By Mathew Continetti, NEW BEACON
President Obama is playing a cynical game. He’s consistently raised Donald Trump’s profile in an attempt to boost the mogul’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. Obama’s theory is that Trump is unelectable. And it’s true that Trump is the only candidate in the Republican field who consistently loses in general election match ups against Hillary Clinton. A Trump nomination, Democrats believe, would be the best way to hold the White House for another four years.
Does the idea that Trump is unelectable sound familiar? It should. Republican elites said much the same thing in the six months preceding Trump’s second place finish in Iowa and first place finish in New Hampshire. The GOP’s top political consultants laughed Trump off, calling him names and saying he didn’t have a chance. Now he’s on track to winning the nomination. While I still believe he would be the underdog in a general election, there are several reasons the Democrats are underestimating his powers. Here are seven:
Clinton’s Lead Is Surmountable
Clinton enjoys a 2.8-point advantage over Trump in the current Real Clear Politics average of polls. Not exactly a landslide.
Trump’s Positions are Popular
Typically a Republican candidate moves to the right during a primary in order to win over conservatives. But the positions that candidate takes in the primary can hurt him in the general election. But Trump hasn’t moved in any direction. He’s consistently voiced his opposition to illegal immigration, free trade, foreign wars, “people dying in the streets,” and entitlement cuts. Support for the Great Wall of Trump is mixed, but the public supports the Trump view of trade and foreign policy. And Trump is closer to the general electorate on social issues than the other Republican candidates. His position on Planned Parenthood, for example, is that it should not receive federal funding until it exits the abortion business. Polling bolsters this stance.
Trump Will Have Months to Find and Occupy the Political Center
At this point it’s possible that Trump will secure the Republican nomination in three weeks. After Florida and Ohio vote, Trump will turn his attention to the general election. He’ll be free to hone his message and adapt to the new environment. His most likely opponent, however, may still be embroiled in a contested primary. Fueled by small dollar contributions, Bernie Sanders is unlikely to leave the Democratic race any time soon. So Hillary will be running against both Bernie and Trump. And Trump will have time to figure out which lines against her work and which do not. He will use his earned media to define Clinton as weak on immigration, trade, foreign policy, and fitness for office. If past is prologue, Trump’s attacks will be loud, nasty, over the top. And they’ll work.
Hillary Clinton is a Terrible Presidential Candidate
Hillary is vulnerable. She’s the insider, Trump’s the outsider. Wall Street loves her, hates him. She’s a retread, he’s new to politics. Her own party does not trust her or think her honest. She’s dogged by the email scandal. Who knows what else she’ll have to respond to in the coming months. On the stump she’s flat, unfunny. Trump is dynamic and comical. Obama adviser David Axelrod has notedthe contrast. It doesn’t favor Hillary.
The Country Wants Change
Supermajorities say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Clinton, meanwhile, is the candidate of the status quo. And Democrats suffer from an enthusiasm gap. It’s evident in polls and in turnout. Trump is bringing new voters in, while Democratic turnout is down from 2008. Republican conventions are usually staid and somber affairs. Not with Trump as the nominee. The Democratic convention will look like a wake in comparison.
Michael Bloomberg’s Entry into the Race Would Help Trump
The few polls that have included Michael Bloomberg in a three-way race for president show the New York mayor taking votes not from Republicans but Democrats. Stands to reason, as Bloomberg is a cultural liberal whose top issues are gun control and climate change. Trump, meanwhile, is running as a pro-lifer and champion of the Second Amendment and enjoys evangelical support.
Global Chaos Helps Trump
Trump’s response to the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino greatly helped his chances. Imagine if another attack occurs during the presidential campaign. The same goes for a recession, or for chaos in China or on the Korean Peninsula or between Russia and Turkey. Would voters want to stick with the party that led us to this place? Or would they be willing to try their luck with the billionaire strongman?
Democrats will launch a two-pronged attack on Trump: They’ll attempt to define him as a racist and as unfit for the presidency. It could work. But remember that general election campaigns are contests between two candidates. Who’s proven to be the tougher, more agile, more compelling politician over the last six months: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? And who has proven more resistant to attack?
The Democrats say Donald Trump is a joke. They call him names, dismiss his chances. What they do not understand is that we are in the midst of a political phenomenon not unlike the one that brought Barack Obama to the White House. You can’t stop it. You can’t control it. Donald Trump is tearing apart the GOP. And the Democrats are next.
Republican
69.9% Reporting
Delegates Allocated: 23/40
Delegates
Winner T. Cruz 51.0% 21,569 17
D. Trump 24.2% 10,229 6
M. Rubio 14.4% 6,099
J. Kasich 9.0% 3,803
B. Carson 0.8% 346
Uncommitted 0.4% 155
J. Bush 0.1% 55
C. Fiorina 0.1% 25
Read more: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president#ixzz424YZmUcp
Inn my opinion the dangerous clown is haim saban. where does he come off insulting a presidential candidate with a large following. saban is dangerous to diaspora jews. He is a big mouth arrogant fool drawing attention to the big mouth pushy Israeli and jew foreigner who comes to american takes billions states that Israel is his most important concern, not america. If I were Trump I would draw attention to this guy as a foreigner, ungrateful for what he sucked out of america….. a billionaire when many complain of the billions going now to Israel. Insulting the lead gop candidate in that manner with such arrogance shows massive indiscretion as to how such behavior will bode poorly for Jews. In fact, there are too many jews who have been insulting Trump in personal ways that are unnecessary. If Trump draws nazzis it will be because of such Jews. He thinks his money entitles him to insult everyone. I am sure that Donald will seek revenge, just as I would. Saban supports the anti semite clinton and the dems because he is one of those donors which everyone talks of, another Jew donor with a big mouth. Saban does not know enough to know that even though he got american citizenship he is considered a foreigner sucking the life blood of the american people. Why does he support a party which is so anti Israel and pretends to be pro Israel rather than a greedy self serving glutton. sorry to say we have the same birthdate. Most of the dems that saban funds support jew hatred. so many jews are vociferously against Trump in ugly and insulting ways I would not be surprised if it waters down his support of Israel which he has clearly stated support, in spite of the dishonest ones who try to say he is neutral on Israel when he clearly stated that as a broker he must act nuetral, which has nothing to do with his repeated support. If I was insulted so much by jews and now this big mouth pushy Israeli billionaire foreigner who is trying to buy american elections, I would move towards not giving a crap about Israel. what a schmuck. If I were president Trump I would look to kick saban out and take his money away. Israel has no support in the dem party and soon fool jews will take the support of the GOP away.
So you do not like Kasich so what. I like practical people who have balanced budgets and can get along with people. I understand he has virtually zero chance. So my second choice is Cruz who needs to win 59% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.
The self-proclaimed adult!
Did you know his father was a mailman?
Kasich expanded Medicare in Ohio to make Obamacare universal. He did so by accepting federal funding, which has created the illusion of Nirvana: everyone in Ohio now gets health care with no need to raise state taxes. Magical free stuff!!!
But it is a cruel deception. When the federal subsidies inevitably end, Ohio will experience a devastating economic crisis. Taxes will skyrocket, but that will be the problem of Kasich’s successor. He will be back on Wall Street enjoying the substantial benefits of having betrayed his constituents on behalf of the Fortune 500.
Kasich has always been a smoke-and-mirrors Republican, a big government statist who balances budgets using accounting tricks. He is an exemplar of everything that is wrong with the GOP.
View of Donald Trump –
Unfavorable58.5% Favorable41.5%
SUGGESTED POLL READINGS: “Unfavorable” responses are significantly less common among Republicans, compared to Democrats, independents, and other. | Between Feb 24?? and Mar 1??, “Favorable” responses declined rapidly in the Far West states, compared to the rest of the
Arnold you love Retuers. I am not try to bait you by the way (just pointing out you thought they were a good source of information).
My candidates by the irregardless of their actual chances to win nomination are: Kasich (1), Cruz (2) and anyone but Hillary/Bernie. So I would vote Trump in lieu of the clearly anti-Israel Democrats (my number one issue).
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM4_26_SCALE
@ ArnoldHarris:
Rasmussen will continue to run polls. A poll is a snapshot in time it is not final time (eg election).
This is the current snapshot. Arnold anything that is not rosy Trump you act defensively and stop times aggressive. Just like Trump when the polls are in his favor they are great polls but if not his way I do not like that pollster.
I understand you are passionate about Trump and believe great things about him. So you feel you must defend Trump.
Just like you hated the forecast about Ohio. Want to wager a shekel that Kasich does win OHIO and you can take Trump?
@ Bear Klein:
BK, asking people in early March whom they will vote against in early November is more or less like flipping a coin.
But one for sure is that in all the primary elections to date this year, people voting for Republicans have greatly increased while people voting for Democrats have greatly shrunk.
The reason most often cited is that Bill Clinton’s wife is running for president on the Democrat ticket, while Donald Trump is running for president on the Republican ticket.
Also, Trump is not the one who is now subject to what is all but certainly a Federal grand jury investigation by the FBI, complete with grants of prosecution immunity being for his testimony offered to Bryan Pagliano, the State Department employee who set up Hillary’s private email system in her home computer, through which passed thousands of State Department emails, much of which contained US security classified information, the mishandling of which is a serious felony under the United States Code.
Maybe you or Rasmussen may want to factor all that into your coin tossing.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Wednesday, March 2
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Rasmussen Reports Clinton 41, Trump 36 Clinton +5
Tuesday, March 1
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CNN/ORC Clinton 52, Trump 44 Clinton +8
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2016/trump_or_clinton_who_are_voters_most_likely_to_vote_against
@ babushka:
I will write more on this issue later, got an appt now.
babushka Said:
I tend to agree on this issue, however my own experience demonstrates that visas do need issuing in some categories… eg I agreed with Trump on the seasonal hotel business in south florida before he mentioned his reasoning, due to my own experience. On these visas it could be a game changer for me with trump, but I will vote for who fulfills my issues, ideology is irrelevant to me, and even dangerous.
The only need is corporate greed. Thirty-seven percent of Americans with Information Technology-related degrees are unemployed.
If trump is flip flopping on this, which is as yet not fully clear as he specifically mentioned silicon valley last night, I might be forced to vote for the socialist as there is no doubt from whom these policies originated.
I am not married to Trump, I am voting on MY issues, but as of this writing his position appears to me to be distorted from a specific mention of silicon valley to a general policy. His position on muslim immigration, illegal immigration, TPP and HB1 visascam are my main issues for voting for him… no other GOP is for these positions. I am not against HB1 visa if a demonstrated need but where abuse takes place and american workers are available, as has been happening with firing US workers and replacing with foreigners, I do not agree. Trump did say, very importantly, that he would put tariffs on imported manufacturers from those running abroad and china etc. I am for that, the GOP is not.
Because you are haunted by the subconscious realization that you are enabling evil.
You have a good weekend, Outspeaker. You are a good man, a patriot, and a Trump supporter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
@ babushka:
It has been made perfectly clear by Trump that special permits for limited numbers of work visas for special classes of aliens will be permitted. The numbers involved will be miniscule in comparison with the numbers of destitute, unskilled, peons hustled across the border by Mexican gangsters who abandon them to dehydration and sometimes death to avoid capture by American border police or local sheriffs such as the justifiably-famed Joe Arpaio of Arizona.
I am not certain what drives me to waste my time arguing with you about this election. I know from analysis of the numbers of voters and the polling trends they represent that my candidate — who is the candidate of all the millions of new Republican voters who joined up solely to put Trump in power this year — in comparison with the pair of losers from the do-nothing US Senate Republican side, both of whom will lost the Republican nomination to Trump. My side will win. Your side will lose. That’s what the numbers tell me, and in the long run, the numbers are what decide nearly all elections.
Trump has emerged as the most important candidate in either party, and when he inevitably takes power, it will rest firmly because of his acceptance by an entirely new class of voters, who want to make a new revolution in American governance. You, and everybody like you, cannot and will not be able to stop that. Because the more the professional politicians and the corrupt news media attack Trump, the more his growing millions of Americans support him even more strongly than before.
All that I know about you is that you hide behind a fake moniker. I don’t even know your country of residence. So I cannot know if you reside in the USA, or Israel, or some other English-speaking country. I, on the other hand, am an open book to everybody who visits Israpundit.
But for all that, I think you do not understand the American political temperament that is driving his coming dominance of American politics. Otherwise you would understand just why he is riding the waves of political victory, irrespective of the snide comments his opponents and the news media. In case you are wondering, I get nearly all my news from the Drudge Report, because Matt Drudge — who runs the most-visited website in this country, maintains strict neutrality in his online reports.
Anyway, it would be good advice for you not to ruin your health fantasizing and possibly agonizing about losing candidates who are more or less doomed to second-place or third-place status in most of the state primary elections and caucuses of this election campaign.
Shabat shalom. You, above all, probably need it.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
But Trump told you last night that he supports replacing American workers with foreigners. You have invented an ideal candidate and decided that Trump will fill the role, facts be damned.
Fascinating pathology.
@ Bear Klein:
I really do not care at all about what you describe as Trup’s policy “flip-flops”. All political candidates do that in contested elections. What is more significant is that few voters really care about such concerns as absolute consistency.
However, I think Trump will stick to the main points of strategic policies if he beats Hillary Clinton in the general election in November:
1) Building a high wall across the southern border of the United States, backed up with enough armed guards and possibly military force to make sure nobody crosses that border without legal authorization.
2) Relatively large-scale roundups and deportation of illegal aliens and their families, with shut-offs of any and all social services and employment in this country of all such persons.
3) Termination of trade agreements with countries such as China and Mexico, with their exports to this country subject to high tariffs, along with other domestic policies which will provide opportunities for American capital to safely invest in the large-scale re-industrialization of the United States.
4) Major transfers to the US state governments of authority and administration of many if not most powers specifically mandated to the US federal government by the US Constitution.
5) Blocking ingress to the United States of persons of foreign Moslems other than those whose presence here could be guaranteed not to foment or carry out acts of terrorism in this country.
6) Political and military cooperation with Russia for purposes of destroying the Sun’a Moslem Arab Daesh terror gangs in the Middle East and elsewhere, but without commitment of largescale US military ground forces.
7) Sound domestic policies for medical care, protection of the US Social Security system, protection of the rights of American citizens to keep and carry weapons for purposes of self-protection, hunting, and target shooting sports, improved maintenance and rebuilding of the US domestic transportation systems, protection of natural resources in cooperation with state and local governments.
8) Major restructuring of the US Internal Revenue Service, its system of taxing rates, elimination of a host of most tax loop-holes, and a serious effort to begin reducing the US national debt, whih is now growing to beyond $20 trillion.
Regarding Mrs Clinton as a candidate: The Federal Bureau of Investigation is taking testimony, with immunity from prosecution, in connection with eliciting evidentiary information about her having deployed in her home an email system in which thousands of secrecy-classified messages were illegally sent to and from her private computer. I understand this involves a Federal grand jury whose decisions could lead to a forced indictment of Mrs Clinton, which would force a termination of her candidacy for the presidency of the United States. Which would mean an election contest between Trump and Bernie Sanders.
Will there be many more “flip-flops” of policies in regard to government at all levels? You can count on that as part of the very nature of administration of large-scale human activities, and especially governance.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Now that Trump has explicitly admitted the obvious – that his immigration policy actually consists of recruiting foreign workers to replace lazy stupid Americans – one can only assume that the reaction from his followers will be “tough shit”.
On a more positive note, it was reassuring to learn from the horse’s mouth that the prospective Republican presidential nominee has a large reproductive organ.
Trump’s supporters would feel embarrassed today if they were sufficiently self-aware to be capable of experiencing shame.
TRUMP MORE FLIP FLOPS Maybe he is a con and a fraud?
TRUMP’S FLIP FLOPS
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/analysis-trump-s-flip-flops-exposed-rivals-still-vow-back-n531616
@ Bear Klein:
BK, I already wasted about an hour reading Nate Silver and checking him out.
You pick your information sources, and I’ll pick mine.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ bernard ross:
BR, Republicans around Travis County TX, which is where the state capital, Austin, is located, are already lining up to get rid of Robert Morrow. Nobody knew much about him until he started mouthing off about Jews.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ ArnoldHarris:
Number One hands down forecaster. Check your facts!! He has been 100% correct in his forecasts so far. Check out the site it is very educational!
By the way they use many of the polls found in REal Clear Politics but they give different weight to various pollsters (those who have found to better historically get a higher weight) plus near term polls count for more. So they do a polls plus and come with a forecast.
If interested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/
@ Bear Klein:
Nate Silver, the 538.com would-be political guru, has a consistent history of under-estimating Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination. So I don’t trust him or his cited polling information. My sources are the those reported by RealClearPolitics, the Reuters Rolling presidential nomination polls, and others which measure public opinion rather than trying with subtle narratives to shape that opinion.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
To test my theory that Trumpzoids are zoned out to the max, I hope the American Mussolini shows up at tonight’s debate with a guitar and his own version of the Johnny Cash standard:
“I’ll bomb everywhere, man
I’ll bomb everywhere, man
Crossed the deserts bare, man
I’ve breathed the mountain air, man
Travel, I’ve had my share, man
I’ll bomb everywhere
I’ll bomb
Reno
Chicago
Fargo
Minnesota
Buffalo
Toronto
Winslow
Sarasota
Wichita
Tulsa
Ottawa
Oklahoma
Tampa
Panama
Mattua
LaPaloma
Bangor
Baltimore
Salvador
Amarillo
Tocapillo
Pocotello
Amperdillo
I’m a Killer
I’ll bomb everywhere, man…”
Won’t change a vote.
Not a single one.
Exactly. If an optical deconstruction of the Zapruder film proved conclusively that Trump was the shadowy figure in the grassy knoll, his supporters would insist it verifies he is a real catalyst for change.
@ ArnoldHarris:Ohio is neck and neck with Kasich.
538.com has Kasich favored 41 to 39%.
Trump is overall clearly in the lead if he looses Ohio and another winner take all state though he may not get 1237 delegates, which for the people trying to stop him is their strategy.
If he wins on now through the 15th he will be unstoppable. Rubio looks like he will loose Florida. If he does he is toast. Cruz has no more natural states.
Bear Klein Said:
same as with Obama, always on a technicality, never on the actual issue. Thus, the actual issue has still never been adjudicated, it has only been avoided.
BK, in regard to all of the above.
Most of he vast crowds of angry Americans whom Trump has brought into his growing movement are uninterested in politics as usual. Significantly, they are not at all likely to switch their allegiance to any other candidate.
But most likely, there will be no need for that. Trump is the odds-on favorite to win most of the coming state primaries, including and especially Florida, Michigan, and Ohio. If Rubio loses the vote in his home state of Florida, then he is not likely to win any state primary election anywhere else.
As for Kasich, he had been hoping for wins in Ohio and Michigan, and already has announced that if Trump beats him in Ohio, he will drop out of the presidential campaign. But none of those contingencies assure that Cruz will pick up voters who would have voted for Rubio or Kasich. Kasich could well announce his support for Trump, as did Christie.
As for Dr Carson, he is more or less out of the presidential campaign, although he may not quit until the Republican convention in the summer. He and Trump have been on friendly terms since the campaign in Iowa. He too could throw his support to Trump.
That leaves Cruz and Trump. I always have thought Cruz is a smarter and tougher political fighter than Rubio. Strange as it may sound now in early March, it is entirely possible that he too could join forces with Trump, once he determines that he cannot win the nomination other than by creating yet an additional wedge that would break up the Republican Party.
Why might he support Trump and not Rubio? Because it must be plain to him that Trump’s numbers are much greater than Rubio could ever overcome. I understand that if he cannot win a presidential election — which I think is self-evident — then he is interested in a lifetime appointment to the United States Supreme Court. Trump is much more likely than Rubio to be in position to make such a deal with him, and I am certain that Cruz understands that even now, following Super Tuesday.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Judge Dismisses Case Against Ted Cruz Birther
Cruz stays on the ballot.
On Tuesday, an Illinois judge dismissed a case that would have kept Senator Ted Cruz off the ballot in Illinois.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-just-barely-on-track-to-win-the-gop-nomination/
@ ArnoldHarris:I agree with there is plenty of time. Also this one poll nationally and the process is state by state. I just thought it was a bit interesting.
The large turn out for GOP primaries because of Trump in great part is a plus. Small turnout of Hillary and DEM votes is a positive for GOP also. I also do not believe Black Americans will turn out the same numbers for Hillary as Obama and some who are interested in job protect from illegal immigrants might vote Trump. No matter what Trump says though he is losing the Latino vote big!
Trump and the GOP need to unify to win. If there is a huge split Trump will not win.
He is learning fast as now he has an outline of healthcare plan just in time for the next debate. He got killed on this in the last debate.
I wonder how Clinton’s number shall fare after she is indicted or properly politically filleted by Trump. She is tough meat and will surely require marinade-ing. I’ll pass. No appetite for Burkah worshippers.
Bernie Sanders has done the Democrats a disservice by debating Clinton with ‘kid gloves’. I guess it will have to wait until Trump. Sanders is a disgrace, in more ways than one and is probably going to be Clinton’s VP choice, so Clinton has not debated anyone yet, except for the mutant genius, with the plastic face and nothing to say, how did he get invited again….hmmmm, was it
O’Mally…or was it O’ Reilly, or Grumpy O’ Bear, if you know.
@ Bear Klein:
Eight months between now and the first Tuesday in November.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker