By Abraham H. Miller, AMERICAN THINKER
Critics of President Barack Obama’s Middle East policy should begin with a new set of premises: Obama is not stupid. No one believes Iran will dismantle its nuclear program.
Of course, the Iran agreement will not work. But that’s the idea. No one really expects it to work.
In politics, when you can’t control outcomes but you need to extricate yourself from the situation, you create charades, rituals, and symbolic victories totally absent of reality.
In the Cuban Missile Crisis, we did not go eyeball to eyeball with the Russians and they blinked. The Russians gave up Cuba, and we gave up Jupiter Bases in Greece and Turkey. Only in an American television series do the Russians blink.
Nixon and Kissinger brought you peace in Vietnam — by leaving hundreds of thousands of battle hardened North Vietnamese troops in South Vietnam who then did what they were expected to do. They continued fighting until the South Vietnamese government fell. What did you think they were going to do?
Did anyone really believe North Korea was going to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and bringing food to its starving people?
Obama after numerous stumbles, misadventures, and the puerile embrace of the Arab Spring finally understands the Middle East. We are less likely to create stable democracy there than in Germany after the Great War.
The only thing that can be done about the Middle East is what Nixon did in Vietnam — declare victory and leave. Obama is leaving the Middle East. He is engaged in as elaborate ritual as Nixon and Kissinger produced with the Paris Peace Talks. The sycophantic media is already calling the deal with Iran historic.
Of course, Iran is going to get nuclear weapons. Do you have any doubt that the people who lied about the nuclear facility at Fordo and concealed their weapons program will not build nuclear weapons?
America cannot stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. We can only slow it down. Time is on the side of the Iranians. This administration does not have the political will to stop Iran. The American people are tired of war.
Iranian nuclear weapons are a threat to Israel and the sheikdoms of the Gulf, but they are not a threat to America.
The entire Middle East is being written off. We have been involved in the Middle East like an ill-bred house guest who has stayed too long. It is time to pack our bags.
And Americans should cheer. Whether Obama has made this decision by design or by stumbling into it, for America, at this moment in history, it is the right decision. Pax Americana is ending. We no longer need the Middle East, and they no longer need us, except to continue to suck our blood and treasure.
There is one strategic reason for being in the Middle East: oil. But with major strikes in North Dakota, Texas, and now Australia, the Middle East is losing its importance. In any event, as Iran’s dismal economy shows, the producers of oil cannot run an economy without being able to sell oil. In business, buyers need sellers and sellers need buyers, and the way oil is coming online there is going to be a lot more oil in the market. We don’t need to meddle in the internal politics of the Middle East in order to have access to its energy.
Japan’s economic prosperity, achieved in the post-war years by selling consumer goods, more than rivaled the economic benefits its imperialistic military sought in World War II, without the barbarism, bloodshed, and nuclear devastation. Business itself presents options for economic cooperation far more meaningful than any form of imperialism, military or dependency.
The pundits are predicting chaos and bloodshed in a Middle East absent America, as if that was not already happening. American blood and treasure will not stop the Sunnis and Shi’ias from killing each other. We will not get the Muslims to love the Jews and the Christians. We cannot stop the grandiose designs of Islamic fundamentalism or the hegemonic designs of the new Ottomans. We cannot stop the devolution of Syria and Iraq. The Afghans know we are leaving and thumb their noses at us. And except for the pleasure of bashing Israel at the United Nations, not one Arab country cares about the Palestinians. Most will not give Palestinians citizenship. The Arab countries have their own problems. The Palestinians are barely a sideshow.
If you are worried about the Russians, do not be. I have always believed Russia needed a hundred Cubas. In the Middle East she will begin to find their equivalent.
There will be exacerbated chaos and greater impoverishment. Middle East refugees will flood Europe. The Europeans deserve each and every one of them.
Educated and professional classes in Europe will flee to the English-speaking world across the oceans. With some modest modifications in immigration law, the English-speaking world will inherit this talent. Europe, with its inability to reproduce itself and its discomfort in standing up for its own culture, is a failing society. Europe is dying. It is just that the formal obituary has not yet been written. Marseille, where French is a second language, is the future of Europe.
And Israel? Israel will benefit from America’s departure. Israel’s problem is that she does not have the industrial complex to produce the large weapons systems needed for her protection. But our military industrial complex will still need Israel as a market. And the quiet alliances shaping up between Israel and the Sunni sheikdoms are mutually beneficial exchanges of Israeli protection for material resources. With America gone, the Israelis and the Gulf sheikdoms will discover a marriage of convenience against an Iranian threat, one that is acceptable to America but not to the Gulf States and the Israelis. With America out of the picture, the people of the Middle East will be forced to think in creative terms to solve their own problems. These will no longer be our problems.
Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/11/the_iran_deal_and_the_future_of_the_middle_east.html#ixzz2lr0VNmVp
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Beware, in order to get together they may unite against Israel as a distraction from their current conflict. If Israel or the US do not take Iran down diplomatically or militarily they will have to accommodate with Iran.
TED, its still haywire; comment 22 in moderation. I appear to be flagged as a dangerous person 😛
yamit82 Said:
One of Israels greatest strength has been military advancement and security. This has contributed to a large export market and a respected reputation. However, because it is not PC there has been little analysis of the potentially enormous gains to be realized through “leveraging” these strengths. diplomacy that is not backed with military power is not sufficient. The EU rely’s on their money but this only gives them an avenue to escape through appeasement. Israel has the potential to militarily threaten, to develop pragmatic and ruthless alliances and even seizures. Israel should give consideration to possibilities outside of the box. right now, alliances with the GCC are being discussed and analyze but the same should be done regarding Iran. I am not saying to seek alliance with Iran but rather that a military power should consider all avenues to gain and power as the only true method for security. For example, models should be analyzed where Iran and Israel divide up the sunni empire for its resources. The US did this with the soviets and the soviets did this with Hitler. It was american power which secured its world status in security and economics. Possibilities abound and there is no reason for Israel to remain shackled by as the tail wagged by the US dog. In this respect I agree with Miller that this could be a real opportunity for Israel but Israel needs to think out of the box as it has with past successful endeavors. A more pragmatic and ruthless Israel would be more in tune with the non PC trends developing where military power trumps in world diplomacy(see russia, china, iran, to see the success of this model)
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEk2_OgQmYg&feature=player_detailpage
@ Yidvocate:
Thing is. We in Eretz Israel are directly threatened by Iranian nuclear bombs. In the other hand, it is plain and clear that the US present administration does not intend to stop that, (if it ever did), consequently it is incumbent upon us to destroy the threat against us. The US is fully entitled to attend to the Iranian threat to them, if they perceive any, as they see fit.
The later may not be misunderstood as meaning that we will acquiesce to the US administration interfering in our self defense rights.
Naturally we know that the present leadership in Israel is unfit to perform the task.
@ NormanF:
Obama above all is an ideologue and he wants to bring Israel down but needs to de-NUKE Israel first. He needs for Israel to sign on to the NPT which Israel has refused to ratify. Iran is the trade off their nukes for ours and if they use them against us then they will build more holocaust Museums and fund more University chairs on our newest catastrophe.
Report: London is mediating indirect secret talks between US and Hezbollah
Talks reportedly deal with fight against al-Qaida, regional stability and other Lebanese political issues. 🙂
The US and Hezbollah are in secret indirect talks managed by London dealing with the fight against Al-Qaida, regional stability and other Lebanese political issues.
Senior British diplomatic sources, quoted in a report in Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Rai on Wednesday, said British diplomats are holding discussions with leaders of the Lebanese organization and transferring the information to the Americans.
The discussions “are aimed at keeping tabs on the changes in the region and the world, and prepare for the upcoming return of Iran to the international community,” according to diplomatic sources in Washington.
Because the US, unlike the UK, recognizes both the political and military wings of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and refuses to distinguish between them, US officials cannot legally meet with any member of the party. But according to the sources, the US is willing to hear the views of the party and “warm up to a direct relationship in the future.”
Al-Rai noted that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani spoke to British Prime Minister David Cameron last week, and placed the talks with Iranian-backed Hezbollah in the context of the ongoing negotiations between the West and Tehran, which show Washington’s willingness for diplomacy with the Islamic Republic.
Relations between Britain and Iran deteriorated after Iranians stormed the British embassy in Tehran in November 2011. But in October, Britain and Iran decided to renew diplomatic relations, and Britain named a new chargé d’affaires to Iran.
I am an Isolationist.
http://vimeo.com/52352074
yamit82 Said:
America is turning back to isolationism. With the rise of the Rand Paulistinians in the GOP, that’s a good bet. Netanyahu is relying on a broken reed! America has no desire to contain Iran – to the contrary, its engaging it. This puts Israel at the bottom of America’s list and if Netanyahu thinks solving the Palestinian issue to Obama’s satisfaction will make Israel an important player in Washington again, he’s in for a rude awakening. The Jewish State is playing with a weak hand.
I tend to agree with Miller.
Fresno Zionism, in its most recent article, drives the point home. Scary.
@ Laura:
Iran already is the dominate influence or controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Fertile Crescent. They are aided by both the Russians and the Chinese. There are no vacuums with American withdrawal others will fill it and America will have little to no control what develops in the region and how it effects the USA. This is a major departure from American policy since the end of WW2.
comment to Bernard Ross in moderation???? First moderation of the day. 🙂
bernard ross Said:
I agree. Israel today is a powerhouse that does not leverage our strong assets and strengths. One might think that we are the same Israel as in 1948, 56, 67, 73, 93 and even 2000. We have problems but compared to everybody else they are not overwhelming. Judging from our leaders behavior one might think nothing has changed here.
When Israel was cutoff by the French embargo we stole the plans for the Mirage fighter, hired hundreds even thousands of American engineers and technical people and built the plane here. When the French refused to release patrol boats we had purchased from the French we stole them and sailed them to Israel. We had Chutzpa in those days because we were alone left to our own devices and we acted. Israel Aircraft has the technical ability and the industrial know-how and infrastructure to build any platform if there is a budget for them. Israel shipyards can with proper investment do the same. Dependency on America has killed our national initiatives and incentives. This carries over onto the national psychology that we need the West when we don’t at least not in the way it’s perceived here today.
@ mar55:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPDUUaVKR8o&feature=player_detailpage
This is different from the American Thinker’s ordinarily pro-Israel stance.
I agree with Yidvocate and Eric. This writer is a fool if he thinks we can voluntarily extricate ourselves from the Middle East and spare us any more wars. Iran has missiles based in Venezuela which can reach us. Our open borders are bringing in muslim terrorists. Obviously this guy is an isolationist. These people are equally as dangerous as Obama. I bet he supports Ron Paul.
And its not as if America is actually retreating, but rather is just shifting alliances.
NormanF Said:
this did not deter their meddling in self interest and preventing the jews from killing their enemy at every opportunity. it is one thing to leave but another to stab in the back. similar to the US leaving of viet nam. the US has a record that invites hostility: meddling then stabbing in the back.
my comment 6 is in moderation. Ted, please do something about the enormous number of moderations I have been receiving in the last couple of days. There is no material to moderate in this post.
but they are not leaving, they are still imposing their hegemony and blackmail through their deal with Iran and their threats to Israel.
naive, simplistic: then why is Iran developing long-range ballistic missiles with North Korea?
America will do to Israel what it did to Taiwan. Israel is of no interest to america except as a means to control oil and waterways. these imperatives will still exist as cheap ME oil will keep prices lower and this will not be acceptable to the frackers.
These alliances shaped up as part of a deal that Obama seems to have abandoned and reneged on. The GCC, in the absence of the US, are more likely to find accommodation with Iran than Israel. If BB gives away eretz Yisroel in the coming negotiations then the GCC will develop these relations but should not be depended upon as they will easily shift. Israel should form relations with other large military industrial complexes like China, Korea,even Russia. It needs to play a more flexible and mobile game with eggs in many baskets and shifting alliances. It must develop relations based on mutual interests. Also, it can have no success playing the role of appeaser. Israels successes stem from grand ideas implemented with chutzpah. Small thinkers like the current lot are like bookeepers who keep advising cost cutting until the business no longer exists. Israel needs strong leadership with a vision towards success based on independence not blowhards dependent on appeasing every hostle US, EU, UN action for a couple of million bucks.
My view is that its the end of the American Century.
America is tired of its hyperpower role and is retreating inwards.
The Middle East has so many problems that America cannot really fix them.
So the peoples of the region have to solve them by themselves. In the end both sides will learn to get along without the American shadow.
This as historic a turning point as the final British withdrawal west of Oman and Suez in 1971. Its truly the end of an era.
@ Mladen Andrijasevic:
Or on Benghazi or only any one or more of the several grounds laid out in Aaron Klein’s new book.
The problem is that there is no opposition in the U.S. No Republican leadership at all!
Congress should impeach Obama on Iran or be complicit in facilitating the next Holocaust
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2013/11/congress-should-impeach-obama-on-iran.html
He seems to be completely overlooking the fact that in trying to withdraw from the Middle East, it is actually more likely the USA will be drawn into a war, and not on its terms.
I guess the author has not heard of EMP bombs, nuclear bombs that can be fired from a freighter off the coast of the U.S. mainland. One of these bombs detonated many miles high above the U.S. can set the country back to the stone age.
Not a threat?