Following weeks of unedifying horse trading, threats and extortions, compounded by personal malice, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally cobbled together an untenable coalition with only a single-seat majority — which any single Knesset member in the coalition could bring down. To survive, it must be broadened.
Most Israelis are disappointed that a national unity government could not be formed at a time when we are faced with daunting political and diplomatic challenges, in particular further major tensions with the Obama administration.
Yet, there is still considerable speculation that, despite public protestations to the contrary, both Netanyahu and Isaac Herzog would prefer to create a unity government and that at a later stage, the coalition will be expanded to incorporate the Zionist Union or as a last resort, even Yesh Atid.
Excoriating Netanyahu for capitulating to unreasonable demands from minority parties that run counter to the will of the people is fine for populist armchair critics. But the responsibility rests with our dysfunctional political system and those voters who supported the small parties. Were Herzog in Netanyahu’s shoes, he would have behaved in exactly the same manner.
To form a government, Netanyahu was forced to forfeit the best available candidates for ministerial positions and even appoint utterly unsuitable ministers. In addition, he was obliged to submit to demands of small one-dimensional parties — adopting policies that Likud and the vast majority of Israelis strongly oppose.
Ironically, despite restricting Netanyahu to a hairline majority, the calculated decision of Avigdor Lieberman to undermine Netanyahu and join the opposition will delight most Israelis. Lieberman was the antithesis of what Israel required for the role of foreign minister. Cynically claiming to be motivated by ideological principles was pathetic for Lieberman, who is notorious for his political zigzagging. Besides, aside from having a penchant for coarse statements that may appeal to his constituency but alienate the rest of world — such as his call for disloyal Arab Israelis to be “beheaded” and the public condemnation of his government during the Gaza war — Lieberman was probably Israel’s least successful foreign minister.
Naftali Bennett and Habayit Hayehudi were treated shabbily by Netanyahu, who capitulated to Shas at their expense. Nevertheless, had he agreed to Bennett’s demand to become foreign minister, this also would have been disastrous. Bennett is articulate and charismatic but he is repeatedly on record vowing that he would never contemplate a Palestinian state and favoring annexation of the territories, which would have provided Obama with all the ammunition required to orchestrate a massive global anti-Israel campaign.
That he initially spurned the offer of the Education Ministry was regrettable. Education should be the paramount concern of Habayit Hayehudi. Bennett has a vision of Israel and Jewish values beyond the religious arena and understands how to reintroduce Jewish values into the secular education stream without religious coercion. The courage he displayed in his previous political forays suggests that that he could be an outstanding education minister and achieve major reforms in the system.
The last-minute appointment of Ayelet Shaked to the Justice Ministry was Bennett’s payback for Habayit Hayehudi’s shabby treatment. Although she has no legal background, Shaked is extremely competent and, aside from creating tensions by seeking to reduce the excessive power of the High Court, she will hopefully curtail the control over the rabbinate sought by Shas.
There is considerable disgust with the negative moral implications of appointing Shas leader Aryeh Deri, a convicted felon, as a minister. Fortunately, public outrage and petitions precluded him from obtaining the Interior Ministry which he coveted and had controlled when he was indicted. But it still shames us that such a person could be appointed as religious services minister as well as economy minister.
In terms of actual policy, the principal rage against Netanyahu is in relation to issues of state and religion. The retraction of the decision to criminalize and jail haredim refusing to partake in the draft by 2017 was commendable, as this type of coercion was an obstacle to progress and, if implemented, would merely have transformed our jails into yeshivot and radicalized haredi opposition to the draft.
However, Netanyahu has capitulated to other haredi demands and effectively totally displaced the Zionist Habayit Hayehudi in the religious and rabbinical arena with the haredim. Setting aside the pros and cons of the massive increase in funding to haredi institutions, the abrogation of financial penalties to yeshivot not fulfilling quotas for the draft will only encourage indolence.
The decision that state-sponsored haredi educational institutions are no longer required to incorporate a core curriculum — a crucial element enabling graduates from yeshivot to obtain employment — is also highly retrograde.
Another disastrous move, which will intensify tensions with Diaspora Jews and further alienate all other than haredi Israelis, is the rescission of the legislation enabling Israelis to choose rabbis for marriage, divorce and conversion. This will deny moderate Orthodox rabbinical groups like Tzohar the ability to operate in these areas and prevent municipal chief rabbis from establishing their own conversion courts. These basic religious services will be exclusively controlled by the Chief Rabbinate, which has been hijacked by the most stringent haredi elements.
This centralization of control by haredim is unprecedented and imposes the most stringent interpretations in all fields of Jewish law on the whole nation. In the long term, despite an extraordinary revival of Jewish values especially in Israel, this will bring the rabbinate and religious life into disrepute.
There is also some concern about the economy. It is highly commendable that incoming Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon has plans to introduce reform to benefit the weaker sectors — especially in the housing arena. However, there is a huge difference between reforming the mobile phone industry — at which he was undeniably successful — and revolutionizing a national economy. At the moment, Israel enjoys one of the most stable and enviable economies in the world but this could change overnight with the implementation of populist policies. Netanyahu will need to work closely alongside him to ensure that overdue internal reforms do not play havoc with the overall strong economy.
With such a razor-thin majority, another major disadvantage of the government is that innovation will be severely limited and constructive policies can be vetoed not merely by the absence of the unanimous support of all the small parties but by any individual government Knesset member. As in the past, an absence of cabinet responsibility and Netanyahu’s inability to impose discipline should his ministers act as rulers of independent fiefdoms and maintain their practice of publicly criticizing their own government, will likely continue.
In the coming months we will face enormous pressures. Not merely from the Europeans but from the U.S. administration. Once Obama is no longer directing all his efforts towards consummating an agreement with Iran, effectively transforming it into a threshold nuclear power, he is likely to revert to Israel. All indicators suggest that he intends to implement his threat that if Israel fails to toe his line, the U.S. would no longer employ its veto at the United Nations.
His clearly stated policy is that Israel’s borders should be based on the (indefensible) 1949 armistice lines with mutual swaps (which could never be achieved with the intransigent Palestinians), division of Jerusalem, and an indefinite freeze of all settlement construction which, in this context, includes settlement blocs and Jewish east Jerusalem.
Needless to say, Israel will not be able to make such concessions and will need to display a united front in order to ensure that American public opinion and the U.S. Congress will inhibit negative Obama initiatives. Much will depend on the opposition. The Zionist Union has acted commendably since the election in relation to the Iranian issue. Hopefully, it will continue to avoid demagoguery and populism and endorse government policies affecting our national interest.
Indeed, most Israelis hope that even if it leads to the defection of a few of its far left extremist back benchers, the Zionist Union will ultimately become partners in a national unity government that should urgently bring about highly overdue electoral reforms to prevent a repetition of the current intolerable situation.
Isi Leibler may be contacted at ileibler@leibler.com
Marching on. The new government takes office in a few days. Let the barking from the sidelines cause no distraction.
What we again observe is that no sabotage trickery will be by passed by the perennial infiltrators serving the 18 families and the 300. They see that their secretly selected courtiers, commanders and other specialists are in danger to being booted out. And slowly they will.
No matter the elections results the creepy creatures shout that they represent “gggggggrrrooobbb ha’am”.
That is why they are our again in the opposition… 🙂
The Livni-Pbama-Hertzog-NIF aggregate was trounced in the election process and have been again set aside in the aftermath.
@ bernard ross:
There is not a peace deal the Arabs would accept that even Lapid, Lieberman and probably the Labor would accept. You bought into Eldars BS. He is trying to stay relevant from the far left. Do not lose any sleep over this less than zero chance deal.
@ Bear Klein:
although the article you poseted argued agains a deal it said this:
If true, then only 8 seats are needed of the remaining 59 (nic BY) seats to sign on a deal.
ArnoldHarris Said:
it is absurd to ignore facts. we know C has a majority of jews and they are in the blocks to be kept. But what about E1, and new settlements. Nothing in 2 terms.
ArnoldHarris Said:
I believe there is little to support this assertion outside Jerusalem and the major blocks expansion. did Bennett say anything about the important E1 last 2 terms? Did you here him rant for new settlements in YS? Facts not feelings only count.
ArnoldHarris Said:
I agree, neither the others, but I expect no quarrel as there will be no settlement building outside Jerusalem or the major blocks and they will agree on that. I dont think bennett will push for more; if he didn’t push for E1 then its moot.
ArnoldHarris Said:
Its supposed to be a RW gov which is supposed to look completely different than a left wing gov. If it is enough for you that BB stalls but makes no advancement for settlement in YS then you will be satisfied. Any leftist would be happy with such a RW gov who holds it steady for when they again take over the reins to cntinue where they left off.
ArnoldHarris Said:
a tss may not happen for a long time but I expect more land given and more autonomy and years later if it works they might be given sovereignty.
what other reason is there for a RW gov NOT settling in YS?
ArnoldHarris Said:
I think you mistake facts for feelings again… what did bush say and do?????
ArnoldHarris Said:
I dont agree. I think that eldar, who I always disagree with has pointed out a real situation in detail. You actually did not speak to his details but went with your feelings.
ArnoldHarris Said:
the “right wing gov” of BB has only stalled it and it has in two terms done nothing to advance any new settlements in YS. everying is in Jerusalem and the major blocks that “everyone knows will be kept”. If the best a supposed RW gov can do is stall then what happens when the left comes in? Yo avoid the facts of history of his 2 terms and instead invest the future with your own wishes.
Other than BY which of the other parties have spoke of annexation and hold settling of YS to be of importance, Shas, UTJ, Kulanu, Likud?
@ Bear Klein:
true, but it also has a valid point in that there is a small majority of a small majority for Jews in YS and that when the minority in the coalitin are added to the minority in the knesset it is the other side who has a majority. In such a case the absence of an agreed platform in the coalition means that the minority of the coalition can vote with the minorityof the knesset and thus consitute on that issue a majority. the core of what the letist eldar says makes sense to me, I see little movement or advance for any settlement that is not in Jerusalem or th emajor blocks to be kept. I expect that Benett will confine his focus to those same two places. and as eldar says if BB acutally negotiates a deal he would likely have a rubber stamp majority in the knessett. Therefore the absence of a coalition statement may forbode the opposite. BB can get the left to suppost him on any movement towards the left wrt YS and negotiations. My own view is that we have already seen movement towards a negotiated end based on not breaching the status quo wrt any more land for Jews in YS outside the major blocks.
Keep in mind that any agreement that BB endorses will carry great weight with the public. Remember this is a “right wing gov” so we cannot expect better than this and a good number of them couldn’t care less about YS.
@ bernard ross:
I think this is wishful nonsense on the part of an Arab news chain with a mixed Israeli and Arab readership. Actually, the “two-state solution” dies a little more with each passing month and with the birth of each new Jewish infant in Jewish homes all across the annexed parts of Jerusalem and Area C.
Irrespective of slow-downs in Jewish housing starts, based on the twists and turns of Netanyahu’s furtive policies in recent years, there already are more than 300,000 Jews in the annexed lands around Jerusalem and somewhere near 400,000 in Area C. With Bennett now emerged as a major power-holder for Shomron and Yehuda housing and development planning, Jewish development in those areas will steadily grow, with new roads and other infrastructure to support many additional Jewish communities.
Furthermore, I doubt that having come this far and having made so many compromises just to form this coalition, Netanyahu wants to face new elections. Which means he will not be in position to put any screws on Likud’s coalition partners; which means Kachlon running the Israeli economy, Bennett running the civil institutions of Shomron and Yehuda, and Shas and UTJ running Jewish religious affairs.
As for Knesset votes, even though Liberman and his party chose to sit out this coalition, I could not imagine any of those six Knesset members making any move to break up Jewish control over the settled parts of Shomron and Yehuda.
In any case, it takes two to negotiate even a two-state solution that will never emerge. And no such thing can emerge, because no Arab gang, even wearing UNO-approved trappings of an authentic independent government, will ever approve of Israel in control of Jerusalem, and Israel in actual control of most of the land they imagine someone will compel Israel to disgorge just for their benefit. If any Republican wins next year’s US presidential election, and likely to keep their control over both houses of Congress, there won’t be much more talk about two-state solutions.
Could there be a Republican president sworn in 20 months from now? Hillary Clinton looks and sounds more untrustworthy, more dishonest, more haggard, and with increasing resemblance to Lois Lerner of the Internal Revenue Service with each passing month, and there’s increasing murmurs among Democrats of finding another potential candidate.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-new-hawkish-coalition-what-hope-for-the-peace-process/
@ bernard ross:
The title of the article is deceiving
(the eldar’s are leftists but an interesting analysis)
@ Bear Klein
BK, I never have been the kind of thinker or writer who requires unanimity of others with my opinions in order to engage and hold my respect. I agree that foreign relations with Russia always has built-in problems and strict limitations. Nonetheless, a working and friendly relationship with them could reap dividends for Israel if Russia’s national power re-expands in the eastern Mediterranean and the southern Caucasus as I think it will.
You are on the right track, however, regarding improving Israel’s relations with China and India.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ ArnoldHarris:
Arnold, with all due respect we will have to completely disagree on the point of russia
@ Bear Klein:
I do not care who Russia supports. The only allies the Jewish state is likely to have, in any case, will be enemies of Israel’s enemy. That is exactly the way things work in the Middle East. Which means secret support from Saudi Arabia and Eqypt, but no support whatsoever from any western democracy.
Regarding Russia, I am interested in the potentialities of Israeli-Russian cooperation which might bear important fruit at some point in time. Russia supports nobody and nothing in any relationship that does not serve the interests of the Russian state. That includes their support of the pravoslavsi (Orthodox Christian) countries in the Balkans. They do that partially for sentimentality, but more so on behalf of Russia’s permanent imperial interests in that part of Europe.
The way the Russians and the Russian state operates is precisely the way I want the Jews and the Jewish state to operate. National interests only, an authoritarian but stable government somewhat like that of China, little or no sentimentalism, and ruthlessness in carrying out nationally-significant policies.
Yes, they are intending to supply ground to air missiles to Iran. But that, I think, is to deter the USA from attacking their Iranian clients. But I do not think Israel or even the USA has the capability of destroying their now-scattered and deeply-buried nuclear enrichment facilities. Nor do I think the USA has the will to even try that. If they had stronger will and focused purposefulness, they would have destroyed North Korea’s nuclear enrichment facilities years ago.
In fact, the think the only tactic that would work in the Iranian situation would be to eliminate all the leading personalities of the ayatollist regime sufficiently to cause a coup. And I think a lot of Iranians would like that to happen. But I am certain that Israelis of this generation are insufficiently ruthless to arrange and help carry out such an action. Which, to me, spells national weakness.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ ArnoldHarris:
Russia is the supporter of our mortal enemies. Ignoring this for whatever personal reason is an intellectual blindness for a person who has a love of Israel and the Jewish people. Israel works to keep Russia not to hostile to it and does business with Russia when pragmatic.
Israel is expanding ties quickly with India and China and should try to become less dependent on the USA and Europe.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
SHL, my opinion coincides with yours, regarding expansion of the present ruling coalition in Jerusalem. To my mind, the sole issue of immediate overriding importance is to fill Area C with Jews as rapidly and as homogeneously as feasible, then either put that 2/3 of Shomron and Yehuda under civil government control or annex it outright to the State of Israel. Then negotiate separate local autonomy agreements with the hamulas of the Arab-populated cities that make up Area A, cut off all Israeli recognition of the Palestine “Authority” and start administering Area B as has been done with Area C since he Oslo Accords were put in place.
That is more or less what must be done. And it will be difficult enough to get it down with Netanyahu calling most of the shots. The Zionist right should keep all the leftists out of the government. The other two issues of importance beyond Jewish redemption of Shomron and Yehuda is to neutralize ayatollist Iran and to reduce Israel’s dependence on the USA by increasing Israel’s ties to Russia, China, and India. And none of that can happen either, unless Israel is under control of a government that knows exactly what its policy should be and is not afraid to use ruthless tactics to achieve those goals.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
MAPAM-MAPAINIKIM do not give up. Routinely defeated the trash always vies for insertion into the winning camp to “save” whoever is elected.
PM Netanyahu must not allow the Obama-Hertzog-Livni-NIF ensemble to trap him again as that aggregate in the original form did with Mr Begin and with every Jewish governments since.
Incorporating Lieberman is far better even if not pleasant, than seeing Livni again selling out the shop.
We reject out of hand the saboteurs manuvers.