DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2012, 9:47 AM
Tuesday, Nov. 27, the Middle East military spotlight swung around from Gaza to the Syrian war with steps for the start of US and NATO intervention in that conflict. Without spelling this out, a game changer began unfolding when a joint Turkish-NATO team began making a site survey for the deployment of Patriot Air and Missile Defense Systems, manned by American military teams.
The team, said the statement from Ankara, will assess where to station the missiles and how many would be needed. It reiterated that the system is “for defensive purposes” and not for a “no-fly zone or offensive operations,” but just for use “against an air or missile threat from Syria.”
However, the Patriots in combination with already installed elements of the missile shield, will command an area beyond the Turkish-Syrian border – all of northern Syria up to and including the embattled towns of Aleppo and Homs, DEBKAfile’s military sources report.
Their presence will impede the operations of Assad’s most effective and lethal means of war against the rebels in that region – air force bombardment.
The positioning of US anti-missile missiles in Turkey coincides with the rebels’ success in destroying the Assad regime’s key air and radar stations in southern Syria and along the Jordanian border. The two thrusts add up to a coordinated military effort in northern and southern Syria to seize control of the skies in both regions from Assad’s control and push his forces back into central Syria.
A part of the US-Turkish plan affects Israel. Monday, DEBKAfile reported exclusively that in a resounding blow to Bashar Assad’s ability to fight external enemies, Syrian rebels had destroyed the Assad regime’s most important electronic warning radar station facing Israel – M-1 – Monday, Nov. 26.
This Russian-built station monitored Israeli warplanes’ takeoff and landing activities at air bases in the Negev and Hatzerim in the south and tracked them up to the Syrian border. The facility was designed to guide Syrian missiles targeting any point on the Israeli map, in sync with air defense facilities south of Damascus and on the Golan Heights. The radar’s range also covered naval movements in Mediterranean waters off the shores of Israel and Lebanon.
Western military sources told DEBKAfile that the destruction of this vital facility has blinded the two eyes which Syrian air, air defense and missile forces had trained on Israel. It has therefore crippled, though not completely dismantled, Bashar Assad’s ability to got to war against Israel, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
M-1 radar also swept all parts of Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia where the important Tabuk air base is situated. Deployed there in addition to the Saudi Air Force are French fighter-bombers ready to go to war against Syria.
M-1 also relayed current data on Israeli military movements to Hizballah and would have been a vital source of intelligence in a potential Lebanese Shiites offensive against the Jewish state.
The Syrian ruler and his spokesmen have frequently threatened since the eruption of the popular insurrection that if Assad had his back to the wall, the entire Middle East would go up in flames, especially Israel.
In the last two days, the Syrian rebels have made additional gains: They were able to capture areas abutting on the Jordanian border, excepting only the Ramtha border crossing. They also seized the Marj al-Sultan military air field southeast of Damascus and adjoining Syrian Army 4th Brigade bases.
Most of the men of the 82nd Infantry Brigade guarding M-1 were killed in the fighting, fled or were taken prisoner.
Our military sources notes that after M-1, the Assad regime still retains two key radar stations: M-2 in Shanshar south of Homs, which covers central and northern Syria; and M-3 near Latakia which keeps an eye on the northern region up to the Turkish border and the eastern Mediterranean up to Cyprus.
All three radar stations were linked to the Syrian general staff, air force, air defense, missile and navy operations rooms and fed them the essential real-time intelligence data needed for decision-making at the highest level. However, the loss of M-1 seriously hampers the Syria army’s capacity to take on Israel or Jordan.
What’s with Debka? The title sounds like exaggerated hysteria and a bit like anti-Western Russo-Assad propaganda.
Wishful thinking and propaganda bias is not objective military analysis.
I don’t think you can convince any rebels on the ground that anyone is ‘intervening’ for them – although there is some non-military aid and support for the FSA. Western influence is direly needed as it’s absence is empowering the Al queda groups.
It’s like the lessons of Mao and Castro all over again. In WW2 Mao’s guys did the fighting and so won popular support instead of the Kuomintang (So here it is Al Qaeda groups winning that support). In Cuba the USA alienated and drove Castro to seek help from the Ruskies.
But the situation in Syria is complicated – overt help from the West will invoke Islamic Hostility generally.
But Western influence and Western culture does undermine fundamental Islam and that’s why ‘they hate us’.
..
So it’s looking like Assad will fall – especially now since The FSA is now shooting down Helicopters and Jets with captured air defense missiles.
There is a lot of benefit in breaking up the power of Hezbollah and Iran.
But of course the new FSA leader is virulently Anti-Israel. What else? Even though it is righteous one devil will down the new devil will rise. but they wouldn’t matter if Israel would just wipe out Hamas and Hezbollah -In either case in the balance Israel is better off with the FSA and Iran’s power diminished.
But rank and file FSA is anti-Al queda and anti-Islamic state which means there is going to be some kind of interesting situation and struggle for after Assad falls, In fact both sides are hoarding weapons to use against each other after Assad falls. Neither the West nor Russia will want to permit an Al queda state so it will become interesting.
The Turkey move is in expectation that Assad will fall, The situation will be quite dangerous and unpredictable at that time because of Syria’s WMD – and who will use them or get them.
Black Swan events about to happen?
@ Canadian Otter:
So I have noticed. I didn’t save it and don’t remember what it was so I can’t reproduce it. It’s not the only one that never sees the light of day. lot of work for Ted to review them all and approve them, so many stay in cyberspace and in Ted’s Vault.
You know the Vault in his dungeon with moat and crocodiles guarding it.
@ yamit82:
@ J.S.:
Thanks to both of you. Whatever it is, it’s still weird, considering how the other participants regard Israel as a pariah at best -and Israelis not worthy of being in the same room with them – but at Sesame they get along just fine.
Everybody loves everybody on Sesame Street la la la…. 🙂
BTW, Yamit, your censored talkback above is still under moderation. Maybe it was subjected to Spam Filter’s disintegration ray. Spam Filter likes to have fun that way.
According to a Wiki article on “Sesame”, it is a UNESCO project — United Nations. (It doesn’t specify who’s funding it — but EU sounds likely, especially given former CERN personnel are heading up the project.
@ Canadian Otter:
Never heard of it. Sounds like a leftist Kumbaya project. Backer and sponsors not named but my guess it’s the EU.
@ yamit82:
From the world of the weird, and speaking of relationships, would it be possible for you or anyone to explain THIS?
Sesame is a synchrotron shared research facility located in Jordan, where also Bahrain, Turkey, Egypt, Iran and ISRAEL are close participants.
“Sesame not only has a rather grand new building, near the village of Allan in the hills northwest of Amman; it also has the first components that will generate and accelerate a flow of electrons. If all goes well, sometime around 2015, the energy from those electrons will be harnessed to help peer into the world of the microscopically small.”
Assuming Israel is technologically way ahead of its partners, the question is why is Israel doing this? A diplomatic back door?
This is too weird.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20446971
yamit82 Said:
Other than the rumors of using their airspace in a strike; do you think they would look to Israel to protect their asses(even if apologetic)? It they had any thoughts in that direction then the notion of a dog and pony show, for the street, takes on more credibility(or am I dreaming?). When I saw that radar system was out I started wondering if the path east was along the syrian jordanian border.
@ Bernard Ross:
The saudi Royal have come t the conclusion that they are vulnerable and can’t trust the Americans. Looking around the region the only one capable of protecting their sorry asses is us.
Israel for many years have developed a relationship with the Saudis but it’s kept for political reasons out of the public eye.
Israeli export trade to the Arab world is approaching a billion dollars. We mostly use Jordanian middlemen but there is increasing direct trade.
@ yamit82:
What does this have to do with the article?
I’ve been saying this for years, from the beginning back in 1948, the USA has been both a supporter and an enemy of Israel–one hand held out in friendship and the other held behind the back with a knife–being used periodically to reach around and stab Israel in the back.
Is this a flash in the pan or the beginning of something new?
If this is somethng new is would put recnt events in a different light and explain some things.
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=6548
yamit82 Said:
Ted went to sleep and left his filter turned on(LOL) he probably wont get to it til morning. The filter now has a life and brain of its own and refuses to take instructions.
@ yamit82:
A MUST READ! Thank you, Yamit.
And this is what the US govt can declassify! They must have been involved in much worse intrigues and betrayals that we’ll never find out.
Israelis must debunk the myth of the US govt as ally of Israel, or even as impartial arbiter. An enemy that disguises himself as a friend is even more dangerous!
@ yamit82:
THE USUAL FORMULA: a leftist and a politically-correct Jew. They wouldn’t think of having a leftist face a real Jew in a debate. The media knows that Kraut won’t overstep the allowed media boundaries. Actually, a Jew with politically-incorrect views, such as MK Michael Ben Ari, would not even be granted a visa to enter the United States, let alone debate anyone over there. (BTW, your description of Kraut fits many Israelis sitting in the Knesset today. One of them just gave the Gazans a greater chance to cross the fence into Israel.)
@ Canadian Otter:
The US govt once contemplated invading Israel.
U.S. had emergency plan for attacking Israel in 1967
Plan was aimed at preventing Israel from expanding westward, into Sinai, or eastward, into the West Bank.
Full Story:
The right to strike
A declassified study reveals that the U.S. had plans to attack Israel, and began to dust them off in May 1967. But organizational foot-dragging and the IDF’s prowess in Sinai spurred the general in charge of the U.S. Strike Command to put them back in the drawer.
@ Canadian Otter:
Ever since the Kraut supported Israels exodus from Gaza and the dislocation of almost 9000 Jews from their homes he is in my black book of non credible analysts. He has never voiced a mea culpa since, has supported 2 state solution and sat cynically through the last attacks from Gaza silent on his supportive positions that led to the strengthening of Hamas who fired most of their rockets against Israel from the exact areas Israel evacuated.
The Kraut is one of so many analysts who pontificate trusting the viewing, reading or listening public will not remember what each has said in the past. So they continue….!!!
comment filterd out and there is no apparent explanation I can think of this time. Less than 50 words no expletives and no links.
@ Bernard Ross:
I am skeptical of anything from debka even though on rare occasions they do get some right but that’s necessary, just like casinos allowing some winners.
Any damage the rebels inflict of Syrian military capabilities is to be applauded and welcomed by us. That said Syrian WMD stocks are worrisome.
If debka is to be believed it is interesting that the destroyed site is the one against Israel rather than that in the north related to Turkey. Perhaps it is the forerunner of the attack on Iran.
‘Syrian rebels had destroyed the Assad regime’s most important electronic warning radar station facing Israel – M-1 – Monday, Nov. 26.’
This is misleading. They weren’t going to nuke the moon but rather simply detonate a nuclear bomb on the moon.
NUCLEAR IRAN debate between Fareed Zakaria and Charles Krauthammer.
Sorry I’m off topic. Although this issue has been discussed enough already, here is a 20 minute audio. http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/episode/2012/11/27/can-we-live-with-a-nuclear-armed-iran/
Fareed bases his support on the principle of deterrrence and plays down Iran’s genocidal intentions. Charles’ arguments are quite solid, but he concludes that Iran can’t be stopped, only delayed long enough till they get a more rational government.
Rational like the present US government? Or like past US governments? The US govt once contemplated nuking the moon. I’m not kidding.
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/11/26/report-u-s-planned-on-blowing-up-moon-with-nuke-during-cold-war-in-1950s/
No mention was made in the debate of the fact that Iran sits right on top of an earthquake zone, or that it could sub-contract a nuclear attack.