By Barry Rubin, PAJAMAS MEDIA
Time is not against Israel, but against the Arabs.
Since much of what I write about regional politics seems pessimistic, I periodically remind people why I’m an optimist, at least when it comes to Israel.
Even today, Israel’s security situation is as good as or better than it has been since any time since the establishment of the state. The two main threats have always been either a potential attack by most or all Arab armies or a high level of successful cross-border terrorism.
At present, though, by Israeli standards, these two threats are relatively low. The immediate problem is rocket, missile and mortar attacks from the Gaza Strip. The longer-term threat – that seems to be continually postponed – is an Iranian nuclear capability.
On the level of threats from states, the problem is relatively minimal. The Saudis and Gulf Arabs, whose economic support would be vital in any confrontation, don’t want war with Israel. The same applies to Jordan. Syria is militarily weaker than ever and entangled in a revolution the effects of which will convulse the country for years whatever the outcome.
Muammar Gaddafi’s likely overthrow in Libya won’t usher in a friendlier regime but will reduce the sponsorship of international terrorism arising from his personal ambitions.
Similarly, Iraq has dropped out of the conflict and turned inward, while the Kurdish-ruled sector in the north is friendly toward Israel. A new addition to that short friendly list is the Republic of South Sudan.
What of Iran? The “Arab Spring” may be a victory for Sunni Muslim Islamism but for that reason is an Iranian defeat. Teheran’s ambition of being hegemonic in the Middle East is blocked since it can no longer hope to become leader over the majority Sunni Muslims.
Its rival, the Muslim Brotherhood, is the single most powerful force in Egypt, has “stolen” Hamas from Iran, and may do the same with Syria.
Moreover, Iran is taking far longer to get nuclear weapons than expected due to technical and other problems. The regime also faces potential internal revolt. Of course, Iran is a legitimate Israeli concern but the threat today is far less than it was expected to be several years ago. The likelihood of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear installation has also dropped sharply.
This leaves Egypt. For the moment, the military regime wants to maintain the peace treaty. That could change when an elected government comes to power, especially with a strong Muslim Brotherhood contingent in parliament.
The most likely president, Amr Moussa, doesn’t like Israel but he is also experienced and pragmatic enough to avoid a confrontation, even though he is also demagogic enough to talk tough. Egypt is going to be a problem for Israeli security but it might be manageable.
As for non-state actors, to the north, Hezbullah is having trouble controlling Lebanon. The loss of its Syrian patron and growing Sunni-Shia tensions make its task tougher. Hezbullah doesn’t want a war with Israel now or during the next few years. The threat must be closely watched and no assumptions made, but that front should remain relatively quiet.
The big problem is Hamas, especially as it tries to leverage Egypt into a conflict. Nobody is going to throw Hamas out of power and it will periodically send barrages of missiles and rockets into Israel. Yet if this is Israel’s main security problem it is hardly existential.
A third intifadah is also possible but would be far costlier to the Palestinians than to Israel.
Whatever the UN General Assembly decides will change nothing on the ground. The Fatah- Hamas conflict won’t go away and the demographic issue is totally phony. Israel’s intelligence and counter-terrorism are in good shape.
Time is not against Israel, but against the Arabs. They are splintering rather than uniting.
Each country faces some level of civil war between Islamists and nationalists, monarchies and oppositions, and religious-communal groups.
We are going to be seeing more assertive Kurdish (in Syria and Iraq) and Berber movements (in North Africa). The Sunni-Shia rift is heating up. Two Islamist blocs will contend, sometimes violently as we have seen in Iraq. True, both sides hate Israel but they are hardly likely to cooperate against it, and neither has a superpower ally.
The vision of a united Arab or Muslim world wiping Israel off the map – or making a serious effort to do so – is as distant as always, more distant than it was from the 1950s into the 1970s. The Arab Spring is in fact the start of an internal Arab political winter: 20 to 40 years of fighting over who will run each country.
While they fritter away money, resources and energy, Israel will continue to advance economically and militarily.
Disastrous populist, radical nationalist and Islamist domestic policies will also slow Arab development and widen Israel’s advantage. I do not rejoice at the Arab world’s self-made misfortune. A prosperous, happy, moderate and democratic Arab world at peace with Israel would be a wonderful thing. But that won’t happen. Neither will there be a prosperous, united, radical Islamist world at war with Israel.
As for Israel itself, when one gets beyond all of the usual self-flagellating self-criticism, it is a strong country in both economic and military terms. Israel has weathered the international economic crisis better than any other developed country. When Israelis have time to bicker over housing and cottage cheese prices, it’s a sure sign of an improved security situation and relative consensus on “foreign conflict” issues.
There are, of course, no lack of problems and threats. Yet Israel is in good shape when compared in strategic terms to every other country between Morocco and Pakistan – and even in social and economic terms compared with virtually every European country.
The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center (www.gloria- center.org). He is a featured columnist at PJM (http://pajamasmedia.com/barryrubin/) and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal.
I’m with BlandOatmeal on this one.
I agree with everything Barry Rubin writes above, except that I see him as being far too sanguine about the Iran nuke issue. Maybe he has some inside info that the rest of us don’t have, but barring that, I only interpret his remarks on this topic as “whistling in the dark”.
Building nuclear arms is a 66-year-old technology. Today, anyone with a MA in nuclear physics from any number of reputable universities has the theoretical knowledge necessary to build a bomb.
I realize that building a bomb is not something someone does in their basement. This requires a whole industrial infrastructure, a legion of scientists, engineers, and technicians.
But that said, consider the case of North Korea. They are poor and friendless. A serious sanctions regime has been applied to them. Yet, they have apparently built a bomb, or at least come very close. And, they have the requisite missile technology, something they are apparently helping Iran with.
Iran has plenty of money to bribe/buy the necessary talent and materials. The sanctions against them are of only limited effect. They seem to want a bomb pretty badly, and while I only have access to the open press, the impression I have is that they are in fact pretty close.
Israel may have the means to take down the Iranian nuke program with an overt strike, but such a strike will almost certainly lead to a regional war in which at least a few Americans in the area are going to get killed, a huge spike in the price of oil, and a major and very unwelcome shock to an already unstable world economy. An Israeli strike carried out without U.S. support/approval may nonetheless be effective in shutting down the Iranian program in an immediate sense, but the larger consequences described above mean that absent U.S. support, such an act on Israel’s part will give Obama exactly the excuse he’s been waiting for to end the U.S.-Israeli “special relationship” (whatever that’s been worth since he’s been in office). He’ll put the screws to Israel like nobody’s business; the pro-Israel Congress will be largely muted by the economic effects of this scenario.
So, for now, Israel is stuck with spy vs. spy, “cloak and dagger” operations aimed at slowing down the Iranian nuke program. The hope is that such operations will buy enough time until we get a serious U.S. president who will support Israel in a manner at least approximating that of a genuine ally, and the “heavy lifting” can then be done.
This issue is the one place where I believe Mr. Rubin is engaging in a bit of wishful thinking, but otherwise, I believe he is on the mark.
The Palestinian gambit at the UN is a desperate move, and may indeed lead to a third intifada and a big shootout that will, in the near term, give Israel a big black eye in PR terms (as usual), but this is the “last hurrah” of the PA. I think they’ll be through after this. Israel may be in for a hard time politically/diplomatically in the immediate wake of upcoming events here, but will wind up in a better position two years from now.
As to the other local/regional threats, outside of possible Iranian nukes, these are largely empty threats. Israel’s neighbors are broke and starving. They have no Soviet Union to back them up, like in the old days, and they cannot afford to fight a serious war. The only conventional threat of any consequence facing Israel right now is Turkey…but even here, I think if the Turks are dumb enough to make a move on Israel, they get their heads handed to them. And, I suspect that Israel’s new friend, Greece, would be happy to dig into Turkey’s flanks if given the opportunity a fight with Israel may provide. For all their bluster, the Turks have to know this.
BlandOatmeal Said:
There’s always the off chance Iran will nail Saudi Arabia first.
I too am optimistic about Israel. I have been quite involved since Desert Storm. There are real Jews who live outside Israel. I am one of them and have wanted to come home for some time now. Eventually I will. But my work here isnt complete yet and I still have alot to learn. I get fed up with the gentiles and my heart gets crushed again when a Jew behaves badly. Israel is my hope and joy and she gives me purpose to Fight the Good Fight.
Iran is enriching uranium to 60%. Nothing to fear — just extinction, misery and exile for the Jews of Israel. Don’t worry, be happy (sarcasm).