Dennis Ross: 18 months countdown to Iran conflict

By Jerry Gordon and Ted Belman

Amb. Dennis Ross, chief negotiator for Bush Senior and Clinton and some believe instigator of the infamous Oslo Accords, evinces a reality check about the apocalyptic threat to Israel from Iran’s whacky President Ahmadinejad. My, how the worm has turned.

Amb. Ross was interviewed by Nathan Gardels on left wing, Huffington Post, a favorite haunt of moonbats. Here are some of his observations about the current situation in Israel, why Ahmadinejad can’t be stopped with ‘sanctions’ and why we have virtually no time left to take his nuclear enrichment program out.

On the Iranian Nuclear threat timeline

“For Israel, the “red line” is not so much when Iran has enough enrichment capacity for weapons-grade material. Their deadline is 18 months from now when Iran’s air defense system, which is being upgraded by the Russians, will be completed. That will make it much more difficult to successfully strike Iran’s nuclear capacity from the air. The closer we get to that window without resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem, the more Israel will feel compelled to strike.
Clearly, at the moment, we are headed down the path of use of force. The slow-motion diplomacy of the West simply does not match the rapid development of Iran’s nuclear capacity and the closing window when Iran’s upgraded air defenses will be in place.”

This is alarming advice. Certainly matters are worse when Iran’s air defenses are in place but who says we can or should wait. Especially when diplomacy is going nowhere. Israel should make it clear to the Europeans that either they produce tangeble results within six months or Israel will strike.

On what diplomacy should be doing now to avert the Iranian nuclear countdown

“First, the Saudis must push Europe. An Iran with nuclear weapons is a profound threat to Saudi Arabia, which fears that Iran will be able to hide behind a nuclear shield behind which they can engage in coercion and subversion across the Middle East. The Saudis could use their economic clout in Europe to affect the choices of European banks, investment houses and governments which have links to Iran.

Second, the Israelis need to go the Europeans and say, “If you think you are on a path that will avoid war, you are mistaken. You are increasing the risk of war because we will not be able to live with an Iran with nuclear weapons.”

Third, the United States must join with the Europeans in direct talks with Iran the way it did with others over North Korea. Europeans know they will only be able to reach a deal with Iran if the U.S. is at the table.

Already, many Europeans want the U.S. to suspend the condition that Iran stop enrichment before it enters talks. I am not in favor of dropping that condition unless there is another one. I would say to the Europeans that the U.S. will favor suspending the enrichment condition if they cut the economic lifeline to Iran now”.

On whether sanctions have any clout

The Iranian ruling elite is split between those who are intransigent and think they can live with isolation, and those who don’t. For me, the incident a few months back when the British sailors were taken hostage was instructive. The Revolutionary Guard, which seized the sailors, didn’t want to release them unless they got something for it. They got nothing because the decision to release the British sailors was imposed on them from above.

In the end, the balance of power will shift toward those in the elite who want to avoid war, economic misery and social unrest. Look at the turmoil that has erupted already over the relatively modest rationing of gasoline! Sanctions would make the unsettled atmosphere in Iran much more acute.

We are headed on a pathway now that will lead to the use of force. We don’t want it to be that way. It doesn’t have to be that way. There are alternatives, but the clock is ticking.

On Israeli leadership and Iran nuclear threat

“If there were an election today, Netanyahu would win. Yet, his standing in the polls is also a reflection of the weakness of Ehud Olmert, the current prime minister — who stands at two percent in a recent poll — and the enduring weaknesses of the Labor Party.

Netanyahu’s prospects when an election is actually called will depend largely on whether Ehud Barak, another former prime minister and war hero who is now defense minister, can restore credibility to this government and to himself as a leader.

For the moment, this government is more stable than generally believed because half of those in the Israeli Knesset would stand to lose their seats if an election were called now. So, there is a predisposition against calling an election. I don’t think we’ll see an election until the fall of 2008.
The larger issue is how Netanyahu might act on Iran compared to others. My view is, Netanyahu or not, there is a very strong view in the Israeli security establishment that they cannot live with an Iran with nuclear weapons.”