The Egyptian-Saudi Divide

By Zvi Bar’el, HAARETZ

[..]
Yet the fleet of ships that inaugurated the new canal – and even the public appearance of Egypt’s only female captain – can’t raise the anchors that are weighing Sissi down. The war against Islamic terror in both Sinai and Cairo is far from won. Even as the inauguration ceremony took place, the Egyptian air force was bombing targets near El-Arish, killing at least 12 terrorists, military sources said. Meanwhile, Islamic State’s Sinai affiliate, Wilayat Sinai (formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis), keeps killing Egyptian soldiers and attacking civilian targets.

This war is eating deep into Egypt’s budget, which relies heavily on grants and loans from Saudi Arabia. Egypt is getting military and technological assistance from the United States and Britain, and its recently renewed strategic dialogue with Washington will likely produce more. But it’s Egyptians who are being killed.

British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon, who attended the ceremony, noted the huge sums British companies have invested in Egypt over the last five years – about $24 billion – as well as the sophisticated bomb-detection technology his government has given Cairo. But his praise for Sissi focused primarily on the expectation that Egypt will continue to be part of the coalition against Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) in Iraq and Syria, which concerns Britain far more than the war on terror inside Egypt does.

Cairo has no problem with the war against Islamic State. But it does have a problem with Riyadh’s position in this war. Egypt suspects that Saudi Arabia is more interested in pushing Iran out of the Middle East than in eradicating ISIS. Riyadh’s desire to establish a “Sunni axis” to oppose the “Shi’ite axis” led by Iran is liable to come at the expense of Egypt’s policies.

This Sunni axis already includes Turkey, which Egypt views as a hostile state. Last month’s “historic” meeting between Khaled Meshal, head of Hamas’ political bureau, and Saudi King Salman – which is meant to ensure that Hamas severs ties with Iran and joins the Arab-Sunni axis instead – also didn’t go down well with Sissi.

Above all, Riyadh’s willingness to support Syrian militias affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood has caused teeth-grinding in Cairo. And while Egypt joined the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in Yemen, it isn’t exactly thrilled with the Saudis’ support for a Yemenite government that relies on support from Yemen’s branch of the Muslim Brotherhood at a time when Sissi himself is waging uncompromising war against his own branch of it.

Granted, Riyadh is making great efforts to show unreserved support for Egypt. A week ago, it signed a cooperation agreement with Cairo. At the canal dedication, it was represented by the king’s own son, who is also responsible for the kingdom’s foreign policy. The Saudi-owned paper Asharq Al-Awsat published a long article on the eve of the ceremony detailing the history of relations between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the frequent meetings between the countries’ senior officials, including those between Salman and Sissi. And this week, the Saudi ambassador met with senior Egyptian journalists to assure them nothing had changed in his country’s policies toward Egypt.

But it seems as if these demonstrative efforts merely underscore the fact that a grayish-black cat has crossed the two countries’ paths. The sourness in bilateral relations stems not only from Saudi Arabia’s sudden turn toward the Muslim Brotherhood, but, primarily, from the fact that Egypt no longer holds any levers with which to influence diplomatic moves in the Middle East.

For instance, Washington made Riyadh, not Cairo, the focus of its campaign to sell the nuclear deal with Iran overseas. Egypt isn’t considered a key country in the war against Islamic State, and the Arab coalition against the group relies primarily on the Gulf states. In the absence of an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Egypt has lost the most important diplomatic lever it once had. And should the process resume, it’s Riyadh, not Cairo, that will play the lead role.

Although Washington’s attitude has changed enough that it agreed to resume providing Egypt with sophisticated weaponry – primarily to keep it from making arms deals with Russia – it continues to view Egypt as being on probation with regard to human rights. Washington, which doesn’t dare demand that Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the United Arab Emirates enact democratic reforms, doesn’t hesitate to poke sharpened spurs into Egypt’s loins to promote democratization there.

The pomp of the canal’s inauguration, with its spectacular fireworks, will fade in another few days. But the real explosions will continue. Egypt does have a new canal, whose importance shouldn’t be underestimated. But by 2025, the United Nations predicts, it will suffer from a severe shortage of drinking water for its population. A canal full of ships won’t help it then.