Israel deployed ground forces in Gaza Thursday night both because Hamas’s terror tunnels into Israel have become an unacceptable threat, and because it had to break the deadlock that had developed between it and Hamas.
Until the ground invasion, Israel and Hamas were in a holding pattern. Hamas would not accept a ceasefire deal because Egypt’s offers provided the Iranian sponsored, Muslim Brotherhood terror army with no discernible achievements. And absent such achievements, Hamas prefers to keep fighting. Israel for its part is unwilling to make any concessions to Hamas in exchange for its cessation of its criminal terror war that targets innocent civilians in Israel as a matter of course.
As Hamas sees things, it has three ways of winning.
First, if Israel had agreed to ceasefire terms that left Hamas better off than it was when it started its newest round of indiscriminate missile attacks against Israeli civilian targets, then it could have declared victory.
Hamas’s terms for a ceasefire included, among other things, an open border with Egypt, egress to the sea, open access to the border zone with Israel, an airport, a sea port, and the release of terrorists from Israeli prisons. Obviously, if Israel agreed to even a few of these terms, its agreement would have constituted a strategic victory for Hamas.
The second way for Hamas to win is if it able to accuse Israel of killing a large number of Palestinians at one time In that case, Hamas can expect for the US to join with the EU and the UN in forcing Israel to accept ceasefire terms that require it to make significant concessions to the Palestinians in Gaza as well as in Judea and Samaria.
This is what happened in Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006. During the fighting, Hezbollah alleged that Israel killed a great number of Lebanese civilians in Kfar Kana. Those allegations caused then US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to effectively end US support for Israel’s war effort. Rice quickly coerced Israel into accepting ceasefire terms that paved the way for Hezbollah’s takeover of the Lebanese government.
If Hamas is able to create a similar situation in Gaza, it will likely achieve the same sort of strategic victory over Israel.
Finally, if Hamas is able to produce a picture of victory that can burnish its reputation as the leader of the jihad against the Jews throughout the Islamic world, then it will be able to declare victory. Operations such as Hamas’s repeated attempts to launch mass casualty attacks in Israeli communities along the border with Gaza by infiltrating Israeli territory through its underground tunnel networks, have been geared towards achieving such an end.
Since Hamas initiated the current round of warfare against Israel, Israelis have been split in their assessments of how best to win the war. Still now, with ground forces deployed in Gaza, the dispute over the proper goal of the operation remains significant.
Although everyone supports the troops, politicians on the Left, led, most openly by Labor party leader Isaac Herzog say that Israel should limit its goals to the maximum extent and seek a ceasefire because “there is no military solution” to the conflict with Hamas.
Israel’s best bet, they say, is to do everything it can to end the Hamas missile strikes as quickly as possible through negotiations. At the same time, Herzog argues, since there is only a diplomatic solution to the Palestinian conflict with Israel, Israel needs to send negotiators to Ramallah to beg Palestinian Authority President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas to sign a peace deal with the Jewish state.
There are several basic problems with the Left’s position.
First, Hamas and its partners in Gaza from Islamic Jihad, al Qaeda affiliated jihadist militia and Fatah have no interest whatsoever in peaceful coexistence with Israel. They exist to fight Israel. This means that the only way that Israel can get them to stop fighting is by using its military force to convince them that it is not in their interest to continue shooting.
In other words, the only “solution” to Hamas’s aggression is a military solution.
Then there is the bizarre notion that a deal with Fatah is somehow the silver bullet that will end the military threat to Israel from Hamas-controlled Gaza.
A deal between Israel and Fatah in Judea and Samaria would have no effect whatsoever on the situation on the ground in Gaza. Given Hamas’s absolute rejection of peace with Israel, and widespread support for Israel’s destruction throughout Palestinian society, a peace deal between Israel and Fatah in Judea and Samaria would in all likelihood increase Hamas’s prestige among Palestinians and throughout the Muslim world. In other words a peace deal with Fatah would enhance Hamas’s prestige and power and ultimately bring about an expansion of its military capabilities.
Beyond that, Abbas has ruled the PA for the past decade. Throughout this period, he consistently demonstrated through deed and word that he will never, ever sign a peace treaty with Israel. Abbas has twice rejected offers of peace and statehood from Israel. Just three months ago he rejected another offer from US President Barack Obama. During the same period, he has signed three peace deals with Hamas. The most recent one is now in force, on the ground.
Since Hamas initiated its newest round of criminal projectile assaults on Israel, Abbas has acted as a full partner in the war. He has represented Hamas internationally. He has negotiated on its behalf – and continues to do so in Cairo.
Abbas has slandered Israel in the most obscene terms. His Fatah group has actively participated in the missile offensive, on the ground in Gaza. It has also proclaimed its absolute unity of purpose with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the war against Israel in daily official pronouncements.
Given all of this, the notion that Israel can pin a diplomatic strategy for ending Hamas’s war against it on Fatah is not merely ridiculous. It is inexcusably irresponsible for would-be national leaders to maintain faith with it. The only purpose such behavior serves is to reinforce the Americans and Europeans in their delusional faith that the chimerical two-state solution is a recipe for utopian peace rather than war, bloodshed and radicalization.
On the other hand, the Right, led most outspokenly by Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman insists that the role of IDF ground forces in Gaza should be to reconquer the area with the aim of destroying Hamas’s capacity to continue shooting rockets and missiles. Only such a ground-based operation, they claim will eliminate the threat of Hamas’s projectiles.
There are several problems with this position.
First, it makes assumptions about Hamas that are not necessarily correct.
It is far from clear that the only way to destroy Hamas and end its capacity to harm Israel is to reconquer Gaza.
The main reason that Hamas began the current war is because the terror group is in distress.
The Egyptians have cut off the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood’s financial and military supply lines through the Sinai. Hamas of the summer of 2014 is not Hezbollah from the summer of 2006. Hezbollah had open supply lines from Iran through Syria and Turkey. Hamas is locked in between Israel and Egypt.
Moreover, Hamas is challenged on the ground in Gaza by the same jihadist groups that now fight with it against Israel. If Hamas cannot produce a victory in this round of fighting then its friends from al Qaeda affiliates and from Islamic Jihad will renew their challenge to its authority. Add to the mix the response of a public angry at Hamas for forcing it to serve as human shields for missiles and terror masters who were unable to bring home the bacon so to speak by fighting, and there is a reasonable chance that Hamas will face a full-blown insurrection once a ceasefire with Israel goes into effect.
The only way for Hamas to avert this fate is by being able to point to significant gains from the fighting that will neutralize at least some of its opponents and rivals.
In other words, Israel doesn’t have to reconquer Gaza to destroy Hamas. We just have to humiliate Hamas and knock out capabilities like the tunnel networks that immediately threaten us. And then let the Gazans fight it out.
Finally, a full-scale ground invasion is a risky proposition. There is no assurance of success. Israel deployed ground forces in south Lebanon in 2006. But due to incompetent national and military leadership, the forces achieved little from a strategic perspective while absorbing painful losses.
Israel faces an acute operational challenge in Gaza. The nine year absence of IDF forces and Israeli civilians on the ground has wrecked Israel’s intelligence gathering capabilities and so limited the IDF’s operational effectiveness. If in 2004 Israel was able to defeat Hamas through targeted killing of its commanders, repeating that success today without good human intelligence assets on the ground is a much more difficult prospect.
This is why we are already beginning to see diminishing results from the air campaign. Without human assets on the ground, the IDF either cannot locate or cannot get to the remaining high value targets.
Unless Israel is able to change this situation fairly rapidly, it will not be able to sufficiently diminish Hamas’s capabilities to convince Hamas’s leadership that they are better off ending the current fight without achieving anything significant than maintaining it until they do.
This is why the government was finally compelled to order the ground campaign.
Ground forces are required to develop the information Israel needs to kill a large enough number of Hamas leaders and destroy the tunnel complexes and a large enough quantity of missiles and launchers to convince Hamas’s terror masters to cry, “Uncle.”
While the ground operations continue, Israeli negotiators should be avidly agreeing to every ceasefire offer that denies Hamas any achievements. The IDF must continue to exercise an abundance of caution to prevent Hamas from luring our forces into a situation where we will be accused of massacring Palestinians.
None of this is easy or simple. No result is guaranteed. But in fighting Hamas today, Israel finds itself in a better position than it has faced in past fights with Hamas. For the first time, we face an enemy with a limited shelf life. Without supply lines from Egypt, Hamas cannot fight forever. Its allies at the UN can feed its forces and protect Hamas from an insurrection from a starving population. But the UN cannot rearm Hamas. It cannot reopen the smuggling tunnels from Egypt to enable materiel, money and trainers to enter Gaza.
Hamas is desperate for anything it can call a victory. By denying it one on the one hand, while taking action to force its leaders to prefer organizational humiliation to personal destruction on the other, Israel can win a decisive victory.
@ yamit82:
Have you heard of a Aaron David Millar of the Wilson Center ?
yamit82 Said:
You would not BELIEVE what the Devil has made me do!!!!!!!!!! Not that it wasn’t fun !!!!!!!!!! Darlin
yamit82 Said:
You and TX are devilish. Obama and Kerry are treacherous pusillanimous polecats.
@ honeybee:
We love you too even though we agree with Flip Wilson.
@ honeybee:
US Calls for Israel to ‘Do More’ for Palestinian Civilians
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/183173
Did I mention in the past that I hope this bastard ends up dangling from a rope?
🙁
yamit82 Said:
Honeybee and Dagmar loves ya baby. In spite of the fact you say we spend to much money : http://youtu.be/0SLifea3NHQ
honeybee Said:
NOT!!!! KERRY OR OBAMA. 😛
They are Devilish!!
yamit82 Said:
I believe Sissi will be the stronger, Obama and Kerry are treacherous.
@ yamit82:
@ bernard ross:
A Texan: http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Texas/2014/07/20/Texan-Serving-in-Israeli-Defense-Force-Killed-in-Gaza-War
@ bernard ross:
Picky !!!!!!!!!!
yamit82 Said:
“of B Ross or “to” B Ross 🙂
@ yamit82:
Good to see you still kicking, darlin read this : http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/john-kerry-caught-on-mic-bashing-israels-anti-hamas-op-in-gaza/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=john-kerry-caught-on-mic-bashing-israels-anti-hamas-op-in-gaza
Who loves ya, BABY
2 comments of B Ross in moderation
bernard ross Said:
Nothing ODD!!! Hamas was broke ancd couldn’t make payroll for 40,000 employees including their militias. They sought unity deal with Abbs so he would be responsible for covering Hama expenses in Gaza. Abbas balked at pying and closed all the ATM’s to Hamas only those connected to Fatah in Gaza got paid. Egypt closed the border destroyed the smuggling tunnels and Israel was sort of stingy in filling the shortfall. The shooting at Israel was aimed more at Egypt and the PA/Abbas than Israel. They want MONEY and relevance from Israel Abbas or any other entity that will keep them in power and relevant.
Not GCC.
Morsi and the MB supported Hamas and got them a great deal against Israel in 2012.
America still hasn’t returned to the relationship with Sissi as they had with Morsi. Sissi besides buying some $3Billion an weapons deal with Moscow just purchased $1.8 billion 2 warships from France. Signed long term Gas deal with Israel.
He is not getting any help from Qatar only the Saudis and mainly because they help to protect the Saudis from the MB.
There has emerged an axis of Egypt the Saudis and Jordan, Qatar and the rest of the Gulf Staates are not included in this troika especially Qatar, who is aligned with Hated Turkey.
There have been rather large street demonstrations in GCC.
Verbal support for Abbas and the PA and no support from anyone in the Arab world for Hamas except Qatar and Islamic Turkey. Nody loves the Palis either including Abbas.
Seems you don’t have a clues as to who is Hamas.
You are NUTS if you think the Hamas shooters of Rockets are that skilled and their dumb rockets are not dumb but smart and accurate? They are not that good at shooting and their rockets are that dumb….
Gaza off shore gas fields are part of Israels,same source for both sides divided by an artificial border line. There isn’t that much gas to warrant all of your speculating and theorizing. I think there is less than a $billion dollares of recover
Feiglin: End Misplaced Pity That Endangers Troops
MK Feiglin: End the ‘Misplaced Pity’ That Endangers Our Soldiers.
In a press conference Sunday evening, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz discussed how IDF soldiers warned residents of the Shejaiya neighborhood in Gaza to evacuate the area, providing Hamas with advance information on where the IDF would strike.
As a result, Hamas terrorists had time to prepare to “greet” soldiers, preparing traps, ambushes, and attacks – essentially sacrificing Israeli soldiets for the safety of Gaza civilians. That, said Likud MK Moshe Feiglin, is unacceptable; Israel should not be sacrificing its soldiers for the safety of Gaza residents, supporters of Hamas who voted to put the terror group in control of Gaza.
“The blood of ours sons is precious and we must not endanger it for nothing,” said Feiglin. “We must force the enemy to surrender. We have to stop supplying them with electricity, food, and all other supplies until they surrender and disarm.
“We hope and pray that the injured soldiers who sacrificed themselves will get better,” said Feiglin. “These are the times when we must demand that the illogical pity we have for our enemies is put to an end,” he added.
Thirteen IDF soldiers have been killed since Saturday night, the IDF said. The process of identifying the bodies is still ongoing. Golani Brigade, armor and engineering corps forces were met with effective close range guerrilla actions in Shejaiya, Gaza. The dead are all from the Golani Brigade. The Brigade’s commander, Col. Rasan Alian, was also lightly injured.
In order to avoid risking the lives of Gaza Arabs, the IDF has been risking the lives of IDF soldiers, and that has to stop, said MK Feiglin
bernard ross Said:
BS /no named source for this item. Ted pulled it out of an Arabic blog.
Do not forget it’s your same GCC who have supported The ISIS/Daish and Qatar is the money behind Hamas. Hamas is the Mortal enemy of Sisi and Sissi them. Sissi hates the Turks and didn’t invite them to his inauguration. For Egypt the axis of evil is Turkey,Qatar and MB/Hamas. The Saudis are backing Sissi. Kuwait is getting close to Iran and all are threatened internaly and externally by ISIS-Daish.
I see no unity between any of the groups but a lot of disunity hatreds and dysfunction.
The Saudis, Americans and Qataries have created a Golom ISIS and now are working hard to limit their effects and threats against themselves.
Seems like only the Americans will in the end benefit from the breakup of the ME.
Kerryy’s coming visit will be enlightening becuse Sissi is not about to open his border with Hamas (one of the major demands of Hamas) that Israel has no influence or control over. Don’t think he will back down from his cease fire proposal either. The Saudis are backing him and Israel will double cross him under pressure from Kerry and Obama.
yamit82 Said:
……..
HMMMMM????? Where did I hear this before?
bernard ross Said:
Like I said
yamit82 Said:
I defend the right of anyone to kill the Guardian editor
yamit82 Said:
You are in good company, Max said the same 2 years ago but my model has been reliable so far.
There is no reason for Egypt to be so cooperative with Israel and for the GCC arab press to be incredibly hands off. I beleive that BB is operating this war in tandem with Egypt and the GCC and this explains his handling of the civilian situation. They are leashing their press in his favor as long as he maintains certain parameters that allow them to maintain the visage. I think the plan is that abbas will be installed to gaza, in small steps(like the customs to start) and that the hamas will meld into the PLO and that the weapons situation will be worked out under the PA existing agreements. Note that BB has expressed he has no problem with Abbas taking over the customs. I think these agreements involve the US, GCC, Egypt, Jordan, PA and Israel. I think this is playing out to allow a “unity gov” under abbas with hamas becoming a political org. I think this is the plan and goal but like all plans “there is many a slip between cup and lip”. They will do it in a manner where hamas keeps “face”. Did you notice the 10 year truce, which coincides with the talk over the last 2 years of a 10 year peace plan. I think there will be no overt peace deal as the arab, and even Israeli street, will have problems. I think they will do things on the ground over time and get everyone used to the changes. the first is they will get gaza operating with the same “non belligerence” structure as the PA; there will be a defacto demilitarization; more land will be given to PA in bits; PA will get more autonomy in B, settlement in C will be continue to be curtailed.
As I originally said last year: the status quo with make up.
yamit82 Said:
Saudi is not pro MB they support sisi in his purge. I think saudi is pro sunni mercenaries who take their instructions, and an MB that is not independent they will work with as they do in the US. As for qatar, I have never bought the so-called saudi qatar split. They operate together in the GCC, they collaborated on getting sunni jihadis to libya and syria. i see it like a good cop bad cop BS story. Qatar maintains a relationship with the Mb and hamas but is slowly weaning hamas to the saudi line. Qatar historically has ties with israel and makes agreements with Israel, it brokered the pillar of defense cease-fire. I see it that qatar works with one set and saudi with another but saudi and qatar end with results beneficial to the GCC. I am interested in facts not rhetoric and press releases. There are a number of narratives out on the line that I do not buy and are unproven but spoken of in media. qatar maintains ties and influences over the MB and hamas on behalf of the GCC while pretending there is conflict.
yamit82 Said:
this is true but I believe their roles are different, I believe that Qatar operates for the sunni GCC whereas Turkey is operating fo rits own interests and spheres of influence while operating with the sunni GCC block in some ways but not in all. I think the current anti semitism of erdogan is less to do with gaza war than that it probably just got cut out of the negotiations(future gas deals). I will bet that qatar will remain a player in Gaza but not Turkey.
I think it is important to note that the Egyptian stance and the non aggressive arab press in the sunni GCC are not a coincidence. They are both easily explained under the understandings I have been talking about for almost 2 years. In fact, if you use my speculations as a basis most “mysterious” facts and seeming contradictions over the last couple of years are explained. So far the model has worked well in predicting outcomes.
bernard ross Said:
Israel is now expanding ground operations and throwing more units into Gaza.
I think you are losing it to unbridled fantasy as opposed to realism and facts.
Euphoric Hamas needs to hear that Israel will oust it from Gaza if necessary
This conflict finds Israel caught between warring parties in the Sunni Muslim world. If Israel wants to end it, the gameplan needs to change, and fast
honeybee Said:
She’s fine. Thanks.
@ Bear Klein:
😀 😀
yamit82 Said:
Shurnuff !!!!!!!!!!!!!
yamit82 Said:
How is Dagmar??????
@ yamit82: I was just watching Reshet 2 ( Channel 2) and some idiot said the state should have built them security rooms. In what the shack illegally plunked down?
’27,000 Turks wrote pro-Hitler tweets in a day’
Turkish website Zete Gazete reports that 27,000 Turks wrote 30,000 tweets praising Hitler on July 18.
Guardian editor defends Hamas’s right to kill Israelis, AGAIN.
“So Gazans are an occupied people and have the right to resist, including by armed force (though not to target civilians), while Israel is an occupying power that has an obligation to withdraw – not a right to defend territories it controls or is colonising by dint of military power.”
CNN SCUM!!!!
CNN reassigns reporter after ‘scum’ tweet
CNN pulls reporter Diana Magnay out of the Middle East after she referred to a group of Israelis who had allegedly threatened her while reporting on Gaza as “scum” in a tweet.
Magnay was reporting live on the air as a group watched the Israeli bombardment of Gaza around her. After the report was over, she wrote on Twitter: “Israelis on hill above Sderot cheer as bombs land on #gaza; threaten to ‘destroy our car if I say a word wrong.’ Scum.”
CNN says in a statement that Magnay was referring specifically to those who threatened her. CNN says the network and Magnay are sorry if anyone was offended, adding that the reporter has been reassigned to Moscow.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5clNNBJ2hU
Egyptian TV Hosts Slam Hamas Leaders: We Are Sick and Tired of You
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VtENBF_yjo
@ yamit82:
Correction… there were casualties (4) wounded Bedouin neighbor squatters, occupying Jewish Land illegally!!! 🙂
Maybe they will get the message and move….To Egypt.
Egypt says it won’t amend ceasefire proposal
Cairo does not intend to change the terms of its ceasefire offer to Israel and Hamas, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri says.
The Egyptian proposal, which Israel accepted but Hamas did not, states that both sides must halt all attacks and only then negotiate the terms of a longer lasting truce.
SOB are trying to kill me 🙁
11:50
Two rockets fall near Dimona, causing no damage
Two rockets fired from the Gaza Strip hit open fields near Dimona.
No damage or casualties are reported in the attack
Kill every Mother of them!!!!!
Hamas: Operatives exchanging fire with IDF troops ‘behind enemy lines’
.
“Operatives”?????? Interesting description by the JP 🙂
How to win in Gaza?
Keep shooting at Dimona!!!
11:04
Rocket alerts in Ashkelon, Dimona areas
@ bernard ross:
Qatar Turkey and the Saudis are the main supporters of the MB.
the Gulf Arab state of Qatar and with Turkey, both countries that backed Egypt’s ousted president Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood. Egypt accuses Hamas of supporting militant groups in the Sinai seeking to topple the Cairo government.
Egypt is cleaning house of the MB. Has jailed tens of thousands of them and over 600 so far were executed. Hamas is especially on the Egyptian shit list not only because they are an extension of the MB but because they forced release of hundreds of Hamas and MB prisoners during the Military coup against Morsi. Hamas supplied ansd supported Sinai Bedouin who killed soldiers and policemen in Cairo and Sinai, blew up gas pipelines many times. Hamas is considered enemies of Egypt and terrorists by Sissi. Qatar and Turkey are major supporters of MB and Hamas.
Egypt says Qatar, Turkey and Hamas hurt Gaza ceasefire bid
Turkey’s Erdogan compares Ayelet Shaked to Hitler
Speaking to his parliamentary group, Turkish PM says ties between the two states wouldn’t normalize if Israel continues ‘to kill innocent children,’ and strike Gaza.
Egypt’s foreign minister accused Qatar, Turkey and Hamas on Thursday of conspiring to undermine Cairo’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire between the Palestinian militant group and Israel in Gaza, Egypt’s state news agency reported. Egypt sees Hamas as a threat because it is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the army removed from power last year, straining ties with the Gulf Arab …
<a href=" Israel pulls diplomats from Turkey after missions attacked“>
Israel pulls diplomats from Turkey after missions attacked,
Israel cuts diplomatic presence in Turkey amid protests
Abbas asks France to lobby Hamas allies for truce
I wonder what are the “considerations and facts which cannot be revealed to the public”. I venture that the “facts” are the understandings between the arab league(GCC) regarding their agreement with the attack on Hamas and that the “considerations” is that he must do it in a way that they can keep their streets under control. Of course the western nations will agree with the arabs.
Yidvocate Said:
Exactly. Israel does not want a power vacuum in Gaza. It wants Hamas to refrain from attacking it in the future but at the same time it knows as evil as Hamas is, its a responsible actor. That is not the case with other jihadist elements in Gaza. In an ideal world, Israel would love to eliminate Hamas. But as history shows, extreme terrorists in the Middle East wind up being inevitably replaced by even more extreme terrorists. There are no angels there. That fact is what is determining what Israel can reasonably attain on the ground and what it cannot attain on the ground there.
@ XLucid:
Lucid indeed. Your plan is far saner than Caroline’s as although she may be absolutely correct in her assessment, it will be to little avail for Israel if Hamas ends up getting replaced by Islamic Jihad, or ISIS or Al Qaeda. The rockets will still come flying. Not tomorrow but surely as the night follows the day. Committing ground forces should for once and for all change this sick dynamic and that can only be achieved by boot on the ground in control of Gaza. She really should read her own book – The Israeli solution!
Isn’t this really the end of Palestinian Nationalism? What would Hamas be if not for Palestinian Nationalism and where would Palestinian Nationalism be without Hamas? The current narrative is “Demilitarize Hamas”, but it is the militarization of Palestinian Nationalism that put Hamas where it is now. Is Israel going to go in and “demilitarize Hamas” and leave the Palestinian Authority with the means to continue its terrorist offensive against Israel? The rockets into Israel didn’t start with the missiles of Hamas, it started with the Qassams of the PLO.
The current narrative also poses the Palestinians as being somehow different from Hamas. But Palestinian Nationalism is a fraud propped up by all kinds of interests all over the Muslim world from Turkey to Libya. Let us hope that Israel takes just a little more extra time in Gaza to rip the whole mess out by its roots once and for all. The time is ripe. Demilitarize all of Gaza, not just Hamas. The lies are running out of steam.
Only their houses have been targeted. I expect the top will be left alive and only the lower will be killed, especially anyone with connections to Iran. Meshaal said a while back that Qatar had demanded, and they accept, the unity deal. Perhaps this is their way to let their street blow off steam and tire of war prior to their melding into the PA. when it is over more will accept non belligernce with Israel, they already talk of the 10 year truce. I think the overall idea now is not an overt peace deal but rather steps over a 10 year period that defacto move to a final peace based on facts on the ground. Non beligerence is the first step. the second step is populations getting used to facts on the ground and not wanting to upset the positives of the status quo, which is already working in the PA. Political solutions will progress but not in an overall deal which will immediately precipitate trouble on both sides. Hence, small defacto steps covertly over 10 years is what I beleive has been agreed. During this time I expect drama for the street, lots of rhetoric and hellfire, but I will pay attention to facts on the ground.
Sisi, Abbas mull donors meet to rebuild Gaza
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/2014/07/17/Sisi-Abbas-mull-donors-meet-to-rebuild-Gaza.html
wasting no time getting in on the deals to come
EGYPT’S DRAFT TRUCE USHERS HAMAS’ RIVALS INTO GAZA. Puts Fatah forces in control of key border crossings – See more at: http://kleinonline.wnd.com/2014/07/18/egypts-draft-truce-ushers-hamas-rivals-into-gaza-puts-fatah-forces-in-control-of-key-border-crossings/#sthash.gBipcMTk.dpuf
I think this indicates the direction and goals of the current campaign. I expect that Abbas will slowly ascend to rule through small facts on the ground, starting with the borders and then with the old fatah employees re-assuming control. I believe this to be a done deal but the current scenario allows hamas to show a final battle before they leave the military realm and become a political org. and melded into the PA. The goal is a unity demilitarized gov like with the PA right now. I believe this has been the goal for gaza for a good while: the weakening, leashing, deposing of hamas by the GCC, US, Egypt and Israel in order to give gaza to abbas for a long-term peace deal and to remove Iranian hegemony for the GCC. I do not expect a long-term peace deal above the table but I do expect that facts on the ground over a period of 10 years will demonstrate what that deal will be.
Odd developments to be considered;
Hamas opening the rocket firing after the unity gov deal…
BB stalling on reprisals and utmost care to protect gazans..
Incredible manipulation of arab media and Egypt to refrain from criticizing israel while Israel conducts a clean war…
Incredible support of egypt against hamas…..(this is the clearest indicator of the GCC behind the scenes)
The incredible lack of chaos in the GCC arab world against Israel, as opposed to Turkey, who is left out of the dealings for gaza…….
The incredibly low casualties of Israel: I believe these occurred primarily not from iron dome but from aiming at empty spaces by hamas.
I will not be surprised to see a slow installation of abbas/PA over gaza. Israel has already shown agreement re the border posts which indicates a view that that the Abbas, Egypt, Jordan, Israel track is the track of the future.
Who is behind all the sunni players accepted by Israel: the GCC.
Who expects to be the player in the ME energy developments in the gaza area in the future, who will they make deals with, hamas or Israel and Abbas, who do they prefer as partners….?
who is behind the sunni jihadis in Iraq/syria….including Isis…….?
Who is making very little noise this time……?
Currently there are discusisions of energy sold to Jordan, to PA to Egypt, of using Egypts LNG facilites for shipment to asia, etc
I expect a demilitarizaton of hamas and a handing to abbas, however I expect it done with face saving devices for hamas.
“The IDF must continue to exercise an abundance of caution to prevent Hamas from luring our forces into a situation where we will be accused of massacring Palestinians.”
First of all, during more than a decade, Hamas has been conducting towards Israel the most serious crimes under international law.
Notwithstanding Hamas’ heinous and egregious crimes, Israel warns the civilians before the strikes by dropping thousands of leaflets in Arabic, warning them to avoid certain areas that may be targeted, and even calls and texts people living in buildings where a rocket is about to hit, and giving them time to evacuate.
Never before in the history of humankind, had a country a morality of such irreproachable character as Israel when it comes to protect the enemies’ civilians.
A contrario, the offenses committed by Hamas are no less than “genocide“, “crimes against humanity“, and “war crimes” within the meaning of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.
It is a prerogative to every state to use force to protect its citizens. In accordance with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, Israel is entitled to the right of self-defence in arm conflict, as stipulated therein:
Article 51: Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security […]
By signing a “reconciliation” agreement on May 2014, Fatah formed a unity government with Hamas thereby becoming responsible and liable for all its terrorist actions.
If Hamas does not care about its civilians and force them to serve as human shields, there is neither a moral nor a legal reason to expect more from Israel who already acts beyond its obligations and duties towards the enemy population.
Accusing Israel of “massacring” Palestinians would be not only a manipulation of truth and false propaganda, but also a defamation and false accusation. None but the Palestinian Authority should be held accountable for the same.
The first of foremost thing to do to win Gaza is to cut off electricity, gas and water, thereby forcing the population to reframe and reverse the situation and to fight a struggling battle against Hamas.