Regional chaos might count as a win for the mullahs
By Reza Kahlili, The Washington Times
Iran’s tyrannical leaders, determined to make the Islamic regime a nuclear-armed state, are preparing for war. That’s exactly what the United States and Israel might have to deliver, and soon. @-Text.rag:Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the Revolutionary Guards in May to speed up the regime’s nuclear-bomb program and arm its missiles with nuclear warheads. Now, sources reveal, Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered the guards to prepare for war.
In a recent meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, it was decided that the possibility of an attack by Israel or America in 2012 is real and that the country’s forces need to prepare several contingencies for war. It also was concluded that in case of war, the regime could be victorious, though the cost would be high, but it would emerge as the one and only champion of the Islamic cause in the world.
The radicals ruling Iran have long believed that obtaining the nuclear bomb will make them untouchable and will facilitate the expansion of the Islamic movement in the region and the world in bringing the West to its knees. They also have concluded that because of the troubles in the world’s economy and financial troubles in America, even a limited confrontation with America would benefit the Islamic regime.
Just as Hezbollah outfought Israel in the 2006 war, Iran can claim victory against the U.S. in such a conflict, which could include attacking Israel from several fronts. But the real prize for the criminal mullahs would be that it would help the regime bring down the monarchy in Bahrain, create instability in Saudi Arabia and, most important, help the Islamists in Egypt undermine military rule. All this would occur by inciting uprisings for a war of Islam against infidels and Zionists.
The guards in their preparations have mapped out several options. One would be to disrupt the oil flow from the Persian Gulf. They know that about 40 percent of the world’s oil and the majority of oil exports of eight countries in the Persian Gulf pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that could be blocked by the regime’s forces.
The guards’ navy of speedboats armed with cruise missiles, Iran’s submarines and, most important, the guards’ missiles of various kinds could be launched from deep within Iran and still target the narrow strait.
The guards also have mapped out an extensive list of U.S. bases in the Middle East to attack with their missiles, disrupting the movement of U.S. forces and the operation of the Air Force, which the guards believe will be the main thrust of any attack by America.
For that purpose, several U.S. bases have been identified that could be attacked either by short-range rockets with a range of up to 140 miles or with ballistic missiles with a range of more than 1,250 miles. The two air bases in Kuwait, Ali Al Salem and Ahmed Al Jaber, are less than 85 miles from Iran. In Kuwait, the U.S. camps of Buehring, Spearhead, Patriot and Arifjan, with distances of 65 to 80 miles, are all within reach of the guards’ various missiles.
The guards also are targeting four U.S. air bases in Afghanistan as the main launching pads for any attacks on Iran. The Bagram Air Base, home to most of the U.S. Air Force presence in Afghanistan, is just 450 miles from the Iranian borders and within range of all of Iran’s ballistic missiles. Other air bases in Afghanistan that would be attacked by the guards in case of war are in Kandahar, Shindand and Herat.
The super U.S. base, Al Adid in Qatar, which is home to a variety of U.S. bombers and fighters, is within 175 miles of Iran and a prime target for the guards, though because of favorable relations of the Islamic regime with the government in Qatar, the guards are not sure America can use that air base for its attack and therefore will be much more likely to use its other superbase at Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates, also within range of various Iranian missiles. Other U.S. targets of the guards are the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain and Thumrait Air Base in Oman.
The guards also have drawn up plans to confront any uprising from within should one occur after the breakout of war and have mobilized tens of thousands of Basijis ready to put down any unrest against the regime.
The Islamic regime in Iran also counts on Russia and China, with which it has close relations, to come to its help and facilitate an end to war in time to save the regime. China, which holds billions of dollars in contracts and is said to have more than 11,000 contractors, mostly of a military nature, in Iran, has the most to lose in the downfall of the Islamic regime, and its officials already have stated openly that China will aid the Iranian regime in case of war.
Though the Islamic regime never should have been allowed to continue with its suppression of its people, its terrorist activities worldwide and its continuation of its missile and nuclear programs despite U.N. sanctions, one cannot imagine a world with nuclear arms in the hands of the jihadists in Iran.
With officials from both Israel and the U.S. calling a nuclear-armed Iran a red line, leaving the possibility of a military option on the table, we must realize that the only possible solution to this dilemma is a regime change in Iran, which a majority of Iranians support. The price we pay today to save world peace and security will be minuscule to what the world will pay in the not-so-distant future.
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of “A Time to Betray” (Threshhold Editions, Simon & Schuster, 2010) He is a fellow with EMPact America and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).
SSBN
Israel has become American Mandate Palestine. Be as ridiculous as you please, for as long as you wish. Israel has thrown in the towel.
With respect, don’t be ridiculous. Nobody’s going to nuke Iran. Certainly not when conventional forces are more than enough to deal with it.
If Israel did that, it would play directly into the hands of those who mock it as supposedly lusting for the slaughter of millions of innocents. Not to mention, would be responsible for enacting unnecessary horror.
Their use ultimately saved lives when used on Imperial Japan and that was a completely different situation. This isn’t nearly the same thing and you’d find the economy absolutely crippled by instant UN sanctions – sanctions you can bet would be enforced well beyond any necessity. There would be absolutely no way the US could realistically support it after something like that. It would mean Israel is no better than Iran, which is clearly false.
Force (of varying degrees) may well be required. But not a nuclear strike. Not unless there’s some sort of absolute proof Iran was on the brink of unleashing something similar. Even then, it could be dealt with by conventional means.
Bland Oatmeal,
Right now I think it is more likely than not that they will get their wish regardubg option 2. Given the fact that the US has allowed its nuclear arsenal and the means to deliver it to decay significantly in recent years, while the Russians have upgraded theirs, there is about an 80% chance in such a scenario they would completely destroy the US before it could respond. Also, the Russians have hardened their important assets to resist a nuclear attack. The US has not. Bottom line even if the US did manage to respond Russia would likely survive and still be able to conduct military operations. The US would not be able to. Essentially Russia would win easily and they know it. America’s military commanders likely know it to or perhaps they are left wing individuals who are in complete denial.
Aircraft carriers are going to be mostly useless in modern warfare. They can easily be sunk with anti-ship missles and submarines of which Russia, China, and many other countries have in abundance. As such, China is unlikely to invest much in them. As for the air craf engines, they may not need to be as good consistently given China’s lopsided edge every where else.
Even if they opt for option 1, they would not need to wait a decade. We likely have already destroyed ourselves economically with reckless spedning and debt policies. Also, the US has not invested in the proper education in the “hard sciences” such as math, science, and technology. The other major powers have opened up a huge lead on America in most areas of importance. As such, America lacks the skilled workforce, the proper infrastructure, or the fincial ability to be able to compete with the major world powrs of Russia and China in any significant way right now and this is going to be the case for the foreseeable future.
Furthermore the dollar will lose its role as the world reserve curency very soon. Its no longer a matter of will this happen. Its a matter of when. This will further hamper America’s ability to be competitive. Due to the massive national debt, struggling economy, lack of a workforce with the necessary skills, crumbling infrastructure, and the lack of financial ability to deal with any of this to the degree necessary to challenge the worl’d major powers in the near to mid term the US s done as a major world power. Good outcomes for America are still possible but its people and its leaders will have to accept this reality and work withiin it.
The US does have the advantage of distance from its enemies. We should use it to our advantage. This is especially so since we aren’t going to be able to challenge Russia, China, and especially both of them on the battlefield now or at any time in the near to mid term. We should do the following. 1.)Immediately withdraw all troops from Afghanistan, Iraq, the entire middle east, Europe, and every where they are in the world. These troops should be withdrawn as fast as our transport vehicles can ge tthem out. 2.)Redeploy these troops to our borders where they have a fighting chance to defend our country. 3.)Upgrade and expand the nuclear arsenal, the means to deliver it, early warning systems. and underake efforts to harden important infrastructure against an all out nuclear attack. This has the advantage of being cheaper than the curent conventional systems we have and it gives us a much better chance to defend ourselves. Since we don’t have the skilled work force or the financial ability to compete with conventional forces, we will need to rely more on a nuclear deterence. It also has the advantage of giving us greater utility for our national defense than any thing we are currently doing. Russia, China, Iran, and others are going to notice this and will less likely to threaten us. 4.)Develop all of our own oil and gas reserves, build more refineries, and utilitze coal to oil technologies. This will lessen our oil imports which will help to limit funds available to adversaries and potential adversaries. Also, it will allow us to have some leverage when negotiating with OPEC and others. Right now we have no leverage with them. 5.)Our immigration system is a complete mess and needs to be fixed. As such, we should place a 10 year moratorium on all immigration. This will give us breathing space to fix our immigration system and to gain control over our borders and to take some stock on whose here and who should be here. An idefinnitre moratorium should be placed on immigration from Muslim countries. It makes very little sense to invite people into your house who don’t like you and wish to harm you. America should not be expected to behave any differently.
Do the above 5 things and we will get more and greater utility for our natioal security and economic interests than any thing we are currently doing. It can be done. It will just take the proper leadership. I pary we get it right soon. Doing these 5 things and doing them quickly are most likely America’s only chance to survive.
As for Iran, it is a serious problem to both Israel and America. Israel does not have the geographic advantage America has but it has a much more robust military capability or at least the capabilities it has are more likely to be successful in a military confrontation with Iran than any thing America has. As such, the best approach would be for Iran to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat militarily without American involvement. American military assets would only be in the way and would just lessen the chances of success. The best thing for both Israel and America would be for America to GET OUT OF THE WAY!!
Obama will attack Iran only because it is his last ditch effort to rally people around him as
the “Great Protector”, just as Clinton had his Bosnia war.
Israel is now in the process of being occupied by American troops. All bets are now off, concerning independent Israeli action.
Joe, well put, agree with you. The only additions I would make is that Israel should consider the possibilities and potential opportunites of seizing the saudi oil fields. If they accomplished this goal they would end a good deal of terror financing and reap whirlwind profits. Further, as you point out the nations would go along with it if their oil supplies are maintained. They could even provide greater stability to the flow. Also, Nukes are not the only weapons=, there are biological and chemical but control is difficult.
Shhhhhhhhh: I’m on a roll. 8)
9. No need to get into a fight with China. Just offer them a cut of the goods. Israel has contacts. Defense industry contacts. A deal should not be a problem.
Most folks I discuss this with say Iran can close the straights for two weeks – a month tops.
And of course it is not like the US military hasn’t been practicing for this sort of thing since the last time it happened.
And what do you know? “Y” and I agree on something.
Wrong about relative strengths, Poster. The US is very much #1, and will be for the forseeable future. The Russians’ strength is primarily in an enormous nuclear arsenal that is perhaps more dangerous to themselves than to anyone else. The Chinese are still trying to keep their only (second-hand, old) carrier in commission, and can’t produce consistently useful aircraft engines. The US is isolated by distance from most of its enemies, has an expert workforce and enough infrastructure to outperform the rest of the world put together militarily. All they need is an excuse to get it rolling. As Dirty Harry said, “Make my day!”
The only hope any country has against the US, in the long run, is either (1) sit back and play nice for a decade or so, while we destroy ourselves economically, or (2) get the Russians to throw everything they have at us, and hope for the best.
With kook regimes like Iran and Turkey, I expect they are hoping for #2.
Joe,
I agree with much of what you said — all except suggesting that Israel build two more reactors, etc. That might be a good long-term strategy; but as it stands, I think Israel ought to garner the strength she has, and make every punch count.
The world is in the beginnings of a great depression. It has occurred to me that one reason Obama seems to be behaving irrationally, is that he’s trying to reconcile trillionaire military thinking with a billionaire budget. This is how it was in the years leading up to WWII: Every great power was economically strapped, and all the SANE governments were reigning in their imperialism. The fanatics like H and M, however, thought of this as an opportunity — just like the Iranians, North Koreans, etc. might think today. They provoked an enormous war; and indeed, in the early stages it looked as though the British and French were in deep trouble and the kooks would rule the day. As the war progressed, though, it turned out that the Allies were willing to do whatever it took to defeat H and M, and they ultimately did.
Israel cannot afford a drawn-out, costly war against Iran and, as you and Yamit have both pointed out, they are probably best advised to use a nuclear one-two punch to knock out Iran’s nukes, military, infrastructure and economy. If pushed against the wall, the US may well do the same thing in that theater. I don’t expect the Iranians to respond to this rationally. They’re trying to backpedal, pretend to let in nuclear inspectors, etc.; but none of their enemies is in much of a position to keep on playing this sort of game.
BOOM BOOM.
I’d like to see us launch an EMP attack over China if they should interfere and come to the aid of Iran.
The world’s most powerful militaries are Russia and China. The US is, at best, a very distant third behind those countries. Iran’s presitge is not being inflated. It is America’s prestige and power that are being inflated. Doing so makes the country much easier to demonize.
Most of the reporting is against America going to war with Iran. The main stream media has worked tirelessly to undercut any military option America may have had against Iran.
I agree that Israel should take out Iran without the US. Given the general poor nature of US intellegence, the fact that the US is infilitrated with Iranian agencies, and the fact that America’s air force does not have the training and expertise necessary to be able to effectively penetrate the Iranian air defense systems American participation in the operation along side Israel would undermine the prospects for success. The operation is more likely to succeed if America stays out. It is in the best interest of America that the military operation against Iran succeed.
Furthermore it should also be assumed that Russia and China will go to the mat if necessary to preserve the Iranian government. Also, I don’t envision ANY government in the nations named by the author allowing the bases in their country to be used in an attack on Iran.
An attack by America on Iran is impossible because it lacks the effective military assets to carry out such an attack successfully and it lacks the political will even if it had such assets. If Mr. Obama were to order such an attack he’d be virtually handing the election to whomever his challenger is. While America cannot and will not invade Iran, no attempts should be made to impede Israel from doing so and Israel should use nuclear warheads if necessary. The threat posed to Israel by Iran is far greater than the threat Imperial Japan posed to the United States during WWII and the US used nuclear weapons to eliminate this threat. As such, the use of nuclear weapons by Israel against Iran is justified and should be expected.
If the threat to Iran is removed, this would be a positive development for America, as well as Israel. In attempting to thwart Israrel from dealing with a mutual threat to both nations, America is and often can be its own worst enemy.
Does anyone else find it a little strange that there is so much propaganda coming out now – from across the political spectrum – making out that the Iranians are hardcore hectic militaroids who represent a serious threat to the military interests of the World’s most powerful military?
Quite clearly, Iran’s prestige is being deliberately inflated.
At least this article has a (partially) identifiable author.
Oh Gawd! “….for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards….”.
Y’couldn’t make this shit up! Let it never be said that the pro-Islamist forces in the Globalist Establishment don’t have a cynical and ironic sense of humour!
I agree. This is what the US did, and it has worked.
The sentence about the commmentary article should read “it is becoming increasingly clear the US needs Israel as much as Israel needs the US.”
The Iranians, refer to Hezbollah’s “victory”. By every legitimate criteria used to define military “victory” Hezbollah did not win the war. This is how the muslim supremacists use the barbaric thinking which began with Mohammad to deceive the west especially Israel. The Muslims who now rules almost every state in the Middle East believe non Muslim are sub human. Westerners don’t want to believe this. Just as Hitler said the Jews were similar to infectious bacteria that had to be eradicated , and he wasn’t believed , not believing what the Muslim supremacist Nazis threaten will lead to more death of Israelis , Americans and other infidels. A good model for framing how Israel should deal withr Iran is Japan in 1945 . Even after both atomic bombs were dropped in Japanese cities , Tokyo suffered 100,000 dead in one night of fire bombing ,and there was practically no buildings left standing in Japan the militarists wanted to carry out the war. It was the intervention of the emperor to brought about the surrender. I believe the Jewish people, can not negotiate with Muslims, and can not expect help from others including the US which are all addicted to Middle Eastern Oil. The Muslims look at the Jews of Israel and the equivalent of farm animals. I see no prospect that these creatures who have the morality of Nazis and are fanatic believers in a Nazi like ideology of a world ruled by a caliphate, will ever accept a Jewish run state in the Middle East. But after the holocaust even a pacifist like Albert Einstein realized that the only hope of the Jewish people surviving was to rely on no one except the Jewish people and a nuclear arsenal. It may be too late to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel can destroy Iran even if they possess nuclear weapons. They must be build another 2 nuclear reactors whose only purpose is to produce fuel for 1,000 nuclear weapons including high yield bombs and warheads. Israel possesses enough oil shale to produce as much oil as the Saudis possess. They must do everything possible to bring that oil from shale to the market as fast as possible to finance their defense and neutralize Arab and Iranian oil wealth.If there is a quarter of 250 billion extra barrels of oil available nations will at least not feel the need to assist the Islamic Nazis in their goal of Israel’s destruction. The gas fields could bring revenue to Israel within less than 2 years. Talking about stopping Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons is a waste of time. No one could stop North Korea and poor countries from obtaining and maintaining nuclear weapons. Israel is close to a comprehensive missile defense system to prevent Iran from using their bombs. A current article in commentary states Israel is in many important high tech defensive weapon categories such missile defense , UAVs overtaking the US in terms of being able to build the most advanced systems in the world. Iran is weak militarily. They could not defeat Iraq, and despite their wealth, they can’t even refine their own petroleum. Israel must treat the Muslim as the US viewed Japan. The Muslim must be so thoroughly defeated and Israel must remain so militarily powerful , they will give up their quest to murder all Jews in Israel. 35 years ago, no country expected Israel to “negotiate” their own suicide as the incompetent Muslim fool Obama and his side kick Hiliary demand . The backwards former KKK ally Jimmy Carter introduced this insane demand on Israel. Israel must reject it. Israel doesn’t need the US . Read the article in Commentary. It makes a case that despite Israel’s small size, it is becoming increasingly clear the US needs US as much or more than Israel needs the US. Bibi or whomever, she reject all agreements with organizations that don’t recognize Israel as the Jewish state and annex Samaria and Judea and evict the trespassers.
I stand by my comment #3 which is now in moderation.
Israel needs to do it w./out American help using tactical nukes. Some combination of EMP. Neutron Bombs and low yield tactical nukes.
The world at large and especially our enemies must believe that Israel will use her nuclear Arsenal against any existential threatening nation and especially those trying or thinking of entering the club of nuclear nations. It’s not enough to have nuclear weapons the enemies of Israel need to believe Israel use them if threatened and provoked.
Most countries believe we have nuclear weapons but don’t believe we have the stomach or the will to use them, thus rendering them an expensive no-deterrent. Israel must be feared and thus respected, everything else is BS.
I was opposed to the war in Iraq. However, I have no opposition to such a strike on Iran. Saddam, as evil as he was, was secular and had some degree of reason. Ahmedinejad is a true cuckoo clock.
I do not know if the USA should do it; but no obstacles should be put in the way of Israel doing it.
Everything I have read supports the fact that the main opposition groups in Iran all favor a nuclear armed Iran, in Fact they fathered the program. They are no lees Islamic than the current regime. The opposition is against the current regime for internal reasons not because a majority of Iranians favor Jeffersonian democracy.
Iran has no air force except outdated ill repaired aircraft or modern command and control the whole country is vulnerable to attack from the air.
I take what Reza Kahlili writes with rock-salt skepticism.