By Ted Belman
Why would anyone want to enter into negotiations for a settlement of anything, where he had to beg the other party to participate? Even more so, where he had to give real concessions to the other party just to sit at the same table.
What can possible come from such negotiations?
Parties enter negotiations when they want to settle a conflict in whole or in part. Sometimes a party does not seek a settlement of anything but wishes to extract further concessions.
The more one desires a settlement the more they will be taken advantage of. It is for this reason that parties should never show how anxious they are for a settlement. The right posture is to show a reluctance to negotiate.
Netanyahu violated all these axioms and begged for peace and made unilateral concessions. Now that the long awaited direct talks have begun, Israel appears desperate for a settlement and the PA appears only interested in what it can get for nothing.
Already the PA is conditioning its participation on the continuation of the freeze when it expires on Sept 26/10. It is appropriate to understand what is at stake in whether the freeze continues or not.
If the parties believe they can settle the dispute in one year or even two, then whatever can be built within that time span, assuming no freeze, will in no way hinder or impact the agreement.
To date, the PA has shown no desire to get a state. Their only agenda is to destroy Israel, sooner or later. They feel time is on their side with no down side. With the support of Israel and the West, their economy is booming and their financial support keeps flowing. They care nothing about alleviating the plight of their brethren in the refugee camps. But they do care that they not be resettled around the world as this would remove one justification for the struggle. They don’t even want the IDF to get out of the West Bank as they need the IDF to prevent Hamas from taking over. So clearly they have nothing to gain from a settlement and perhaps much to lose. They can only get a demilitarized state that they care nothing for, they would have to make painful concessions on the demand of return and may get killed in the process or get overthrown by Hamas.
Israel, on the other hand, is being demonized and delegitimized in the absence of a settlement so the pressure is on her. But there are limits to what Israel will concede to end the attacks. Israel and her friends have mounted a counter attack to delegitimize the delegitimizors and they are confident of success. Leading the fight are Im Tirtzu, NGO Monitor and Friends of Israel Initiative.
Netanyahu made a big mistake in announcing the freeze ten months ago for Judea and Samaria only and a bigger mistake extending it, de facto, to Jerusalem. It made no difference to the start of negotiations. In fact it allowed Abbas to play around for ten months until its expiry was imminent. At a minimum, Netanyahu should have made the freeze conditional on the start of negotiations. But he didn’t and friends of Israel can’t understand why. But even if he had made it conditional it should have been limited to the same tens months within which period a deal would have to be reached.
The freeze only becomes important if no settlement is expected. From the PA perspective, a permanent freeze would put enormous pressure on Israel. Israel needs to provide for the natural growth within the settlements. Families are growing and thus more bedrooms and classrooms are needed. If they are not provided, the communities will star to break up. Til now, Israel was accommodating the growth of these communities with the provision of roads and other services. Similarly, the settlement blocks grow by at least 20,000 resudents a year. Israel will have to provide housing for these people in Israel and this will require the provision of new infrastructure and planning. Effectively a permanent freeze will require Israel to focus its growth in Israel and will give the PA an enormous victory without any concessions on its part. There would be a great deal of political instability, uncertainty and dislocation.
From Israel’s point of view, building avoids these problems and puts enormous pressure on the PA. The longer the PA waits to cut a deal the more Israel consolidates her hold on the Judea and Samaria. In ten years the present Jewish population living east of the green line would at least double to a total of 1.2 million. The current Arab population east of the greenline, including east Jerusalem is 1.6 million.
The peace process enables the international community and the PA to make demands on Israel. Israel should abandon the peace process and regain her independence. If the international community would have stayed out of it, the conflict would have long ago been solved. The peace process prolongs the conflict because it strengthens the PA to resist. Even more so by creating the PA in the first place and giving voice to the refugees, the situation in Judea and Samaria greatly deteriorated. Prior to Oslo, the local Arabs in Judea and Samaria peacefully coexisted with Israel. Only recently did the situation in Judea and Samaria improve due to policies of the Israeli government and willingness of the PA to cooperate on security matters.
Israel has changed its negotiating priorities for the better. It used to be that Israel pursued diplomacy to reach a deal and then went to the IDF and told them to provide security. Now Netanyahu has reversed this order and is first demanding security. He is demanding that the IDF remain on the Jordan, the new Palestine be demilitarized and Palestine recognize Israel as a Jewish state. The PA is not about to agree to any of these three demands. Such rejection will end the process.
Israel should not limit its demands to security i.e., if she gets all her security demands met would she then agree to the ’67 borders with mutual swaps. Just as Abbas always demands that “Israel end the occupation of Palestinian lands”, Israel should be rejecting the assumption that they are Palestinian lands and should be putting forth the claim that the lands were given to the Jews in San Remo and should be retained by Israel as a result. It used to be, with this in mind, Israel called the lands “disputed”. But not now. It is a huge mistake to not assert her claim to these lands. At a minimum it would take the bite out of the accusation that Israelis are occupiers.
The Partition Plan of ’47 drew borders based on demographics. At a minimum, the same principle should be followed now and for the same reason. A settlement should not require Israel to uproot a massive number of Israelis. The borders should be drawn to minimize the dislocation.
With the end of the peace process, the PA may well return to violence but they will have a lot to lose in terms of their prosperity and freedom of movement. On the other hand with or without the peace process Hamas will keep up the attacks. The same can be expected of Hezbollah. Of course Iran is behind both of them
The US policy is to ignore Iran and pursue solutions in Iraq and Israel as though Iran was not calling the shots. But she is. Iran is the elephant in the room and can not be ignored.
Yuh think so?
Hmmm, I love it! If Israel wants to influence Russia on her deals in the Arab world she has no choice but to compete and buy or barter as much as she can from Russia. I hope we nix the deal for the F-35 and buy the Russian one instead.
Of course there is a political message to the Americans both from Israel and Russia and for the, Arabs and Europeans. We are in a different world where centers of future powers are now shifting. It is best for Israel not to be aligned with anyone but to have good relations with as many nations as possible. The future is in the east.
Barak Meets Putin in Russia, Clinches Military Deals
Russia, Israel sign military cooperation pact
Russia, Israel sign military cooperation pact
Russia, Israel sign military cooperation pact
HWSNBN finally gets onto the green.
An evil group of socialists has always wanted to rule the entire world. In the past conquest has failed to achieve this, due to the resulting outrage and awareness of the enemy. In our present time an evil group are trying a subtle but effective way to rule. This is to gradually infiltrate and delude the masses into accepting their ideas. Such subtle gradualism, along with distraction (such as unnecessary work, study, entertainment and sport) is being used effectively. Few people will therefore be aware of what is going on.
The powerful conspirators are made up largely of the international bankers, and the Illuminati, Saudi oil interests which is a super-rich cartel, which controls the mainstream media, workforce, education system, companies, banks, energy supplies and governments. They are controlled by the richest liberals in the world such as the super-rich George Soros, Rothschild and Rockefeller families. They also hide behind many organizations such as the United Nations, the WTO and the Council on Foreign relations.
These hidden forces are behind Obama. They will dictate who will be the next president, They are almost impossible to counteract because of the power they exert and because they act secretly making decisions which the electorate is unaware of. You cannot fight a group hat most everyone is oblvious of its existence.
Remember the CFL, the trilateral commission, the illuminati, the ONE WORLDERS, the bilderbergers, all powerful liberals that rule the world.
Obama was a Muslim Manchurean candidate, secretly bred and groomed by hidden forces to become President of the Republic, destroy Israel, the U.S. and bring about a second holocaust of the Jewish people.
Fistel:
An evil group of socialists has always wanted to rule the entire world. In the past conquest has failed to achieve this, due to the resulting outrage and awareness of the enemy. In our present time an evil group are trying a subtle but effective way to rule. This is to gradually infiltrate and delude the masses into accepting their ideas. Such subtle gradualism, along with distraction (such as unnecessary work, study, entertainment and sport) is being used effectively. Few people will therefore be aware of what is going on.
The powerful conspirators are made up largely of the international bankers, and the Illuminati, Saudi oil interests which is a super-rich organization, which controls the mainstream media, workforce, education system, companies, banks, energy supplies and governments. They are controlled by the richest people in the world such as the super-rich George Soros, Rothschild and Rockefeller families. They also hide behind many organizations such as the United Nations, the WTO and the Council on Foreign relations.
Obama, a hidden muslim, was a Manchurean candidate, bred secretly for the express purpose to become president of the U.S. and to destroy the Republic from within, emasulate and decimate Israel and all of the Jewish people wherever they are. This fanatic antisemitic, one worlder is in cosmic conflict with the forces of good and virtue. This one true Lucifer is well on his way to establish a one world controlled by the anticapitalist conspiratorial forces that secretly own and direct the world’s wealth, natural resources, and energy resources.
Jewish Israel signs military pact with Russia
This is an interesting new wrinkle, and, given the timing, shows that there is a lot of maneouvering going on.
There are large segments of the American military and intelligence agencies who dislike Jews, don’t trust Jewish Israel, and always suspect them of being in league with Russia. That’s a large part of the reason why the American Jew Jonathan Pollard was given a life sentence (in solitary confinement)(with no apparent chance for parole) for spying against America for the benefit of a supposed American “ally” (Jewish Israel).
Since Obama came into office, the American military has been turning more and more openly against Jewish Israel. General Petraeus publicly mouthed the Obama line that American support for Jewish Israel means that more American soldiers are killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, implying that America’s alliance with Jewish Israel has become more of a liability than an asset.
So it says something when Jewish Israel openly inks a defense pact with Russia a few weeks before the expiration of the settlement freeze.
It may indicate: 1) Jewish Israel warning America that Israel has other options 2) Jewish Israel has actually come to the conclusion that Obama is determined to break off relations with Jewish Israel, and has just been looking for an excuse to do so, so that Israel is now seeking an alternative patron.
BB has not caved to Obama pressure, The building freeze was in effect the day he took office from Olmert. BB has caved to Barak more than anything. He looks to stay in power by divide and at least keep any political opposition to him from the right or the left quaking with the thought of loss of political power and not allow any opposition to raise it’s head.. This is less a left /right contest than a couple of megalomaniacs seeking to stay stay in office by any means. They work in tandem and even when there seems to be a dispute between them this is for inter-party consumption. Barak and BB go way back. Barak was a close friend of Yoni the dead hero of Entebbe. Barak was BB’s commander in Israels most elite commando group. Both have a public persona but the private one is hidden from the public re: their close relationship.
BB is not threatened within the Likud ranks and his only challenge is to keep his left right coalition together. By adopting the Kadima platform more or less Keeps livni out of the running and the right in their usual disarray muttering to themselves. BB will do what he is told to do by those who control him and it isn’t Obama. (Follow the money is always a prudent rule when things look muddled and incomprehensible when one tries to figure what our politicians are up too.
My gut tells me BB and Barak planned this caper long before the last elections and together are implementing it like their previous commando training taught them. Focus on the objective and execute to the letter the overall plan till objective has been achieved. They are Using Hussein Obama as the overall excuse to justify what they have been doing, mainly preparing to give away the Jewish heartland. Why is another story.
Respectfully, I doubt it. For example, Netanyahu could always insist as part of any deal that Abbas et al recognize Israel as a Jewish state. It’s very unlikely that Abbas will go along with that and even if he did, his government would probably fall apart. Similarly, Netanyahu could easily tie up Abbas in endless negotiations about which towns and neighborhoods will end up where.
The fact is that it’s not too hard to kill a deal when the other side doesn’t want a deal. Even if Abbas really does want a deal, his days are numbered. Especially so if he manifests wanting a deal.
Personally, I’ve been in many negotiations where there was no realistic chance of a negotiated settlement and this seems like such a negotiation to me.
Charles, I have been saying this for some time. He is a fraud, a puppet of George Soros and company. He will bring nothing to the table but problems and grief. I said a few times the PM should not have gone to Washington, it’s nothing but a farce supported by Hilary, (wife of I didn’t have sex with that girl and I didn’t inhale)another worthless cuss. The PM has to wait until after the election and then hopefully work with a new conservative house and senate.
Charles, your right again. Let’s be factual the PA is really governed by Hamas, the proxy of Iran and the Arab terrorist world. These guys are not looking for peace. They want to kill Jews and control Israel, in the meantime they hope to continue to pick up as much territory the Israeli government is willing to give up.
The Israeli government and the PM better realize that G-d provided the Jews with the Holy Land and He is not interested in giving to anyone else, so a word to the wise, continue community building and there cannot be a divided Jerusalem. Start getting tough.
Yes as mentioned above, in addition and I know Uncle Nahum (Yamit)doesn’t support me on this but, Israel needs one supper PR program in the US to bring the truth to the American people. Just the other day a friend came by the office and I played the two videos “I am Israel” and “Israel defying all odds” and he was amazed and was not aware what Israel is up against. If I can impress one individual with the message just imagine what a super PR program could do, in addition to awakening the liberal American Jews. The time for them to come home to their faith is now.
Obama has demonstrated that he cannot be trusted on any commitment to Israel. He couldn’t be trusted to honor the Bush letter to Sharon, i.e., guaranteeing Israel defensible borders. He cannot be trusted to attack Iran in time. He cannot be trusted to allow Israel overflight rights in the event of an Israeli attack. He cannot even be trusted to resupply Israel in the event of war. That means Obama brings nothing of value to the table for Israel – just existential risk.
There is no point in negotiating with someone who brings nothing of value to the table. And let’s be honest, Netanyahu is not negotiating with a puppet government called the “PA” or a leader who has no power and will be dead before the ink dries on any deal. He is negotiating with Obama. He is opening the door for a president who is innately hostile to a Jewish sovereign, immensely unpopular in America, and consequently vulnerable to an Israeli refusal to cooperate in surrender talks. At a minimum, Netanyahu should have put off talks until after the November elections when he’d have an opportunity to plead Israel’s case directly to a sympathetic Congress.
The problem with Sabril and Fistel’s theory that Netanyhau is simply playing poker is that Abbas or Obama can always call Bibi’s bluff and then it’s game over for Israel: Netanyahu will have given away the store.
Netanyahu continues to keep us guessing:
I believe most of is have come around to the conclusion that Netanyahu deliberately confuses us about his beliefs and values (in fact, does he even have any?), in order to keep his options open until the last minute.
One school says that he is a closet leftist, working with Ehud Barak to surrender Israel and destroy the settlers. Another says he is a rightist, but weak and cowardly, so that in the end he always gives in to American “pressure”. But Netanyahu and Barak are now making deals with the Russian military. Does this signal a shift away from America?
And then there is Avigdor Lieberman. Netanyahu uses him and Barak as “good cop, bad cop”. Barak signals that Netanyahu is ready to surrender east Jerusalem. Then Lieberman signals there will be no continuation of the freeze, and that the peace talks are a sham.
It is all very murky. Are the three of them working together and playing a game with the world? Is Lieberman the odd man out? Is he signalling that he will bring down the Netanyahu government because he thinks he is now strong enough to form a right wing government of his own with him as Prime Minister?
I once thought that the people of Israel knew something that those of us outside of Israel do not. But that is clearly not the case. The Israelis are as unsure of the true intentions of their elected “democratic” government as the rest of us are.
I basically agree. I’m a litigation attorney and one thing I’ve learned over the years is that you don’t bid against yourself. If the other fellow wants you to cut your settlement demand, he needs to increase his offer. When you bid against yourself it destroys your credibility as a negotiator. It invites the other fellow to demand that you make even more concessions without giving anything in return.
Of course, the reality here is that Netanyahu knows perfectly well that there will be no deal. He just wants to look reasonable to Obama and to demonstrate that it’s the Arab side which is unreasonable.
Anyway, I agree that fundamentally, the Arabs are not interested in doing a deal. From their point of view, it’s better to wait and see if the delegitimazation campaign against Israel succeeds in demoralizing Israel to the point where they start getting what they want without giving anything in return. Or to see if they can swamp the Jews demographically. Ironically, when Obama and the West pressure Israel and kiss up to the Arabs, it reduces the chance of a peace deal by emboldening the Arab side to be even more intransigent.
What I meant was that it includes Arabs in East Jerusalem.
Huh?
This is the first step in any new disengagement, i.e., ethnic cleansing of Jews from J&S. Netanyahu has to initially make it unpalatable for Jews to live there.