Britain wants to quit Europe

Shock new poll shows EU ‘no’ camp ahead for the first time as Cameron prepares to face down Tory rebels

By SIMON WALTERS and GLEN OWEN FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY

A majority of British people would vote to leave the European Union in the wake of the migrant crisis engulfing the continent, a shock new Mail on Sunday poll has found.
If a referendum were to be held tomorrow on whether to remain a member of the EU, 51 per cent of British people would vote ‘No’.

It follows a string of polls over recent years which have given comfortable leads to the pro-European camp. Significantly, it is the first measure of public opinion since the Government changed the wording of the referendum question, lending weight to claims that the new phrasing boosts the chances of victory for the ‘Out’ campaign.

The astonishing exchange is the latest in a series of bombshell disclosures in a new book, Cameron At 10, by Anthony Seldon and Peter Snowdon, which is being serialised in The Mail on Sunday.

The Survation poll for this newspaper suggests that despite the wave of sympathy for Syrian refugees following the publication of harrowing pictures of three-year-old Aylan Kurdi, who drowned when his family tried to reach Greece from Turkey, British voters are opposed to opening the door to large numbers of refugees.

The survey indicates that the outcome of the referendum, which could take place as early as next year, could be hugely affected by the migrant crisis.

In contrast to today’s 51-49 majority for quitting the EU, a Survation poll in July showed a 54-46 margin in favour of staying in.
The ‘in’ camp has been consistently ahead in ten polls since May. In 2000, at the height of pro-European Tony Blair’s premiership, one survey showed support for staying in the EU at 62 per cent, with only 38 in favour of pulling out.

Furthermore, of those who told today’s poll they would currently vote to stay in, 22 per cent say they could change their mind if the migrant problem gets worse. That would give the ‘out’ camp a substantial majority.

Revelation: Anthony Seldon’s book reveals David Cameron’s clash with Angela Merkel
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Revelation: Anthony Seldon’s book reveals David Cameron’s clash with Angela Merkel
The Government is expected to announce plans in the next few days to accept several thousand Syrian refugees. But the poll shows the public thinks that numbers should be strictly limited. Nearly three in ten say the UK should accept no refugees at all, while nearly half think we should take 1,000 or fewer.

Only one in four favours taking 10,000 or more – the number urged by Labour leadership contender Yvette Cooper. Her proposal for every town to accept ten families, making 10,000 nationwide, is rejected by a margin of 42 per cent to 34.

Musician and campaigner Sir Bob Geldof has offered to take four Syrian families into his own home. But most people are less keen on the idea. Just 16 per cent said they would be ‘happy’ if a Syrian refugee family moved in next door, while 34 per cent would be ‘unhappy.’ The rest were neutral.

The Prime Minister will take comfort from support for his handling of the issue so far. He beats Merkel by a clear two-to-one margin.

And nearly two out of three say he is right to refuse to sign up to Merkel’s plan to divide up the migrants among all EU countries, with the larger and richer countries taking the most.
Only one in five say Cameron is wrong. Overall, 38 per cent think the Prime Minister has responded well to the migrant crisis, against 29 per cent who disapprove.

The poll also reflects concern that letting more refugees in could make things worse not better.
Nearly six out of ten say it would encourage more people to come to the UK. And there is little appetite for British military intervention against Islamic State to solve the crisis. Nearly half of those questioned oppose such action, against a third who are in favour.

The referendum question has been changed from a straight ‘Yes/No’ vote on whether Britain should stay to ‘Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?’ which is seen as more neutral since voting ‘no’ is seen as intrinsically ‘less attractive’ than voting ‘yes’.