A new Senate bill aims to suspend military aid for 2012 until Egypt holds free elections and guaranteed full civil liberties.
By Haaretz and Reuters
Egypt has warned the U.S. not to pass a new Senate bill that aims to suspend military aid until Egypt certifies its full functions as a democracy, the Washington Post reported on Friday.
According to the report, 1.3 billion dollars in aid for 2012 will be suspended until Egypt holds democratic elections and guarantees civil liberties.
The Washington Post quoted an anonymous source who said that Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr asked U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and other U.S. officials to intervene. According to the source, the U.S. officials “know the value of the partnership between the United States and Egypt and how much such conditions and language would be detrimental to future cooperation.”
The U.S. has been pressuring the Egyptian government, saying it hoped the emergency law – widely seen as a tool of repression under ex-President Hosni Mubarak – would be scrapped sooner than the military foresees next year.
The military council said on Tuesday that parliamentary elections would start in stages from Nov. 28, and invited candidates to start registering for the poll from Oct. 12.
I worked on a drilling barge in the middle of the Red Sea. We were replacing old oil pipes clogged with silt with new ones on existing wells drilled by Italian companies before 67 war. According to the Canadian engineers I spoke with, they claimed that the potential of Sinai off shore oil was at least as great as Iran. This fact may have a bearing on American policies in the last year or so with Egypt. I also worked for a while at Alma field. By withdrawing from Sinai, Israel gave up:
The homes of over 7,000 Israelis
The Alma Oil Field, valued at over $100 billion. Israel would have had energy independence had they held on to it.
More than 170 military installations
Dozens of early warning stations and strategic defense locations
Thanks Begin, Sharon and Likud. I don’t forget or forgive and neither should any Israeli.
I agree with you on this and it may come to be so.
I seldom introduce political names to my comments if not absolutely required.
And yes, I stand on Israel’s side under all conditions. None waived.
Further. In today’s setting I doubt that anyone can handle the fry as well as the coalition is doing.
Others may have their own opinions but in reality neither mine or other opinions amount to much.
NOBLE: I asked my brother PhD Economics and Attorney at Law to send me a report on the company.
His Studio has offices in Buenos Aires, Montevideo, Miami and London.
My last ten years of work were dedicated to the Israeli Chemical industry, in particular with the petroleum and derivatives sectors. Other sectors as well…
Israel has been testing petroleum from its own sources for years.
When the Northern power plant was designed to operate primarily on natural gas, over a decade ago, we already knew about the fields.
As to corruption. The sector and the state are not more corrupt than anyone else.
And they will squeeze our money as much as they can. Such is life.
Israel has explored in minute detail the fields. inland and off shore.
I hate to remember that we squandered the Sinai/Red Sea oil fields when the stupid leadershit made “peace” with Sadat. That is also part of the Israeli scene.
Today we are talking about vastly larger fields of our own.
I bet on Israel.
Israel should have awarded the concessions to the Russians. Nobody would dare mess with them , not Turkey and not Iran or Hezbollah
Sorry I can’t accept loyal bravado with the country led by BB and likud. How many times can one yell wolf and be humiliated by every country powerful and weak. You know the saying that they pee on you and you call it rain? That’s BB and likud, that’s Israel today. I say this with deepest sorrow and regret, but let’s be honest.
I always bet on Israel. And in this case I even give the Turks a handicap.
They do not have even a legal stand on Cyprus let alone its economic zone.
As to their military. It is massive. Good soldiers. Yet. Alone they cannot hold a thing except against poorly armed gangs and even those have been holding up to them for many years.
Russia and others would love to level the playing field there.
So far the Turks have danced and posed but no “ektion”.
I would rather not have to have it out but if need be…
Much trouble for a small company
Noble Energy, a US concessionaire of Israel’s gas fields, moved its only rig from Israeli to Cypriot waters, where Noble also holds a concession.
The company is hardly profitable, with vastly inflated earnings, and it cannot finance gas exploration on a significant scale. Yet corrupt Israeli officials chose not to annul its license and they have done over the years with a number of domestic companies, especially in shale oil exploration.
Instead, the Israeli Navy and IAF are preparing for a confrontation with their Turkish counterparts over the rights of a near-fake company to drill not even in Israeli, but in Cypriot waters.
Fake threats from Netanyahu
Turkish Navy approached several Israeli commercial ships in Mediterranean, ordering them to change course. Israeli response? IAF jets flew over the incident areas. Oh yeah, that’s supposed to frighten the Turks. Feeble government did not even send Israeli jets to overfly Turkish Navy vessels, a standard maritime threat short of military confrontation.
NATO washes its hands over Turkey
The NATO chief said that maritime tensions between Turkey and Israel are a bilateral matter which does not involve the alliance. What? The NATO armed Turkey, props it politically, trains its forces, and now says it is not responsible for the Frankenstein? The NATO is obliged to defend its member, Turkey in this case, in case of attack, an Israeli attack in this case: would the alliance once again flout its charter?
So much for Israeli politicians, including Lieberman, who view NATO membership is a security guarantee for Israel.
Conflict of interest in Israel gas exploration
One company, Noble Energy, drills both in Israeli and Cyprus waters. In all likelihood, it is the same gas field, which Israel calls Leviathan. The wells are very close. At some point, the company will have to decide which wells it prefers to exploit, Israeli or Cyprus’. And despite some claims from Turkey, exploring wells off Cyprus, a EU country, is a much safer bet for the Noble than drilling in Israeli waters under the threat of Hezbollah.
It is more likely than not that the Noble would opt for extracting Israeli gas from Cyprus’ wells and exporting it to third-country markets.
Turkish warships harass Israeli freighters. Israeli missile boats off Cyprus
Doesn’t look like either NATO or the USA has any leverage over Turkey. Without Turkey there isn’t much left to NATO.
In this game of Chicken between Israel and Turkey my money is on Turkey.
When prople ask if “Israel will survive” they carefully set aside the fact that survival of Israel actually means survival of nearly 6 million Jewish people. Again.
And the answer is then. Rigidly said.
Not even remotely we will allow that question to come to be reality.
I dread to think what will happen worldwide if those islamic maniacs are not set back into control before they even try.
Turkey is getting very close to doing something that what the remains of Turkey will forever regret.
Mr. James Clapper and the US Commander in Europe apparently failed to convince the islamic beast to cool it and are now moving in to molest Israeli merchant marine vessels and patrols.
I presume tha the US and Nato will close in and knock some sense into the idiot in Ankara before it is too late…
I agree with you.
Really daunting but then again top grade military minds thrive on such scenarios.
Turkey is a problem for sure.
I am glad I refused to train some officers from Turkey on the use of certain lab test gear. That was when Israelis thought that the Turks were “allies”.
Yet the Turks have in The Kurds and Armenians as well as the Greeks and others very many military problems, not to mention the Russians that do not want the Black Sea outlet through Turkey, the Sea of Marmara and the Dardanells outside their control and have little use for the Turks as a whole.
A well armed nation could deliver a single blow to Southern Turkey from which they will never come back.
James Clapper and the US Commander in Europe visited Erdogan recently. Both are known to be visitors used to deliver very heavy messages…
Egypt is armed well but is also a don of the Nile. Lake Nasser is the largest man made lake in the world and is contained by a single dam. Very poor strategic condition.
Iran outside some 250 rockets that can do heavy harm, is irrelevant in modern warfare.
NOW, if they either get nuclear bombs from the Turks, Pakistan or made a few themselves then to problem is serious.
Syria is a very sore item with its WMD’s. Also Hezbollah. On this Israel has very little elbow roon. Up to them if they decide to vanish from the world.
As you said. Very though times ahead.
I did not mention the islamics in Gaza and Y&S. Not strategically relevant.
Can Israel Survive?
Victor Davis Hanson
The country has never been in more danger.
Will Israel survive? That question hasn’t really been asked since 1967. Then, a far weaker Israel was surrounded on all sides by Arab dictatorships that were equipped with sophisticated weapons from their nuclear patron, the Soviet Union. But now, things are far worse for the Jewish state.
Egyptian mobs just tried to storm the Israeli embassy in Cairo and kill any Israelis they could get their hands on. Whatever Egyptian government emerges, it will be more Islamist than before — and may renounce the peace accords with Israel. Read more
Russia Sends Nuclear Subs To Patrol Cyprus Waters – Report
Russia has sent two nuclear-powered submarines to patrol Eastern Mediterranean waters around Cyprus and enforce the island’s right to explore for undersea oil and gas in its territorial seas, according to information from Defencenet.gr, citing a Russian FM spokesman.
Israeli economy seen growing 5% this year
The growth rate is more than double the OECD average.
26 September 11
Israel’s GDP will grow by 5% in 2011, compared with 4.8% in 2010, according to predictions by the Central Bureau of Statistics reported today in “Selected Data from the Statistical Abstract for 2011”.
Israel’s growth rate this year is much higher the average growth rate of 2.3% in the OECD. The Central Bureau of Statistics forecast is also higher than the Bank of Israel forecast of 4.7% growth.
More importantly, the Central Bureau of Statistics predicts business product growth of 5.7% in 2011, up from 4.8% in 2010. Analysis of export data shows that diamond exports will grow by 20% and industrial exports will grow by 5%. There will be no growth in tourist services (a services export).
Consumption growth will slow to 5.1% in 2011 from 5.3% in 2010. The standard of living will rise by 3%. The Central Bureau of Statistics predicts 13% growth in private consumption per capita of durable goods (vehicles, furniture, and appliances), considered a good measure of the standard of living, and a better measure of the standard of living than consumption of non-durable goods (such as food and medicines), which are more essential.
Public consumption growth has risen over the past four years from 1.9% in 2008 to a projected 3.4% in 2011.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news – http://www.globes-online.com – on September 26, 2011
It also makes Israel a target of not only the Arabs and Muslims but by all the major world powers and some minor ones as well (See Libya) and now Turkey and Lebanon. Israel will need to invest considerable resources in Naval and Air protection. Establishing bases in Cyprus is one scenario. “Cyprus and Israel should join forces”
Cypriot Energy Service director Solon Kassinis raises the possibility that Israel could protect its Block 12 concession.
Noble Energy, Delek reach partnership deal on Cypriot license
Delek Drilling and Avner agreed a 30% stake in Block 12, across the the Israeli-Cypriot maritime border from Leviathan.
I read with great interest the comment of Sara Sue.
As to freeing ourselves of the US choke hold.
Israel can, once our oil and natural gas fields go into full production, about 4 years from now, do that elegantly. The US SD knows that well.
That is why the US is not holding back Turkey as they are the US State Department peons on that gambit. The US SD and the present administration as a whole will try their best to cut into Israel’s oil and gas fields.
In turn, Russian submarines are reported to be taking positions around Cyprus to protect them and Greece thus also giving us some freedom of action.
The US must remove the nuclear bombs from Turkey. That is a key sign of the US real intent.
Israel should phase out all American aid within 3-4 years and put as much pressure on Congress to defund Egypt as well.
Economic and Strategic Ramifications of American Assistance to Israel
With the Camp David accords, the United States inaugurated an assistance package to Egypt, linking it to Israel’s, making the countries the two major recipients of US assistance over the years. Egypt’s military and economic assistance has maintained a consistent rate of 66 cents for every dollar Israel receives.6 The reduction of aid to Israel in the 1990’s brought a reduction of US aid to Egypt by a commensurate amount.7
History and experience point to the likelihood of a continued correlation between aid to the two countries, although no guarantee to this effect was ever signed. Jordan receives significant assistance from the US as well, with a projected $700 million in grants to the Hashemite Kingdom projected for 2011. This assistance dates back to the Jordan-Israel peace treaty and while it is not at the level of US assistance to either Israel or Egypt, it is one of the largest US aid packages granted to any foreign country. Grants to Egypt and Jordan are not all designated as military, in contrast to Israel. Yet in effect, this difference is immaterial, since designating funds for civilian use frees available allocations toward military purposes.
The IDF must nevertheless invest considerable resources in maintaining battle readiness in the event of an outbreak of hostilities. The “cold peace” with Egypt, coupled with the fact that it borders no country other than Israel which has a strong army, has left Egypt free to develop its modern efficient army. In addition, the great uncertainty regarding the country’s foreign policy in the aftermath of the Mubarak era means that the IDF must be prepared for any eventuality – even one of very low probability – of a defensive war on either the Egyptian or the Jordanian front.
The stronger Egypt’s and Jordan’s armies become, the more resources Israel must direct toward countering the potential threat. With Israel’s comparative disadvantage in terms of relative population (over ten Egyptians for every Israeli), maintaining a qualitative advantage in equipment and weaponry is critical. Therefore, for every military purchase of Egypt’s, Israel must spend a greater amount in order to maintain the balance of power. Raphaeli estimated in 2005 that for each dollar of military aid to Egypt, Israel must spend between 1.6 and 2.1 dollars in order to maintain its qualitative military advantage, yet receives only 1.5 dollars for every dollar invested in Egypt. Some of the resources invested in order to stave off a potential Egyptian threat are deployed on other fronts as well. Raphaeli estimated that for every dollar of American aid to neighboring countries which translates into support for their armies, Israel needs to spend between 1.3 and 1.4 dollars in order to preserve the balance. In this sense, Israel has a lower return on investment than Egypt for every dollar spent, due to the greater amount of military goods it must acquire. Not only does American assistance not provide Israel with an economic advantage, it requires Israel to expend additional amounts from its own internal security reserves.
The benefits of Israel’s grant are thus greatly diminished, and perhaps canceled out altogether, if weighed beside the costs which accompany America’s aid to Israel’s neighbors.
The theory that Egypt can be “enticed” to maintain its peace agreement with Israel over time is far from certain; there is always a looming chance that it will act otherwise in accordance with its perceived geopolitical interests. With the American aided fall of Mubarak and the apparent rise in power of the Muslim brotherhood the likely of a war with Egypt has increased exponentially and will require Israel to invest additional billions in additional training with increased manpower and military procurement. Reducing Egypts ability to continue military arms procurement from the USA will aid Israels security and reduce the expenditure over time to Israel.
Great summary, Sarah Sue.
I hope all this is not wishful thinking. The State Dept and the oil/gas lobby have had their way for many, many decades (since the discovery of oil in S.A.). Just like the Foreign office and Quai d’ Orsay who control many aspects of British and French foreign and economic policies.
If anybody wants to know what are the far reaching consequences of the 2010 American elections, this is the best example so far.
The Tea Party decided that the old ways of Congress can not continue. Most people know that they stand for smaller government and going back to the Constitution of America. What is less known is that they are also demanding accountability from our government.
America has given billions of dollars in aid to nations for various reasons. The main reason should always have been to further American interests. Somehow this Golden Rule has been ignored and American government including the President and Secretary of State have decided that their pet agendas were going to dictate American foreign policy. Remember Honduras? Our conduct in their affairs was shameful. Remember Libya? What American interests were at play in that debacle? Except now we have to worry about the huge weapon caches that have fallen into the rebels hands. Will they try and shoot down American planes? Who knows. We stuck our noses into a bad situation and made it one hundred times worse. Who was our enemy, a crazy Muammar Gaddafi or unpredictable ‘rebels’ in bed with terrorists with no idea how to run a county?
The newly elected Tea Party Representatives and Senators are putting a stop to giving to governments that are not our friends. Egypt is poised to elect an islamic party, the muslim brotherhood, that is in no way our ally or Israel’s. Our newly elected Congressmen are not blinded by the politics of the past. They see clearly that enabling a country like Egypt to follow in the footsteps of Turkey will only spell disaster for the entire region including a real possibility of war.
Now we come to the crux of the matter. Egypt was barely able to feed their people under Hosni Mubarak’s rule. He borrowed millions and relied on Western aid to provide to most basic subsidized food to the citizens. The economy was bad, but it seemed stable. Now, all that infrastructure in gone. No businessmen in their right mind wants to trade or invest in Egypt. Importing and exporting goods have ground to a standstill. Tourism is nonexistent, especially after some yokel released a statement saying that tourists were going to have to follow islamic rules of dress (no swimming suits, no immodest dress of any kind). Egyptians are on the verge of starvation and there in no one that is interested in the mundane problems of governing.
Yet with all these realities about to come crashing down on their heads, the Egyptians feel that they can threaten the United States if they withhold aid, even if it is military aid. Why do they feel they can do this? Because, for the first time in their history, America is holding them accountable.
Hosni Mubarak was able to receive aid because he maintained a cold peace with Israel. But he allowed his countrymen to engage in some of the worse anti-Semitism the world has ever seen. All Jews have had to leave and the few that remain are persecuted mercilessly. With most of the Jews gone, they have gone after Coptic Christians. There is no freedom of speech, no freedom of religion, no freedom of the press. America is vilified and hated almost as much as the Israelis.
Now that Congress has decided that turning a blind eye to the bad faith actions of this needy country cannot continue. There has to be some accountability. No longer will we allow countries to vilify us on the one hand and get aid with the other.
Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has told Congress on no uncertain terms, that they need to stop meddling in the diplomatic relations she has maintained with hostile countries. Congress has answered right back that her way needs to be challenged. What has she achieved? What American interests have been furthered or protected? What insanity dictates that we give to a country that feels free to burn the American flag and our President in effigy? Why would we give to a country that constantly threatens our tried and true ally, Israel. Everybody knows, except the Egyptian, that if Egypt attacked Israel, is it a dead man walking. Who is kidding who?
I am proud of my newly elected congress. I am waiting, with baited breath, for the 2012 elections that will put even more liberals and RINOs out of office. I am proud of the way they are standing up for our country and putting our enemies on notice.
Egypt can threaten all they want. But at the end of the day, they are a paper tiger, hoping that a little saber rattling will make America back down. Good luck with that, Egypt. You do not know who you are dealing with. It is only going to get worse for you. The liberals have lost, now real Americans are in charge. God bless America. God bless Israel.
Sorry Mohammed. In the US, the Secretary of State does not control Congress.