Peloni: Peace thru strength requires the presence of, and willingness to, employ strength to establish peace.
Seth Frantzman tweeted the following in regards to news of Hamas’ bad faith negotiations:
Let’s be honest here. Hamas was told by its hosts and backers to keep the hostages. Hamas goal is to hold them for years maybe up to five or ten years releasing a few at a time. Their backers in Doha and Ankara have calculated that this will bring Hamas to power in the West Bank after Abbas passes. Hamas is laying the groundwork now with PIJ in Jenin, Tulkarm and other areas for this.
Israel has chosen to stay in Netzarim and Rafah but not remove Hamas from Gaza, a calculated approach that goes back to 2007. In this situation there is no pressure for a deal.
Some assert that once Trump comes into office there will be some magic wand that will result in a deal. It’s possible but not that likely. Trump’s previous admin couldn’t get Austin Tice out of Syria. It’s not that easy to get people released in deals. It’s even harder when the group holding the hostages is backed by U.S. allies who have many friends in the U.S.
We have to understand the Hamas lobby is very large. Hamas is far more powerful than the Assad regime was in terms of having friends in high places via its backers. Hamas is more powerful than Hezbollah because it’s not confined to a Shi’ite and Iranian-backed sectarianism. It has broad support, even more since Oct 7.
Israel’s best chance at defeating it was a quick war and use of force to free hostages or gradually replacing it in Gaza with the PA and squeezing it until it gave up hostages. Instead it got less intense war in January 2024 and has been under less pressure since. It runs a mini-state in central Gaza. There is no real push in Israel to remove Hamas from Gaza. There is some push for a deal but it’s not enough to get it done and Hamas doesn’t want a deal, it has purposely sabotaged deals.
Sadly this is where things stand. Without a military solution to eviscerate Hamas and extirpate it, there won’t likely be enough progress and it’s not clear Trump’s arrival will have the assumed magic touch. Of course one can be hopeful. But one must also have military force as the alternative not just more appeasement of Hamas
Every time I hear about a ‘deal’ I lose it. There is no deal and never was.
The only deal should be that the IDF flattens Gaza. I was hoping that they would have done it on Oct 8. But my hopes fell flat (like Gaza should have been). As I and so many others predicted, the longer this war goes on, the less likely the hostages will be saved. Well it’s gone on for far too long. WTF is going on there? I really don’t get it. Can someone please explain it to me?
I’ve read article upon article about the incredible defeats that Israel has handed to all of their enemies. To Iran (the head of the snake) and to all of it’s proxies (Hamas, Hezbolla, Syria…). So why the delay? Why are they not taking out the ayatolla (or better yet, kidnap him and use him to exchange the hostages with), Iran’s nuclear facilities, oil wells, ports and other important targets? I’m shocked that if the hostages are in fact still in Gaza, that the IDF can’t find them and save them.
Perhaps issue an ultimatum: Give up the hostages or we’ll seal Gaza. No more food or water coming in. When they are finally truly starving (rather than the ongoing fake starving), they’ll give them up. I realize that these options I’ve provided sound simplistic. The world will despise Israel for such responses. I don’t care. Israelis shouldn’t care. We are despised no matter what we do.