by Daniel Pipes
http://www.danielpipes.org/
U.N. Security Council Resolution 2249, passed unanimously on Nov. 20, sums up the consensus that the Islamic State (aka ISIS, ISIL Daesh), poses a mortal danger to civilization by calling it an “unprecedented threat to international peace and security.” There’s also a widespread sense that ISIS will be around for a long time; for example, Barack Obama has predicted that the fight against it will be “a long-term campaign.” Permit me to disagree strenuously on both counts.
On the first: ISIS is not exactly the equivalent of Nazi Germany. It’s a little bug that the powers could quash at will if they put their minds to it. It survives only because no one really takes it seriously enough to fight with ground troops, the only gauge of an intention to prevail.
On the second: Between its alienation of its subject population and its gratuitous and unrestrained violence toward foreign countries, ISIS has made enemies of nearly everyone. Recent days alone have seen attacks on three powerful states: Turkey (the bombing in Ankara), Russia (the airliner over Sinai), and France (the attacks in Paris). This is not a path for survival. Friendless and despised, its every success shortens its life.
Contrary to other analysts, I foresee that ISIS will disappear without warning and as abruptly as it arose. This could follow on some combination of internal revolt, internecine feuds, economic collapse, and external attack.
And when that happy day comes, we can all focus on the real “unprecedented threat to international peace and security,” namely nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran’s apocalyptic leadership. (December 5, 2015)
I agree, but for different reasons: I see IS as the plan B that the GCC came up with after obama was exposed at Benghazi and backed off entering the war in Syria as planned on the chem attacks. IS is the entity which got the sunnis all their land gains and is what makes them have a shred of negotiating power with the russkies and Iran.
They will disappear because they will no longer be necessary. Their foreign members will morph into north africa, Iran, lebanon or any other convenient theatre. Their local members will melt into “acceptable opposition groups” when a political deal emerges. All the sunni groups are funded from the same sources.
Who will choose those groups and direct their outcomes?
whether saudi, qatar, uae….. its all the same funders with the same goals…. only their hired cannon fodder are in different named groups but conveniently end up accomplishing their handlers goals even if they dont know it.
@ babushka:
I agree. Jihad is a religious precept in Islam and Islam cannot survive in stasis – it must grow and expand its reach by force.
The only way jihad will no longer terrify us is when Islam has changed or disappeared.
As long as Islam is with us, Islamic terrorism will remain a fact of life in this world.
Daniel Pipes overlooks the fact ISIS has seized territory in Libya and in eastern Afghanistan.
In fact, its successfully spread its rule to places far from the Middle East.
Air bombings are not going to destroy it and even if it disappears it will sooner than later be replaced by something far worse.
Nature abhors a vacuum and Muslim jihadist movements of various stripes are here to stay.
Pipes is indulging in the delusion that the world would be made safer if ISIS’ shadow ceased to threaten the world.
Regardless of its incarnation, the brutality intrinsic to Islam will not disappear. The departure of ISIS will coincide with the arrival of another Muslim terrorist group because Islamic market forces contain a perpetual supply/demand imbalance – there is always a generous surplus of Islamo malice and not enough terrorist groups to express it all.
ISIS is just a symptom. Islam is the disease. The conflict will continue as long as supremacist Muslims teach their children that infidels must subordinated and dissent must be eradicated.
I e-mailed Daniel a few hours ago with the query as to why the USA should await achieving the demise of the Islamic State before addressing Iran’s Nukes.
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/12/congress_must_sue_to_block_the_illegal_iraniannuke_pactasap.html
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/262003-the-house-must-sue-to-block-illegal-iranian-nuke-pact
These are articles #14 and #15; two more are awaiting publication decisions…and #18 [“chai”] is being formulated.
Why doesn’t Pipes give credence to the notion of the creation of ISIS by the US and Arab countries? We know that Libyan arms were being transferred to Syria by US agencies. We know that the US response to ISIS has been weak. We know that Russia’s first priority is not ISIS’ elimination, but Assad’s protection. We know Turkey has been profiting from the oil from ISIS-held wells. We may further presume that it is US arms from GCC countries that are being supplied to ISIS without loud protestations from the US.
What we have here is a conspiracy to keep the pot boiling in the Middle East with an unlimited number of deaths and displacements. We, the American people, have not been informed about this approach to pacifying the Middle East because we would disapprove of a Machiavellian scheme that takes people’s lives as a matter of policy.
Furthermore, the Muslim refugees from their home countries that are under duress provide a rationalization for bringing Muslims to America to dilute American traditional values in order to prepare us for the accession of Socialism. “Never let a crisis go to waste” has been supplemented by “Never let a crisis we can create go to waste.”