For all practical purposes, President Barack Obama has now recognized the Syrian opposition group as the government of Syria. Specifically, he called them the “legitimate representative” of the Syrian people.” The European Union did the same a few days earlier. While this has move little immediate, practical effect, it is enormously interesting for understanding this issue. And it is also yet another signal that the civil war in Syria is moving into the end-game.
First, the implications include the following:
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–Thank goodness that only happened after the U.S. government switched its allegiance from the Syrian National Council (SNC). That group, basically created by U.S. initiative (implemented by the Islamist Turkish government) was about 100 percent controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood. The new group which Obama recognized, the Syrian Opposition Council, is “only” about 40 percent controlled by the Brotherhood. That means there is at least hope of a non-Islamist regime in Syria (see below). [See note at end of article for an example of how U.S. policy gave behind-the-scenes support to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.]
–Let’s take a moment to remember that despite all the talk about the problems of backing dictatorships, the Obama Administration did back the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship in Syria. It then easily changed sides to back the opposition. In Egypt, too, Obama switched sides to support the opposition.
There are two lessons here. First, you can support a dictatorship and then back the opposition if a big challenge happens to take place. Second, what’s most important for U.S. interests is not whether the Americans want to befriend an opposition but whether the opposition once in power wants to befriend the Americans. If they are Islamists, abandon hope of that happening.
–Ironically, of course, the group recognized as being the true representatives of the Syrian people was largely created due to U.S. and Western patronage and power. While the new Council did arise from discussions among Syrians, of course, this decision shows that as in the nineteenth century the West—Obama Progressives as much as Victorian era imperialist–still tries to control who gets into power in Third World countries. Power politics is still the name of the game; the question is whether that game is well-played.
In the American presidential campaign, Mitt Romney made the little-noted assertion that the United States should put the emphasis on ensuring that moderates win in Syria. That notion is totally alien to the Obama Administration.
–The Syrian Opposition Council does not really represent Syrians, not only because those within the country haven’t voted but also because this is an external organization with little or no influence inside the country. It also doesn’t have the guns. What it will have is control over Western economic aid in future but this Council cannot be expected to be the basis for a post-civil war government.
–In sharp contrast to Libya, we know a lot about the Syrian opposition groups and their leading personalities. The problem, however, is to determine the relative military strength of each group. No doubt, the CIA has a project to analyze the situation in every province and city. I wish we could see their data but since we can’t we have to try to figure out the balance of forces.
This situation is made even more complex because so many groups exist and ideology is cut across by the existence of five different ethnic-religious sectors: Sunni Arab Muslims (about 60 percent), Christians and Alawites (about 12-14 percent each); Kurds and Druze.
Will Alawites end up being cut out entirely because that group formed the basis for the Assad regime? Probably.
Will Christians end up being cut out almost entirely because that group backed the Assad regime due to fear of the Islamists who now will probably try to cut them out? Probably.
Will there be massacres of Alawites and Christians by a victorious opposition, accompanied by tens or even hundreds of thousands of cross-border refugees? Very possibly, yes.
Will the Kurds gain autonomy for their home region in the northeast, an autonomy they are ready to defend using armed militias? Very possibly yes. (Incidentally, it is fascinating to consider how the Kurds in both Iraq and Syria have succeeded on the ground with the opposite strategy from that of the Palestinians. The Kurds have focused on practical measures and on getting a really functioning Kurdish entity; the Palestinians have put the priority on symbolism and total victory.)
The ultimate complication in Syria is the existence of six distinctive ideological camps:
–Salafist groups allied with al-Qaida. There may be more than 25 such organizations and they also include fighters from a wide variety of European and Middle Eastern countries. These groups have no chance of taking power or even a large share of any future parliament.
Their threat is that they would be dangerously disruptive: attacking Alawites, Christians, and also Kurdish autonomists; trying to attack Israel from Syrian territory; fomenting anti-American and anti-Western views or even waging terrorist attacks on Western people and institutions in Syria; and attacking more secularist politicians, women who favor modern ways, etc. But, again, they are not well organized and will not gain any domestic political power.
–Salafist groups not allied with al-Qaida. Everything said about the al-Qaida linked groups also applies to them except that they might have significant foreign backing from Saudi Arabia (which wants to subvert Muslim Brotherhood power) and they could get a significant share of parliamentary seats if they are able to unite. But this sector, too, is not likely to gain state power.
–The Muslim Brotherhood. This is the only truly united group in Syria that has a significant national appeal, a clear agenda, and a disciplined hierarchy. It is backed by Qatar and Turkey, while the Western countries seem to be totally uninterested in countering the Brotherhood’s appeal and ambitions.
Whatever the relative size of their military forces, they are closer to being an army than the other relatively rag-tag, ad hoc forces. Historically, the Brotherhood has been far smaller proportionately than its fraternal group in Egypt. A Brotherhood takeover of Syria is by no means inevitable but if one had to bet it seems the single most likely scenario. A key issue is whether the Brotherhood can gain hegemony among traditionalist, pious Syrians who have never had anything to do with the Brotherhood organizationally but would approve of a lot of its platform regarding a Sharia-oriented state and rejecting a modern liberal or Arab nationalist approach.
–The moderates. There are a lot of liberal forces in Syria, especially among urban Sunni Muslim Arabs who are intellectuals or in business. They are far more sophisticated and skilled than their Egyptian counterparts (sorry, Egyptian friends, but it’s true) and they could form alliances with Kurds and Christians also. Unfortunately, the West hasn’t helped them very much. They also have some characteristic weaknesses. These include factionalism, a blindness toward the practical political work of mobilizing the masses, problems in communicating with their traditionalist fellows.
Most of all, they lack the killer instinct. They don’t have guns or militias, and they aren’t willing to intimidate or murder their rivals. That can be a fatal shortcoming in an anything-goes post-civil war Syria. Still, this group is the main alternative to Muslim Brotherhood rule. These people are not—unlike their Western counterparts—naïve about Islamists. Whatever compromises they will need to make they have no illusions that the Islamists are moderate or will become so.
–Local strongmen. This group is important even if it cannot gain power on a national level. Such people are in real control of many areas of the country; they have lots of guns; and they are able to appeal to traditionalist Syrians in rural and small town areas. They are not Islamist and don’t want Salafist or Brotherhood cadre to tell them what to do or how to live. But they will have to form alliances to have a wider effect and opportunism might drive them into the Brotherhood’s camp.
–Defected army officers. These men are the most effective military specialists. They tend to be Arab nationalists. Yet they do not form a political group and won’t do so. Their relevance comes from the likelihood that they will form the leadership of the new Syrian army which, down the road, might come to exercise some political influence or even power.
The key to Syria’s future state, then, is between two broad blocs—Islamist and non-Islamist—which will work together at least for a while to defeat the remnants of the Assad regime and create a stable new government.
The Brotherhood needs to work out something with the Salafists and to build a broad appeal with conservative-traditionalist Syrians and perhaps with local strongmen. The moderates have to learn street politics, win over local strongmen; find a way to split the conservative-traditionalist masses from the Islamists; and work out some alliance with Christians and Kurds without being branded as traitors to Sunni Arab interests.
Not only does the Brotherhood have the easier task but it also can expect more foreign support and money, even possibly from the United States. The battle isn’t yet lost but things don’t look great.
That’s especially true since a West that set up a new regime in Libya and helped (albeit fairly little) the opposition overturn the Syrian regime, suddenly freezes when it comes to helping ensure that Syria has a pro-Western government that contributes to regional stability and is less repressive at home.
Note:
–The Libyan government gave 50 percent of the funds to finance the budget of the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council (SNC) budget. Since Libya is very much a U.S. client, it’s reasonable to conclude that the Obama Administration encouraged this generosity. Yet this money was financing a Muslim Brotherhood front.
By the same token, a lot of arms have been flowing from Libya to Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip and to radical forces in Syria. Some claim that the U.S. government was coordinating that traffic though this has not yet been proven. But at least indirectly the U.S. government was helping to arm the Brotherhood by overseeing Qatar and Turkey delivering weapons to the Brotherhood’s militia without making any attempt to identify and arm moderate and non-Islamist forces instead.
This means the Obama Administration was using a barely disguised channel to pay for a revolutionary Islamist movement seeking to take over Syria. The fact that this group was also anti-American, antisemitic, and genocidal toward Jews seems significant.
The rest of the SNC budget came from Qatar (38 percent) and Saudi Arabia (12 percent).
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest book, Israel: An Introduction, has just been published by Yale University Press. Other recent books include The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). The website of the GLORIA Center and of his blog, Rubin Reports. His original articles are published at PJMedia.
“They also have some characteristic weaknesses. These include factionalism, a blindness toward the practical political work of mobilizing the masses, problems in communicating with their traditionalist fellows.”
This could be said of every politician in the West too. Especially the Republican Party of late.
Max Said:
that must explain these comments of yours:
I have no idea what points of fact you are trying to make behind the ravings. You appear to have secured a Guiness Book of Records credit for the most Ad Hominem stated per paragraph in your continuing comments on various forums here. You speak of the value of social media, reproach the MSM, yet quote and give links from MSM NYT; you state concepts and conclusions gleaned from the “real time” advantage of social media already given prior by Debka. When questions are put to you you avoid them with irrelevant rants.
Max Said:
I notice this tactic for avoiding every question put to you over a number of posts. It appears that ignorance and avoidance are bliss.
@ the phoenix :
Stop giving you kids their allowences!!!!!!!!!!!
Who will rule Syria, the 7 Greek gods of war,Panic Chaos etc. has ever been different.
Max Said:
max,
either,i have been blind to a side of you which is not flattering, or, it is just with latest posts (specifically directed @ bernard ross) that you are showing something…’new’.
understand this max, my comments about muslims (on ALL threads, not just this one) stem from the basic principle that i h.a.t.e. e.v.i.l. and ESPECIALLY those that perpetrate and enable evil to exist and flourish.
the jewish nation has the unfortunate very dubious honor of being the most hated and demonized group in history.
as far as muslims go, it is NOT as you say “Unreasoning or inflexible ethnic hatred” on my part but theirs!
i could easily fill the rest of this thread with examples upon examples of THEIR “Unreasoning or inflexible ethnic hatred” as seen in page after page after page of their kkkoran and the preachings of their ‘holy men’ and scholars…
i am just sick and tired of seeing day in and day out headlines about the latest musloid attrocity, and just to add insult to injury, whitewashed with code names (asians, disenchanted immigrant groups, youths etc)
what i am saying is that it is high time we turn the tables around and it should be :
“if you are a muslim, you are guilty till proven otherwise”
let THEM squirm and justify their ‘innocence’ (yes max, i am NOT crazy, i KNOW that there are some good innocent muslims….i fight with my kids on this very subject…quite often)
where, oh WHERE are all these mythical ‘moderates’?
i admit, maybe i am selfish. but i would much rather try and protect my family and friends and somebody come and tell me that ‘we found a righteous man in sdom (ehm i mean amongst the muslims)’ and i’ll admit to being wrong (on that case) than god forbid, be involved in the next musloid inflicted tragedy, and proven right.
@ Max:No, Obama is not powerful enough by himself to front the Muslim Brotherhood, but he is powerful enough to engage forces friendly to the MB and he is surely powerful enough to give it political support. There has been not a WORD of condemnation of Morsi’s power grab, not a WORD of condemnation of Mashaal’s diatribe against the Jews and plenty of support for Turkey’s support of Islamist forces. Do not underestimate the power of the exaggeration of the power of the President of the United States.
As I said he is either a spook, or is out of his depth, going on previous dogma from before Bush disastrously removed Saddam
the test for Zionism today is DO THEY DEFEND THE ALAWITES?
Bernard Ross Said:
Common sense rather than conspiracy paranoia fantasies is the shortest route to sanity. I believe you also said that the USA banning of al Nusra is some kind of conspiracy subterfuge. I’m sure the US has secretly allied with North Korea for World dominations
har har har ahar!!! (insert madman emoticon here).
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Bernard Ross Said:
Assumings is your department. I’m not interested in hysterical conspiracy propagandas. If I want science fiction, I’ll get the good stuff.
the phoenix Said:
That’s a reasonable sentiment, and worthwhile if it could be possible. but not practical advice. The expression of which might make you feel good but has no use to global security strategic analysis.
“for no musloid is a friend of the Jews or Israel, and THIS is the bottom line.”
You reject the human being instead of the ideology – That’s more like the bottom of human spiritual development. Again emotion not tempered by reason.This is the scourge of human history , nothing at all Jewish or Muslim is expressed in your statement but something much darker and at the bottom of the human psyche.
Unreasoning or inflexible ethnic hatred is a sad and uncivilized path to follow.
Bernard Ross Said:
to be even more precise, mr ross, the bastard (literally and figuratively) that is illegally occupying the w.h. for a 2nd term, INSISTED that 10 front row seats be given to mb to attend his pathetic little speech ‘a new beginning’
as you have said, it is NOT a coincidence, it is all by design
and i totally agree with what you have said earlier on another thread, let them all kill each other!
for no musloid is a friend of the jews or israel, and THIS is the bottom line.
Max Said:
Should we assume that the US just erred each time they supported deposing the existing dictator and the MB coincidentally showed up, that the US was not expecting the outcome as it occurred, that this is the 3rd time repeating itself? All facts point towards US support of the MB in Egypt, Libya and Syria; sorry you are unable to notice those facts. Meetings were held between US and MB before the “arab spring”. The US is at this moment allying with the “syrian’ rebels who contains MB, Salafist, Al qaeda brought in by Qatar and Saudi. Stephens meet in Benghazi involved getting the arms in LIbya to Syria. This is not the first time the US has worked with the Saudis and their surrogate Jihadists(e.g.afghanistan in the 80’s). Time will tell.
Max Said:
what is your basis for accepting these allegatins as truth? the link is an NY times story yet you say MSM news is filtered. Furthermore, these allegations are not dissimilar to the same libels made against Israel in the Jenin “massacre” which turned out to be fabricated, but everyone carried the story as truth. Same with the pictures and testimony of Mohamed al dura of fame. The media has relied on local news sources without corroboration for some time. This is from the same times story.
The Nazi Muslim Brotherhood will rule in Syria–just as in Egypt and in Libya–exactly as the Anti-Semite Barack Obama administration wants it to be!
@ Canadian Otter:
Good point. The idea of giving up any of the Golan was suicide anyway. The people that wanted that should be air dropped into Damascus without a parachute.
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There is some sense in this article except that it is tainted with typical Obama-MB hysteria.
Geez Louise, everything in the ME is not orchestrated by Obama. He’s just not that powerful.
Here is some interesting news sourced from videos just out on social media – FSA just rescued some survivors of an Alawite massacre done by Assad’s ‘shabiha’ – an Alawite on Alawite massacre. The FSA that rescued them represent the moderate liberal elements mentioned in the article above.
‘The key to Syria’s future state, then, is between two broad blocs—Islamist and non-Islamist—which will work together at least for a while to defeat the remnants of the Assad regime and create a stable new government.’
Yep, so we need to quit dragging our feet and make support them so the right people win and worst of the worst get buried. The ‘battle is not lost’ as the article says – the more effort applied the better our chances.
JUST A REMINDER, FOLKS –
Do you remember when your wise and fearless leaders were talking only a couple of years ago about “peace with Syria”? Yes, and that could only mean the complete or partial surrendering of Golan. Had that occurred, what would your leaders and ‘peace promoters’ say now, as Syria unravels and any peace treaty signed by Assad would have become not only worthless, but an embarrassing proof of Israeli leaders’ lack of wisdom? (Notice my kind choice of words). What are the old promoters of land for peace with Syria saying now?
Is there connection in their minds between the principle of land for peace with Syria and the current govt pursuit of an agreement with Abbas, and his recognition of Israel? Did the govt ever respond to the question What happens when Abbas is replaced and a new govt that abrogates the agreement?