FDD | Sept 19, 2024
Latest Developments
Israeli media reported on September 18 that the week-long ceasefire in November — which saw Hamas release 81 Israeli hostages — collapsed after the terrorist group relayed false information about the captives it was due to release on the eighth day of the deal. Hamas was reportedly supposed to free 10 living hostages on that day but instead offered to return three living hostages and seven bodies. Among the purported dead were female hostages that Israel “knew for certain” were alive, indicating that Hamas would execute the women if Israel agreed to the terror group’s updated terms.
“If we played their game, we made clear to the political echelon, Hamas would murder the women,” a senior Israeli security source stated. “If we’d allowed them to play us, we’d never have seen those women again.” One of the supposed corpses that Hamas offered to return was Noa Argamani, whom Israeli forces rescued alive in June.
Expert Analysis
“Over recent weeks, those closely involved with the negotiations — including Israel’s top hostage negotiator Gal Hirsch — have offered insights into some of the painful dilemmas Israel has faced during the negotiations and some of the tough concessions that Jerusalem has been willing to make. What has become clear is that Hamas has peddled misinformation about the negotiations and used the failed negotiations as a wedge to sow distrust and exacerbate divisions within Israeli society.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Program
“A hostage release deal incentivizes Iranian proxies to take additional hostages, releases terrorists with blood on their hands, and ensures that Hamas can again carry out attacks on Israeli civilians. On top of that, Hamas was lying and might have killed hostages to return them as lifeless bodies. The hostages should be freed, but doing so comes at a terrible cost.” — David May, FDD Research Manager and Senior Research Analyst
Israel Proposes Single-Phase Deal
Israeli negotiator Gal Hirsch is spearheading a new ceasefire framework that would see Hamas free all the remaining hostages at once — instead of in three phases — in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, a permanent end to the war, and Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar’s safe passage out of Gaza. The plan, which Hirsch reportedly presented to the Biden administration last week, also envisions a new governance structure in a demilitarized Gaza. However, the so-called “safe passage deal” or “Plan B” proposal is likely a non-starter for Hamas, and it is unclear whether the Israeli negotiating team is lending it serious weight.
November Ceasefire
Hamas released 81 Israeli hostages during a week-long pause in November in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Additionally, Hamas released 23 Thai nationals, one Filipino, and three Israeli-Russian dual citizens under separate arrangements with Bangkok, Manila, and Moscow. The pause collapsed on December 1 when Hamas refused to provide a list of the remaining women and children in captivity and resumed launching rockets at Israel. Approximately 101 hostages remain in Gaza, 64 of whom Israel believes are still alive.
“Blinken Departs Middle East Without Ceasefire Deal,” FDD Flash Brief
“Hamas Shuns New Talks on Gaza Ceasefire,” FDD Flash Brief
“Biden Announces Israeli Ceasefire Proposal to End Gaza War,” FDD Flash Brief
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