Geo-Strategy
WASHINGTON — Israel and the United States, amid the threat of an attack on Iran, have undergone a sharp decline in their intelligence cooperation.
Officials said the intelligence communities of Israel and the United States have encountered increasing disagreement regarding Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities. They said U.S. intelligence officials have become much more careful in accepting Israeli assessments as well as reports of Iranian nuclear developments.
“These days everything is questioned, and the Israelis are being challenged on a large portion of its data,” an official said.
The intelligence decline was said to have begun in late 2011 and intensified in 2012 amid concern that Israel was preparing an attack on Iran. Officials said the White House has ordered the chiefs of the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency and other members of the community to significantly increase verification of Israeli data on Iran.
“The level of proof that is now being demanded is unprecedented, and frankly is beyond that which is sought in the U.S. community,” the official said.
Officials said the U.S. intelligence community, despite a damning report by the International Atomic Energy Agency in November 2011, was insisting that Iran has not acquired or assembled nuclear weapons. They said the community also determined that Iran was delaying any decision to use its nuclear program to produce weapons-grade uranium or warheads.
The decline in the Israeli-U.S. intelligence exchange was said to have stemmed from National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon.
Congressional sources said Donilon, believed directed by President Barack Obama, has briefed leaders of the House and Senate on a yawning gap in credibility regarding Israeli intelligence assessments on Iran as well as that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“Donilon is telling congressional leaders that Bibi is lying to Obama and saying that Israel won’t strike Iran, when we know that this is what he’s preparing,” a senior congressional aide, using the nickname of Netanyahu, said.
A key factor in the decline has been the insistence of the U.S. intelligence community for evidence that Iran was actually building nuclear weapons.
In contrast, the Israeli community has determined that Teheran would develop all the elements of a nuclear weapons capabilities while avoiding the assembly of warheads or bombs.
Officials identified the most demanding of the U.S. intelligence chiefs as CIA director David Petraeus and National Intelligence director James Clapper.
They said the two chiefs were rejecting virtually every new piece of data on Iran that was not directly confirmed by U.S. intelligence.
President Barack Obama consults with National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon.
“The feeling in the White House is that Israel is dragging America into a war with Iran on the basis of inadequate intelligence,” the official said. “This is creating a very bad atmosphere.”
Meanwhile, Israel has become a leading issue in the race for the Republican presidential primary in the United States, a report said.
The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies has determined that U.S. support for Israel marked a major concern for many members of the Republican Party. In a report, the center said U.S. support for Israel in the face of Iran’s nuclear threats was being addressed by GOP primary candidates.
“Consequently, support for Israel in the strategic sphere has become an acid test of presidential credibility on national security,” the report, titled “The Republican Primaries and the Israel Acid Test,” said.
“As such, Israel could play an important role in the presidential elections, especially in the event of a major confrontation between Israel and Iran before then.”
Authored by Israeli analyst Jonathan Rynhold, the report said the Israel issue has gone beyond concerns by either American Jews or evangelical Christians.
The report said GOP candidates, including frontrunner Mitt Romney, have been attacking President Barack Obama for failing to stand by Israel as Iran develops nuclear weapons.
American Jews comprise about 2 percent of the overall population and a maximum swing vote of 25 percent in some states as New York. The report said American Jewish support for Obama dropped significantly and beyond that of the national average.
“Still, with all due to respect to the Jewish vote, it is not the main reason that Republicans are focusing on Israel,” the report said.
“To win the Republican nomination, a candidate must capture the party base, and in the last decade Israel has become of central importance to that base.”
The report said GOP support for Israel rose sharply after Al Qaida air suicide attacks on New York and Washington in 2001.
Rynhold, a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, said GOP “sympathy” for Israel was 25 percent greater than among Democrats.
“What this means is that support for Israel in the strategic sphere — though not necessarily on all aspects of the peace process — is an acid test of presidential credibility on national security.” the report said.
“How a president handles Israel will have implications for his standing as commander-in-chief.”
The report said national security could become a key issue in the presidential campaign. Rynhold said this could include whether Washington should support an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Several polls already show a clear majority of Americans who approve attacking Iran before it develops nuclear weapons.
“In other words, the Iranian nuclear program is not only a major strategic issue in the Middle East;” the report said, “it may also turn out to be a major political issue in the American presidential election. For American Jews, it is already an issue, and President Obama appears to be paying a price.”
Jews in America should be careful. Obama understands full well the efficacy of scapegoating the Jews to quell Jewish support of Israel and Israeli disagreement. Farakhan, Wright, Black militant organizations, Acorn successor and community organizations, all govt youth organizations,academia, the democratic party base will all be mobilized as they were mobilized for his election. Jstreet will be used as a foil to prove that he is neither anti Israeli or anti Jewish. This was the original purpose for the creation of Jstreet. Dark times are ahead for US Jews as they were for German Jews before WWII. It is very easy, with one orchestrated event, to precipitate anti semitism and turn Americans against the Jews. The signs are there with the increasing anti semitism of the blacks and of academia. It is a well thought out structure and my experience has been that this is the strength of the left in their ability to create structures, finance them with govt. money, and accomplish their goals by unscrupulously using the assets they have already put in place. The jews will be blamed for dragging US into war. The ends always justify their means.
@Sid ; FDR the slimy worm absolutely knew Breckinridge Long was barring Jew( for those not familiar he was Assistant US Secretary of State. He is well known for telling US consulates in Europe in the late 1930 up until it was too late, to do anything to keep Jews who possessed legal visas to enter to US from entering the US. Anthony Cordesman who is a prominent military analysts did a 85 page analysis of a possible nuclear exchange between the Israel and Iran several years ago. He concluded Israel would definitely be the victor and Iran would cease to exist as a functioning nation while Israel would have suprisingly fewer casualties and would continue its’ existence. I believe Netanyahu is smarter than he is being given credit for. The US is paying for a substantial poriton of the Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile system cost as well as the Magic Wand missile defense system. I believe Netanyahu wants to get the maximum US monetary contribution to these 2 sytems which will protect Israel from Iranian nukes so he is “playing” Obama so Israel will have the best chance of stopping Iranian missles when the inevitable nuclear exchange takes place.
Obama is forcing Israel to choose between bowing to his pressure and their survival. Israeli leaders have not publicly made it clear to Obama and the world that they will not allow themselves to be sold out yet again by hostile American officials. By trying to paper over crucial differences Israel is placing itself in a worse position.
American Jewish leaders have also contributed to this mess by failing to point out that Iran is preparing their EMP weapon for a fatal attack on the U.S.
In the battle of public relations Jewish leaders in both Israel and the U.S. continue to fail because of their cowardice where they all fear Obama and not G-d.
1) Everything out of Washington is politically motivated,From the head Moslem on down the ranks of his appointed stooges.These anti Israel policies are instigated by the slime-ball in the White House!IN POLITICS,NOTHING HAPPENS BY ACCIDENT.IF IT HAPPENS YOU CAN BET IT WAS PLANNED THAT WAY!…FRANKLIN D ROOSEVELT.
2)Much of the permanent Washington Establishment,as distinct from the elected types,have always been biased against Jews & Israel.Breckinridge Long worked his part in helping Hitler exterminate Jews long before Obama was born(Roosevelt had to have known what Long was doing!)
3)With a few notable exceptions,most of the overly ambitious careerist who infest the political cesspool of Washington rush to where the action is.European anti-semitic elites & Arab petrolords can help a political climber in many ways.The Jews & Israel have little to offer these types.
4)What most people don’t realize(or perhaps don’t want to realize)is that Iran is in earnest about nuclear weapons.Islam is not advancing against the west,they are in decline & retreat.The Ayatollahs in Iran are not triumphal,they are desperate.Islam has been in retreat for at least the last 329 years,since the Turkish defeat at Vienna.Islam is falling apart.In the modern world,outside of a diminishing supply of oil,they have nothing anyone wants.They cannot keep their societies from crumbling!Iran,as an Islamic nation,needs a “grand slam”,a 60 yard touchdown pass!Iran needs a great equalizer to get back into the game & the Iranians know it.The Ayatollahs see Nuclear weapons as their great equalizer without which Islam is doomed.Iran’s leaders feel they have nothing to lose,they will push for the Nuclear option as their only salvation!
3)Look at it in a different way,this is not Hitlers triumphant Blitzkrieg through the Ardennes in 1940!This is the Ardennes offensive of 1944(Battle of The Bulge),Hitler’s last desperate roll of the dice to avert defeat!
@ yamit82:
That sounds highly credible.
The annual budget recently presented by President Obama proposes spending cuts to vital U.S.-Israeli missile defense projects. This comes at a point when the Iranian-supported terrorists of Hezbollah and Hamas surround Israel with tens of thousands of missiles aimed directly at innocent civilians.
The facts demonstrate that the Obama Administration is working against Israel’s security interests as the possible need for military action draws near. They have done so by publicly exposing sensitive intelligence information, including potential timing aspects of Israel’s strategic planning. The recent visits to Israel by senior military officials were not for the sake of improving defense cooperation, but rather an effort by the Obama Administration to demand a veto over any Israeli plan to launch a preemptive strike against Iran out of fear of rising oil prices and campaign concerns.
Reports I have read recently indicate that Israel was forced to stop sharing intelligence and operational plans regarding Iran because of the distrust of President Obama.
Daylight: The Story of Obama and Israel
…and U.S. intelligence is not accepted unless vetted for agreement with Obama’s wishful thinking.
I believe we’re seeing the same “echo chamber” in the US Intelligence community that we have been seeing in Obama’s cabinet. The US is being led by Obama yes-men — right into the grave.