When an enemy gives insight into his strategic thinking, it pays to listen. A Hezbollah member of Lebanon’s parliament, retired Brigadier-General Walid Sakariya, predicts that Israel will be destroyed by a “Shiite crescent” in a war with hundreds of thousands of deaths. This war, he says, can only commence once two things happen: Iraq is absorbed into Iran’s bloc after a U.S. withdrawal and the Syrian regime is saved.
Sakariya says that Iraq is blocking plans to destroy Israel by acting as a “buffer zone.” Once U.S. forces completely leave, Iraq will fall to the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, permitting Iranian forces to march through its territory. A “Shiite crescent” is created, bringing together over 100 million people in a war against Israel, he explains. He recognizes the high cost of such a conflict, and predicts “hundreds of thousands” of “martyrs” and the use of nuclear weapons by Israel. To Sakariya, the prize of destroying Israel is worth that price. The war hasn’t started only because Iran’s bloc anticipates more permissible conditions.
However, Sakariya concedes that the plan to destroy Israel requires preserving Syria as a member of the “confrontation” bloc and adding Iraq. Iran has undoubtedly made achieving these objectives its top priority.
“If Syria, as a confrontation country, fails, America and the Zionist enterprise will be victorious,” he said.
The Iranian regime quickly dispatched the Revolutionary Guards to Syria to help the Assad regime cope with the uprising against it. Joint commander centers were built in Homs and in Damascus International Airport. Iran is spending $23 million to build a Revolutionary Guards base at an airport in Latakia by the end of 2012. It will be able to host planes that can deliver up to 40 tons of weapons each. Defected Syrian soldiers claim that Iran and Hezbollah are behind the executions of disloyal troops, and Iranian snipers are active on the ground.
Iran’s proxies are working hard to force a complete withdrawal of U.S. military personnel from Iraq in order to open up the opportunities mentioned by Sakariya. In June, the number of U.S. casualties spiked to the highest monthly level since 2008. The U.S. blamed the attacks on Iran, and top officials publicly warned of reprisals. Three Iranian proxies were responsible: Kaitab Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and the Promised Day Brigade, a group that split from the Mehdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr, who is also pledging to renew his jihad if U.S. forces stay.
Moqtada al-Sadr fled to Iran when the surge began. There, he earned the title of Grand Ayatollah. The Iranians clearly want to use him to lead the Iraqi Shiites. In April, he threatened to “escalate military resistance” if U.S. forces stay past the end of the year, and one of his aides said, “We are all time bombs and detonators at the hands of Moqtada al-Sadr.” He recently declared that any non-combat U.S. soldier in Iraq will be considered a legitimate target. “Whoever stays in Iraq will be treated as an unjust invader and should be opposed with military resistance,” his online statement reads.
There are strong obstacles standing in the way of Sakariya’s vision. The Iranians are undoubtedly employing every method and every technology they can to save the Assad regime in Syria, yet the protests continue to grow. Defectors claim that many more soldiers are deserting than is being reported. One defector said that 4,000 soldiers defected in Damascus alone, and hundreds of others have been imprisoned for refusing to shoot civilians. A Syrian opposition site claims that over 22,000 soldiers, including 7,000 officers have been jailed for disobeying orders.
In Iraq, Iran has been forced to downscale its proxy warfare. Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that there has been a “dramatic reduction” of Iranian-backed attacks in recent weeks because of joint U.S.-Iraqi operations. The Iraqi government seems certain to authorize an extension of the U.S. military’s stay, with the U.S. offering to keep 8,500 to 10,000 troops in the country.
The Iraqi political environment is also unfavorable to Iran. Over 40 percent of Iraqi Shiites view Iran’s influence negatively, and only 18 percent view it positively. In the last elections in March 2010, the cross-sectarian bloc led by Iyad Allawi? , a pro-American, secular Shiite, came in first place. The bloc of Prime Minister al-Maliki, who authorized offensives against Iranian proxies, came in a close second. The parties most closely aligned with Iran were defeated in a landslide.
Hezbollah MP Sakariya has done the West a favor by outlining the ambitions of the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis for the region, and identifying the linchpins of its strategy. If the fall of the Assad regime and the continued presence of the U.S. military in Iraq is what the axis is fighting against, then that is exactly what we must fight for.
One of the nice things about blogging is we can easily express really radical opinions without the necessity of defending them too personally. Bill Levinson’s solution will work but is not selective enough for modern warfare. My invitation to the General is, “Why wait, General?” If you guys can do it, give it a try. You have nothing to lose except your collective lives. Being a martyr is actually overblown, Sir. And besides, I frankly believe you would avoid martyrdom. You would leave that to the hundreds of thousands of poor shmucks who would die on your command. You, Sir, will run and hide in a rabbit hole or a pile of cow dung to preserve your life so that you can live to see what little is left of the area of the world in which you now live. Do the world a great favor, General. You and the other Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Ahmadinejabs, Assads, Omars, and Erduguns, fight the battle at the very front of the lines of war, and let the other poor shmucks line up behind you. I know, I know. You each think that your sorry tushes are more valuable than the others and that without your leadership, they don’t stand a chance. That is a cop out, General. Without your sorry leadership there would most likely not be a war anyhow, and lots of people can get on with there lives after you are gone. You are aligned with the wrong group, General, and you guys all need to wise up. The last Persian empire did not last long, and the first fell upon the rocks of the shores of Greece defended by a very few good men. What do you think, General? Are you going to give up every thing you have won and built for yourself in your life to create a new Persian empire? I don’t think so, General. You would not like the result. Salahadin had success in defeating the crusaders in Jerusalem and against Egypt, but, then, he was a Kurd and a truly enlightened General and leader of men. Maybe you guys win, maybe you don’t. We’ll see. But why wait, General?
They hide behind their women & children, Bill…
Your proposition is doomed without the prior assurance of support from a substantial component of MSM.
And we know that’s not in the offing.
An assumption.
In the universe of geopolitics, sometimes you don’t get to choose whether there will be ‘intervention.’
Sometimes the only choice you get to make is WHO will do the ‘intervening.’
Actually, it’s quite the REVERSE: The corruption typically comes first. ‘Power madness’ is merely an (attempted) escape from the consequences of corruption.
As is often the case, HCQ, American pressure certainly played a part; however, it’s fair to say that in this instance, the US State Dept’s tamperings would’ve been unavailing had it not been for Israeli internal rot that not only permitted, but virtually invited, it:
Sharon’s turnabout on Gaza seems to have been more directly the result of pressure from his ruling coalition’s leftish Attorney General, Menachem Mazuz -— who favored the girush [“disengagement”], and who was targeting Mr Sharon (and his son, Gil’ad) for investigation on charges of financial corruption, bribery & influence peddling [the “Greek Island Affair”]. On 14 June 04, Mazuz elected to close the case without criminal proceedings, for “lack of evidence.”
Suddenly now -— with, in fact, the most curious abruptness -— the PM was startlingly hell-bent on evacuating all Jews from Gaza (and northern Samaria), by gum & by golly, and by hook or by crook: indeed by any means necessary, and without a moment’s delay. A referendum of his own party revealed 65 percent rejection of the proposition. So, undaunted, Mr Sharon simply proceeded to dismiss enough opposed cabinet ministers & committee members to end up with a parliamentary majority of supporters.
The overwhelmingly left-leaning, Israeli news media promptly went into overdrive cranking out pronouncements assuring all-&-sundry that there was now “massive” popular support for giving the gentle revenants the bum’s rush -— while Mr Sharon insisted that there was just “no time available” for a popular plebiscite on such a matter of existential national import. Nor, incidentally, has there ever been a plebiscite to this day -— six years hence — in regard to any other proposed withdrawals; though we’re constantly told that the Israeli populace ‘favors’ such further self-banishments.
All of which just goes to show that there’s never time “available” to do it right -— but there’s always time available to do it over.
It also goes to show that there’s corruption -— and then there’s corruption. And that Arab culture (notorious though it be for the phenomenon) hardly has the market cornered in that department.
Then, too, as Martin Sherman [The Politics of Water in the Middle East (Macmillan), etc] has argued, there is a PATTERN to be noted in Israeli politics, wherein such reversals as Sharon’s have resulted from
“a brutal, unrestrained assault on those elected to office, along with a coordinated common front embracing legal, media and academic related components, designed to subvert the will of the people as expressed at the polls. It was an assault that distorted the facts, suppressed the truth, silenced dissent and ridiculed dissenters…”[MORE]
[Martin Sherman, “Into the Fray: Distorting democracy,” Jerusalem Post, 28 July 11]
The reality is that might DOES make ‘right.’
Perhaps that oughtn’t to be the case — but the reality is that
strong nations survive: to grow, to transform, to flourish.
Those without strength (think: Tibet)
get to be remembered with nice bumper stickers and charming, tearful, midnight, candle-lit processions.
@ Rick:
You need to ask?! Who did he visit? Muslim Brotherhood. He would have embraced Hitler too if he could.
@ cali:
I agree – may it be impeached, tarred and feathered as the Founding Fathers’ had decreed to be done to all TORIES!
Anything is better than what we have in the White House. This Administration has been supplying money (akin to Condolence Reich) to Israel’s enemies. Also we can thank Obama for helping the “Arab Spring” to take fruit AFTER he visited the Muslim Brotherhood.
@ ligneus:
Laura Said:
Does being Pro-American and Pro-Israel require ignoring reality? Heaven forbid one find another way to fight islamic ideology. This is a different kind of enemy and perhaps requires a different approach. Can the USA afford to invade every muslim country who’s leadership we don’t like? Obama/Soros seems determined to replace fallen secular leaderships with more radically Islamist governments. Do you trust what will replace Qadaffi or Assad considering the current U.S. administration’s cozy ties to islamists?
I will not have my loyalty to my nation, nor my appreciation for Israel, questioned after Israel just spent the entire weekend absorbing multiple acts of war and Israeli leadership, pressured by my arabist government, apologized for responding to attacks. I would never have counseled Israel to apologize for self defense.
I think Sharon was a fool for disengaging and he did so with pressure from my government. Was disengagement in Israel’s best interests long term? My government pressures Israel to become weaker and your leadership goes along with it and has gone along with it for years. And you think I’m the problem. You think I’m anti-Israel? I’m anti-pussified whipping boy Israel.
HCQ Said:
I agree with you. The USA can no longer afford to maintain its empire. Europe and Japan will need to pay for their own defence. NATO is a cold war relic. Their was a quid pro quo though. the USA would foot the bill for the free world’s defence and in return the USA had strong free trading partners and allies.
None of what you have said though answers my question: what war has the USA fought on someone elses’ behalf?
We are the only ones scapegoated for every terrible thing on the planet.
We went to war because jihadists are waging war against us. I remember when Israpundit commenters were pro-Israel and pro-American. Now we have the likes of HCQ.
Iran is fighting the US in Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Gaza, Egypt, Somalia and no one should be surprised but in Yemen, Tunisia, Sudan, probably in South America and Mexico as well and all this probably with the undercover assistance or approval of Russia. Iran use autochhtones and few advisers.
That is why the US is stretched thin and wasting soldiers and destroying its economy. Al Qaeda allied with Iran is achieving some of its goals.
Islamists are undermining the US from inside and Obama does not care.
Targeting Iranian Basijs and war machine would destroy the head of the snake and deflate every single conflict and help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The question is WHY is the US adopting this mindless strategy?
So far Iran is winning in the chess game and will not allow Assad to fall which may explain the decreased activity in Irak against the US. Many more thousands of Syrians will die.
cali Said:
I loathe Obama. He is tyrannical and a Soros puppet. I didn’t vote for Obama or McCain. Voting for either of those stooges would’ve brought the USA to exactly where it is today. Keep buying into left-right paradigm. I’m looking elsewhere.
Laura Said:
O please, permanent victim, keep thinking you’re the only ones on the planet. The U.S. has stuck our nose in the affairs of many nations even when it wasn’t necessarily beneficial to us. We’ve intervened solely to press our being a “superpower”. A nation becomes corrupt when it becomes power mad. We’ve become an arrogant nation where we thought might made right.
Andrew Said:
We pay for S. Korea’s defense, Japan’s defense, Europe’s defense…The U.S. didn’t need to get involved in Libya but France, Italy, and the U.K. wanted it. We’ve stuck our nose in the affairs of other nations for too long; we end up making things worse. Because of NATO we feel obligated to enjoin conflicts simply to preserve alliances even if the conflict isn’t in our interests. It’s time to let other nations be responsible for their own defense and the success of their own political systems. U.S. troops need to come out of Europe, S. Korea and Japan. U.S. troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. needs to stick to defending our waters, shores and borders not those of other nations. When the U.S. withdraws from Iraq, Iran will try to step in, so we’ve made things worse there. We stuck our nose in Kosovo. Thanks to the U.S. Israel’s leaders are constantly pressured to give way to demands that are not in Israel’s best interests.
No one would be able to blame us for anything if we would stay out of the affairs of other nations.
I find it interesting that Obama’s promise to vacate Iraq and Afghanistan, stop fighting and to pull out our troops out was and continues to be a linchpin of his foreign policy. Surely he has access to intelligence reports that confirm what Hezbullah predicts above. This poses the question: Which side is Obama on?
I think we can guess what he means by this.
Why should we have an actual principled conservative when we can have a fake conservative who panders to stealth jihadists. HCQ, who needs you here, you are a nuissence and are not pro-Israel. I hope Ted bans you.
Bill Levinson said,
I like it. It’s catchy: “What would Putin do?” is even better — lots of alliteration with the ou – u – o sounds.
HCQ Said:
Which war has the USA waged on someone else’s behalf?
Hezboll[o] delenda est.
@ HCQ:
Project much, re-circulating talking points set out by your man in the White House, and the complicit media?
Get used to the fact that Obama is on his way out, which is a very good thing!
ligneus Said:
Why? So Sarah Palin can lose? Face it, she’s a know nothing that regurgitates talking points. I know we’re supposed to vote for her because she’s pretty and has breasts and a vagina, but she really is annoying. The USA is going broke and can’t afford to wage anymore wars on anyone else’s behalf nor can we afford to keep doing everyone else’s dirty work.
Better pray for Sarah Palin to become President then.
Will Israel lodge a formal protest against Iran for this obvious provocation? Or is Israel too busy apologizing to Egypt because Egypt allowed an attack on Israel from her territoty? Perhaps Israel should apologize to Hizbullah for making them so angry that they plan to provoke a nuclear war — I’m just not PC enough to understand these matters.