Quiet in the coalition, for now

By Mati Tuchfeld, Israel Hayom

Within the Israeli political system, Avigdor Lieberman is thought of as someone who likes to surprise people. In December 1997, Lieberman shocked everyone with his sudden announcement that he was quitting his job as director-general of the Prime Minister’s Office. In 2006, Lieberman dropped another stunner when he decided to enter Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s government and then threw people for a loop again just over a year later when he left it without any prior warning. Last fall, Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dropped a bombshell when they announced that Likud and Yisrael Beytenu would run together on a joint list in the January 2013 Knesset elections. And in recent weeks, Lieberman and Netanyahu have been planning their next surprise.

This coming Monday, Lieberman will once again become foreign minister. Without the legal shadows that have accompanied him for the past 17 years, Lieberman will finally be free to operate based on purely political motives. From now on, Lieberman will do only what is good for Lieberman. And already for quite some time, he has not hidden his true goal: to become the leader of the Right.

Lieberman’s complete acquittal on Wednesday will likely bring quiet and stability to the current governing coalition. Lieberman needs time to re-establish himself. In the recent municipal elections, Lieberman took a hefty blow, and not just in Jerusalem. His immediate interest is to return to a key leadership position (a senior minister who is part of the most important diplomatic and security forums) and act responsibly and moderately, like he did during his previous term as foreign minister.

Several months ago, Lieberman made the almost inevitable choice to try to work his way to the top of the Likud leadership. To achieve this, he must get Yisrael Beytenu and Likud to merge. However, there are many within Likud who oppose such a merger if it would mean guaranteed high-level Likud positions for Lieberman and his Yisrael Beytenu associates. Lieberman could win a Likud leadership position without a guaranteed spot, but many Yisrael Beytenu members would not be able to get through the Likud primaries and would be left on the outside looking in. How and when will Lieberman and Netanyahu merge their two parties? This is probably the next surprise.

Netanyahu needs Lieberman for stability in the current coalition and Lieberman needs Netanyahu for what comes next. Their relationship is stronger than any ties Lieberman may have developed recently with Shas and Habayit Hayehudi leaders.

It was interesting to see top Likud minister’s welcoming Lieberman’s acquittal on Wednesday. The acquittal was a fatal blow to their plans to run for leadership of the right-wing camp after Netanyahu leaves politics. The moment after blessing Lieberman, these well-wishers probably began working diligently to defeat him.