Iran won’t agree to a solution which requires them to lose their Syrian proxy

By Ted Belman

I listened to the debate in the UK Parliament today on whether the UK should join the coalition bombing ISIS in Syria. If you have the time, I highly recommend it to you. At one point, PM Cameron said we have to fight the ideology but didn’t expand.

He said we can’t wait for an agreement to emerge between all the players on what to do with Syria to end the war.. But he did suggest that what Syria needs is a new government representing all the people and that this wasn’t possible with Assad at the head of it.

Since the Alawites constiute only 20% of the population, it would mean that the sunnis would be in the majority. This would mean the end of the Iranian influence and Syrian support for Hezbollah. The sunnis in Syria would look to diminish the influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

I can’t see Iran agreeing to such a solution as it will mean they have lost their influence over Syria and Lebanon particularly when Russia and China are backing them. Russia on the other hand may only be interested in maintaining their port and airfield there. Or perhaps they are invested in Iranian hegemony with which they are in partnership

I can see no other viable solution than a saw-off. Syria must break into at least two parts, 1. Alawite Syria around Damascus and extending to the Mediterranean and 2. Sunni Syria over the rest. It would be great if the Kurds also got a piece of it in northern Syria where they are in control but Turkey would be totally against this. Turkey is concerned that an independent Kurdistan will embolden the Kurds in Turkey to seek succession.

Once this is agreed in principle the parties would negotiate borders. Alawite Syria with their Shiite patron Iran will want to have access to Lebanon so they can continue to supply Hezbollah and have a relationship with it. Perhaps Lebanon will also have to be divided between the Hezbollah and the rest. Hezbollah Syria would join Alawite Syria perhaps and the rest of Lebanon would join Sunni Syria or not as they wish.

Even so ISIS would have to be defeated so that a more moderate government could emerge in the territory they control in both Syria and Iraq. Thus Iraq also breaks up with Iraq Kurdistan joining Syria Kurdistan.

As hard as this is to achieve, I see getting Iran to cede their influence in Syria as an ever greater obstacle.