INSS Insight No. 1850, May 2, 2024
Although Hezbollah and Iran are not yet interested in a large-scale war, Israel’s campaign against Lebanon could escalate under two main scenarios: (1) If Hezbollah continues to fight against Israel as long as the war in Gaza persists or if Iran requests that the Lebanese-based group becomes more involved in its campaign against Israel; (2) If Israel launches an extensive operation that ignores the “rules of engagement” with Hezbollah, aiming to change the security situation on the northern border and facilitate the return of the Israelis who were evacuated from their homes.
For Israel, it is crucial to continue damaging Hezbollah’s military capabilities until a ceasefire is achieved. At the same time, Israel must make an effort to promote a diplomatic arrangement with Lebanon to improve the security situation on the northern front and to enable the evacuees to return home, which would delay the possibility of a broader conflict until a more appropriate time.
Even though the ongoing and intense fighting on Israel’s northern border since October 8 resembles a war of attrition, one question remains: Will it escalate into a full-scale war in which Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will deploy all the weapons at his disposal and threaten the Israeli home front? Despite the war being limited in terms of the geographical areas affected and types of weapons used, the intensity and severity of the attacks have escalated, as well as the growing damage on both sides.
Hezbollah’s modus operandi, which also influences the actions of other players from Lebanon fighting against Israel—Lebanese and Palestinians alike—in coordination with the Iranian-led axis of resistance, demonstrates that the organization aims to maintain a restricted low-level intensity in the conflict. This strategy is meant to keep the IDF occupied on the Lebanon border in what Nasrallah recently referred to as “the Palestinian solidarity front.” Hezbollah seeks to impede Israel’s efforts to achieve its stated goals in the war in the Gaza Strip and to bring it to an end. The organization, which is careful not to escalate the fighting against Israel, has been utilizing short-range weapons. However, in January 2024, it also started employing the Almas, an advanced antitank guided missile, manufactured by Iran, as well as the Burkan ballistic missiles and the Falaq, a short-range missile capable of carrying a large payload—causing more extensive damage. In recent weeks, Hezbollah has also increased its use of offensive UAVs, which also have a relatively limited range. Although the organization has not expanded the range of its missile attacks, it does so in response to an unusual operation by the Israeli military. In its daily reports, Hezbollah claims that it only launches attacks against Israeli military targets and that it only deviates from that modus operandi in response to civilian casualties caused by IDF operations.
Hezbollah drone attack in Arab al-Aramsha in the north, April 17, 2024
An analysis of the current balance of power between the warring parties shows that, despite the conflict’s limited scope, Hezbollah can boast about several achievements, which Nasrallah highlights in his speeches. These include binding the IDF to the northern front in an effort to exhaust it; causing damage to IDF positions and bases; downing several Israeli UAVs; destroying infrastructure, civilian buildings, residential homes, and agricultural farms along the border; and causing Israeli fatalities, albeit in small numbers—21 Israelis have been killed so far, including 12 soldiers. However, Hezbollah’s greatest accomplishment was actually the Israeli government’s decision to evacuate 43 communities along the border (around 60,000 people) during the first few days of the war, resulting in the establishment of a nearly uninhabited stretch of land in northern Israel for the first time since 1948.
At the same time, due to the IDF’s aerial superiority and active air defense systems, as well as its strategy of preemptive attacks, Israel has inflicted more damage to Hezbollah and the other factions involved in the campaign, and Israel is controlling the escalation. The IDF has conducted widespread strikes against infrastructure, military facilities, headquarters, and weapons depots belonging to Hezbollah, including multiple strikes deep inside Lebanese territory (in Baalbek and the Tyre region). According to the IDF’s Spokesperson’s Unit, over the past six months, some 5,000 targets in Lebanon have been destroyed, and Israel has thwarted many infiltration attempts and missile launches from its neighbor to the north. Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, with the organization reporting that more than 275 fighters have been killed, including senior officers and seven high-ranking members of the Radwan Force special operations unit, as well as several senior Hamas members. It is likely that the actual number is even higher. It appears that members of the Radwan Force have withdrawn from the border area and have also sustained losses due to frequent Israeli airstrikes in Syria targeting fighters and weapons en route from Iran to Hezbollah.
As for the possibility that Hezbollah will escalate the fighting as part of a planned strategy or as an opportunistic response to the fighting in the Gaza Strip, it is increasingly clear that the organization is not interested in doing so. This assessment is based on Hezbollah’s limited military activity and on the public statements made by Nasrallah and other leaders. The factors restraining Hezbollah have not changed. They include Iran’s position to safeguard most of the organization’s capabilities for its own purposes and to wage a war of attrition against Israel to ensure its defeat in the war in Gaza. Additionally, American involvement alongside Israel and the concern of a regional war involving Iran and the United States also act as deterrents. Hezbollah is also concerned about potential damage and losses, as well as the impact on both the loyal Lebanese Shiite population and the state of Lebanon as a whole should an all-out war occur (while the situation in Gaza serves as a stark reminder of Israel’s destructive power and its willingness to use it). Furthermore, the element of surprise has been lost due to the IDF’s planning and readiness on the northern front and the evacuation of Israeli communities along the Lebanon border.
Despite the apparent alignment between Hezbollah and the transitional government in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s opponents within Lebanon have become increasingly vocal as the war continues. They argue that Hezbollah is dragging Lebanon into a war in which it has no interest, endangering the already struggling country. Lebanon has been in the throes of a deep economic crisis for many years, exacerbated by a political vacuum. Since May 2022, the country has been governed by a transitional government and has been without a president since October of that year. This criticism is shared by a large segment of the Lebanese population. Three months ago, a new Shiite political party was even launched in opposition to Hezbollah. Notably, leaders of all the Christian parties, including the largest one, the Free Patriotic Movement, which was previously aligned with the pro-Hezbollah camp, have publicly criticized Hezbollah. During an iftar meal on April 5, Gebran Bassil, the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, stated that anyone who believed Israel could be defeated was wrong and emphasized that the Lebanese people were against war. At a press conference on April 10, he even called for international and regional actors to work toward a ceasefire in southern Lebanon, irrespective of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, directly opposing Hezbollah’s position.
Dissatisfaction and criticism of the situation are particularly pronounced among residents of villages in southern Lebanon. Over 90,000 people have been forced from their homes and relocated to the north. Both those who have remained in their homes and those who have been displaced have sustained heavy damage to their property and are experiencing economic difficulties due to the conflict. Infrastructure has been destroyed, schools have closed, large agricultural areas and forests have been decimated, and more than 50 civilians have been killed. Furthermore, as Asharq Al-Awsat published on March 26, residents of the Christian village of Rmeish have objected to Hezbollah’s use of their lands to launch attacks against Israel and tried to prevent Hezbollah from doing so. During a cabinet meeting of the transitional government on April 4, the prime minister announced his intention to declare southern Lebanon as an “agricultural emergency zone” and seek international aid. He relayed that the agricultural sector had suffered a significant blow from the war, with 75 percent of Lebanese farmers losing their income. The minister of agriculture estimated the damage at billions of dollars.
Nonetheless, we cannot rule out the possibility of a widespread war breaking out and potentially escalating into a full-scale conflict involving other members of the Iranian-backed axis of resistance. Such a war would be devastating and costly for all those involved. There are two main scenarios that could lead to this outcome. The first scenario is based on the assessment that the current dynamics of the fighting, which is continually escalating, could inadvertently result in uncontrolled escalation. This is especially true given that Hezbollah links the ongoing fighting on the Israel–Lebanon border with the Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip. Nasrallah and other Hezbollah officials have repeatedly stated that they will only stop attacking Israel if Israel ends its war in Gaza. Additionally, if Iran demands that Hezbollah intensifies its operations in the event of expanding the direct confrontation between Tehran and Jerusalem. However, it should be noted that Iran was discouraged by Hezbollah’s limited involvement in the Iranian attack against Israel on April 13, indicating that the Lebanese organization aims to preserve its independent decision-making in accordance with the line that Nasrallah has presented in his speeches, whereby Iran can respond to any Israeli attack against it. During Iran’s missile and UAV attack on Israel, Hezbollah carried out limited attacks on Israeli aerial defense systems on the Golan Heights but claimed that it was a response to an earlier Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.
The second scenario depends on Israel’s decision to initiate a broader operation that would violate the “rules of engagement” in the fighting so far in order to change the security reality on the northern front. Alternatively, once most of the fighting in Gaza is concluded, Israel could prioritize removing the threat posed by Hezbollah on its northern border, or due to an urgent need, allow the evacuated Israelis to return to their homes in this area.
As long as the fighting continues and there is no ceasefire, it is crucial for Israel to focus on maximizing damage to Hezbollah and attempt to change the rules of the game that it is trying to control. At the same time, Israel must maintain an ongoing dialogue with the US administration to capitalize on the opportunity for advancing a political resolution, in line with the proposals discussed with American envoy Amos Hochstein.
The agreement being put together outlines a gradual solution. In the first stage, the fighting would cease, and Hezbollah would withdraw to positions several kilometers away from the border. There would also be greater supervision on the Lebanese side of the border to prevent Hezbollah operatives from returning to the border zone, allowing residents on both sides to safely return to their homes. In the second stage, negotiations would focus on the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 and the demarcation of the land border.
Hezbollah may be amenable to this proposal if there is a pause in the fighting in the Gaza Strip and if its implementation could lead to an improved security reality, enabling the return of the evacuees to their homes. In addition, to increase their sense of security, measures such as adjusting the IDF’s deployment along the border, strengthening the security elements in local communities, and improving the passive defense for residents should be considered.
Given the conditions created by the war in Gaza, it is preferable for Israel to avoid a large-scale war with Hezbollah. Israel should postpone any attempts to remove the threat posed by Hezbollah until a later date. However, should there be further escalation in the direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah will likely be compelled to enter a campaign that could change the cautious and measured way it has handled the conflict with Israel thus far.
“Rules of engagement” apply ONLY to Israel!!!!!!!!!
The US Intel withheld a lot of INFO from Trump, the President!!!!!
Even Pompeo is to some extent compromised. CIA chief and Secretary of State under Trump. And he knew nothing about the “agissements” against his boss!!!!
Zorn-
On top of all your repulsive actions, you are a dirty stinking filthy liar, not to be honoured by a reply. So don’t regard this as one. You are just fit to be scooped up with a brush and consigned to a cess pit.
This thread is ended.
@Edgar I never alluded to your mother. In fact, I never even suggested you had one, but, rather merely to your putative introductory rustic venue judging from the course nature of your remarks describing moi to your fellow Irish pal, Felix with whom it is in fact, you, the dastardly duo, who have been ganging up on poor little me, thinking no doubt, it’s without a price. 😀
Honeybee-
It’s not normally like you to be ” ganging up” on a seriously minded fellow like Felix. He doesn’t argue with you but gives his honest opinion. Being Irish and a gentleman, he may seem formal and pompous to you, as I likely also do, but it is purely old world manners.
He and I come from the same milieu. Which is why we understand one another., even if not politically.
Sebastien tries to make crude, nasty, commonplace so called jokes for lack of real intellignce.
Bastien-
It’s about time you stopped giving yourself the phony “thumbs up” and turned honest.
your remark about my revered mother are vulgar and common-like you.
@Honeybee Felix seems to be under the impression that Israel is the 51st state of the U.S.
@Felix Please excuse Edgar. Apparently, his mother never taught him it’s rude to speak of somebody in front of you in the third person. He was raised in a Barn. 😀
(publisher’s note: at first, I “liked” Edgar’s comment just now to Felix until I realized he wasn’t talking to me about Felix. 😀 )
FELIX-Seb passes a lot of gas, most of it noxious and pure babble, looking to someone to praise his wit, or absent acumen
He can be ignored , no need to respond seriously to his 1970’s pseudo-jokes.
Felix Rest assured I will never take the title of “Pompous Ass” from you.
@
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/claque
Edgar
It is not a communication I have with him. Time and time again his aim is to cut me down.
And my line has been affirmed as not silly. Some are calling for Netanyahu to address the Senate.
I said
“Israel is not only fighting a war which is against Hamas
Israel is in now in stark visible reality fighting a war which is against Hamas plus Biden”.
That’s a very big concept to put before the American people.
In this Trump is a strong ally
And it has many other angles. It does concern the hounding of Serbs in the 90s, threats to Putin, the legal war on trump and the threats to Jews especially to Netanyahu again this time by the ICC. A rerun of Hitler through the 1930s.
FELIX-
Sebastien blows a lot of hot air-from one or the other end. Trump did not say he hated Netanyahu. He said he had a “bad experience” with him, and then explained what it was. Trump is far above such nonsense. .The “bad experience” does not outweigh a 25 year close personal friendship.
Zorn is far below such understanding.
Sebastien Zorn writes
“Trump hates Netanyahu. He just called for his removal in almost so many words. Trump has been a great friend to Israel but he doesn’t seem to understand that An Israeli head of state can’t take sides in American politics and neither do you, clearly.”
When an ex president does what biden does he certainly can.
An Israeli leader can say whatever he wants if it tells the truth.
And if you think that the treatment of the Serbs and the trials of the Serbs and the murder by the ICC of Milosevic are not relevant in this present world then that tells a lot.
I see that today Israpundit makes a correct demand that Biden condemns the ICC threat on Netanyahu
I agree with that and would urge it be followed up.
Honeybee
Felix Darlin, you Must remember, YOU AIN’T GOT NO SKIN IN THE GAME
Of course I have. Everyone and everything has a day in everything that is happening on this earth
Are you rewriting the rules of the American constitution?
Are you that pompous?
@Felix You are making straw man arguments. You said Netanyahu should meet with Trump to discuss the railroading of Trump. Trump hates Netanyahu. He just called for his removal in almost so many words. Trump has been a great friend to Israel but he doesn’t seem to understand that An Israeli head of state can’t take sides in American politics and neither do you, clearly.
Felix Darlin, you Must remember, YOU AIN’T GOT NO SKIN IN THE GAME.
To sum up
Israel is not only fighting a war which is against Hamas
Israel is in now in stark visible reality fighting a war which is against Hamas plus Biden
Therefore to win and survive the power of Biden must be defeated
Consequently a unity with Trump is on the cards
This battle must be placed on display asap in the centre of American political life which is Congress.
Zorn says no must not go there.
I see no other way.
Who is right on this will decide if Israel will win and survive
PS
Chrome phone
I write seeks
Chrome writes seems
But the general line is
Defence of Netanyahu is unconditional
With that as basis development this discussion.
Free discussion is part of defence against the ICC.
So what is in Israel’s interest…as you put it
Which you say Netanyahu is on top of
But unlike you I don’t think he’s on top of and you Zorn are running a mile from.
But you are seeking to close down the discussion
I am discussing. You seem to close me down. As does the woman with the poisonous tongue from Texas
So I’m non Jewish. Big deal. That doesn’t rule me out on this.
The centre of the problem is that Israel seems to smash Hamas to survive.
On the other hand Biden and Blinken want Israel to fail to smash Israel. They want Israel to lose badly.
So that’s the issue that has to be settled in front of the American people…the ordinary people
Biden and Blinken implicated up to their eyeballs
I say Biden is your total enemy
I say work with trump.
You bring this to the level of the most base pettiness as I described
Must not go out on a plank
How else can Biden be defeated
You are cutting the ground from under Israel and it is downright disgusting to me
You and your Jewish woman there are no friend of Israel. A middle headed person. An enemy in reality.
I see that latter as a real possibility.
Your betrayal of Israel is contained in these two cowardly paragraphs which seems Biden as an all powerful thing and dismiss the greatness of the Jews and also trump and his American people
“What’s more, if Bibi wasn’t afraid of enraging the already wavering sitting U.S. President, he would have already ordered the IDF to go into Rafah, would he not?”
Even if Israel could interfere in American elections without getting seriously burned. Especially rigged banana republic style elections.”
End disgraceful quote
Get Netanyahu to directly address Congress the seat of American power and defeat these Antisemites Biden and Blinken
Sebastien Zorn
So you disagree with what I wrote.
And therefore I am supposed to have read everything
And if I did read it I have comprehension problems
Anything else you’d like to add to my problems
I think just a little self awareness on your part is called for
This is now a very great problem and has strong links with the trial by the ICC destroying Yugoslavia
Which you despicably do not take up
You are ignoring the biggest historical lesson
And reference trump the best ever president for Zionism
“Going out on a limb”
Is that the level of your thinking on this
Like you think of that as kind of a career move
How sordid.
We are not talking about this on the same level. You simply have zero to offer for the survival of Israel NOW in may 2024
But in your pomposity you cannot grasp that
And I desperately want to separate myself from your nonsensical ramblings.
@Felix You didn’t read the article. Either that, or your reading comprehension is problematic. It says that in this interview, Trump accused him of responsibility for October 7th and a whole host of other failures. It’s an unadulterated attack. When asked about Ganz as a potential PM, all he said was that he thought he was competent. Are you saying that knowing this, you are calling for Bibi to go out on a limb for him, everything else aside?
Sebastien Zorn
Felix I guess you missed this from 2 days ago.
https://www.jns.org/trump-netanyahu-has-been-rightfully-criticized-for-oct-7-massacre/
You guess wrong. I am in defence of Netanyahu in this war.
I do not blame him for October 7 at all.
I blame the traitors who were pulling him down.
I do not understand how you interpreted me in what I said as being critical or more especially attacking Netanyahu.
The opposite.
I am defending Netanyahu against the ICC
I am also bringing into the picture the Yugoslavia experience and the ICC trials of all these brave Serb leaders.
My defence of these Serb leaders (of whom I have ever heard you speak) is unconditional
My defence of Netanyahu is also unconditional
Please stop messing with my statements.
If something is not clear just ask me what’s not clear.
Not just Jews. We are all in this together.
Honeybee
Forget the sweetie stuff to me I am not your sweetie
Deal with the CONTENT of what I said and give or do not give your political opinion. I couldn’t care less one way or the other
Felix, Sweetie, you MUST stop telling Israelis/Jews what they MUST do.
@Felix I guess you missed this from 2 days ago.
https://www.jns.org/trump-netanyahu-has-been-rightfully-criticized-for-oct-7-massacre/
What’s more, if Bibi wasn’t afraid of enraging the already wavering sitting U.S. President, he would have already ordered the IDF to go into Rafah, would he not?
Even if Israel could interfere in American elections without getting seriously burned. Especially rigged banana republic style elections.
He just did speak to Republicans in Congress but not about that.
Here’s an idea, Bibi should negotiate with Russian, Ukrainian, and Chinese leaders after meeting and strategizing with their persecuted internal political enemies. Sounds pretty silly, right? Bibi’s a diplomat. Bennett or Lapid might do that. Not with the U.S., of course. Ganz would also do whatever Biden tells him to.
Bibi can and will only speak for Israel’s interests. He’s said so repeatedly.
Netanyahu must with trump immediately address
1. The lawfare being conducted against Trump
2. The ICC attacks against Netanyahu and Israel
Republicans invite Netanyahu to address Congress on these points NOW
Every Israeli must understand that there are two ways of being critical of Netanyahu.
1. From patriotic side
2. From dangerous traitorous side
The former is urgently called for and goes along with defence of Netanyahu against traitors .
At every point Israel must be totally independent and state. Clear the reality
And again by what process was Karim Khan allowed in (see pic)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68938022
Wait for Trump presidency.
The mention of rules of engagement is somewhat confusing: on one hand, there are the ever mentioned “international rules of war” which claim to be conceived to make sure that there is no attack on the civilian population. (What about the Israeli population?) Then there is the rule of engagement that many of Israel’s “allies” require that humanitarian aid be provided to the enemy including water, food, fuel, electric power and medical assistance. Then there is the rule of engagement not to completely destroy the enemy’s infrastructure.
While all of the above may seem logical and humanitarian, what about Israel’s needs? The USA has convinced Israel by various means, mostly some form of “gentle” coercion, to depend on the USA for its military needs while provided the ultimate testing ground for these products. On the other hand, Israel’s hands are tied in the Israeli production of advanced military products to the point that the USA can threaten an arms embargo if Israel doesn’t play by the specially invented so-called rules of engagement that have no other purpose than to prolong the war to continue generating a need for military supplies while improving the testing. Israel is not even allowed to sell the products it designs and builds if there is anything in them that could be conceived as going against the USA interests.
One of the main intentions of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip is to get the hostages back and punish the Gazans for daring to grab the hostages from Israeli territory, and to punish the Gazans for continuing to fire missiles of all sorts into Israeli territory. While Israeli news media are happy to report that no or limited damage was done to Israelis and their assets, it has a downside that the rest of the world feels that their was no damage done – therefore no need to respond, not to speak of punishing those who keep firing missiles into Israel from behind an all too willing human shield. The human shield participants know that if one of them is killed in such an Israeli response, an investigation will be required from the UNSC to find out who did it, who could be made responsible, and how reparations can be enforced, all while ignoring Israel’s task of punishing the initiators. Any thought of accounting for Israel’s efforts to avoid the damage intended by each war crime missile is discarded on the basis of no damage, no need for reparation. The idea that all this protection of Israeli citizens and property costs a lot of money and effort is simply ignored. It is only when missiles are flying in the opposite direction that this becomes an issue.
The UNSC sheds all responsibility for the current situation and the best example is the situation in southern Lebanon, where an UNSC resolution (1701) has placed an ineffective UN peace-keeping forces on the border between Lebanon and Israel with the mandate to keep military forces away from the Israeli border and, as in their name, keep the peace. In this task, the only slight success for the UN forces was to stand in the way of Israeli forces attempting to protect Israeli citizens from the ever recurring attempts by Hezbollah to grab Israeli hostages across the border through their tunnel system. Of course, when Israel does react to these attacks, there is the usual commotion at the UNSC to demand that Israel cease and desist.
It is time for Israel to reach the conclusion that only a determined military action against the 100,000 to 200,000 missiles waiting to be fired into Israel from Lebanon will bring even a modicum of peace. Of course, the short-cut would be to attack the head of the snake, but the USA would put their maximum effort into nullifying this endeavor to the extent of trying to shoot down Israeli F35s on their way to carry out their mission. Such “allies” Israel has!