Poll: Likud looking strong.

A recent poll among Israeli Jews only showed the following seat count;
32 [27] Likud
26 [13] Labor
18 [28] Kadima
10 [15] Yisrael Beiteinu

I think we are seeing the demise of Kadima. If Kadima folds half of its seats will go to Likud and the other half to Labour. This is good news for Likud. What happened to Yisrael Beiteinu?

Also the new Social Action party got only 4 seats from Jewish would be voters.

October 1, 2011 | 33 Comments »

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33 Comments / 33 Comments

  1. “I’ve no interest in perfecting newer & better crutches; I want to help your legs to become strong again.”

    So you are against pain relief because it is a crutch?

    Not “against” it; re-read what I said, and don’t put words in my mouth.

    The issue is a matter of focus.

    If Dr Mechoulam (or anybody else) wants to address symptoms, fine. There are, however, serious side effects to the application of THC-based substances that medicine does not (yet) understand.

    — In any event, I’m interested in addressing the root of the problem; that’s where the cure is located.

    YOU say there is “no cure” at this time — but I know for a fact that this is untrue.

    The changes are triggered by emotion. And the emotion is created by trauma.

    No. The emotion causes the trauma.

    I’m not speaking of physical trauma. When I use the word, trauma, I am alluding, quite pointedly, to emotional trauma: The emotional response to the experience cuts powerful synaptic pathways.

    Only about 20% of the population is susceptible to long term PTSD. The rest “get over it”.

    Translation:
    That’s as far as the researchers have gotten, given the length of time they’ve had to study it in a systematic way.

    Under “normal” first world conditions only about 10% of the population has a long term PTSD problem. And most of that stems from child abuse.

    News Flash!
    Childhood comes before adulthood, not only does the trauma have the tenderness of childhood (and the lack of a child’s defense development), working for it, but ALSO the trauma has had longer to be compounded (by the very, compulsively reactive behavior that it induces) — and longer, as well, to hide and/or camouflage itself — by the time adulthood rolls around. Wherupon the compounding CONTINUES unabated.

    But the condition does not truly go away on its own — for anybody.

    And it’s far more common than most people suspect.

    It’s more apparent in combat veterans, TBS, because of the obviously more horrendous experiences they frequently undergo — but to one degree or another, it is a condition which very few persons, in or out of military service, escape. . . .

    Did you study any of the links I sent?

    “Study” any? — no.

    I did read a couple of them though, yes.

    For such an expert in the field…

    FYI: “Expert” — “Experiment” — “Experience”

    — all have the same root; there’s a reason for that.

    Think about it.

    …it is rather a surprise that you have never heard of Dr. Mechoulam.

    If I were interested in relieving pain, I might well have heard of him.

    And if he — or, for that matter, present company — were interested in applying a cure, then, no doubt, the two of you would’ve heard of names I likewise could drop; SFW?

  2. So you are against pain relief because it is a crutch? A novel way to practice medicine. Have you informed the medical schools that they are doing it all wrong?

  3. So? The changes are triggered by emotion. And the emotion is created by trauma. Now if the wound was “real” and the indications were that the pain was permanent – life long medication would be indicated. But if the wound is in the brain? Well the pain can be discounted as “emotional”. BTW you are ahead of the U.S. NIDA. They still prefer euphemism “environmental factors” to using the word “trauma”. And you are aware that it is genetically mediated aren’t you? Only about 20% of the population is susceptible to long term PTSD. The rest “get over it”. Under “normal” first world conditions only about 10% of the population has a long term PTSD problem. And most of that stems from child abuse.

    Did you study any of the links I sent? For such an expert in the field it is rather a surprise that you have never heard of Dr. Mechoulam.

  4. “I see where you have gone wrong. You equate emotion with not medical.”

    No.

    I did not say there was no connection between the two.

    Try re-reading what I wrote (but this time, use a fan to blow the smoke out of the room, so you’ll be able to read the words as I wrote them):

    “It’s an emotional condition with medical & chemical (and other) ramifications.”

    But where PTSD is concerned, it is always the emotion — the shock, the trauma — that comes first; the stress improperly reacted to. It cuts new synaptic pathways, like putting a deep scratch on an LP record (you do recall those quaint creations? I think they were all the rage ’round the time the polar ice cap was forming; there’s a rumor that they came after something called “78’s” & “45’s,” but that’s likely to be sheer folklore).

    First comes the emotion, then comes the chemical & medical consequence — which can, in turn, acquire a life of its own, via the compulsive “re-living” of the violative experience; hence, the compounding of the traumata, leading now — all-the-more automatically — to the aggravation of the chemical & medical condition.

    And you know where else you went wrong? Your knowledge stopped improving 5 or 10 years ago.

    Oh, FAR longer ago than that. (It’s all been downhill since my Bar Mitzvah; and that’s when “Ike” was President.)

    But then, the dangers of post-hypnotic suggestion have been known for — quite literally — millennia.

    They are the stock-in-trade of demagogues, con artists, lynch mobs, dictators, etc, etc, etc.

    [T]he effects may be epigenetic, i.e., can affect the next generation.

    I have long suspected that

    — though, unlike yourself, not in a positive way. . . .

    I’m sorry if all this bores you.

    It doesn’t bore me, Simon, but I do find it a distraction where PTSD is concerned — as well as a serious danger (subjectivity to post-hypnotic suggestion, and more): to which many people, on both sides of the divide, are utterly oblivious.

    I have found it fascinating for the last 15 or 20 years.

    Yes, I’ve gathered that — and, too, that you are, thus, perhaps too emotionally & spiritually invested, over time, to take seriously the admonitions I’ve been sending your way.

    — Too easy, under the circumstances, to write them off as nothing more than the tight-assed, unenlightened paranoia of an addled crank who watched Reefer Madness once too often.

    “The top scholar in the field…”

    With all due respect, PTSD is not a problem for scholarship. As I’ve tried to show you, the condition has its roots elsewhwere.

    “… is an Israeli. Doesn’t that at least pique your interest? Dr. Raphael Mechoulam.”

    The mere fact that he happens to be Israeli? — not in and of itself, no.

    Jews are the People of the Book — and Israelis tend to be Jews (Du-uh!). Jews have always been big on book-learning , so it hardly comes as a surprise that a major researcher in his field turns out to be Israeli. (Scarcely 2/10 of one percent of the world are Jews, yet Jews have been awarded 20 percent of all Nobel Prizes. Not so many to Israeli Jews, TBS — but that’s politics, pure & simple.)

    Look, Simon, Dr Mechoulam is a chemist (no doubt, a very good one; certainly a most accomplished one). I’m happy for him — sincerely — if he’s discovered a lot of chemical things about marijuana and contributed to the world’s understanding of its chemical properties & propensities. Good for him. Mazal Tov. Yashar koakh.

    But PTSD is not susceptible of a chemical cure, because its sources — its causes — are not chemical at their core.

    Therefore, there’s nothing about smoking (or otherwise ingesting) THC — or any other substance — that will prevent somebody from developing NEW traumata in consequence of sustaining new stresses.

    I’ve no interest in perfecting newer & better crutches; I want to help your legs to become strong again.

  5. Ah. I see where you have gone wrong. You equate emotion with not medical. Au contraire my friend. There are changes in the amygdala and hippocamus and the genes involved are mostly known. Look at the work done by B. Lutz on mice at the Max Planck Institute.

    And you know where else you went wrong? Your knowledge stopped improving 5 or 10 years ago. There has been an explosion of new data since then.

    In addition the effects may be epigenetic i.e. can affect the next generation.

    Net-net? Cannabinoids ingested can make up for “missing” cannabinoids.

    You might also wish to get up to speed on the latest PTSD research. “Amygdala” and “hippocamus” might be helpful additions as well as “genetics”. “PTSD Amygdala” “PTSD hippocamus” and “PTSD genetics” should give you a fair start.

    I’m sorry if all this bores you. I have found it fascinating for the last 15 or 20 years.

    Really. The top scholar in the field is an Israeli. Doesn’t that at least pique your interest? Dr. Raphael Mechoulam

    “PTSD Dr. Raphael Mechoulam” is another good one.

    Nice 10 minute starter video with Dr. Mechoulam.

  6. “Maryjane never did a damned thing for anybody’s PTSD: because she doesn’t address the trauma in “Post-traumatic” — she only distracts you from the trauma, while simultaneously lowering your threshhold of susceptibility to post-hypnotic suggestion. In some ways she’s a trip from frying pan into fire.”

    Did you learn that from a newspaper or direct from the ministry of propaganda?

    Neither.

    Most regrettably, Simon, the newspapers take your view — not mine — these days. If you didn’t know that, perhaps you need to start reading them again, after so long a hiatus. Things have changed since the Sixties. Weed is no longer about Rebellion.

    It’s about Conformity.

    You know, the opposite side of that same, counterfeit coin.

    Whom or what do you identify as the “ministry of propaganda”? — I’ll have to check them out.

    There is no known cure for PTSD at this time.

    Not known perhaps to medicine.

    But then, PTSD is not a medical condition. It’s an emotional condition with medical & chemical (and other) ramifications.

    I know of a man whose work has cured thousands of American GI’s of PTSD

    — and without putting them in thrall to substance abuse OR subjecting them to the tender mercies of zoned-out religious cults, etc.

    They’re no longer suicidal; no longer afraid to go home to their loved ones, for fear of what they might do. They’re grounded and real and safe to be around.

    The best you can do is make the patient comfortable.

    As I said above, “she [M-J] only distracts you from the trauma…”

    Regrettably, however, not all ‘comfort’ is healthy OR wise.

    Pot seems to do the best job of [making patient comfortable] with the fewest side effects.

    The best job of “distracting you from the trauma”? — but again, as I said above, “…while simultaneously lowering your threshhold of susceptibility to post-hypnotic suggestion.”

    If you don’t think that is a serious side effect (and I could cite others, but that one’s enough), then you are a little too fond of being stoned, Simon, to see the problem.

    You might want to check with Dr. Raphael Mechoulam should you actually care to learn something.

    If he’s as good a scientist as he’s said to be, he’ll eventually come round to sharing the very concern I’ve been imparting to you; though God knows how much damage he’ll have facilitated before that happens.

  7. Did you learn that from a newspaper or direct from the ministry of propaganda?

    There is no known cure for PTSD at this time. The best you can do is make the patient comfortable. Pot seems to do the best job of that with the fewest side effects.

    You might want to check with Dr. Raphael Mechoulam should you actually care to learn something.

  8. “You are aware of the program to get veterans who want it Kef (we like pot over here) for PTSD? I did a bit on PTSD and pot a while back…”

    Maryjane never did a damned thing for anybody’s PTSD: because she doesn’t address the trauma in “Post-traumatic” — she only distracts you from the trauma, while simultaneously lowering your threshhold of susceptibility to post-hypnotic suggestion.

    In some ways she’s a trip from frying pan into fire.

  9. “As dweller says… A contract must be honored by ALL parties. If one violates the contract, the other party must recoup its interests by whatever means are required.”

    Agreements are BS… You can’t compare civil agreements to those between nations…

    Then why enter into such agreements at all?

    It all boils down to the perceived interests of the parties to adhere to those agreements and if they do it’s because of interests of the parties and their relative power to each other… Relative power dictates adherence to bilateral agreements.

    Precisely the kind of argument which Mohammad used to justify his making — and then dishonoring — the Treaty of Hudaibiyya: and the consequent massacre of the major Jewish communities of the Arabian peninsula.

  10. It explains why the talk of a “march through Sinai” has been happening. In 6 to 9 months 1/4 of the Egyptian population will be starving.

    good.

    I think what you were looking for is: Most unfortunate.

  11. yamit,

    You are aware of the program to get veterans who want it Kef (we like pot over here) for PTSD? I did a bit on PTSD and pot a while back. Featured an Israeli Dr. who works with Americans. Dr. Raphael Mechoulam. Probably the most knowledgeable person on earth re: the chemistry and biology of the CB1 and CB2 systems. I’m about 20th. Light on the biology though. I’m an EE after all.

    PTSD and the Endocannabinoid System

    I have another one about American work. In the next comment.

  12. Can’t imagine to whom you are referring in the first part but re; Egypt:

    Egypt.
    As dweller says… A contract must be honored by ALL parties. If one violates the contract, the other party must recoup its interests by whatever means are required.

    Agreement are BS. It all boils down to the perceived interests of the parties to adhere to those agreements and if they do it’s because of interests of the parties and their relative power to each other.

    You can’t compare civil agreements to those between nations. Relative power dictates adherence to bilateral agreements.

  13. It explains why the talk of a “march through Sinai” has been happening. In 6 to 9 months 1/4 of the Egyptian population will be starving.

    good.

    Rejoice not at thine enemy’s fall – but don’t rush to pick him up either.

    Jewish Proverb

  14. True to the point of pain.
    Regretfully, the “STRONG” mantra of the LIKUD and the “PEACE” mantra of the unJews, MAPAM-MAPAI, combine…. in the israeli fashion, (combinot), AKA coalitions and or some form of “unity governments” and then proceed to deliver WEAKNESS in place of STRENGTH (LIKUD), and MAYHEM in place of PEACE, (MAPAM-MAPAI).
    The bottom lines are clear for all to see. “Thousands of victims of peace” and huge “painful sacrfices” prove the point.

    We have identified that for over a decade and offered solutions including structures replacing the present “combinot”.
    We found that most of the “patriots” prefer to pretend to do it FROM WITHIN, in reality meaning to get in there and pretend to be changing something… yet to be defined, while just joining the cauldron.
    There are two small groups merged into one still organized for the job.
    We need people willing to join and move the plan into action.

    Egypt.
    As dweller says… A contract must be honored by ALL parties. If one violates the contract, the other party must recoup its interests by whatever means are required.

  15. “Israel made tangible concessions to Egypt in exchange only for promises.”

    If one party to a contract reneges on the deal, the other party is thereby RELIEVED of his own obligations to perform as promised

    — or of any duty to refrain from taking back whatever he can of what he gave up pursuant to the agreement. . . .

  16. Stupid Israelis, Stupid likud!!!

    Israel made tangible concessions to Egypt in exchange only for promises.

    Israel — which had repeatedly been the target of shipping blockades, military assaults and terrorist attacks staged from the area — made far greater economic and strategic sacrifices in giving up the Sinai than Egypt did in normalizing relations with Israel. While it received additional U.S. aid for withdrawing, Israel gave up much of its strategic depth in the Sinai, returning the area to a neighbor that had repeatedly used it as a launching point for attacks. Israel also relinquished direct control of its shipping lanes to and from Eilat, 1,000 miles of roadways, homes, factories, hotels, health facilities and agricultural villages.

    Because Egypt insisted that Jewish civilians leave the Sinai, 7,000 Israelis were uprooted from their homes and businesses, which they had spent years building in the desert. This was a physically and emotionally wrenching experience, particularly for the residents of Yamit, who had to be forcibly removed from their homes by soldiers.

    Israel also lost electronic early-warning stations situated on Sinai mountaintops that provided data on military movement on the western side of the Suez Canal, as well as the areas near the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Eilat, which were vital to defending against an attack from the east. Israel was forced to relocate more than 170 military installations, airfields and army bases after it withdrew.

    By turning over the Sinai to Egypt, Israel may have given up its only chance to become energy-independent. The Alma oil field in the southern Sinai, discovered and developed by Israel, was transferred to Egypt in November 1979. When Israel gave up this field, it had become the country’s largest single source of energy, supplying half the country’s energy needs. Israel, which estimated the value of untapped reserves in the Alma field at $100 billion, had projected that continued development there would make the country self-sufficient in energy by 1990.

    Israel also agreed to end military rule in the West Bank and Gaza, withdraw its troops from certain parts of the territories and work toward Palestinian autonomy. The Begin government did this though no Palestinian Arab willing to recognize Israel came forward to speak on behalf of residents of the territories.

    In 1988, the Jewish State relinquished Taba — a resort built by Israel in what had been a barren desert area near Eilat — to Egypt. Taba’s status had not been resolved by the Camp David Accords. When an international arbitration panel ruled in Cairo’s favor on September 29, 1988, Israel turned the town over to Egypt.

  17. Can anyone explain why so many people still support Likud? Likud is like Kadima in slow motion – and frequently like Labor too (recent Migron midnight expulsions). Same goals, they just take a little longer to get there in order to confuse voters, characterizing themselves as “right wing” to stay in power. It’s deception on a national scale. How can anyone be comfortable with MKs who betray their own party platform? How can anyone still believe their words?

    And the obvious question: After what happened to the peace treaty with Egypt, why would any Israeli government still pursue another land-for-truce treaty with an even more unstable entity next door?

  18. I will certainly not vote for the Likud if Netanyahu still leads it.

    Lieberman is also acting like someone who has received new orders from his (NWO or Russian) handlers. If Danny Ayalon takes the lead, Israel Beteinu could be a better choice than the Likud under Netanyoyo.

  19. Any Israeli who considers themselves right of center, whatever that means, should dump the Likud prostitutes and go with a truly right wing party.

  20. If you want to eliminate unstable governments, going to a 5% threshold isn’t the way to do it. That only disenfranchises people. What you really have to do is eliminate coalition government. Direct election for PM/President who then nominates Ministry Heads and the Knesset votes on each ministry head individually. Same thing for Supreme Court nominees. Eliminate the minimum threshold and add a second house which has district based elections. Create responsiveness to the votes by making the PM/Knesset sit for a 3 year term ( which is the average time between elections in Israel anyway ) and have half the districts up for election every year with district reps sitting for 2 years.

  21. I saw the likud poll before courtesy of you. My point though is that Kadima is neither fish nor fowl and it will split. Do you agree? Netanyahu will offer cabinet posts to part of Kadima if not all to join him in the next coalition. They will replace Labour. According to both polls, Likud will be the largest party and will be asked to form the next government.

  22. Sorry Ted but that is what I have seen.

    Meanwhile lets not forget that elections are apparently far from being imminent and Labor has right now only seven/eight seats.

    Barak will be not longer a factor as polls numbers coincide on that.

  23. Sorry to say that the Poll in question seems to be known only to Labor or like people.
    I have seen the polls effected by strategists in the LIKUD, (I am a veteran member of its Central C), and those polls do not even remotely show the numbers shown above.
    It looks like another of them “polls’ fabricated by MAPAIniks trying to refloat the dump.
    I have in front of me other polls.
    LIKUD 29-30
    Israel Beitenu 17-18 (-)
    Labor 15-16 (+)
    Livni: 13-14 (-)
    Shas 12-13
    Islamics 10-11
    NU/NRP 7-9
    TORAH 5-6
    Meretz 4-5
    Greens Social 3-4 (+)
    There is a block of undecided.

    For the time being I will stay with the ones I know.
    Israel Beitenu is slowing down but not much.
    Livni is sinking but will not go down yet.
    Meretz and Socials may gain a couple of seats.
    MAPAI may go slightly higher.

    As of now it does not appear to be a way for a left coalition.

  24. Kadima is losing strength because it was never anything other a personal vehicle of Ariel Sharon. People like parties with clearly defined differences and Kadima’s straddling the fence has won it no friends. Kadima’s left will probably rejoin Labor and its right will probably rejoin the Likud.

  25. Ehud Barak will probably retire. No one likes him. We’re looking at another coalition government because of Israel’s absurd 2% PR threshold rule. If it had 5%, stable majority governments would more likely be the norm.

  26. Kadima seems to be sinking (slowly but surely) into oblivion. What else would you expect from a party with a non-entity like Livni at the helm? Looks like more than half of the Kadima voters voters will go back to the Likud, with the rest going to the Labor.

    The overwhelming najority of voters in Israel (including the young) are to the right of the political spectrum. People have come to realize the falsehood of the “peace process” and its false messiahs – the Israeli left. And contrary to what the biased Israeli press tells you, life in Israel is still good.

    Given how things are going now, Bibi will complete his four year term, and be reelected. Let’s just hope that with the other right wing parties he is able to establish a clear-cut majority without selling out to Shas and the other ultra-orthodox blackmailers. It seems like wishful thinking, but you never know.

  27. If this is the same poll I saw a few days ago, Labor, Meretz and Shas gained at the expense of Kadima and Beitenu. No tremendous change, so far as the old splits go. Unless the voters pull a BIG surprize, it will be another coalition — more backscratches and compromises, more national weakness. If Beitenu doesn’t sack him, Lieberman will still be in the running. Ehud Barak will have to retire or change parties…

    Livni, whom the Obama crowd have courted so diligently, will be a big nothing. The real opposition will be the new Labor Party and, to my eyes, a bunch of unknowns. Washington will have to start all over again, courting Quislings. That’s the good news — IF there are early elections.

    I don’t know how the coalitions will work out. If the voters lean one way, it would become Labor-Kadima-Meretz. If they lean the other way, , it will be another Likud-Shas-Beitenu. It’s a credit to Israel, that Shas and Beitenu have behaved themselves these past years and gotten along. I’ll bet Obama gets angry, every time he thinks about it.