By Jonathan S. Tobin, COMMENTARY
There’s supposed to be a news blackout from the reconvened Middle East peace talks going on this week. The Palestinians insisted on that lest their reluctant negotiators be branded as doing something that smacked of legitimizing the Jewish state. But one of their team broke their silence this week in order to complain about the fact that they have been called upon to actually talk one on one with their Israeli counterparts:
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“We had an agreement on three-way negotiations. The Americans from the beginning were supposed to be there. I don’t see why the Israelis don’t want the Americans there, as witnesses,” Hanan Ashrawi, a member of the PLO Executive Committee, told The Times of Israel. “These are not two-way negotiations,” she added.
This would seem to be violation of their undertaking to keep quiet about the talks but Ashrawi had an explanation:
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“I’m not discussing the details or the facts,” she said. “I’m just telling you it’s the Israelis who don’t want the Americans, even though the Americans are totally biased in favor of Israel.”
Asked why she believed the Israelis would request the removal of a party favorable to them, Ashrawi said “they feel they can exploit their power over the Palestinians.”
In saying this, Ashrawi couldn’t have told us more about the negotiations had she produced a transcript. Nor could she have given us a better indication of just how dim the chances of success for this effort are. The Palestinian fear of being trapped in a room with the people they are supposed to be crafting a deal with has nothing to do with fear of Israeli power. It’s all about the fact that the last thing they want is to actually reach an agreement they’d have to justify to a Palestinian people that is still not ready to accept a Jewish state no matter its borders are drawn.
In one sense, Ashrawi’s desire to keep U.S. envoy Martin Indyk in the room is understandable. Contrary to her claim, far from being inclined to bolster the positions of the Netanyahu government, his clear bias is one that that leads him to push for Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians.
But that’s not the real explanation.
It’s not exactly a secret that the ardent desire of Tzipi Livni, the head of the Israeli delegation, is to entice the Palestinians to embrace peace after three times rejecting offers of statehood that would include a share of Jerusalem and almost all of the West Bank. Supposedly that’s exactly what the Palestinians want, although they insist they will never compromise on forcing every Jew out of not only every settlement but the parts of Jerusalem that were illegally occupied by Jordan from 1949 to 1967. But the continuing stream of invective about Jews and Israel pouring out of the official Palestinian media and the so-called moderates of Fatah makes it hard to believe they are finally ready to take yes for an answer. Since PA leader Mahmoud Abbas seems no more capable or willing to accept the peace that he rejected in 2008 when he fled negotiations with Ehud Olmert convened by then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, his primary fear is not the Israeli intransigence the Jewish state’s critics bewail but that Livni will give him what he says he wants.
The Palestinians never wanted to come back to the table after four years’ absence. But with the U.S. prepared to put the screws to Israel to gratify Secretary of State John Kerry’s desire for the talks, it was impossible for them to say no once the Americans gave them the preconditions they demanded. But that doesn’t mean Abbas wants a happy ending to this negotiation. Not only do the Palestinians want the Americans to do their negotiating for them, but their primary objective is to avoid being trapped in a room with someone like Livni who is obviously desperate to agree to any deal.
While there is no telling for certain what will happen in the upcoming months, this is yet one more indication that the main Palestinian objective in the negotiations is to never be maneuvered into a position where they would have to either say yes to peace or reject it and take the blame. Stay tuned for months of pre-emptive Palestinian efforts to deflect the blame for the futile nature of this fool’s errand that Kerry has embarked upon.
Jerusalem okays budget for new East Jerusalem neighborhood
Move could place considerable further stain on ongoing peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians
@ bernard ross:
Russia Urges Discussion on Providing Wheat Aid to Egypt
EU suspends arms deliveries to Egypt
Obama administration quietly suspends military aid to Egypt, mulls ‘coup’ – report
bernard ross Said:
I don’t buy it. The Saudis have been undercutting Obama in so many different ways that are verifiable that it does not look they re on the same page. Qatar seems to be in lock step with Obama but not the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia tries to woo Russia away from Syria with arms deal
Kingdom reportedly made $15 billion offer to buy weapons in return for reduced support of Assad and more cooperation at UN
Aimed at Qatar. I think all things considered the Russians might if challenged strongly enough move to replace America in Egypt which for them is even better as they would defacto control the canal if their influence is strong enough… It will take Egypt many years to replace American weapons with Russian and the Saudis will finance it. The Russians gain access to almost everything the American conventional arms inventory. They will make not make demands to democratize or any such stupid ideas. For a Naval base and a huge potential arms client for cash Egypt should look ripe for picking.
Reuters said that in 2008 Russia agreed to sell Saudi Arabia 150 T-90 tanks along with 100 Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters and additional BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, but although signed and sealed, the deal never went through. Probably due to American pressure but that was then and this is now. Obama still has 3 years and The saudis may just conclude that they need a reliable superpower in back of them in place of America who has not produced.
Add to that the potential of America becoming in the next 5 years oil independent it might force oil prices to dip below the point of cost and that will put the Saudis in deep do-do. Russia has more leverage with Iran than America and they also have veto in UN SS. Russia is moving closer to China and have thwarted for the moment American missiles in E Europe so they are on a roll as America retreats
The Failed Saudi-Russian Talks: Desperate Diplomacy as Syria Implodes
Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief reportedly offered Russian President Vladimir Putin a multibillion-dollar arms deal to curb Moscow’s support for the Syrian regime
The Saudis fear Iranian backed Assad with Hezbollah more than MB and Al-Qaeda taking over.
Yet the situation if fluid and things could change.
Russia offered Egypt aid wheat and arms
yamit82 Said:
Perhaps they already know the outcome and there is nothing to reveal except through leaks during the 9 mos. In any case it appears that there is a goal to maintain quiet, stability and optimisn on the street for the Israel pal issue for 9 mos.
the GCC appears to be seeking a peace between Israel and the Pals. they have demonstrated their abilities to influence events in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Gaza. They are showing that they can leash Hamas and influence the PA. I wondered that if they made a deal with Israel if they would recognize golan as part of Israel or agree not to support syria in its claim. Further, if they are able to influence the formation of a new syrian scenario perhaps they influence that govt to cede golan.
If BB were able to produce a total peace deal under the conditions that most Israelis would accept, also get the golan and attack iran after the proxies are softened up by GCC and possibly even Israel, then he would consider that to be his legacy and his coup. I think the GCC want the Israel pal issue finished, that they dont give a damn about the pals, that they are concerned with their own future. They are businessmen who have maintained a highly successful hold on their populations through their relationship and control of Islamic infrastructures. They control their clerics who control the islamic street communications, raise jihadis,etc. I am sure Israel is already dealing with them and have real missions.
reply to ross # 20 in moderation????
bernard ross Said:
Sure but it not not digress from the original secular Zionist goals and world view.
Oslo was not directly attributed to specific pressure from the outside but a need and desire of some Israelis who believed that our quarrel with the Arabs was land and borders and a naive belief that agreements would allow the Jews a normal existence which conforms to and is consistent the Raison_d’être the the secular mostly socialist Jewish founders.
No specific duress involved in that agreement.
yamit82 Said:
that’s what I have been saying.
yamit82 Said:
since we are all clueless about what is going on in these talks then we don’t know if Israel is paying for it or getting something for being in the talks with the pals. Israel may or may not pay but I do believe that BB believes that Israel will be getting something to be in the 9 mos of talks. Whether it be an attack on Iran by US or Nato or GCC, or whther Israel gets a green light with US/Nato/GCC support, or something we don’t yet know. Perhaps BB has been promised support if he waits 9 mos for combo of jihadis and diplomacy, perhaps BB has been promised neutering of irans proxies to mitigate blowback to Israel if Israel undertakes the attack.
What we know, as I have been repeatedly writing before this article is that the GCC wants Iran neutered in some way,that they are trying to neuter Iran’s proxies now, that the talks have a time of 9 mos coinciding with the projections for irans bomb,that no pals must not leave talks until 9 mos is up, that pals will get 4 bill if they stay 9 mos, that pals will get prisoners over the 9 mos if they continue talks.
The main problem with this article is that it ignores the GCC desire and commitment to neuter Iran and the US commitment to help the GCC. If you accept that premise then this articles idea of Obama seeking the talks as a cover to allow iran to get the bomb makes no sense. It is a cover but not for that.
I think that it is important to go back over the last 2 years or more to see the imprint of the GCC on everything in the area including the gaza cease fire and Israeli pal issue.
yamit82 Said:
It has that appearance, however, it fulfilled the foreigners goals.
yamit82 Said:
I doubt there has been one 2 week period during the existence of the state of Israel where pressure and threats has not been brought against them by EU, UN, US, arabs, etc.
comment to ross in moderation?///
Illogical software!!!!!
bernard ross Said:
there is nothing to protest against until details are leaked. Few Israelis even on the extreme right oppose talking per-se, it’s what comes out of the talks and the details that fraw protests not the act of talking where few believe as yet that they will materialize into anything concrete.
Of course that’s why they are being held in secret so as to avoid protests. If the Jewish home quits the coalition they may or may not be replaced but they could galvanize widespread opposition. First negative substantiated leak of BB caving on settlements should force Bennett to quit. I figure of the 20 Likud MK 12-15 will be in opposition but today ministers and deputy ministers can’t openly oppose BB as he will fire them automatically. That may yet come about but it’s too early.
I don’t buy your take on Iran. I don’t believe Obama will stop Iran and the red line have all been crossed long ago. The Iranian aim is not a bomb or a few bombs but 50-100 asap. They probably have their assemblies and fissile material stored in the middle of Tehran.
Israel needs to attack Iran to maintain any semblance of independent deterrence and even if we are not successful. Obama if he does attack Iran it’s for the Saudis and an American interest and there is no reason for us to have to pay for it.
yamit82 Said:
I agree with this statement but not the conclusion drawn from it. The appearance of progress towards a resolution is needed to raise jihadis and divert their focus from israel/pal issue and towards “sunni jihad against shia/alawite infidels”.
yamit82 Said:
not making sense. the 9 mos is synonymous with the red line for Iran: april. If Iran were to be allowed to develop the bomb by doing nothing then by midterm elections in Nov the issue would be very negative for the admin. However, if the talks amounted to nothing and the jihsdis were able to be recruited to destabilize iran during the period, or the US and everyone else including the arabs and my dog entered the war, then a nov election would favor the admin at war as part of a coalition of everybody. If the destabilization works then the admin will be favored. Iran bomb will be of detrimental value to Obama for midterm elections. During the 9 mos, any seeming progress or fake deal will keep the pal issue from interfering with the GCC goals.
Note that Qatar as resumed shipping of natural gas to Egypt as a “gift” to army govt
yamit82 Said:
I agree with this statement but unless it is understood that it is no coincidence regarding all the surrounding arab muslim countries being in “civil/religious” wars then the goals are not seen or factored into the analysis. Of course, one can always fool themselves into thinking that these arab springs twitter revolutions were the result of, and caused by, democratic forces. Who actually made the tweets which aroused dissidents in the various venues and allowed them to be a cover for jihdist mercenaries? It is a clear and repeated pattern.
bernard ross Said:
Oslo was an Israeli project and the Americans brought in as a closer. No duress unless you consider the first intifada as duress?
yamit82 Said:
as you know I have been saying for months that the 9 mos schedule is related to Iran. However, I disagree as to the reasons/conclusions offered here. I do not believe that the talks are a cover to mask doing nothing with Iran. Everything that has been taking place is on behalf of the GCC against Iran and its proxies. They want iran neutralized and US is helping them. I believe the reason is to allow the GCC to focus efforts in the arab/sunni world against Iran without having the Israel card raised by the pals or their enemies. We always see how Israel is drawn in by any side in order to veer arab opinion away from an issue on to Israel I think the talks are meant to keep the pal issue irrelevant while plans progress to recruit jihadis against Assad, hexbullah, shia iraq and ultimately Iran. I think the Jihadis are their plan primarily to destabilize Iran under the same cover of a persian spring but fueled by sunni jihadis now being assembled, Kurds,azeris and internal dissidents. they do not need the cover of fake talks to avoid dealing with Iran however they do need that cover to organize arab and sunni forces against shia iran before the 9 mos. the 9 mos is the period during which things must be accomplished to avoid the “red line” the pals have been bought off with the 4 billion and the prisoners to keep quiet for 9 mos. Also, Israel in order to see what the US/GCC will accomplish against Syria, hezbullah, Iraq and kurds. I think this is about US and GCC interests and that Israel and the pals are sub players. Suddenly we see jihadis begging Israel to help against assad. Perhaps keeping the Golan will have less opposition in the future.
yamit82 Said:
there is another argument: when a treaty is signed under duress. It is a principle of law that contracts made under duress are not legally enforceable or legally binding. Israels prior agreements have all been made under duress and can be legally repudiated.
yamit82 Said:
here is a bad omen of how a minority controlled the day, therefore a majority is not enough, there must be protest.
The Timetable for Negotiations is Critical
What makes a nine month timetable important?
On the Ceding of Territory
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Blogs/Message.aspx/5245#.Uhol1KyBbfg
In a legal comment by Julian Ku, When is a Treaty Ceding Territory Not a Treaty Ceding Territory?, is read this:
Survey: Most Israelis Oppose New Withdrawal
Most Israelis think Oslo Accords were bad for Israel, and oppose giving up Judea and Samaria.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170979#.UholP6yBbfg
Poll: Only 21% Believe in PA State as Real Solution
Just 21% of Israelis think the PA will create a new Arab state. Most see “status quo” as the most realistic scenario.
A new survey conducted by Maagar Mohot (Brain Base) for the Professors for a Strong Israel group has found that only a small minority of Israelis believe the Palestinian Authority will establish a new Arab state in Judea, Samaria (Shomron) and Gaza – and only 11% hope it will.
Likud’s Nationalist Camp Prepares for ‘Developments’
Likud’s nationalist camp hints Netanyahu will face internal opposition to new concessions.
Poll: Only 21% Believe in PA State as Real Solution
Just 21% of Israelis think the PA will create a new Arab state. Most see “status quo” as the most realistic scenario.
A new survey conducted by Maagar Mohot (Brain Base) for the Professors for a Strong Israel group has found that only a small minority of Israelis believe the Palestinian Authority will establish a new Arab state in Judea, Samaria (Shomron) and Gaza – and only 11% hope it will.
The poll asked respondents to choose the solution to the Israel-PA conflict that they most prefer, and the solution they think is most realistic.
The most popular answer in both cases was simply to maintain the status quo. Currently Judea and Samaria is split into three areas, called A, B, and C. The PA has full control over Area A, Israel controls Area C, and in Area B the IDF is tasked with oversight of security, while the PA has legal power over other aspects of daily life.
Forty-one percent of respondents said the status quo is their preferred solution, and 51% said it is the most realistic solution. In comparison, just 21% said the creation of a new PA state is the solution with the best chance to take place.
When it came to preferred solutions, the idea of a PA state proved very unpopular, with just 11% expressing support. Nineteen percent said their preferred solution would be the “Plan B” that Professors for a Strong Israel has proposed – the annexation of Judea and Samaria.
However, only 7 percent said they believe annexation is the solution with the best odds of being put into effect.
Professors for a Strong Israel pointed out that the poll shows their proposal is more popular than the plan the government is actually pursuing.
“The purpose of this conference is to prove to the Israeli public that something that a large part of the population wants – is realistic,” said Professor Aryeh Eldad.
“This is the arena of the battle for public awareness, which Professors for a Strong Israel recently entered under my leadership,” he added, concluding, “This poll proves that we are not operating in an empty vacuum, but rather, putting a real alternative out there for debate.”
tobin believes whatever he is fed, a useful idiot.
@ NormanF:
I do understand the arab mentality and I don’t give a shit.
@ NormanF:
I’m not a fan of Livni. But I do NOT think Livni should pander to the arab-muslim misogynistic culture by bowing out. If the talks fail as a result, all the better. I don’t want Israel making any concessions to the PA.
All the answers are already pre-printed.
If the Pal reject an accord it will be the fault of the Jews who refused to hang themselves. Remember that IL in spite of the forceful claim of the US Pr. about the absolute rejection of preconditions, just imposed preconditions on IL.NormanF Said:
Likewise they can’t understand a Il woman. This is scary for them and the whole chauvinistic and misogynistic Arab Muslim world. This is an apparent negative turned into a positive for IL. To concede to a woman, Jewish and IL in particular, must be one of the greatest offense for Muslim man!!!
They are all emotions, their brain cells have long ago been destroyed by juvenile brainwashing.
The Pals are making complaints about the process, and alleged broken promises daily. They have the lie complaint machine in full bloom.
They are just trying to make sure they do not get blamed when the peace talks fail as they surely will.
They went to the talks because of USA threats, promises plus of course getting their terrorist killer buddies released from Israeli prison.
The reason why the talks will fail is also because Tzipi Livni has too much of an ego to cede her place to a man.
In the Arab culture, a woman has as much respect as a Jew. And Livni suffers from being both in Arab eyes.
The woman does not understand the Arab mentality.