing cadre of European capitals. And if talks floundered, Trump would likely blame Israel. “A lot will have to do with Israel and whether or not Israel wants to make the deal,” he said last year, “whether or not Israel’s willing to sacrifice certain things.” Any difficulties in capturing his golden deal could lead an enraged Trump to punish Israel. Trumpian retribution could lead to a global sanctions campaign that would cripple Israel’s economy or to security arrangements that would leave extremists in charge of the West Bank and Jerusalem with little power to respond.
Trump’s views on the broader region offer little comfort. He wonders why we should care if Russia resurrects itself as a great power in the Middle East, and he speaks with sweeping bigotry about Islam. His frustrations with America’s recent fortunes in that neighborhood are understandable. But abandoning the field to Moscow and alienating local partners would only spur on the chaos now threatening Europe and Africa, making Israel’s borders less stable than ever. And, most dangerous for Jerusalem, it would embolden Iran. Trump has repeatedly suggested that he would uphold the Iran nuclear agreement (despite calling it a terrible deal) and has complained that Tehran cannot use its Obama-granted sanctions relief to buy American missiles and planes. Given new leeway, and tacit U.S. support, the Islamic Republic would double down on its wars against Sunni powers and probe Israel’s defenses with greater daring. And it would advance its nuclear program to the point of full immunity and no return.
Trump’s impulses suggest he would depart the Middle East as conclusively as the British did following World War II—leaving the region without the presence of a major Western power for the first time in over a century. This is all the more alarming given his views on the U.S.-Israel defense relationship. Just before his AIPAC speech, Trump suggested that he would make Jerusalem pay for defense aid. “I think Israel,” he said, “can pay big league.” That may include renegotiating or canceling the Memorandum of Understanding, which underwrites the bulk of U.S. aid to Israel, or attempting to shed America’s commitment to Israel’s qualitative military edge over its rivals. Even a modest reduction in defense partnership would leave Israel exposed at a moment of maximum Middle East bedlam and invite adversaries to ramp up the pressure. It would mean nothing less than cutting the cords on the alliance.
Trump may not follow through on anything he says; there is always the chance he is led, against his irritable mental gestures, toward sound policy. Yet the core menace of a Trump presidency to Israel is ultimately the menace it poses to America itself. Israel does not merely need guns and missiles, but the global armor of American leadership. A world in which the United States betrays bedrock alliances, cozies up with enemies, and raises the drawbridge is a world in which the Jewish state will struggle to endure.
I do not share this view. Trump wants to spend much more than now on defense. Investing in Israel makes it certain that less will have to be spent directly on building up the US military.
Secondly the Israel/Arab conflict is the least of the US concerns. Why look for trouble when you have to worry about all the other more pressing problems.
LOL, this guy, who is not a businessman does not understand Trump. The key is his propensity to make deals and forge alliances to lower costs… by subcontracting out tasks to others.. like he talks about with the russians. he will seek to lower costs… BUT… he is smart enough to see the enourmous advantage of Israel and a dependable ally who can save the US a lot of money if the US takes the opportunities. If you take away the past diplomatic BS Trump will see that Israel is the best single reliable location AND reliable alliance. I predict that he will militarily get closer to Israel and that will cut USA costs. Much of the US expenses are more diplomatic now but I think he will cut out cash to places like lebanon where the cash ends up with hezbollah and to Iraq. Israel is the the most loyal and dependable ally that the US has…. especially if war breaks out… only Israel has not blocked US requests. Trump will be great for Israel because he will see the objective and practical issues and cut out all those payments which get the US nothing… like to the PA and others. AND, he will initiate a synergy, again saving costs between the military and the economic R&D sectors…. who else can he do that with in the ME? He can cut cost substantially with smart thinking and that is the route he took in dealing with bloated gov before…. the wolman rink.
Trump will win on first ballot easily, there will be a rush from cruz
(Cited from Ted Belman’s comment about the article on Trump published in Commentary Magazine.)
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That’s a very good argument for backing Trump both as the Republican Party nominee and in the presidential election, which now all but certainly will be Trump vs Clinton.
Any other candidate will either be all but coating the Jewish state with saliva from endless love and kisses, or will be threatening the Jewish state with demands for surrendering pieces of land vital for Israel’s defenses and/or Israel’s ability to expand its Jewish population and economy, without which — in the long term — Israel likely could not survive.
In any case, what Israel really needs is true national independence, based on the power to go it alone and make economic and defense-related pacts with other world powers.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker