By Ted Belman
Both Lapid ande Bennett are reformers and both want to cut the Hareidi down to size by shifting authority to the religious Zionists and by integrating the hareidi into the IDF and the workforce.
But on key matters they are unalterably opposed. Bennett wants to annex Area C and Lapid wants to give it all up accept for the settlement blocs. Lapid would settle for most of the settlement blocs rather than all.
Lapid wants negotiations with Abbas to start within 6 months. Bennett prefers that there be no negotiations.
Bennett is very much against the deal with Livni. Lapid has no problem with it. In fact having Livni in the government strengthens his agenda.
Lapid, Netanyahu and Bennett are all for a united Jerusalem but I believe that Lapid is flexible on this, less so Netanyahu and certainly not, Bennett.
If Netanyahu forms a government with Lapid and Bennett excluding the Hareidi parties, the guidelines will probably be silent on settlements and concessions to offer Abbas to get negotiations started. Will Bennett be able to prevent uprooting settlers or making gratuitous concessions. The only power he might have is to bring down the government. Perhaps my readers can explain how a government can be brought down.
In anticipation of Bennett moving to do so, Bibi could always bring in Labour into the government to bolster the peace process and allow the evacuation of Jews. Will Likud go this far?
Abbas will never make a deal with Lapid (or anybody else) unless he gets lethal concessions from Lapid. Abbas is no different from Arafat and other Islamists. The West will as usual ignore this and try to blackmail IL.
In the end the coalition will be Likud/Betenyu – Yesh Atid, Bait Yehudi, Kadima and maybe the Zip Livini party. Likud does not like this because either Yesh Atid or Bait Yehudi could always threaten to bring the government down at any time. If fact Bibi is worried at what Lapid perceives to be the right time he will do that so he can win an election to become the following Primer Minister.
The Likud will agree to this coalition because going to elections again in a few months is a complete roll of the dice for Bibi. Even if he wins the most votes it is likely to be less than the 31 he received now. It is possible he will loose votes to Bait Yehudi on the right and Yesh Atid in the center. Bibi wants to get Shas and the UTJ in the coalition because with a large coalition he will rule the Knesset as one party will not be able to call for new elections.
So Yesh Atid would have far more influence in the running of the country and be able to force many of the changes that center voters want to make (e.g. changes to the draft law, education changes, and perhaps even changes to the marriage/religious strangehold of the Haredi Rabbais).
yamit82 Said:
Moshe Feiglin is the only one in the Likud who might run against the PM. But he won’t do so because the party elite will never accept him in that office. None of the other Likud leaders want to rock the boat to the point the Likud loses an early election. If Netanyahu wants to destroy Yesha, the bottom line is no one is going to stop him. I don’t see that internal palace revolt happening. Its wishful thinking.
The Likud right won’t challenge Netanyahu.
I think if there is no coalition agreement, there will be early elections.
If Netanyahu can’t or won’t pay Bennett’s/Lapid’s price, he will probably try to get outside backing from Labor for a Likud-Livni-haredi government.
He has two more weeks to decide his path. Its do or die time for Netanyahu.
Only a palace revolt by enough Likud-Betaneu MK’s can stop BB and the threat of Likud central committee to change the top spot of party leader rendering BB’s demotion or ouster.
Making the choice between BB, giving up Y&S, settlements and Jerusalem and the knowledge that doing so will be the same or having the effect of destroying what’s left of the Likud!! Should be the presented option for those who still care.
I don’t see that happening. Shas and the haredi parties can’t be relied upon except possibly as payback to BB if they are in fact kept out of the coalition. If they are in or are bribed with money they will go with BB.
Bennett in or out of Government cannot stop a determined BB, They don’t have the power, only the Likud internally do. I don’t believe there are enough to pull it off.
It would present itself as a golden opportunity for someone from the Likud to step up and challenge BB for party leadership from the right.