I also think the fall of Assad will be good for Israel but Israel must come off the fence and support those elements in Syria who reject Islamists taking over. With the aid of Saudi Arabia bring the Sunnis on board and Israel supporting the Kurds, lots of good things can happen. Ted Belman
Assad’s Fall Good for Israel
Yishai Fleisher, YNET
[..] However, the greatest opportunity to curb Iran’s ambitions is sitting on the world’s doorstep. The potential upcoming fall of the Syrian regime opens the door for Israel to finally gain greater regional stability and for the world to begin throwing off the yoke of Iranian fear.
Syria is the long arm of Iran, its striking force. From within Syria’s borders the powerful terror/political groups Hezbollah and Hamas suckle the poison milk of armament, training, and Jihad inculcation in relative safety. Syria provides the key overland route between Iran and Lebanon which has served as a conduit for the transfer of massive shipments of military hardware to Hezbollah in from Iran.
The US State Department estimates Iranian support of Hezbollah ranges between $100 and $200 million annually. Through this military might, south Lebanon has become the sole domain of Hezbollah.
Syria is also host to Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Hamas’ control room of terror. That makes perfect sense as both Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies, and Iranian proxies feel good in Syria.
But now, the Syrian regime is facing what the Iranian regime faced in 2009 – a popular revolt. This time there is also an ethnic component: Bashar Assad’s sect, the Alawites, are but a 15% of Syria’s majority Sunni population. The Syrian regime, true to its emulation of the Iranian regime, is simply killing people in the streets to put down the revolt. So far the UN believes that the assault on opposition supporters has left more than 3,500 dead in nine months. People on the ground report much greater numbers, upwards of 10,000.
In Syria, opposition forces are gathering steam. Syrian army defectors, some 15,000 Sunni conscripts, are banding together under the name Free Syria Army and are transforming the uprising into an armed insurgency. A new umbrella organization called Syria’s National Council is trying to unite anti-government groups. Even the Arab League, usually reticent to call out a member state, has strongly condemned and then suspended Syria from its ranks.
Support of Hamas will wither
However, while Syrians unite to fight the regime, and members of the Arab League feel the pressure of the Arab street, China and Russia have shown support for Assad’s grip. In early October, Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution blaming the Syrian regime for the escalation of violence. Syria has long been Russian’s main ally in the Middle East and Russia maintains a naval base there. China fears instability in a region that sells it oil. Both Russia and China also have important economic and geopolitical interests in Iran and do not want its power diminished.
But even the Chinese and Russian wall is destined to crumple. Ausama Monajed, an adviser to the president of the Syrian National Council, was quoted in “The Atlantic” saying that “The only thing saving the regime so far has been that Russia and China were prepared to block any resolution against Syria at the Security Council. But now it has become clear that the Arab League will use its leverage with Russia and China to persuade them to back their position and not use their veto power, and it is clear that neither Russia nor China would compromise their position with the Arab League, particularly Saudi Arabia, just to save Assad.”
So far the Arab Spring may have benefited Iran overall. Majid Rafizadeh, an Iranian-Syrian Fulbright scholar and columnist for Harvard International Review, wrote on Fox: “In terms of the nuclear proliferation, the events of the Arab Spring seem to have benefited the Iranian regime due to the fact that it has diverted the attention of the international community from Iranian nuclear development to the socio-political transitions in neighboring Arab nation.”
That may have been true up to this point. But with the upcoming fall of the Assad regime Iran’s power will be weakened, at least locally. The pernicious overland route between Iran and Hezbollah will be hampered or broken. Hezbollah will have to go at it alone and maybe face its own Arab Spring down the line. Without the Assad-state, the Iranian backing of Hamas and Hezbollah will wither and leave the terror proxies more vulnerable to an Israeli attack as well.
And for those who fear a Hezbollah preemptive strike on Israel, Michael Young from the Lebanese English paper The Daily Star argues that Sunni and Christians in Lebanon will balk at the idea of Hezbollah taking Lebanon into a war against Israel on behalf of Iran. Without Assad’s regime to control these groups, Hezbollah will have hostile elements at its rear preventing it from attacking Israel as an Iran proxy.
Hopefully the effects of a successful Syrian uprising will spread even farther. Maybe the fall of Syrian dictatorship will re-inspire the Iranian people to try again, to stand up to despotic violence and throw off the yoke of Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad once and for all.
No one knows what will replace the brutal Assad regime: A Jihadist junta, a drawn out civil war or, or even the eventual rise of a freedom loving society. But it is certain that breaking the Syria-Iran axis will benefit Israel and the world also stands to gain through any weakening of the ambitious Iranian war machine.
I’m trying sending in fragments. Part I was blocked. Now I’ll try Part II:
The Russians are also sending their only aircraft carrier into the fray. I doubt that they intend to confront NATO aircraft head-on; but I do expect that they will be using their ships AND aircraft AND land installations in Syria, to spy on Israeli as well as NATO air movements.
Although it’s becoming clearer and clearer that NATO plans a Turkish-led attack and occupation of Syria, the maneuvering there will put a crunch on any Israeli plans to directly attack Iran. During the 1967 war, Israeli aircraft massed over the Mediterranean for the shock assault against their enemies, because they have essentially no land area to do this over. In an assault against Iran, they can only mass over covertly friendly Arab states without detection. Besides this, Assad has already announced that he will attack Israel if NATO attacks him; and Iran is likely to unleash its HAMAS and Hizbullah proxies against Israel, using Syria as an excuse, to forestall Israeli action against itself.
None of this looks good for Israel, which has had a liveable (howbeit cold, but that tends to be good in the Middle East) relationship with Assad. It will come out of this hobbled in facing the real danger of Iran, faced with an increased presence of outwardly friendly but actually hostile American forces, and confronted head-to-head with belligerent Turks at its border. This is a good time to pray for Israel.
Try again (Part I):
Military sources in the Gulf report that 150 Iranian Revolutionary Guards specialists had landed at a military airport south of Damascus on their way to Lebanon to join Hizballah which began bringing its rockets out of their hideouts.
I got spambotted again. This time, I committed the sin of… posting. I think I experienced less censorship in Communist China.
Military sources in the Gulf report that 150 Iranian Revolutionary Guards specialists had landed at a military airport south of Damascus on their way to Lebanon to join Hizballah which began bringing its rockets out of their hideouts.
The Russians are also sending their only aircraft carrier into the fray. I doubt that they intend to confront NATO aircraft head-on; but I do expect that they will be using their ships AND aircraft AND land installations in Syria, to spy on Israeli as well as NATO air movements.
Although it’s becoming clearer and clearer that NATO plans a Turkish-led attack and occupation of Syria, the maneuvering there will put a crunch on any Israeli plans to directly attack Iran. During the 1967 war, Israeli aircraft massed over the Mediterranean for the shock assault against their enemies, because they have essentially no land area to do this over. In an assault against Iran, they can only mass over covertly friendly Arab states without detection. Besides this, Assad has already announced that he will attack Israel if NATO attacks him; and Iran is likely to unleash its HAMAS and Hizbullah proxies against Israel, using Syria as an excuse, to forestall Israeli action against itself.
None of this looks good for Israel, which has had a liveable (howbeit cold, but that tends to be good in the Middle East) relationship with Assad. It will come out of this hobbled in facing the real danger of Iran, faced with an increased presence of outwardly friendly but actually hostile American forces, and confronted head-to-head with belligerent Turks at its border. This is a good time to pray for Israel.
Historically, Syria has had only fleeting moments of independence. For by far the greater part of its history, it was ruled from Turkey, Egypt and Iraq. It looks as though Turkey will take over after any NATO-led attack; and I cannot imagine Turkey being less of a threat to Israel than Assad.. That said, Israel cannot line up alongside Assad, seeing that Obama seems eager to kill him. “Sitting of the fence” seems to be the only sane option. Meanwhile, Israel has bigger fish to fry in Iran.