It is, of course, way too early to get cocky. But Republicans have to be happy with the way current polling is going. In this morning’s tracking poll at Rasmussen Reports, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by a stunning 50%-42%. Rasmussen’s matchup is a rolling three-day survey and Obama announced his flip-flop on gay marriage on Wednesday afternoon. So this morning’s poll would consist overwhelmingly of people who have heard that news. Still, it is important to note that Romney was already starting to pull away before gay marriage entered the picture. Here is the history of Rasmussen’s Romney vs. Obama polling:
Romney’s surge is due to the public’s perception of Obama far more than to anything Romney is doing. Currently, Rasmussen finds that only 44% of likely voters approve of Obama’s performance, while 55% disapprove. And Obama is at his lowest point in six months in Rasmussen’s Approval Index, the difference between the number of voters who strongly approve of his performance and those who strongly disapprove:
-22 is a dismal number. Again, some of this is due to Obama’s turnabout on gay marriage, but in my judgment it owes more to voters’ deepening pessimism about the economy. As the months drag by and the economy stays awful, voters are simply giving up on Obama and his administration.
There is a long way to go until November, and no doubt we will see polls between now and then that will tilt the other way. But at this juncture, it appears that the elements are in place for a big GOP year.
@ Clinton:
Egad! He’s unstoppable!
HAHAHAHA
@ Clinton:
Hillary, I know that’s you 🙂
I want Obama to lose his relection, but the poll I dont believe, I think Obama will win just barely, thats my gut feeling.
Nate. Go back to your dreams. Like Dreams of My Father er oh or is that dreams of my real Father. Republicans always knew that Obama had no experience, was a charmer to be sure, but is no executive, and certainly not executive of the highest office in the world. He is an idealogue only and has the country on the fast track to financial ruin. He’s like a rich kid with his daddy’s credit card and no budget. @ Nate Patok:
Romney’s a loser, a lousy candidate. Wouldn’t be surprised if Obama beats him by 10 percentage points if not more. The American people will not vote a vacuous silver spoon parasite, his $1000 t-shirt wife and his creepy kids into The White House. A lot of evangelicals will not vote for the Mormon cult. Women and Latinos swing big for Obama, he could even win by a landslide. The only poll that counts is Election Day.
Barbara,
You write about generalities. I prefer the specifics of trends measured by serious professional survey research. For example. I am both Jewish and I have two university degrees. So what explains my not voting Democrat, except possibly in local elections where party labels are all but meaningless?
As for the various other minorities, most blacks do not vote at all, and certainly not the larger percentage of them residing in prisons. Nor do most “youths”, compared with other age groups, get seriously and consistently involved in politics. Remember, showing up for “Occupy” mobs is just street theater, not political involvement. In any case, most of this year’s crop of both high school and university graduates seeking steady employment, mostly with little or no result.
Women? League of Women Voter types may vote Democrat; middle-class homemaker women with families and working husbands typically are more conservative. The Spanish vote? All across the southwest, the cops typically are Mexican-American, not a few of whom would just as soon put illegal aliens from Mexico in American concentration camps, if someone were to erect them for that purpose. (To those folks, guarding concentration camps would be just equal opportunity professional employment, just as being an SS camp guard was in Nazi Germany 75 years ago.)
Also, I might remind you that one of the largest, growing and radicalized population groups in this country are America’s gun owners. I’m part of the American gun culture, and I have a friend in central Wisconsin who is getting rich selling bulk loads of rifle, pistol and shotgun ammunition via the Internet with delivery all across the USA. Americans are arming faster than you can scream “don’t shoot”. Just try to guess which side of the political line we are all on, with Barack Hussein Obama Jr degrading the office of the President of the United States once graced by the presence of Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman and all the rest of the great men who have led this great commonwealth.
All political portents that can be sliced, diced and measured — which is precisely what opinion survey research is all about — indicate that Obama and Biden are on the skids, along with the present Democrat majority in the United States Senate.
Finally, there are the big US Supreme Court case decisions now pending. The court, with its 5-4 conservative majority, is quite likely to dump Obamacare into the garbage can of American history some time this summer, and is equally likely to uphold Arizona’s law permits their state to chase down and incarcerate for deportation illegal aliens where the federal government refuses to act. Any state or local government can enforce any part of the United States Code. At least that’s the way I learned it when I studied US constitutional law at the University of Illinois back in the early 1960s.
All told, I think Obama’s show is nothing more than a totally failed presidency, and I think it will go the way of those of William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, James Earl Carter, and George Herbert Walker Bush. And that’s just the one-term toss-outs of the past 100 years.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
@ ArnoldHarris:
Obama still has the majority of the Black vote, the youth vote, the Hispanic vote, the Women’s vote, the Jewish vote,the college educated, and the Homosexuual vote. Polls are such a transitory indicator, they means little.
uh uh? Romney stinks. I’m pessimistic.
I still wish Sarah Palin had run, she’d be leading now.
The Rasmussen Report is one of the first websites I turn to each day in an American election year. I know more than a little about survey research, and because of that, I am satisfied with the stringent standards that Scott Rasmussen applies in his sample selections; “registered” voters is nowhere near as accurate as “likely” voters in measuring political trends.
Despite purportedly wide public acceptance of formalized homosexual marital arrangements, there are strong possibilities that idiotic Joe Biden, the US vice president, led Barack Hussein Obama Jr right into a one-way political mousetrap by endorsing what traditional Americans view simply as legalization of a widespread sexual perversion. Once that was done, the LGBT crowd put Obama on the spot to declare for them. Obama’s campaigns both past and present depend largely on connections to and big money from the entertainment industry of New York and California, much of which is dominated by homosexuals.
Obama now stands as the first US president to grant public acceptance to homosexual marriage. No doubt this will increase his campaign cash flow from homosexual America. But at the same time, it has instantly helped Mitt Romney solidify acceptance and even enthusiastic support from Christian circles which had been publicly nervous about supporting a Mormon candidate for the US presidency. In addition, Romney is beginning to capture support of a growing percentage of the independent voters who swing most US elections.
But Rasmussen is correct in his assertion of voters’ increasing pessimism about the economy. That, in the end, is what American elections largely are about. In any case, as he says, “the elements are in place for a big GOP year”.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI