DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2012, 10:55 PM
Tehran is developing its own plans for continuing the Syrian war and maintaining its grip on the country – even as Washington and Russia press on with secret discussions on the fate of Syrian president Bashar Assad, backed by UN-Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi’s mediation efforts in Damascus. Tuesday, Dec. 25, the envoy said after meeting Assad that he would stay on for another six days in the hope of persuading the parties to end their bloody hostilities.
At the same time, Iran is putting its military and intelligence assets in place ready for the day after Assad’s departure.
DEBKAfile reports: In the opinion of Saudi intelligence chiefs who attended the two-day GCC summit in Manama Monday and Tuesday, Iran has drawn up plans to sabotage any deal Washington and Moscow may pull off between Assad and the rebels for ending their war and incapacitate any transitional regime set up to replace the Assad presidency.
Those sources report that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already issued directives to Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Al Qods Brigades (Iran’s external intelligence and terrorist arm), for perpetuating the Syrian conflict by means of a terrorist network spread across the country and operating in conjunction with local militias.
“These militias,” said one Saudi intelligence source, “all depend on Hizballah for their supplies of weapons, explosives, funds and intelligence.”
Their task together with the terrorist cells will be to keep Syria in a constant state of warfare and so prevent any central government in Damascus from exercising its authority after Assad’s exit. There will be one secure island in the havoc: a fortified enclave in the capital. This setup will resemble the fortified palace compound in Kabul where Afghan President Hamid Karzai is barricaded, or Baghdad’s Green Zone in which Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is protected.
Iran’s Hizballah design for Syria borrows heavily from Soleimani’s al Qods program for Iraq in the years 2003-2007.
Then, Tehran used its terrorist squads under Hizballah’s guidance to systematically derail US control of the country. They generated violent mayhem for the purpose of rendering any pro-Western regime rising in Baghdad unsustainable and forced it to make way for a government dependent on Tehran.
Today, Iraq’s prime minister is reduced to a measure of dependence that leaves him powerless to stop the Iranian airlift bound for Syria transiting his country’s airspace and sends him running to Tehran for approval before every change of policy.
The Supreme Leader is believed by Saudi intelligence to have condemned post-Assad, post-war Syria to a version of this scenario and blocked any chance for the US and the West to extricate the country from Iran’s clutches, whether the Syrian ruler stays or goes.
Five years after performing for Tehran in Iraq, Hizballah has been recast for the return show in Syria – the only difference being the change in a key role. In Iraq, Al Qods benefited from the services of Hizballah’s late military chief Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in Damascus in February, 2008. His successor is Wafiq Safa, a kinsman of Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who is already working in Syria with the commander of Iranian forces in Lebanon, Gen. Hossein Mahadavi,.
Saudi intelligence is deeply pessimistic about the next stage of Syria’s future. They envisage Bashar Assad sticking it out in Damascus and pretty soon giving the order to launch chemical and biological warfare against the insurgency and Syria’s close neighbors.
@ Max,
I’ve never been in the US.
Don’t watch TV.
Sorry,can’t help you.
@ shachalnur:
Jon Stewart is what you would be if you were smug and lazy and on Prozac living in America. He is one of the Jihadists greatest assets in America destroying ‘from within’. I’m surprised you don’t have a shrine to him in your kitchen??!!
I don’t ‘watch him’ per se, he is a study in propaganda techniques. Jon Stewart’s Pr0n name is “Jane Fonda”.
You could be him. You could be the second coming, generation “Stewart 2.0”!!!
Just say it out loud! You believe in cherries! er .. berries! er harries! ..caries? well anyway just be as stupid as you wanna be and you’ll fit right into contemporary America!!!
@ Max,
Jon Steward,who’s that,is that TV,you watch that?
My observations that Assad’s artillery and airstrikes have gone full tilt berserker mode seems to be confirmed in the MSM’s media.
So this explains the recent high level defections and means there will be more of them. It works against Assad.
For example, at the Wansee conference, the Nazi party were discussing the problem of exterminating the Jews. They had discovered that using regular and elite troops on executions had a very debilitating effect on morale. The warrior ethic found acts of cowardice and outright murder of non military targets to be cowardly, abhorrent and uncivilized. It works against the pride of professional fighters who are invested in their combative self-worth.
The Nazis had to train special SS officers and squads who went through a special programs in which they were trained and vetted and performed brutal murder. If they didn’t get with the program they were kicked out.
So that is what is happening with Assad’s forces. He is forcing his professional military and rank and file to engage in acts of deliberate murder and making them chose.
It’s against the grain of most normal military people, it’s one thing to be on the sidelines, it’s another to be fight up there being asked to split babies with axes etc. Assad has special SS-type Shabiha groups for that purpose but he doesn’t have enough of them- nor enough time to train a full and new generation of such killers.
This is also another constraint on the use of chemical weapons. Using them will do enormous, perhaps fatal harm to the integrity and legitimacy of regime command. In this situation , it’s a weapon that will backfire more than prove useful.
…
Just my relections on the combat situation.
shachalnur Said:
Well, what would make me happy is if you’d turn your high powered intellect on Jon Stewart and give him the business. Debunk him – out him, expose his lies, deceits and propagandas. He’s a Jew , what more do you need – go git him!
Another northern city falls after a six month siege, big defections including the Army Police Chief of Staff, gains almost every hour.
Aleppo – one month tops?
They always fight to the last other guy’s blood.
They always have to go down hard because Mafioso always have no place to retire.
@ Max,
Thank you for the advice ,Max.
Just what I needed,I feel a lot better now.
What can I do, to make YOU feel better?
shachalnur Said:
Yas, of course there is nothing more terrifying than senseless facts.
Those horrible Jews and those horrible, horrible facts! Do you still hear the screaming of the facts at night in the dark?
…
You really need a better hobby S. – something to help you stay in contact with the world of the senses.
@ max,
Afraid of facts or just a coward in general,
Try my post on Ethiopean succes story,more facts.
Horrible ,horrible facts,like the pieces I recommended you on jewsagainstzionism.
Max doesn’t want facts or proof.
Max wants to live in a Suicidal Zionist Fantasy Wonderland ,where the rest of the world will bow for the chosen,ignorant Max’s.
Please ,let’s get into a discussion on facts and reality,or keep chewing on your gefillte fish ,caught by the dreidel in the rowboat.
If you don’t want a discussion on facts,like all the above,find someone else to communicate with.
I’m a pacient person,but this is a waste of time.
@ shachalnur:
tl,dr
But I am wondering what happened to the dreidel in the rowboat with the twenty jews?
Makes me wonder…
@ Max,
“I wonder what they are hoping to achieve….”
Asking the question is answering it.
There’s no way for you to understand what’s happening,because you don’t read sources that tell you the truth.
Your analysis is total rubbish,based on spin,and now you’re wondering why there’s no information around.
Here’s some facts that might help you understanding Israel’s problem with Hezbollah.
The problem is “Mathematics and Firepower”
1. 2006 Israel -Hezbollah war;
Hezbollah takes out an Israeli Navy Corvette ,with ONE Silkworm missile(Chinese build,Iran modified)
Hezbollah landed 2 missiles on exactly the same spot in Haifa,on following days.
These missiles were thrown at exactly the same distance to the Ammoniac Silo in front of the coast.
If the silo is hit with Amoniac in it,it will kill half on Haifa,depending on the wind.
Hezbollah landed a missile next to Nethanya ,on the last day of the war,Israel stopped shooting after that missile.(too close to Tel-Aviv.)
2. The Iron Dome;
Israeli build launching device,armed with Radar guided,US produced Patriot missiles.
2 missiles have to be fired at any incoming missile.
US just released 663 million dollars to replenish some of the Patriots used against firecrackers from Gaza.(Fajr 5 was never used,only M-75,cost 1000 dollars)
Price of a Patriot missile is ,at least 2 million dollars per missile.
So 663 million dollars will buy you about 330 missiles,enough to take out about 170 incoming missiles.
Hezbollah have about 50.000 missiles(not firecrackers) dug in underground.
Gazans fired two salvo’s of about 16 firecrackers at Beer Sheva on the last day of the recent conflict.
Iron dome missed half of these salvo’s,because of reloading, time problems.
3. Russia has supplied Syria with Iskander missiles.
2 problems with that;
Iskanders can take out Patriot defense systems(Turkey),or Iron Dome.(Israel)
There’s no proof Patriot missiles can intercept Iskanders(6-7 mach).
Iskanders for Syria was Russia’s way to say to US ,Europe,Nato,Turkey and Israel;”don’t even think about it”.
So ,Max, the mathematics don’t add up.
Not enough Iron Domes(5 ready) and to stop ,let’s say,10.000 missiles from Hezbollah,you need about 20.000 Patriots.
Cost is about 40 Billion dollars to stop 1/5 of Hezbollah’s arsenal,if they don’t fire salvo’s.
Israel’s worst nightmare is a confrontation with Hezbollah.
A few hundred guerillas dug in underground,lobbing up to 50.000 missiles from close to the Israel-Lebanon border.
Options for Israel;
Very limited,the enemy is underground,even carpetbombing all of the south of Lebanon,will not stop the missiles.
Mass murdering the Lebanese population,like Nethanyahu threatened a month ago,is Israel’s only option.
Depleted Uranium bombs(so-called “bunkerbusters”)? Nuclear weapons?
All useless because the fallout will blow straight back into the North of Israel.
Hezbollah is the 600 pound gorilla in the room.
Don’t worry too much about Iran,they haven’t started a war in 200 years.
Chess is a Persian invention ,and world champs are usually Russians.
That’s why the Israeli press and Debka have trouble spinning this problem,but at least they’re trying,like you,Max.
The whole article is so twisted, it’s not worth going over point by point. With a successful Sunni revolution, no matter who you support, we can expect Hezbollah and Iran to be big losers in the balance of power. Moreover Hezbollah will be greatly weakened in Lebanon both in their weapon supply line and in the balance of power with the opposition in Lebanon.
Hezbollah already is in Syria in strength and fighting for Assad. There is only a ten percent population support base for them in the Alawites and that is not even certain with Assad gone – they couldn’t do more harm than now and they can only wane in power so what exactly is the big hoo-ha?
Debka is no longer a credible site for Miltel. They are just playing head games. I wonder what they are hoping to achieve propaganda wise here and who would bother with it?
TIME TO STOP IRAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!