By Norman Bailey, WORLD TRIBUNE
The U.S. and Europe — the traditional pillars of Israeli foreign diplomatic and economic relations — are crumbling.
Since Israel’s independence, its most important economic and financial partners have been in Europe and the U.S. In the past few years, however, this situation has changed dramatically.
On the plus side, Israel’s position in the Middle East has improved, despite the chaos that has overtaken the region since the so-called “Arab Spring” of 2011. Not only is Israel militarily stronger, but due to the threats from Iran and Islamic State, Israel’s relations with its Sunni Arab neighbors have undergone a dramatic transformation, as those countries realize that Israel can be an important asset. Thus far this rapprochement has been largely behind the scenes, but no less marked because of that.
The recently signed energy alliance among Israel, Cyprus and Greece, made possible by the discovery and development of natural gas reserves, cooperation with Russia and the possibility of reestablishing friendly relations with Turkey, have contributed to this regional improvement.
With reference to South Asia and the Far East, especially India, China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, Israel has greatly improved its economic and financial relations, as well as developed important areas of cooperation in agriculture, high-tech and education.
All this has made it possible for Israel to maintain a good record of economic growth and development, despite political instability, terrorism, wars with Hamas in Gaza, and social conflicts. Most remarkably, this has been achieved despite the decline of Israel’s traditional partners. The European situation is bad enough, with economic stagnation, immigration problems, terrorism and rampant anti-Semitism.
But most worrying of all is the current situation in what has been by far Israel’s most important partner, the U.S. The chaotic ;and bizarre political situation, an outgoing administration openly pro-Islamic and anti-Israel, economic stagnation to the point of inspiring talk of another recession without a real intervening recovery, studies demonstrating that the real rate of unemployment is three times the published rate, the growth of the BDS movement, particularly in universities and academic associations – all of this is bad enough, although so far it has not affected the extremely close and productive defense cooperation with the U.S. armed forces.
But the lack of any substantial economic growth since 2008, coupled with ever-increasing disparities of wealth and income, and the effects of technological innovation on the situation of much of the former middle class, has led to what can only be termed a toxic mix of rage and fear on the part of a significant portion of the American people. Some estimate thirty to forty percent, which explains the extreme alienation from the political, social and economic elites of the country and has resulted in the political phenomena of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.
Most serious of all, however, is the fiscal situation emphasized by the just-released report of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a respected and entirely independent Congressional think-tank. This report demonstrates that if current trends are not reversed drastically, both the annual deficits and the total debt of the country will continue to grow to proportions which will result in the country being faced with a choice between defaulting on the debt or inflating it away. The figures are unquestionable and it is very doubtful whether any administration taking over the reins of government in January 2017 will have the ability to enforce the measures of austerity and the reforms of the entitlement systems which will be required to avoid such an outcome.
The traditional pillars of Israeli foreign diplomatic and economic relations are crumbling and will most likely continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Policy should continue to be adjusted accordingly.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, D.C., and a researcher at the Center for National Security Studies, University of Haifa. This column was also published by Globes, the Israeli business daily.
Russia, China and India may play a major role in the ME. At least for India and China antisemitism is not an issue and they may impose pragmatism in the whole area. The Western powers have never been serious about solving the Pal-IL conflict.
@ babushka:
@ BethesdaDog:
I see no sign of hostility directed toward Israel and generated by any of the Republican candidates for the Presidency of the United States in the 2016 national election cycle here. I remind that you really do not have to show signs of rampant paranoia in order to be considered a useful member of the Jewish nation. In any case, Israel has been an independent state for 68 years. The time has come to choose an appropriate Jewish nationalist government there and build new international alliances. Unless you seriously want to be treated like a spoiled child whose baby sitter is counting the hours when she can go home to her own bed.
You can plainly forget about a “US President Cruz”. The latest poll in South Carolina, following yesterday night’s debate, predicts Trump will win 42% of the South Carolina Republican Party primary election next Saturday. This is to be compared with only 20% for Cruz, 15% for Rubio, 9% for Kasich, 6% for Bush, and 6% for Carson. Remember how closely the leading polls predicted Trump’s overwhelming election ictory in New Hampshire early last week. But, of course, there is nothing to stop you from dreaming of anybody but Trump.
If you imagine Trump to be merely a clown, then I think you to know little about American politics or the iron determination of so many of us to break the grip of those who have controlled the backroom machinery of control of both the present major political parties.
Trump is the only Republican candidate who is in the process of attracting a major segment of the Democratic Party voting base, namely, the increasingly angry white working class. Without those working class families, no Republican can win a presidential election. So it will be Trump or Hillary Clinton. Think hard about that.
Most people here, including me as a hard-core rightwing Jew, who served the Rav Meir Kahane and who studied Zionism in the Jerusalem home of Dr Israel Eldad, one of the leaders of the most feared Jewish terrorist gang of the War of Independence, regard this as an American election, for the prime purpose of serving this country and its future. Various writers on this blogsite whine endlessly that Israel is not treated as an independent state by the US government or by whatever remains of the various European civilization. You cannot simultaneously be dependent and independent.
So think and act accordingly. Israel needs expanded national power, which means expanded national territory, which must and shall be taken from the Arabs. Nobody will hold your hands as that process develops. And why should they? You need allies and not just admirers.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
Absolutely correct. I fear for the future of the U.S. Young people today are naive, self-absorbed, delusional and led astray by their academic influences. They are poorly parented, having overprotective indulgent baby-boomer (or the next generation) parents, among whom broken families, lack of good values through religious conviction, single parents seem almost the norm. The defense budget will be shrunken if we continue to elect the Democrats. America will be a second rate world power, despite its huge size and abundant intellectual(scientific and technological) resources.
This is a very sad, and alarming, situation. Don’t be surprised if Bernie Sanders becomes president. The electoral college favors any Democratic candidate. We’re now done to the clown, the far out religious zealot, and the robo-Senator. I happen to like all of them, especially the last two. I don’t think the American people will elect any of them.
It could be worse than Obama.
If Israel lucks out and Cruz is elected president, his time in office should be viewed as a precious opportunity for Israel to gain self-sufficiency while free from American hostility. Given America’s changing demography, it is just a matter of time before the United States elects someone who makes Obama seem like a Zionist.
Two thousand years of antisemitism must be paid for!
Overall, the rise of the East (Asia) will be good for Israel, since they are not infected with the psychotic Nazi Jew-hatred of that filthy sewer called Europe. If my experience with Asian immigrants in NJ is any indication, then India, rather than China, should be the focus of Israel’s attention.
Europe deserves all the evil that falls upon it. Hopefully, they will be in full fledged civil war mode in a few years that drives those scum to their destruction.