After bitter Congress campaign, weakened Democrats will press for Israel compensation as their bid to retake the White House falters.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s go-for-broke onslaught in Congress against the Iran nuclear deal has been described as a lose-lose situation that would leave Israel worse off, no matter what happens. One of the most oft-asked questions in recent weeks in Jerusalem and Washington, therefore, is this: “What is he thinking?” According to several sources who are privy to Netanyahu’s most recent discussions with American interlocutors, and based on what they have heard and how they interpret the prime minister’s words, the answer is this:
Netanyahu is under no illusion about the ultimate outcome of the campaign. He accepts the prognosis that there won’t be enough Democratic votes in Congress to override a presidential veto. He is getting used to the idea that the Iran nuclear deal, which he has described as a “stunning mistake,” is already a fait accompli.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu has refused to engage President Obama or the administration in talks about what the media describes as security “compensation” for the Iran deal. Obama has said that Netanyahu believes that this would signal acceptance of the Iran accord and would weaken the resolve of its potential opponents in Congress. Obama told Jewish leaders that Netanyahu is wasting precious time in which Israel’s defense capabilities against Iran and Hezbollah could have been upgraded.
Analysts maintain that Netanyahu would be able to secure higher rewards for Israel now, when his implied acquiescence to a deal is valuable to the Obama administration, rather than later, when the deal is either done or undone and Netanyahu’s attitude is far less important.
Netanyahu sees things differently. He believes that passage of the Iran accord by virtue of a Democratic bloc that supports the president will strengthen his hand, not weaken it. According to his view, after the dust settles in Congress, Democrats will be desperate to mend fences with Jewish voters and donors in advance of the 2016 elections and will be pressing the administration to mollify Netanyahu, who will continue to wax indignant for as long as possible. His leverage against an administration that has gotten its way will be far greater than it is against a president who is pulling out all stops to achieve victory, he believes.
Netanyahu also sees fringe benefits in his strategy, according to people who have heard him. He believes that the fight over the Iran deal will weaken the Democrats not only with Jews but also with the American public overall. Win or lose in Congress, Americans view the agreement with Tehran’s ayatollahs as an accord with terrorists if not a deal with the devil. For those who aren’t convinced, Netanyahu will gladly provide both proof and argumentation.
This could be Netanyahu’s contribution to a Republican victory in November 2016. He would then gain a grateful GOP President who may not scuttle the deal overnight, as he or she now promises, but would certainly adopt a tougher attitude on its implementation, Netanyahu believes.
From Netanyahu’s point of view, this could be a win-win rather than a lose-lose situation: he would take credit for extracting the best possible security compensation for Israel’s defense. He would weaken Democrats and in effect punish them for supporting Obama and his terrible deal, and could see a pro-Israel Republican administration taking power to boot. In addition, he would confound all of his critics, detractors and naysayers in Israel and America who have accused him of making the wrong decisions at every turn.
Of course, skeptics might think that Netanyahu is being too clever by half. That he is ignoring the effects of lingering resentments in the White House and pent up anger among Democrats, especially moderate ones, who have been caught between a rock and a hard place in recent weeks. Netanyahu is also overlooking the long lasting damage to the American Jewish community, which is now splitting between pro and anti-deal factions, between those who see anti-Semitic motives in the administration’s battle for its policy and others who are outraged by the accusations of Jew-hatred leveled against the U.S. President. And that it is reckless of Netanyahu to wreak all this havoc on Israel-US relations and on American Jews on a campaign that was doomed from the outset.
And then there is the issue of Netanyahu banking on a Republican victory in 2016, a subject on which he’s already on record as erring badly, you will recall, the last time around. Netanyahu has surrounded himself with likeminded conservatives to the extent that he is blind to the rest of America, one source told me. He is increasingly out of touch with minorities, millennials and liberals, Jewish and otherwise, the source added, which is why it’s so easy for him to discount their influence and to write them off, with potentially disastrous results.
Bear Klein Said:
I’m sure they have it, but will they use it first or will they wait for Iran’s nuke before using it?
@ oldjerry:Israel if it has it, could use an electro magnetic pulse bomb and be completed justified. Preferably non-nuclear if possible.
@ babushka:
Why do they do this? Why do they do that?
Why waste your time and effort asking rhetorical questions for which you already know the indisputably correct answers?
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
The United States nuked Japan in WW2 to spare an estimated million American lives which would be lost in an invasion of Japan. Why is not within reason that Israel nuke Iran in order to spare a far greater number of Israeli lives?
Israel was founded as a refuge because the world hates Jews, so why does Israeli leadership spend so much time trying to avoid alienating those Jew haters? It is as though Israelis are invested in a fantasy that if they can just avoid being offensive, the Gentiles will accept them. It is a very dangerous delusion because it inhibits Israel from defending itself.
@ Bert:
@ babushka:
Both of you are correct in your assumptions and policy advice.
1) Even if the Senate Republicans could muster enough Democratic Party votes to render senatorial rejection of Obama’s Iran sell-out veto proof, Israel should move steadily out from under what they had thought to be the protective blanket of the USA.
2) Israel can never have defensible borders without controlling all lands west of the Jordan, the Dead Sea, and the Arava valley. That’s means defensible in the short term. In the long term, Israel will be compelled to retake control of the Sinai peninsula at least up to the Mitla Pass, and southern Lebanon up to the Litani River gorge in the north.
3) As for ayatollist Iran and that government’s explicate policy of eradicating the Jewish state, there is only one practicable and possible response. I assume that destroying the enemy nuclear enrichment facilities is no longer possible without exercising military control over the various sites, which by now must be buried deep and which also must be assumed to be the most protected military assets in the country. Therefore, Israel should concentrate on helping whatever Iranian opposition can be found, for purposes of eliminating that regime in a single night. That means neutralization of the top leadership of the ayatollahs, the Republican Guard, and the Basiji street gang enforcers. That could be accomplished, and if successfully undertaken, Israel would make it possible for a far friendlier government to take power in Teheran.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
How can any sane Jew or gentile think that a person who sat in the pew of a flaming anti-Semitic and American hating preacher, FOR TWENTY YEARS, not be a flaming anti-Semite and America hater himself?
Wrong wrong wrong. The Iran deal proves that Israel must become LESS dependent upon America, not more.
As if Obama would not hate Jews has Netanyahu remained neutral. Romney would have been pro-Israel, or at least considerably less anti-Israel. Bibi made the right decision to support Old Mitt. There was nothing to lose by opposing the Jew hater.
I wish Israel would use this nuke deal to justify a need for increased security in the form of a total takeover of Judea and Samaria. This would also involve the expulsion of all Arabs who are hostile to Israel and an all out building program in all parts of Israel plus full Israeli access to the Temple Mount. This would also require a powerful Israeli PR campaign to blame Obama for any resulting unrest. We need to recognize that Obama is in total thug mode and is intent on placing Israel in a non-survivable position. And to hell with the leftist Jewish traitors in the U.S.