Is there any reason to believe that the Obama administration will gamble precious political and diplomatic capital on a new Israeli initiative?
My guess is that Obama won’t. Netanyahu won’t offer enough to give confidence that the deal will lead to an agreement. So why push it. Instead I belive that Israel and the US are working on an interim agreement that has a better chance of succeeding. It is doubtful that such a proposal will deal with final status issues. There is talk of enlarging Area “A”. T. Belman
By Bradley Burston, Haaretz
[..]
Nonetheless, work continues on a new, perhaps a final, Netanyahu peace initiative. Rumor has it, that it could be launched at a joint session of Congress in May. But is there any reason to believe that the Obama administration – whose past tunnel vision on the Mideast, coupled with Israel’s peripheral view, has blinded both sides to possible avenues of progress – will gamble precious political and diplomatic capital on a new Israeli initiative?
There is.
It comes down to Netanyahu. Until now his behavior has seemed a colossal shuck and jive show, masking an inability or a profound unwillingness to move on a peace deal. But now, in Israel, are the tables suddenly starting to turn? That is to say, are signs that for Obama, this time could prove a better bet?
Here are 10.
1. Changes in the Israeli Political Map.
A late February Yediot Ahronot-Dahaf poll showed that if elections were held now, and if former Shas chairman Aryeh Deri ran at the head of a new social affairs-based party, Kadima could supplant Netanyahu and form the next government with 62 to 65 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
At the same time, a Tel Aviv University opinion survey which has monitored public attitudes toward peace since 1994, found that while the majority of Israelis describe themselves as rightist, they have adopted the lion’s share of the positions of the left as to a future accord with the Palestinians: recognition of 1967 lines as the basis of a border, with land exchanges allowing for incorporation of settlement blocs, and recognition of the concept of two states.
“The public, which in the main describes itself as rightist, believes that the greatest failure of this government is the nation’s lack of success in reaching a peace agreement,” said Prof. Ephraim Yaar, co-director of the Peace Index study. Although it agrees with the positions of the left, “The public prefers that the negotiations and an agreement be carried out by the right.”
2. Netanyahu’s inner cabinet is no longer meeting.
The prime minister has often used the Shvi’ya, the hardline-majority septet of senior ministers, as a firewall against diplomatic pressure and as a means of indirectly vetoing concessions on peace related issues.
Netanyahu has refrained from convening the Shvi’ya for an extended period, pumping speculation of a possible break to the left, ala Ariel Sharon.
3. Cracks on the Right.
As hardliners wait to see if Avigdor Lieberman is indicted on money laundering and other charges, an escalation of extremism on the part of some West Bank rabbis and settlement activists has driven wedges in the religious right over a wide range of issues – even over rabbinical support voiced for former president Moshe Katsav, following his conviction for rape.
Other issues include of questions of national authority and sovereignty versus rabbinical edict, specifically the use of force against Israeli soldiers and police sent to dismantle settlements and evict illegal settlers. Dov Wolpe, a radical rabbi, this week said that such security forces had become “the enemy,” and advised that if troops fired riot-control weapons at settler activists, the activists should fire back.
4. Mounting International Isolation of Israel.
Washington’s veto of a UN resolution declaring settlements illegal – a move taken at Israel’s urging – quickly became the most conclusive proof of Israel’s inability to persuade anyone – in particular, Washington – that settlement construction was of any positive value. In the process of voting against the word illegal, the United States put its full weight behind condemnation of settlements as illegitimate.
5. Cracks in Israel’s Diplomatic Corps.
In a number of cases, most kept out of the public eye, career diplomats have complained that the Netanyahu-Lieberman-Yishai government’s stance and actions over peace issues have become indefensible.
Most recently, respected veteran ambassador Ilan Baruch resigned from the foreign service, writing of his difficulty in explain leaders’ statements and actions resisting moves toward peace and an end to occupation.
“A malignant dynamic has formed,” Baruch wrote, “which threatens Israel’s international stance and undermines its legitimacy – not just of the occupation – but of its very membership in the comity of nations.”
Former Foreign Ministry director-general Alon Liel told Army Radio last week that at this point, “more than half” of Israel’s career diplomats disagree with the government’s actions, and that many feel that the government’s policies are leading to unprecedented isolation and de-legitimization of Israel.
6. The Invisibility of the Territories.
The same geographical, physical, and emotional distance which has long allowed Israelis to ignore the reality of occupation as it applies to the Palestinians, now appears to extend also to the settlers, as recent confrontations with Israeli security forces illustrate.
There was scant mainstream Israeli response to the use of painful new riot control weaponry against settlers at the flashpoint Gilad farm outpost. And the apathetic Israeli public reaction to news that the government may take further against illegal outposts and the Hilltop Youth that drive them, bodes poorly for the settlement movement’s expensive new advertising campaign.
7. Backlash, as the Price Tag policy is turned on Jews.
The Price Tag was originally a method of indirect revenge, targeting Palestinians for Israeli anti-settlement measures. Now, as radical pro-settler protests begin to target Jewish Israelis, blocking major intersections and highways in Israel proper, there are mounting signs of backlash and anger.
Meanwhile, demonstrations by pro-Kahane, overtly anti-Arab West Bank rightists in places like Jaffa have prompted Jewish and Arab Israelis to band together in anti-racism counter-demonstrations. Another sign of push-back against radical right “Jews-only housing” campaigns, has been the effort by the Tel Aviv municipality to support the building of affordable housing for Arab residents of Jaffa.
8. J Street and changes in the U.S. Jewish community.
Israeli rightists have long been hopeful that the U.S. Jewish community would turn conservative, pro-Republican, and therefore more pro-settlement and opposed to peace moves.
But young Jews continue to vote Democratic in large numbers, and fresh momentum for pro-Israel activism has been felt mostly on the left, with the arrival of a range of organizations both explicitly in favor of a strongly democratic Jewish state, and strongly anti-occupation and critical of current Israeli government actions: J Street, Americans for Peace Now, the New Israel Fund, Ameinu, Tikkun, Meretz USA, and many others.
9. Israel’s boycott of American Jews is becoming untenable.
Official Israel can no longer afford to boycott, shun, and pretend to ignore the huge proportion of the North American Jewish community which wants to see a truly democratic Israel actively work for a future alongside an independent Palestinian state. Israel can no longer afford to have its ambassador in Washington pander to AIPAC and boycott J Street. Israel can ill afford to alienate and thus lose the support of much of the largest of all Diaspora Jewish communities.
10. Netanyahu himself has changed.
This is the man who once vociferously opposed the ideas of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. In recent statements, however, he has spoken of the specter of the alternative, the “disaster” of a bi-national state, in essence, the end of the state of Israel and of its importance to Jewish peoplehood and culture.
It has become his choice to make.
HAARETS – Jews’ enemy
An extremist “Israeli” lefti media that went overboard in crude hatred of Jews
HAARETZ’s insensitivity for victims of barbaric Arab racism
What did the so-called “Israeli” newspaper Haarets had to say about the sheer cold blooded murder (Itamar massacre: Fogel family butchered while sleeping – Israel – Mar 13, 2011 http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4041237,00.html) by racist Arabs targeting babies?
Nothing, or rather the opposite, the total diversion of the human story.
Next time you hear someone defining this pseudo-media as “Israeli,” think again.
Nor can this media be reliable at all about Israel/Jews, with such “glorious” writers as Gideon Levy, Danny Rubinstein, Amira Haas, Ela Shohat, Sefi Rachlevsky, Zvi Bar’el (or Tom Segev who wrote a [fictitious ] hate book called “An Invention Called ‘The Jewish People”), and others who “cry” racism when Israelis are sincerely anxious for their lives but have nothing to say when the real racists (Arab butchers and their enablers) target Jews, only for being Jews.
Especially lately, Haaretz is undoubtedly obsessed with these two terms “racism” and “fascism” as if Israelis are not motivated by security… diverting the attention from the real issue: Israelis fighting to survive a genocide campaign from Arab-Islamic forces such as: “Palestinians”, Iran/Hezbollah.
Any wonder now, why it’s anti-Jewish bigoted wikipedia users favorire “reference”? Or why Nazi hate sites wave its venemous articles as items of “proof?”
http://haaretzisnotreliable.webs.com Haaretz is NOT reliable!
Rudolph Giuliani was just on Hannity this past week, having just returned from Israel and a private meeting with BB.
He said on national TV that he told BB, “Whatever you do, don’t trust Obama”. Exactly the same advice anyone in this forum would give, of course, but this is unprecedented.
Imagine if say, back in 1978, a public figure of Giuliani’s stature went to Israel to tell PM Begin, “Whatever, you do, don’t trust Carter.”
I agree with Laura’s analysis completely.
Bill Narvey also raises a very pertinent point.
I maintain as I have all along: Netanyahu is not going to give away the store. He’s playing for time until Obama is out of there, which means, on the one hand, that of necessity, he’s going to make conciliatory noises. But at the end of the day, he’ll use the recognition issue – among others, but that is the ‘core firewall’ – to foil any real settlement. The Palestinians are not going to call his bluff on this.
The only question is how much Obama is going to turn up the heat in the next two years.
HaAretz is a prisoner of its goyish wishfull thinking. Long ago they have defined their camp, and that camp isn’t Jewish but goyish or to be more precise: GERMAN, since the HaAretz founder is a assimilated German pro-German Jew who now sold 1/4 of HaAretz to a goyish German company.
The Israli Left is working systematically on their plan to provoke a Jewish civil war. their self-hate has no limit. But their shame when they will eventually fall will have no limit neither.
what ever the left does, it does it out of heddonism. whatever the Kipot Srugot do, they do it out of Mesirut Nefesh – self secrifice. so how can the left ever defeat the right? all the more the left is composed to 50% of homosexuals who will have no descendence….
While I sympathise with BiBi, because you just know he’s getting an international beatdown to give in to even the most irrational demands of the Pukestinians, I think it’s time to replace him with someone who would be willing to tell the would be powers to piss up a rope; of course Jews are probably too nice to do this. The international community continues to overlook the criminality of most of the world’s dictators but they never miss a chance to chastise Israel, the most free nation in the ME.
From article:
So let me understand this reasoning. Predominantly assimilated and detached American Jews, who choose not to reside in Israel and therefore will not have to suffer the consequences of decisions enacted in Israel, should be allowed to call the shots for Israeli Jews.
In light of the following article, were I Israeli I would seriously consider the wisdom of this piece of garbage from Haaretz.
http://www.jpost.com/Features/InThespotlight/Article.aspx?id=211520
I see large scale demonstrations in Judea and Samaria acted out by the Arabs who live there. I also see the Obama administration coming to the aid of these thugs in an attempt to discredit Israel and force her to buckle down to accepting a Palestinian State. Israel needs to stand firm and kick out Netanyahu. He has become a shill for Obama as he chases the almighty dollar.
I don’t believe that most Israelis support the position of the left. This entire article was typical leftist tripe from Haaretz. The political direction of the Jewish community is moving in just the opposite direction of what this article proclaims. I see Jews turning more to the right, both in Israel and America.
These groups have little support and JStreet has become completely discredited.
What’s missing from Burston’s picture? The Palestinians.
Burston is singularly focused on what is happening with Netanyahu and Israel as regards opening opportunities for greater concessions to the Palestinians. He is looking with hopeful eyes to what is happening or possibly happening in the way of some secret deal between Netanyahu and Obama.
In all this Burston has completely ignored:
1. What would Abbas find an acceptable basis for an interim agreement;
2. Even if Abbas liked some deal offered him, he is thus far seen as incapable of delivering on his obligations under any bargain;
3. Intractable Jew/Israel hatred which is the solvent that would cause any interim deal, let alone a final deal to come unglued.
4. Etc. Etc. Etc.
It amazes me that these talking heads who are so focused on what Israel must do for peace, they are oblivious to what Palestinians and other Arabs must do for peace.
Such is the inherent weakness and pointlessness of Burston’s analysis.
Burston’s “list” appears to be a counter to Eldad Tzioni’s “11 Reasons Why Israeli Concessions Will Not Bring Peace” published on the NewsRealBlog.
I vote for Eldad; Palestinian end goals will ensure there is no state no matter how desperately Netanyahu and the left try to give them one.
So why did Netanyahu get rid of the brilliant Uzi Arad? Hint: fig leaf. Netanyahu has gone through a whole cast of supposedly strong right wing assistants over his political career and they mostly proved to be useless. Nothing new under the sun.
So why has he appointed Yaakov Amidror as National Security Head? I have decided not take the background noise on either side as proof of anything.