It’s really pretty simple. The American people understandably don’t want to go to war with Syria — not to mention with Syria’s patron, Iran — and especially not for the goal of putting the Muslim Brotherhood and murderous Islamists into power there. Going to war is a serious matter, to say the least. There’s no assurance how long it will take, how many lives it will cost, and what turns it may take. And the Middle East has just had several examples of these wars.
Iraq and Afghanistan cost a lot of money and lives as they extended for a much longer time than had been expected. In addition, they derailed the Bush administration’s electoral fortunes and domestic programs. With the main emphasis of the Obama administration being a fundamental transformation of America, such distractions are not desired.
There is one other important consideration: the Obama administration does not accept the traditional diplomatic and great power strategies. It believes that it can reconcile with Islamist states, it does not comprehend deterrents, it does not keep faith with allies, and it does not believe in credibility, the belief that only power exerted can convince a foe of seriousness.
Of course, that wouldn’t rule out a one-time targeted attack. But even if that were to be done, is America going to fight a full-scale war on the ground with allies–including al-Qaeda –which will never be satisfied and will always be eager to stab them in the back?
The administration has trapped itself with two problems: the rebels who are being supported in Syria are extreme radicals who may set off bloodbaths and regional instability if they win; and a challenge has been given to the very reckless forces of Iran, Syria, and Hizballah. When the United States threatens these three players, the response is always: “Make my day!”
So this is the situation, and the Obama administration is bluffing.
It does not want to exert force and probably won’t. Iran and Syria would be quite willing to fight a war, but the United States–people and government–do not have the will to do so.
What is the best option for the Obama administration? To try to negotiate — as unlikely as it is — a deal in which some kind of interim or coalition arrangement would be arranged with Russia and Iran to make a transition from the current regime. Mainly, this means a stalling tactic. This could work, though, if the regime does not actually win the war. Aid to rebels and some gimmicks perhaps, but no decisive action.
There is, however, still a problem — the two Syrian sides want to wipe each other out.
Why should the Russians and Iranians make a deal if they have a winning hand? No diplomatic arrangement is possible. In fact, the diplomatic option is fictional. To put it flatly, there is no alternative.
It is not inconceivable that the White House would consider easing sanctions on the Iranian nuclear program to have a chance in Syria. What is likely then is stalling, with the probability that the civil war will settle into stagnation for several years and thus a de facto partition of Syria.
The United States simply can’t win given what it is willing to do. And in a great power standoff, that’s a very dangerous situation. Remember, though: Iran cannot be said to have won as long as the civil war is continuing. The administration can simply depend on denial, which should be sufficient for domestic purposes.
Finally, ask yourself one question: will the United States under Obama dare a confrontation with Iran, Syria, and Russia to keep up American credibility, deterrence, and the confidence of allies who it is already opposing on Egypt? Of course not.
This is a president who could barely decide to kill Osama bin Laden.
bernard ross Said:
I always agree with Yamit 82, he scares me.
bernard ross Said:
I,once, was told that Nixon aided Israel,greatly, during the 1973 war, whether this true or not, one must ask the scary Yamit 82.
honeybee Said:
what do you see differently: is it that you do not agree with yamits appraisal of decades of US betrayal of israel and the Jews? Is it that you beleive that a US President who wanted to frame the jews would be unacceptable to the majority of Americans based on your experience in rural america? Is it that you do not beleive Obama, or a US President is capable of such behavior, Nixon was? You answer is vague.
bernard ross Said:
I understand what you say,but I spend a lot of time in rural America and See thing differently,
bernard ross Said:
Yamit 82 or the Almighty? I rathher take my chanches with The Almighty.
watsa46 Said:
I did not read that it was fifth but that it was among a list of 5; for all we know it may be first.
IL is on her own. That would not be a huge problem if a significant number of Jews were not liberal and therefore anti-Semites. They feel secure in their own skin in the diaspora and refuse to admit that the existence of the state of Il benefit them tremendously. From the FT of today, Israel is the fifth most spied on state by the CIA after Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. For some this would mean that IL is considered as a significant enemy of the US. This explains the intense pressure put on IL politicians when they become prime ministers. Only if the Jews of the diaspora were supporting IL, that would be very helpful to the Israeli Jews. That is not the case.
This being said, Pr. O Islamic view of the world is the reason where we are now. A dead END.
honeybee Said:
Please don’t get me into trouble with Him. 🙂
honeybee Said:
When referring to the USA, in terms of its action and behavior, one must refer to the government of the USA because it is their boot which is felt by all. Succeeding govts of the US have for decades betrayed and harmed the Jewish people and the state of Israel. appearances to the contrary appear to be the result of response to the public. However, as Yamit and others have pointed out here for the last couple of years there is overwhelming evidence of the continuing influence of those intending to harm the jews being in top positions in various admins and depts. The latest revelation where Israel is a designated intelligence target on the same level as Russia, China, Iran Pakistan and Cuba should open your eyes and the eyes of all Jews. This reflects the influence of decades. The jews must always understand that the views of the sheeple are easily changed by one bit of disinformation from the govt. Nixon threatened this. Imagine if Obama or any other president stated that israel colluded to feed false info to the US to draw her into a war and risk US lives. This is the repeated extortion of centuries and is used daily in our world today by apparent allies. Jews must be realistic and know that parties and ideologies are merely red herrings. Somehow, whether right, left, gop, dem, conservative, communist,etc.: they can all find their way to libeling and killing Jews. Things can change quickly.
bernard ross Said:
I read both you and Yamits 82’s posts as if you both had just returned from Mt. Sania itself. what I’am say is the people of the USA, and very much in Texas, support Israel in spit of the left and Obama. The Christian radio station ,which I listen to because it carries Medved,Prager and Levin, is planning an Oct tour of Israel. Support of Israel,Fundamental Christianity and gun rights are seen as rebellion against Obama et al.
However leftest Jews,eg Bloomberg,Weiner,Spritzer,Speilberg,Silverstein are more a problem to me [where I live] then any bigot.
honeybee Said:
Apparently you have not been reading Yamits posts as diligently as you say. He has posted many examples of US betrayal of Israel and the Jews over many decades and many administrations: that means something.
bernard ross Said:
The USA is a good friend of Israel, Obama is not,separate the two.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/post-911-us-spied-on-israel-as-a-priority-target/
So much for the great friend of Israel: The great friend has listed Israel as a priority target along with all its known enemies. Where are all the muslim terror countries on the list, they are probably the allies. I expect Israel is a prime target of Russia and China because of their association as a US stooge but one does not expect the US to place israel in such company of their enemies. There is reality and there are hopes: “Hope springs eternal” but you cannot take it to the bank.
yamit82 Said:
I hate to disagree with you,but if I ran my household like Obama runs govt.,I would be would be fired.
@ honeybee:
Poor little mousey Obama, the House of Commons just voted AGAINST intervention in Syia. oops
@ yamit82:
Once again I must refere you to Robert Burn’s “The Mouse”. I sent you Hamlet’s To Be or Not to Be”,,that is how I see Obama, perhaps you see a cunning Richard III.
Did you hear the English, recently , dug the “humpback” and his casket up in a parking lot.
@ honeybee:
Yes.
Problem is execution and timing, but he has a plan.
yamit82 Said:
Yamit 82 ,Sweetie, you really believe the USA [under Obama] has a long,middle, short or any plan what so ever for anything,let alone the middle east.
It is time for the Jewish nation if not the Jewish state to distance itself from this vile, cowardly, useless but vain and power-hungry black snake.
And time is overdue for the State of Israel to elect a leadership that will never again put the policy whims of a great power ahead of the 3000 year old interests of the Jewish nation to re-assemble itself on the complete Eretz-Yisrael, from the Syrian Desert to the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Suez, and from the Litani River gorge and the Anti-Lebanon Mountains to the Straits of Tiran.
And no, I will not be polite about it this matter either. I am neither nice nor kind and I do not suffer fools. And politically, all my votes now go to Tea Party Republican candidates. And my political wishes encompass impeachment of the black snake by the Congress of the United States.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Moshe Feiglin: Obama will Pay for Complications in Syria with Israeli Concessions
In my evaluation, America’s anticipated strike in Syria is part of a long-term US plan. If it wanted, America could have continued to blur the Syrian use of chemical weapons. Massacres happen all the time throughout the world; some are intentionally ignored while others are amplified. The President of the United States is eager to bolster his image in the aftermath of his resounding policy failures. To stabilize his relations with the Arab world and Russia after expected complications set in, Obama intends to pay in Israeli coinage. Israel must urgently formulate a strategy – and not suffice itself with mere tactical positioning. In the Middle East, either you sit down to the dinner – or you are the main course.
Will Egypt Save Itself From Total Collapse by Going to War With Israel?
Agents of Influence: With the nation divided, in turmoil, and lacking hope for peaceful prosperity, a Middle East neighbor has reason to fear
By Lee Smith
Obama yesterday was talking about firing a “shot across the bows”.
But for an Obama, the shot will prove to be a load of bullshit across the bows.
This is exactly what the American people get for having twice elected to the seat of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Dwight David Eisenhower a Southside Chicago version of Marion Berry, Coleman Young or any other examples of what has become the standard municipal Emperor Jones found in all too many dying American cities.
As for this particular Obama, who, in his first election seemed to slither on an off political stages like a long, black snake, life here is proving to be change you not only can believe in, but can’t hardly escape from, either.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI